Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Oj had 4 red zone TD on 6 targets with Jameis as his QB in 7 games.

Brate had 1 red zone TD on 3 targets with OJ on the field and Jameis as his QB in 6 games.

Brate is a non factor when OJ is on the field.

 

If "Brate is a non factor when OJ is on the field" then OJ should have had nine TE RZ targets to Brate's zero, or maybe eight to one. A 33% share of TE RZ targets tho is 100% relevant and is absolutely a factor.

 

I'm an OJ truther as well, but c'mon man. Your numbers don't support your statements and aren't doing anybody any favors.

Edited by JJRules
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5 minutes ago, JJRules said:

 

If "Brate is a non factor when OJ is on the field" then OJ should have had nine TE RZ targets to Brate's zero, or maybe eight to one. A 33% share of TE RZ targets tho is 100% relevant and is absolutely a factor.

 

I'm an OJ truther as well, but c'mon man. Your numbers don't support your statements and aren't doing anybody any favors.

 

Finally a voice of reason amongst the truthers!👋

OJ could very well be a stud TE  this season, despite the fact that Brate takes away valuable rz/ez targets but it is silly to pretend he is irrelevant in terms of predicting OJ's potential weekly production. Brate can easily disrupt that week to week point production of OJ if the coaches/Jamesis see him as scoring weapon against defenses.  

Tampa is in a unique position of having 2 tes who can both block and catch at a high level which currently no other NFL team has on their roster.  NE had a similar situation I believe but I dont recall the fantasy effectiveness of hoodie playing both Gronk and hernandez aside from a fuzzy memory of them both having injury issues. 

 

The more I'm looking at TE's the more i'm leaning towards avoiding mid round TE picks,  grabbing rb/wr  for the potential league winning stud in the flex and gambling on both reed/eifert end of draft willing to suffer mediocrity in that position.  

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45 minutes ago, JJRules said:

 

If "Brate is a non factor when OJ is on the field" then OJ should have had nine TE RZ targets to Brate's zero, or maybe eight to one. A 33% share of TE RZ targets tho is 100% relevant and is absolutely a factor.

 

I'm an OJ truther as well, but c'mon man. Your numbers don't support your statements and aren't doing anybody any favors.

 

20 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Finally a voice of reason amongst the truthers!👋

 

Maybe you guys aren't exactly sure how football works but let me break it down for you.

 

NOBODY is getting 100% red zone targets at their position.  So to talk about it as if it ONLY pertains to O.J. Howard and nobody else is literally one of the stupidest and laziest arguments I've ever seen.

 

Demetrius Harris(a Chiefs TE) received 4 red zone targets last season and scored 3 TD's.  Dallas Goedert(an Eagles TE) received 7 red zone targets last season and also scored 3 TD's.  Kelce and Ertz BOTH PLAYED 16 GAMES.  O.J. Howard ONLY PLAYED 9 GAMES and Cameron Brate scored 6 TD's.  Find something else to use as an argument.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

you should have seen RMJ in the Davante Adams thread last season he was 50% of the anti- davante posts. . . the man is relentless🤣

Irony at it's finest

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

 

Maybe you guys aren't exactly sure how football works but let me break it down for you.

 

NOBODY is getting 100% red zone targets at their position.  So to talk about it as if it ONLY pertains to O.J. Howard and nobody else is literally one of the stupidest and laziest arguments I've ever seen.

 

Demetrius Harris(a Chiefs TE) received 4 red zone targets last season and scored 3 TD's.  Dallas Goedert(an Eagles TE) received 7 red zone targets last season and also scored 3 TD's.  Kelce and Ertz BOTH PLAYED 16 GAMES.  O.J. Howard ONLY PLAYED 9 GAMES and Cameron Brate scored 6 TD's.  Find something else to use as an argument.

 

I'm not suggesting that anybody should or will get 100% TE RZ targets. Rather, I'm pointing out that saying the other guy is a non factor, or that he's somehow irrelevant is inherently untrue, and that making such an argument is silly when the numbers used to justify such clearly indicate otherwise.

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26 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

Maybe you guys aren't exactly sure how football works but let me break it down for you.

 

NOBODY is getting 100% red zone targets at their position.  So to talk about it as if it ONLY pertains to O.J. Howard and nobody else is literally one of the stupidest and laziest arguments I've ever seen.

 

 

 

Why are you arguing a false premise you keep creating?  The point was FACTUALLY shown to be the elite TE's had 25-35% target share  rz/ez not 100%. . . are you sure you know how football works? 👀

So if the new bucs offense continue to get into the rz/ez  that target share is very relevant if brate splits it. Why are you fighting facts when you can easily say is you don't believe his 15% rz/ez target share will  have an adverse affect on his fantasy production because you believe  it will be mitigated with a higher market share of the total passing offense?

That's a more cogent position to take than to simply say Brate is irrelevant and promoting false stats. . . I can see both sides like a politician. . .you're welcome. . . 🤣

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Just now, JJRules said:

 

I'm not suggesting that anybody should or will get 100% TE RZ targets. Rather, I'm pointing out that saying the other guy is a non factor, or that he's somehow irrelevant is inherently untrue, and that making such an argument is silly when the numbers used to justify such clearly indicate 

Are you talking about the 3 targets that were mentioned in 6 games?  That's an awfully small sample size. 

 

Keep in mind it was also O.J. Howard's 2nd season.  He was 23 years old.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Why are you arguing a false premise you keep creating?  The point was FACTUALLY shown to be the elite TE's had 25-35% target share  rz/ez not 100%. . . are you sure you know how football works? 👀

So if the new bucs offense continue to get into the rz/ez  that target share is very relevant if brate splits it. Why are you fighting facts when you can easily say is you don't believe his 15% rz/ez target share will have an adverse affect on his fantasy production because you believe  it will be mitigated with a higher market share of the total passing offense?

You keep thinking you're so slick using false percentages.

 

YOU CAN'T USE RED ZONE PERCENTAGES FOR A SEASON WHEN OJ HOWARD PLAYED 9 GAMES.

 

Of course Brates %'s are elevated when he was the only TE on the field for 7 games.

Edited by RMJ_12

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You keep thinking you're so slick using false percentages.

 

YOU CAN'T USE RED ZONE PERCENTAGES FOR A SEASON WHEN OJ HOWARD PLAYED 9 GAMES.

 

Of course Brates %'s are elevated when he was the only TE on the field for 7 games.

 

Yes  sir  you caught me Slick Stats Dashoe. . . .Slicker than a greased pig at a county fair. . .🤣

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53 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Are you talking about the 3 targets that were mentioned in 6 games?  That's an awfully small sample size. 

 

Keep in mind it was also O.J. Howard's 2nd season.  He was 23 years old.

 

I'm talking about Brate's three targets relative to OJ's six. Brate got a third of his position group's already limited RZ targets, and that's a significant ratio.

 

I'm well aware of what OJ brings to the table, and I'm super stoked to have him on my dynasty roster as I believe the sky is the limit for this kid's potential. I'm also not going to just blindly anoint him as the next top-three fantasy TE because of it, as there are legitimate questions and concerns for this upcoming season.

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31 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You keep thinking you're so slick using false percentages.

 

YOU CAN'T USE RED ZONE PERCENTAGES FOR A SEASON WHEN OJ HOWARD PLAYED 9 GAMES.

 

Of course Brates %'s are elevated when he was the only TE on the field for 7 games.

The fact that Howard only played in nine games in 2018?  Not a point in his favor.  Davante Parker is another talented player who is constantly banged up, even in the games he actually plays in.  The NFL is not for everyone.

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12 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

The fact that Howard only played in nine games in 2018?  Not a point in his favor.  Davante Parker is another talented player who is constantly banged up, even in the games he actually plays in.  The NFL is not for everyone.

 

Good thing we don't care about 2018 anymore. We are focused on the 2019 season, and OJ is as healthy as one can reasonably be.

It's football though, so yea, he'll probably get hurt. Him and all the other players who play football, too.

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On 5/19/2019 at 10:39 AM, MJJ28 said:

 

Oj had 4 red zone TD on 6 targets with Jameis as his QB in 7 games.

Brate had 1 red zone TD on 3 targets with OJ on the field and Jameis as his QB in 6 games.

Brate is a non factor when OJ is on the field.

Does this include 2017?  OJ Howard only played 4.5 games with Winston last season.

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On 5/18/2019 at 8:58 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Exactly.  Chris Godwin is going to get a lot of targets. 

There may be some truth to this. . .

"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot," Arians said at the Annual League Meeting in Phoenix this week, per the team's official website. "He's never coming off the field."

 

Targets in an Arians offense:

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

There may be some truth to this. . .

"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot," Arians said at the Annual League Meeting in Phoenix this week, per the team's official website. "He's never coming off the field."

 

Targets in an Arians offense:

a screenshot of a cell phone

 

Apparently Bruce Arians already knows how bad of a defense he has in TB.

 

The thing is Evans and Godwin can both do well and so can OJ Howard.  Crazy thought.

 

The last time Bruce Arians coached, his team was 5th in the league in pass attempts with 3 different QB's(and a better defense than he has now).  

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Apparently Bruce Arians already knows how bad of a defense he has in TB.

 

The thing is Evans and Godwin can both do well and so can OJ Howard.  Crazy thought.

 

The last time Bruce Arians coached, his team was 5th in the league in pass attempts with 3 different QB's(and a better defense than he has now).  

Well enough for 5th-6th rd draft capital in ppr and Brate lurking in the shadows scaveging week to week? 😱

Thats a tough sell

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28 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Well enough for 5th-6th rd draft capital in ppr and Brate lurking in the shadows scaveging week to week? 😱

Thats a tough sell

Yes, O.J. Howard was the 5th best TE in 2018 in PPG.  With Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries on the team.  In his age 23 season.  With 2 different Quarterbacks.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, O.J. Howard was the 5th best TE in 2018 in PPG.  With Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries on the team.  In his age 23 season.  With 2 different Quarterbacks.

I notice you keep stating Howards age as a determining factor when in reality his situation is the best correlation to opportunity and production. 

Age is used more as generic correlation to show peak production and decline on average for a group but not specific to individuals.

The generic peak age for an NFL TE is 25  and their peak period on average is 3 years but I wouldnt find that useful in terms of predicting OJ's production for this season because his situation involves a new HC,integration of a new scheme and a potentially healthy Brate who was playing injured all of last season.  🌈

Edited by dashoe

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OJ Howard 2019 is the classic "will talent overcome a bad situation?" question.

Except for the Howard truthers in this thread, who have somehow convinced themselves that Howard is actually in a good situation.

Taking off the rose-colored glasses is going to be the necessary first step for them.  I am not going to give up hope for them.

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14 hours ago, dashoe said:

I notice you keep stating Howards age as a determining factor when in reality his situation is the best correlation to opportunity and production. 

Age is used more as generic correlation to show peak production and decline on average for a group but for specific to individuals.

The generic peak age for an NFL TE is 25  and their peak period on average is 3 years but I wouldnt find that useful in terms of predicting OJ's production for this season because his situation involves a new HC,integration of a new scheme and a potentially healthy Brate who was playing injured all of last season.  🌈

Good work but you "The More You Know" sticker needs to be a bit bigger.  

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18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I notice you keep stating Howards age as a determining factor when in reality his situation is the best correlation to opportunity and production. 

Age is used more as generic correlation to show peak production and decline on average for a group but not specific to individuals.

The generic peak age for an NFL TE is 25  and their peak period on average is 3 years but I wouldnt find that useful in terms of predicting OJ's production for this season because his situation involves a new HC,integration of a new scheme and a potentially healthy Brate who was playing injured all of last season.  🌈

I notice you keep ignoring the 160 vacant targets in what projects to be an extremely pass happy offense in 2019.  The defense may be even worse than last year.  The running game has not changed, nor has the offensive line.

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OJ has one of the best situations in the NFL.

The offense put up 5300/37 through the air last year.

They have an excellent head coach has proven to run great passing offenses time and time again.

If that's not a great situation I don't know what is.

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12 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

OJ has one of the best situations in the NFL.

The offense put up 5300/37 through the air last year.

They have an excellent head coach has proven to run great passing offenses time and time again.

If that's not a great situation I don't know what is.

Didn't you hear?  Peyton Barber is getting 100 targets.  Chris Godwin 150 targets.  And Justin Watson around 75.

 

In fact, they're going to eat more into the target % that Howard had last season.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

OJ Howard 2019 is the classic "will talent overcome a bad situation?" question.

Except for the Howard truthers in this thread, who have somehow convinced themselves that Howard is actually in a good situation.

Taking off the rose-colored glasses is going to be the necessary first step for them.  I am not going to give up hope for them.

 

Actually OJ Howard is the classic "talent meets opportunity" situation.

He will be a clear cut starter on what projects to be a prolific passing offense. It doesn't get much better than that.

 

"Will talent overcome situation?" would apply if he was playing for Jacksonville, Buffalo, Tennessee, Miami, Denver, Baltimore, or some other passing offense that projects to be terrible, but currently OJ is set to play a central role on what should be one of the best statistical passing offenses in the league. The offense is actually so good that it has proven to make a mediocre talent like Brate semi-relevant when he has been given significant playing time.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Didn't you hear?  Peyton Barber is getting 100 targets.  Chris Godwin 150 targets.  And Justin Watson around 75.

 

In fact, they're going to eat more into the target % that Howard had last season.

 

I guess so. I wish I played in leagues with guys who considered top offenses bad situations. I could use some more leaguemates selecting players from the Broncos, Titans, Jags, Ravens, Bills, etc. of the league.

Edited by MJJ28

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