Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

5. Winston likes throwing to Brate

When O.J. Howard is hurt...

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2 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

George Kittle, and cannot believe more people aren't talking about this. Dude is a great player, no doubt, but the perfect storm of variables that came together for him last year were eerily similar to Evan Engram's rookie season. The guy was virtually the only player that was targeted on that team--Kendrick Bourne was second on the team in targets with 67. McKinnon never played a snap and is back this year, Marquis Goodwin missed 5 games and went from 105 targets the year before to 44 last year, Dante Pettis totaled only 45 targets with virtually all of them coming in the last 6 games (he will be a much bigger factor all season this year) and the niners added Tevin Coleman in free agency and spent significant draft capitol on Deebo Samuel and Jalen Hurd. Add in a new QB in Jimmy G and I just don't think we will see Kittle come close to his target share from last season. It's not to say he still isn't a high-end TE1, because he most certainly is, but I would not be surprised in the slightest to see OJ outperform him if he stays healthy.

I think you're completely missing that Kittle played with C.J Beathard and Nick Mullens.  You can't possibly expect him to play worse with "a new QB" when that QB is clearly better. 

 

Even if his target share goes down you're forgetting there will be more targets in general because the punter won't always be on the field.  Also the quality of each target will be better.

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think you're completely missing that Kittle played with C.J Beathard and Nick Mullens.  You can't possibly expect him to play worse with "a new QB" when that QB is clearly better. 

 

Even if his target share goes down you're forgetting there will be more targets in general because the punter won't always be on the field.  Also the quality of each target will be better.

 

Kittle is just a better player than Engram too. That helps.

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35 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Since this is the OJ Howard thread let’s focus on #5. Could you please expound on the significance of “Winston likes throwing to Brate” with regards to OJ Howards historical, statistical success, or lack thereof, while playing alongside Brate? 

 

They split targets and TDs. It limits upside for both players.  If one gets injured, the other might have top 5 potential, but then you need to consider how Bruce Arians uses TEs in his system.  Howard is a far superior athlete, but Brate is reliable.  Brate does not make mistakes and he gets the job done.  It keeps him on the field.

Bruce Arians offenses don't feature TEs.  2007-2011 Heath Miller is about the best you get.  500 yds and 5 TDs.

Arians likes his RBs and WRs.

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8 minutes ago, jmausen said:

They (Howard and Brate)  split targets and TDs. 

What kind of “split” are talking about here? 50/50? 60/40? 

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44 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think you're completely missing that Kittle played with C.J Beathard and Nick Mullens.  You can't possibly expect him to play worse with "a new QB" when that QB is clearly better. 

 

Even if his target share goes down you're forgetting there will be more targets in general because the punter won't always be on the field.  Also the quality of each target will be better.

 

Targeting TEs is contradictory to a typical Kyle Shanahan offense.  Last year was backup QBs, backup RBs, and injured WRs.

Shanahan uses two RBs and targets WRs.  Jordan Cameron had a breakout season in Cleveland the year before Shanahan was OC.  Shanahan didn't use Cameron.  Brian Hoyer was 7-6 that year in Cleveland before he was injured and Johnny Football became the starter.  Their WRs were not very good.  They won games.

Also, Shanahan just signed Toilolo who was his TE when they went to the Super Bowl with Atlanta.  Shanahan likes using blocking TEs and full backs.

 

Last year was do the best with what you've got.  Now they have more players, fewer injuries, and a playbook they can use.  Don't be surprised if Kittle disappoints everyone who drafts him.  He's a great player. Do they use him like a WR and give him Julio's job?  Preseason helps.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What kind of “split” are talking about here? 50/50? 60/40? 

Extrapolated numbers for OJ would put his season targets at 76.8 to brates 49

That would be...

61% OJ

39% Brate

 

OJs YPR is also much higher than Brates so he's likely going to get more yards per reception 

 

Edited by bhawks489

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5 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

What kind of “split” are talking about here? 50/50? 60/40? 

 

Tough to say with Arians.

Last year with a different coach and both players were healthy, about 60/40 Howard with equivalent TDs.  Brate is a TD vulcher.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Tough to say with Arians.

Last year with a different coach and both players were healthy, about 60/40 Howard with equivalent TDs.  Brate is a TD vulcher.

Brate only caught 2 TDs last year when OJ was playing. I guess if that’s the standard Garrett Celek, Goddert, and Demetrius Harris were all TD vulchers of Kittle, Ertz, and Kelce, too.

 

Brate has a TD scoring history because Jameis likes throwing TDs to Tight Ends, which bodes well for Howard considering he is now the preferred TE in all situations.

Edited by MJJ28

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Kittle is just a better player than Engram too. That helps.

 

I agree, that's not the point. We're simply talking about indicators of regression.

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Just now, paulwall29 said:

 

I agree, that's not the point. We're simply talking about indicators of regression.

 

And talent isn't a factor? Weird.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think you're completely missing that Kittle played with C.J Beathard and Nick Mullens.  You can't possibly expect him to play worse with "a new QB" when that QB is clearly better. 

 

Even if his target share goes down you're forgetting there will be more targets in general because the punter won't always be on the field.  Also the quality of each target will be better.

 

Yes, he had terrible QB's throwing to him but targets are still king in fantasy and he had 136. Niners QB's last year totaled 540 attempts for 4300 yards and 26's TD's which is a very competitive fantasy total. The point about a new QB is that we cannot count on him locking on to Kittle the way the niners QB's did last year. Jimmy G is better at reading defenses and will have more weapons at his disposal.

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3 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

And talent isn't a factor? Weird.

 

You're still missing the point. I never said that he is worse or will regress to the exact same degree as Engram. Just that there are very similar signs that point towards regression. And please stop acting like Engram is some bum. He was a 1st round pick, he's legit.

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19 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

You're still missing the point. I never said that he is worse or will regress to the exact same degree as Engram. Just that there are very similar signs that point towards regression. And please stop acting like Engram is some bum. He was a 1st round pick, he's legit.

 

You can find signs to compare literally any player to another in some respect if you look hard enought. I just dont think its a great comp.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You can find signs to compare literally any player to another in some respect if you look hard enought. I just dont think its a great comp.

 

Then you're blind. Just ignore the comp and pay attention to the fact that his target share is a mortal lock to take a hit, potentially a major one. It's simple math--there are only so many targets available and they will be distributed amongst far better talent this year (McKinnon, Coleman, Breida, Pettis, Deebo, Goodwin, Hurd). The year before Marquis Goodwin saw 105 targets, which will never happen again for similar reasons.

Edited by paulwall29

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I love the idea that Brate's targets are somehow stolen from Howard and nobody else just because he's also a TE.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

I love the idea that Brate's targets are somehow stolen from Howard and nobody else just because he's also a TE.

 

It's pretty funny.

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4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

Yes, he had terrible QB's throwing to him but targets are still king in fantasy and he had 136. Niners QB's last year totaled 540 attempts for 4300 yards and 26's TD's which is a very competitive fantasy total. The point about a new QB is that we cannot count on him locking on to Kittle the way the niners QB's did last year. Jimmy G is better at reading defenses and will have more weapons at his disposal.

The 49ers were 20th in total pass attempts in 2018.  They were 2nd in 2017.  See what I mean now?  You run more often when your QB is Nick Mullens.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

The 49ers were 20th in total pass attempts in 2018.  They were 2nd in 2017.  See what I mean now?  You run more often when your QB is Nick Mullens.

 

Who was their QB in 2017 lol?. Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer both played 6 games that year and had the same amount of pas attempts so your argument is irrelevant. Dig deeper, they were 15th in passing yards last season. No lock that they are any better than that this year and you better believe they will still be a heavy run team with Coleman/McKinnon/Breida (the only team that finished above them in passing yards that I see falling behind them is the Giants). You can continue to cherry pick stats to try and confirm your bias but, again, you are blind if you are ignoring the strong possibility of regression for Kittle.

Edited by paulwall29

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Posted (edited)

I actually like Jimmy G as a best ball QB for all the weapoins he has at WR(also TE) this year. I dont know what this has to do with OJ Howard but OJ = Top 3 TE this year, calling it

 

Kittle is the most obvious candidate for regression IMO...

Edited by bhawks489

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52 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Who was their QB in 2017 lol?. Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer both played 6 games that year and had the same amount of pas attempts so your argument is irrelevant. Dig deeper, they were 15th in passing yards last season. No lock that they are any better than that this year and you better believe they will still be a heavy run team with Coleman/McKinnon/Breida (the only team that finished above them in passing yards that I see falling behind them is the Giants). You can continue to cherry pick stats to try and confirm your bias but, again, you are blind if you are ignoring the strong possibility of regression for Kittle.

Kittles will regress if the rest of the team stays healthy

people are smoking some of last years smelly stuff if they really believe Kittles is going to be the focal point of the Niners passing attack and have another record breaking season 

If you look at what the niners now have talent wise on the roster, they are going to spread the ball around and not simply feed the TE , which was the only choice they had in an injury plagued 2018. 

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1 hour ago, paulwall29 said:

Who was their QB in 2017 lol?. Jimmy G and Brian Hoyer both played 6 games that year and had the same amount of pass attempts so your argument is irrelevant. 

In what way is this irrelevant?  They're both better than CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens so they passed more...

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42 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Kittle is the most obvious candidate for regression IMO...

 

18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Kittles will regress if the rest of the team stays healthy

You guys may be forgetting Kittle scored 5 TD's on 1377 yards and 136 targets.  Regression would be a good thing in that area.  Actually having a decent QB is the recipe for that.

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8 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

In what way is this irrelevant?  They're both better than CJ Beathard and Nick Mullens so they passed more...

 

You're a stubborn guy aren't you? Brian Hoyer sucks and CJ Beathard also played in 2017. If you don't see the relevance then you're a fool. 

Nick Mullens stats in 2018: 8 games, 176/274, 64.2% completions, 2277 yds, 13 TD's, 10 INT

CJ Beathard stats in 2018: 5 games, 102/169, 60.4% completions, 1252 yds, 8 TD's, 7 INT

Now let's look at 2017:

Brian Hoyer: 6 games, 119/204, 58% completions, 1245, 4 TD, 4 INT

Still think Brian Hoyer is the tits? You're really bad at this and should stop before running your mouth with no substance backing up your arguments.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

You guys may be forgetting Kittle scored 5 TD's on 1377 yards and 136 targets.  Regression would be a good thing in that area.  Actually having a decent QB is the recipe for that.

 

Good luck predicting TD regression for a guy that we have a 2 season sample on and has 7 total TD's on 200 career targets. If he had shown the TD prowess of OJ Howard (11 TD's on 87 career targets) then I would say you were on to something.

Edited by paulwall29

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