Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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27 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

You guys may be forgetting Kittle scored 5 TD's on 1377 yards and 136 targets.  Regression would be a good thing in that area.  Actually having a decent QB is the recipe for that.

No, i mean regression to about 100 targets but probably a good chunk of TDs

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7 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

You're a stubborn guy aren't you? Brian Hoyer sucks and CJ Beathard also played in 2017. If you don't see the relevance then you're a fool. 

Nick Mullens stats in 2018: 8 games, 176/274, 64.2% completions, 2277 yds, 13 TD's, 10 INT

CJ Beathard stats in 2018: 5 games, 102/169, 60.4% completions, 1252 yds, 8 TD's, 7 INT

Now let's look at 2017:

Brian Hoyer: 6 games, 119/204, 58% completions, 1245, 4 TD, 4 INT

Still think Brian Hoyer is the tits? You're really bad at this and should stop before running your mouth with no substance backing up your arguments.

😂

 

You're stuck on stats of irrelevant quarterbacks.  I'm talking about pass attempts.  The Quarterback for 2019 is Jimmy Garoppolo, not Brian Hoyer.  The point is more pass attempts equals more opportunities for Kittle since you seem to think a lower target share means something even when you get a quarterback upgrade.

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

You guys may be forgetting Kittle scored 5 TD's on 1377 yards and 136 targets.  Regression would be a good thing in that area.  Actually having a decent QB is the recipe for that.

 

i'm not forgetting anything. I think what you may be trying to say that his efficiency will improve with a better QB although I personally doubt that it will because he was pretty efficient. I think the regression will be in his production as a result of fewer targets. I think kittles will probably finish as a top 5 but not near the  record results he had last season

I focus on situation and his situation last season was a perfect storm of events, where despite a strong running game the Niners passing game couldnt effectively push the ball downfield  and Kittles was a target magnet for every  short and intermediate route. He benefited from a lack of a passing attack.

I think Jimmy G is going to be a more effective distributor of the ball  and I doubt if you see the injuries pile up again. The niners added 2 rookie wr's  and pettis should make a 2nd yr jump.  Tevin coleman+mckinnon are also effective pass catchers  and the noners barely used their rb's as pass catchers last year.

Shanny has a plethora of options to move the ball now

kittle+goodwin+pettis+debo+hurd+matthews+bourne+mkinnon+coleman

I see a bunch of opportunity for shanny to create mismatches and  target distribution for Jummy G.

Again less target volume for the TE

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Evidently, George Kittle is a big factor in determining OJ Howard’s 2019 outlook. 

Yes. they are both strongly tied together as early fantasy favorites to be top 5 although both are regression candidates. . .as one goes so shall the other 👏 🤣

Edited by dashoe

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7 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Good luck predicting TD regression for a guy that we have a 2 season sample on and has 7 total TD's on 200 career targets. If he had shown the TD prowess of OJ Howard (11 TD's on 87 career targets) then I would say you were on to something.

Regression equals moving towards the mean.  It's okay to assume less catches and yards but not assume a higher TD percentage?  Who exactly do you see as the red zone targets for Jimmy Garoppolo?

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11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I focus on situation and his situation last season was a perfect storm of events, where despite a strong running game the Niners passing game couldnt effectively push the ball downfield and Kittle was a target magnet for every short and intermediate route. He benefited from a lack of a passing attack.

I think Jimmy G is going to be a more effective distributor of the ball and I doubt if you see the injuries pile up again. The niners added 2 rookie wr's and pettis should make a 2nd yr jump.  Tevin coleman+mckinnon are also effective pass catchers and the niners barely used their rb's as pass catchers last year.

Shanny has a plethora of options to move the ball now

kittle+goodwin+pettis+debo+hurd+matthews+bourne+mkinnon+coleman

I see a bunch of opportunity for shanny to create mismatches and target distribution for Jummy G.

Again less target volume for the TE

Better Quarterback play also equals more pass attempts in general as the offense stays on the field longer.

 

More scoring opportunities.

 

I doubt the RB's are used more as pass catchers in a year they bring in more WR's 🤔

 

I'm saying with the increased number of pass attempts and the positive TD regression we're not looking at a huge regression candidate.  Maybe a slight regression for the 25 year old 3rd year TE.

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19 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I focus on situation and his situation last season was a perfect storm of events, where despite a strong running game the Niners passing game couldnt effectively push the ball downfield and Kittle was a target magnet for every short and intermediate route. He benefited from a lack of a passing attack.

Well then he may be the only TE in history that's benefitted from that type of situation

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Well then he may be the only TE in history that's benefitted from that type of situation

Engram had a similar situation his rookie year but on a much less effective giants team that I think lost their top wr's over a 3 game stretch and had a terrible running game whereas SF had a solid running game behind a top o-line which greatly benefited Kittle.  . . I think the unsung hero is the SF o-line which allows Jimmy G to have the luxury of spreading the ball around to ALL of his playmakers.

Interestingly  SF had a top 10 o-line but was #22  pass protect (primarily because of sacks)which explains why they couldnt push the ball downfield  via the air and the why the TE benefited from everything underneath

TPA had a #31 o-line but  a #15 pass protect  and explains despite the offense they put up with the Air raid they couldnt win games; if u cant run the ball you can't win games

OJ Howard won't be that much of a stud if the bucs dont fix that o-line because an Arians QB takes a lot of sacks waiting for the downfield play to develop as well as throw a lot of interceptions.  Jamesis already has a reputation as a turnover machine

Edited by dashoe
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I'm not forgetting anything. I think what you may be trying to say that his efficiency will improve with a better QB although I personally doubt that it will because he was pretty efficient.

Efficient per catch yes, but I think he can catch better than 64% of his targets with Garoppolo.  Higher TD % as well.

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Back to O.J. Howard, he's a beast.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Efficient per catch yes, but I think he can catch better than 64% of his targets with Garoppolo.  Higher TD % as well.

That's fair you have a more optimistic outlook

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17 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Extrapolated numbers for OJ would put his season targets at 76.8 to brates 49

That would be...

61% OJ

39% Brate

 

OJs YPR is also much higher than Brates so he's likely going to get more yards per reception 

Howard played less than 9 full games.  His targets are at least 85 extrapolated.

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15 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

Then you're blind. Just ignore the comp and pay attention to the fact that his target share is a mortal lock to take a hit, potentially a major one. It's simple math--there are only so many targets available and they will be distributed amongst far better talent this year (McKinnon, Coleman, Breida, Pettis, Deebo, Goodwin, Hurd). The year before Marquis Goodwin saw 105 targets, which will never happen again for similar reasons.

 

I have 20/20 vision. Can send you my medical records if you need to verify.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

Howard played less than 9 full games.  His targets are at least 85 extrapolated.

I figured to go on the low end to not get bashed for favoring him 

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Howard has never come close to playing a full season.  That's part of the problem.  The other problem is Arians.

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24 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Howard has never come close to playing a full season.  That's part of the problem.  The other problem is Arians.

I guess 14 games isn't close to a full season.

 

Arians can try to be a problem all he wants but the Bucs don't have any pass catching backs, they lost 160 targets at WR, and they're defense is still college level.  So unless Mike Evans is your #1 WR and Chris Godwin is your #10 WR the logic of Howard being worse than last year is mind blowing.

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31 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Howard has never come close to playing a full season.  That's part of the problem.  The other problem is Arians.

 

This Bruce Arians argument is so tired. He has never coached a TE even remotely close to the talent of OJ. Arians is too smart to not use the 2nd most talented pass catcher on his team.

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38 minutes ago, paulwall29 said:

 

This Bruce Arians argument is so tired. He has never coached a TE even remotely close to the talent of OJ. Arians is too smart to not use the 2nd most talented pass catcher on his team.

 

If I had half  of a  penny every time this was said about an NFL coach in terms of the talent on his team I would be a billionaire. . 😂

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27 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

If I had half  of a  penny every time this was said about an NFL coach in terms of the talent on his team I would be a billionaire. . 😂

Do you remember when Sean Payton didn't use TE's?  And then he did.  And then he didn't.

 

Andy Reid?  Kyle Shanahan?

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Payton, Reid, and K. Shanahan have all, indeed, had TEs put up a league winning fantasy number.  But Arians never has.  In ten seasons at the helm.  Heath Miller and Jermaine Gresham were actually pretty talented guys.

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Payton, Reid, and K. Shanahan have all, indeed, had TEs put up a league winning fantasy number.  But Arians never has.  In ten seasons at the helm.  Heath Miller and Jermaine Gresham were actually pretty talented guys.

 

Lol if you think Miller or Gresham can even sniff OJ's jock. OJ is in the Gronk, Jimmy Graham, Gates, Kelce tier of talent. Do better.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Payton, Reid, and K. Shanahan have all, indeed, had TEs put up a league winning fantasy number.  But Arians never has.  In ten seasons at the helm.  Heath Miller and Jermaine Gresham were actually pretty talented guys.

My point is there were times for each of those coaches that they DIDN'T use their TE.  Why?  Because they didn't have one worth using.

 

Get out of here with Heath Miller and Jermaine Gresham lol 😂

Edited by RMJ_12
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Posted (edited)

What are you dudes expecting OJs auction value to be? Assume 200 budget.

Edited by dmb3684

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2 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

What are you dudes expecting OJs auction value to be? Assume 200 budget.

Heres what I found from Fantasy Pros.

I want none of Cook but Howard seems to have a decent price at 13$

1. Travis Kelce, KC $45
2. George Kittle, SF $33
3. Zach Ertz, PHI $27
4. Jared Cook, NO $16
5. Evan Engram, NYG $15
6. O.J. Howard, TB $13
7. Hunter Henry, LAC $8
8. Vance McDonald, PIT $7
9. Jordan Reed, WAS $6
10. Eric Ebron, IND $5
11. Jack Doyle, IND $4
12. David Njoku, CLE $4
13. Austin Hooper, ATL $4
14. Delanie Walker, TEN $3
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