Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

O.J. Howard calls Bruce Arians' new offense "tight end friendly"

https://www.wfla.com/sports/oj-howard-calls-bruce-arians-new-offense-tight-end-friendly-/1951127635

Howard refers to the offense as “tight end friendly” and Arians agrees with him. Arians is impressed with the talented play of both Howard and Cameron Brate. Brate did not practice with his teammates on either Tuesday or Wednesday. He is still recovering from a surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

“Both of them can block and have really good receiving skills,” Arians says, “so they are the fourth line of receivers. If they are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches. Who is the best mismatch? Both of those guys have shown they will be mismatches on linebackers and safeties.”

 
 
So the way I am reading it is if Brate returns healthy he is a steal at TE because he will be FREE. . .🤣
 
Also how much draft capital do i want to pay up for the 4th line of pass catcher, when I know  a guy like kelce will be read #1 and Hunter Henry and Ertz will be read #2? No idea where jimmy g  targets kittle
Edited by dashoe

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24 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Howard refers to the offense as “tight end friendly” and Arians agrees with him. Arians is impressed with the talented play of both Howard and Cameron Brate. Brate did not practice with his teammates on either Tuesday or Wednesday. He is still recovering from a surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

“Both of them can block and have really good receiving skills,” Arians says, “so they are the fourth line of receivers. If they are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches. Who is the best mismatch? Both of those guys have shown they will be mismatches on linebackers and safeties.”

 
 
So the way I am reading it is if Brate returns healthy he is a steal at TE because he will be FREE. . .🤣
 
Also how much draft capital do i want to pay up for the 4th line of pass catcher, when I know  a guy like kelce will be read #1 and Hunter Henry and Ertz will be read #2? No idea where jimmy g  targets kittle

 

Arians' offense has NEVER been tight end friendly.  His best TE production was Heath Miller being a low-end TE1 for about 2 seasons, only because Big Ben loved him in the red zone.  Arians has LONG believed that TEs are around to block first and catch second.  Not a recipe for a lot of targets.  Plus Winston loves Brate in the RZ. 

Howard is being overvalued IMO. 

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4 hours ago, paulwall29 said:

 

This Bruce Arians argument is so tired. He has never coached a TE even remotely close to the talent of OJ. Arians is too smart to not use the 2nd most talented pass catcher on his team.

 

Exactly.  Chris Godwin is going to get a lot of targets. 

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29 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Howard refers to the offense as “tight end friendly” and Arians agrees with him. Arians is impressed with the talented play of both Howard and Cameron Brate. Brate did not practice with his teammates on either Tuesday or Wednesday. He is still recovering from a surgery to repair a torn labrum in his hip.

“Both of them can block and have really good receiving skills,” Arians says, “so they are the fourth line of receivers. If they are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches. Who is the best mismatch? Both of those guys have shown they will be mismatches on linebackers and safeties.”

 
 
So the way I am reading it is if Brate returns healthy he is a steal at TE because he will be FREE. . .🤣
 
Also how much draft capital do i want to pay up for the 4th line of pass catcher, when I know  a guy like kelce will be read #1 and Hunter Henry and Ertz will be read #2? No idea where jimmy g  targets kittle

Referring to the TEs as the “fourth line of receivers” does not mean they are the fourth read. There are 4 “receivers” on the field, 3WR and a TE. Doesn’t mean the 4th “receiver” is the 4th read. Any of them could be the primary/secondary read on any given play.

Considering the fact that while in Arizona Arians infamously said the “TEs are here to block”, it should be taken as a major positive that Arians now sees the TE as a reciever in TB. I wonder why....

Arians also says, “If they (TE) are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches.” Well, OJ Howard defines mismatch, so what does that tell you? 

Arians isn’t an idiot. In fact, many think he’s a pretty smart offensive mind. He has an elite talent at TE with OJ Howard, yet some of you have convinced yourself that he’s not going to exploit that?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Referring to the TEs as the “fourth line of receivers” does not mean they are the fourth read. There are 4 “receivers” on the field, 3WR and a TE. Doesn’t mean the 4th “receiver” is the 4th read. Any of them could be the primary/secondary read on any given play.

Considering the fact that while in Arizona Arians infamously said the “TEs are here to block”, it should be taken as a major positive that Arians now sees the TE as a reciever in TB. I wonder why....

Arians also says, “If they (TE) are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches.” Well, OJ Howard defines mismatch, so what does that tell you? 

Arians isn’t an idiot. In fact, many think he’s a pretty smart offensive mind. He has an elite talent at TE with OJ Howard, yet some of you have convinced yourself that he’s not going to exploit that?

 

au contraire my friend i am literally reading it as 4th read in Arians system . . . i'm not falling for any  between the lines coachspeak 🤣

 

and Brate is FREEEEEEEE. . ..👏

Edited by dashoe

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5 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Referring to the TEs as the “fourth line of receivers” does not mean they are the fourth read. There are 4 “receivers” on the field, 3WR and a TE. Doesn’t mean the 4th “receiver” is the 4th read. Any of them could be the primary/secondary read on any given play.

Considering the fact that while in Arizona Arians infamously said the “TEs are here to block”, it should be taken as a major positive that Arians now sees the TE as a reciever in TB. I wonder why....

Arians also says, “If they (TE) are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches.” Well, OJ Howard defines mismatch, so what does that tell you? 

Arians isn’t an idiot. In fact, many think he’s a pretty smart offensive mind. He has an elite talent at TE with OJ Howard, yet some of you have convinced yourself that he’s not going to exploit that?

 

Arians has ALWAYS thought TEs are "here to block". When in PIT he said that Heath Miller was a top-2 TE, because only Gronk could match him as a blocker.  In Indy when he was there, the TEs didn't get many targets during Luck's rookie year...he leaves for ARI and suddenly the IND TEs get targeted.  In ARI the TEs never got targeted either. Not a coincidence. 

 

Howard has been in the league for 2 years and has yet to finish as a TE1.  Let's slow the thinking that he is "obviously" elite. 

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Posted (edited)

So much over thinking in here.

We’ve got an offense that just threw for 5300/37, has a proven great offensive mind as the coach, and has a target vacuum due to the departures of multiple ancillary targets and people are questioning the situation?

Lmao this forum is dead. People here are beyond help.

Edited by MJJ28

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Arians has ALWAYS thought TEs are "here to block". When in PIT he said that Heath Miller was a top-2 TE, because only Gronk could match him as a blocker.  In Indy when he was there, the TEs didn't get many targets during Luck's rookie year...he leaves for ARI and suddenly the IND TEs get targeted.  In ARI the TEs never got targeted either. Not a coincidence. 

 

Howard has been in the league for 2 years and has yet to finish as a TE1.  Let's slow the thinking that he is "obviously" elite. 

 

This is a sensible post.  The hype machine keeps focusing on the talent of OJ whereas the non-hyped focus on the system he will play in and the other talent on the team. 

I'm of the view that too many are dismissing Brate and forget there was a reason why he was jamesis favorite red zone target. .  he knew where to position himself  for jamesis to trust him.  I think Arians is going to USE BOTH te's on the field to help create mismatches and I think Brate is going to frustrate OJ owners; it doesnt mean OJ wont be a stud but I anticipate some very frustrating weeks for OJ owners  when Brate gets significant redzone targets. 👁️

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Exactly.  Chris Godwin is going to get a lot of targets. 

All 160 vacant targets?

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37 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Arians has ALWAYS thought TEs are "here to block". When in PIT he said that Heath Miller was a top-2 TE, because only Gronk could match him as a blocker.  In Indy when he was there, the TEs didn't get many targets during Luck's rookie year...he leaves for ARI and suddenly the IND TEs get targeted.  In ARI the TEs never got targeted either. Not a coincidence. 

 

Howard has been in the league for 2 years and has yet to finish as a TE1.  Let's slow the thinking that he is "obviously" elite. 

 

He was a TE1 before he got hurt last season. Stop being obtuse.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

This is a sensible post.  The hype machine keeps focusing on the talent of OJ whereas the non-hyped focus on the system he will play in and the other talent on the team. 

I'm of the view that too many are dismissing Brate and forget there was a reason why he was jamesis favorite red zone target. .  he knew where to position himself  for jamesis to trust him.  I think Arians is going to USE BOTH te's on the field to help create mismatches and I think Brate is going to frustrate OJ owners; it doesnt mean OJ wont be a stud but I anticipate some very frustrating weeks for OJ owners  when Brate gets significant redzone targets. 👁️

 

Why would a TD thrown to Brate be any more frustrating for OJ owners than a TD thrown to anybody else if you expect them to both be on the field at the same time? I don’t get it.

If they are both on the field, like you say you expect, what is the difference for OJ owners if a TD goes to Brate versus Evans, Godwin, Ronald Jones, Barber, Watson, etc.? Are they only allowed to throw a certain # of TDs to players listed as a TE or something?

It’s one thing if they pull Howard in favor of Brate or someone else while in the redzone, but considering OJ is better than Brate at literally everything and Arians is smart it is highly unlikely that occurs more frequently than a one-off type situation.

Edited by MJJ28
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3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Why would a TD thrown to Brate be any more frustrating for OJ owners than a TD thrown to anybody else if you expect them to both be on the field at the same time? I don’t get it.

If they are both on the field, like you say you expect, what is the difference for OJ owners if a TD goes to Brate versus Evans, Godwin, Ronald Jones, Barber, Watson, etc.?

 

Do you care which rb gets goal line carries and which one doesnt?

Short answer is OPPORTUNITY because red zone and end zone target share matters in predicting production outcomes. 

Do you know of any single skill position that gets 100% target share in red and endzone situations? 🤨

So if the play/scheme/package the coaches call  distributes to the TE position a 35% share in  the red/end zone it will matter in terms of fantasy production if that is split between Brate/OJ correct? particularly if the bucs get into the redzone  a lot 😂

You draft and create your starting lineup based on predicting outcomes which is why it matters who gets the opportunity in  a given situation and who doesnt. 

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33 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

All 160 vacant targets?

Considering that  TPA rb's collectively had about 80 targets amongst the 3   and I think in one season alone DJ had 120 targets, it's safe to say that those vacant targets will be distributed throughout the entire arians offense with no problem 😂

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Do you care which rb gets goal line carries and which one doesnt?

Short answer is OPPORTUNITY because red zone and end zone target share matters in predicting production outcomes. 

Do you know of any single skill position that gets 100% target share in red and endzone situations? 🤨

So if the play/scheme/package the coaches call  distributes to the TE position a 35% share in  the red/end zone it will matter in terms of fantasy production if that is split between Brate/OJ correct? particularly if the bucs get into the redzone  a lot 😂

You draft and create your starting lineup based on predicting outcomes which is why it matters who gets the opportunity in  a given situation and who doesnt. 

 

I do not agree that there is a fixed ratio of TE red zone plays/packages within the scheme that Arians/Jameis will adhere to regardless of talent, so no, I don’t think that the OJ vs Brate red zone TD split matters any more than the OJ vs anyone else split, so long as OJ is not being taken off the field.

Edited by MJJ28
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

Considering that  TPA rb's collectively had about 80 targets amongst the 3   and I think in one season alone DJ had 120 targets, it's safe to say that those vacant targets will be distributed throughout the entire arians offense with no problem 😂

Yeah you might need RB who can catch for that

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

Do you care which rb gets goal line carries and which one doesnt?

Short answer is OPPORTUNITY because red zone and end zone target share matters in predicting production outcomes. 

You draft and create your starting lineup based on predicting outcomes which is why it matters who gets the opportunity in a given situation and who doesnt. 

Goal line carries are different because only 1 RB is on the field at a time.

 

Brate isn't taking away OPPORTUNITY from Howard if Howard is still on the field when he scores.  In what world is Brate on the field in the red zone without Howard?

 

160 vacated targets from last season and you think Chris Godwin and the RB's are the only ones to benefit from that?  🙄

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You guys have never actually had OJ Howard on your fantasy teams, have you?  Trust me, it is VERY frustrating when Cameron Brate scores his TDs for him.

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11 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Howard has been in the league for 2 years and has yet to finish as a TE1.  Let's slow the thinking that he is "obviously" elite. 

It usually takes TE a few years to develop, which is part of the excitement surrounding OJ. In just his second season, we had articles like this-

O.J. Howard off to a flying start, standing out as the best tight end in football

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/o-j-howard-off-to-a-flying-start-standing-out-as-the-best-tight-end-in-football

Now entering his 3rd season, which is often the breakout season for promising TEs, with a great offensive minded coach there is clearly potential for OJ Howard to be an elite TE in 2019.

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8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Goal line carries are different because only 1 RB is on the field at a time.

 

Brate isn't taking away OPPORTUNITY from Howard if Howard is still on the field when he scores.  In what world is Brate on the field in the red zone without Howard?

 

160 vacated targets from last season and you think Chris Godwin and the RB's are the only ones to benefit from that?  🙄

 

So you don't think with brate on the field with Howard that limits Howards opportunity to catch a TD? 🤨

 

Coaches tend to call specific redzone and endzone schemes which is why those target shares in scoring opportunities are relevant.

I mean it's almost like you guys are saying target share in the rz/ez dont matter nor does it affect fantasy production?  🤣

I can assure you if TPA gets into more scoring positions  with Arians system . . .it will matter if you see Brate catching td passes and OJ not and it will FRUSTRATE you 🤪

Target share:

Brate  2018  rz= 14% ez=15%   

           2017 rz= 18%  ez= 14%

Howard  2018 rz =12%   ez= 7%

                2017 rz= 10%  ez= 12%

kelce  rz=26%  ez= 24%

Kittle  rz=26   ez=33%

ertz  rz= 32 ez=27

And for giggles the now retire:

Gronk  2018  rz=12%  ez= 25% 

             2017  rz=30%   ez= 36%

 

Notice how all the stud  fantasy TE's have  rz+ez target shares well above 20%?   Brate obviously won't hurt OJ's production and of course  the rz/ez target share metric is irrelevant right? 👁️

Yes none of this matters because  you guys are basically saying that Arians is going to use his TE's the same way Hoodie did with Gronk+Hernandez and both will be fantasy relevant studs as well as Evans+Godwin. . 👏

 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

au contraire my friend i am literally reading it as 4th read in Arians system . 

 

Exactly. You are reading it as something that was never said, and literally changing words to fit your narrative.

Arians referred to his TEs as the 4th line of recevers. He never said or even suggested that they were the 4th read. In fact, Arians went on to say, “If they (TE) are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches.” Meaning, the 1st/2nd/3rd read on a given play will be based on exploiting mismatches, plain and simple, and very often that will be OJ Howard. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

So you don't think with brate on the field with Howard that limits Howards opportunity to catch a TD? 🤨

 

🤔 with that logic Evans and Godwin limit Howard's opportunity.  See how that works.  It doesn't make any sense.

 

4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Target share:

Brate  2018  rz= 14% ez=15%   

           2017 rz= 18%  ez= 14%

Howard  2018 rz =12%   ez= 7%

                2017 rz= 10%  ez= 12%

kelce  rz=26%  ez= 24%

Kittle  rz=26   ez=33%

ertz  rz= 32 ez=27

Target share percentages when Howard only played 9 games?  Dear God.

 

You might need to stop and realize Howard is only going into his 3rd season.  He's 24.

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Just now, Lamont Sanford said:

Exactly. You are reading it as something that was never said, and literally changing words to fit your narrative.

Arians referred to his TEs as the 4th line of recevers. He never said or even suggested that they were the 4th read. In fact, Arians went on to say, “If they (TE) are the mismatch, they are the game plan. It is finding mismatches.” Meaning, the 1st/2nd/3rd read on a given play will be based on exploiting mismatches, plain and simple, and very often that will be OJ Howard. 

 

you see 4th line in formation  and I see it as 4th READ and of course it's fitting my narrative same as everything you post about OJ  fits your narrative. .  right? 🤣

You are hyping him as if he will be a top3 TE in the production of kelce-ertz-gronk because you are betting on his talent and I am deflating that hype and view him more as a 5-10 rank guy betting  on his situation as it pertains to the team and HC.  

So we each have our narratives 👏

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

So you don't think with brate on the field with Howard that limits Howards opportunity to catch a TD? 🤨

 

Coaches tend to call specific redzone and endzone schemes which is why those target shares in scoring opportunities are relevant.

I mean it's almost like you guys are saying target share in the rz/ez dont matter nor does it affect fantasy production?  🤣

I can assure you if TPA gets into more scoring positions  with Arians system . . .it will matter if you see Brate catching td passes and OJ not and it will FRUSTRATE you 🤪

Target share:

Brate  2018  rz= 14% ez=15%   

           2017 rz= 18%  ez= 14%

Howard  2018 rz =12%   ez= 7%

                2017 rz= 10%  ez= 12%

kelce  rz=26%  ez= 24%

Kittle  rz=26   ez=33%

ertz  rz= 32 ez=27

And for giggles the now retire:

Gronk  2018  rz=12%  ez= 25% 

             2017  rz=30%   ez= 36%

 

Notice how all the stud  fantasy TE's have  rz+ez target shares well above 20%?   Brate obviously won't hurt OJ's production and of course  the rz/ez target share metric is irrelevant right? 👁️

Yes none of this matters because  you guys are basically saying that Arians is going to use his TE's the same way Hoodie did with Gronk+Hernandez and both will be fantasy relevant studs as well as Evans+Godwin. . 👏

 

 

Thankfully Brate is irrelevant when OJ plays so none of these stats you’ve conjured up are relevant, so long as OJ isn’t injured. Last season Brate “vultured” less TDs than Goddert, Demetrius Harris, and Kittle’s backups. Brate is a non factor on OJs potential outlook.

Edited by MJJ28
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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

🤔 with that logic Evans and Godwin limit Howard's opportunity.  See how that works.  It doesn't make any sense.

 

Target share percentages when Howard only played 9 games?  Dear God.

 

You might need to stop and realize Howard is only going into his 3rd season.  He's 24.

1.  I think you significantly overlook Brate+ OJ effectively  are fungible in the TE role as they both create mismatches, TPA has arguably the best TE duo in the NFL in terms of guys who can BOTH block and catch. OJ is the better athlete but let's not pretend that Brate  can't perform at a high level, that would be disingenuous. 

2. 9 games is large enough to demonstrate that the target share percentages are relevant and the year to year splits  show the consistency. OJ was NOT going to get a 25-35% share even if he played 16 games. 

I will take the bet he wont achieve those target shares this year either as long as Brate is on the field.

3. You might need to stop and realize that Brate limits his opportunity and production particularly in the rz/ez where a few targets can easily give you double digit fantasy points.

Not sure why you guys pretend Brate is not a relevant factor. . 🤣

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