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O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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33 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

OJ has one of the best situations in the NFL.

The offense put up 5300/37 through the air last year.

They have an excellent head coach has proven to run great passing offenses time and time again.

If that's not a great situation I don't know what is.

But Arians's previous success in the passing game has largely been through the use of WRs, while his TEs have played a distant second fiddle.  And Winston, his erratic and turnover-prone quarterback, loves throwing the football to fellow TE Cameron Brate in the end zone and red zone.  Finally, Howard has proved to be injury prone so far in his NFL career.

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But Arians's previous success in the passing game has largely been through the use of WRs, while his TEs have played a distant second fiddle.  And Winston, his erratic and turnover-prone quarterback, loves throwing the football to fellow TE Cameron Brate in the end zone and red zone.  Finally, Howard has proved to be injury prone so far in his NFL career.

 

Too much logic and facts for the Howard truthers. 

Howard has great upside this year, but that what it is -- UPSIDE.  Not worth his current 5th round ADP. 

 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But Arians's previous success in the passing game has largely been through the use of WRs, while his TEs have played a distant second fiddle.  And Winston, his erratic and turnover-prone quarterback, loves throwing the football to fellow TE Cameron Brate in the end zone and red zone.  Finally, Howard has proved to be injury prone so far in his NFL career.

 

Most offenses don't have much success passing at all, so attempting to find an offense that is not only successful, but also funnels that success through the TE leaves you with 3 choices at the position (who are going in the 2nd round).

As proven already, Brate doesn't do much of anything when OJ is on the field.

Howard plays football, like everyone else in the NFL, so yes, he is injury prone. Every player in the NFL is injury prone, because they play football. Maybe try fantasy curling if you can't handle the possibility of someone getting hurt in the NFL.

Edited by MJJ28

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

But Arians's previous success in the passing game has largely been through the use of WRs, while his TEs have played a distant second fiddle.  And Winston, his erratic and turnover-prone quarterback, loves throwing the football to fellow TE Cameron Brate in the end zone and red zone.  Finally, Howard has proved to be injury prone so far in his NFL career.

 

Agreed.  I tried making a similar Arians point earlier.  Heath Miller was the most he ever used a TE ~600 yards and 6 TDs.  Not awesome.

Also, Howard had 5 TDs in 11 games last year.  4 of those TDs came from Fitzpatrick.  He is on a different team now and not throwing TDs to Howard. 

Before Howard was injured, Winston threw 2 TDs to Brate and only 1 to Howard.  Feel free to double check.

Don't waste an early pick on Howard.

Brate is also the 10th highest paid TE in the NFL.  #9 with Gronk retired.  That probably means something.

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

OJ has one of the best situations in the NFL.

The offense put up 5300/37 through the air last year.

They have an excellent head coach has proven to run great passing offenses time and time again.

If that's not a great situation I don't know what is.

 

Could you please post the news link where Koeter+Monken were rehired and  Arians+leftwich were fired  

and has desan+humprhies+fitzmagic   been cut and Tampa resigned them? I can't find the breaking news

Thx! 🤣

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30 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Agreed.  I tried making a similar Arians point earlier.  Heath Miller was the most he ever used a TE ~600 yards and 6 TDs.  Not awesome.

Also, Howard had 5 TDs in 11 games last year.  4 of those TDs came from Fitzpatrick.  He is on a different team now and not throwing TDs to Howard. 

Before Howard was injured, Winston threw 2 TDs to Brate and only 1 to Howard.  Feel free to double check.

Don't waste an early pick on Howard.

Brate is also the 10th highest paid TE in the NFL.  #9 with Gronk retired.  That probably means something.

👎

 

Yes, most of Howard's TD were from Fitzpatrick and not Winston BECAUSE he only played 3.5 games with Winston.  He played 5.5 games with Fitzpatrick. (I double checked)

 

Your point about Heath Miller would make sense if he actually had good seasons without Bruce Arians.  And you're wrong again because Miller's best season with Arians was 98 targets, 76 catches, 789 yards, 6 TD's.

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17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

and has desan+humprhies+fitzmagic   been cut and Tampa resigned them? I can't find the breaking news

Thx! 🤣

Somehow you see this as a good argument AGAINST Howard 😂😂😂

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

Could you please post the news link where Koeter+Monken were rehired and  Arians+leftwich were fired  

and has desan+humprhies+fitzmagic   been cut and Tampa resigned them? I can't find the breaking news

Thx! 🤣

 

Arians is a far better coach than Koeter+Monken could ever dream of being, so not sure why you are trying to spin that as a negative?

Fitzmagic and Jameis are pretty interchangeable from a statistical perspective, so no real loss there so long as Jameis stays on the field.

Losing Jackson + Humphries likely does hurt the overall performance of the offense as more good players is always better, but a consolidation of targets through Evans, Godwin, and Howard is highly likely given the lack of proven contributors outside that group, and that trio is still far better than the vast majority of what other teams are rolling out. The offense probably won't put up 5300 yards again, but it will still be very good and the production will likely be consolidated.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

I notice you keep ignoring the 160 vacant targets in what projects to be an extremely pass happy offense in 2019.  The defense may be even worse than last year.  The running game has not changed, nor has the offensive line.

 

I never ignored it. . 

1.  Vacant targets as an absolute number  is a bad process because you are assuming those targets will be replicated when they dont necessarily have to be. Case in point Seattle eliminated about 125 targets from their offense last season and made the playoffs.

The better process is TARGET SHARE because  percentages are pretty consistent in offenses.

Howard 2018- 12% 2017- 8%

Brate 2018- 8% 2017- 13%

Cross 2018 - 3%  2017- 3%

 

Wr's:

Evans 2018 -22% 2017 -24%

humprhies  2018- 17%  2017- 14%

Godwin 2018 - 15%  2017- 10%

Desean 2018- 15%  2017- 17%

👉Notice how basically the howard+brate flipped their personal shares but total TE target share has been consistent in a 2yr period?  They get consistently get 20% of targets so again this illustrates the BRATE is relevant in limiting OJ's opportunity and production.

Get rid of Brate and Howard  should be an elite TE in every category based on opportunity.👈

🤞

 

So what you should say is that  32% target share is available not 160 vacant targets because that number of targets could be reduced  to 100 or 50 or 60 or increased to 200, good lucj with that,  however  percentage of target share has been consistent. 

 

2.  Maybe the TE share increases another 5%  and they get 28% which is a nice chunk of the passing offense  before considering the rb's and the rest of the wr's they have on their roster.  Now are you confident that Arians is going to increase  OJ  targets  from 12% to say 24% as if he is Evans and not use Brate? I doubt it 🤔

I really dont understand why you truthers think the other skills players on the team are not going to be involved in the passing offense.

 

This is simple math here fellas and the numbers tell the real story of ball distribution with regards to Brate+Howard. 

What you guys are banking on is Arains flips the entire script and turns Howard into Kelce or gronk. .  guys who are the focal points of their offenses.

🌈

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16 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Arians is a far better coach than Koeter+Monken could ever dream of being, so not sure why you are trying to spin that as a negative?

Fitzmagic and Jameis are pretty interchangeable from a statistical perspective, so no real loss there so long as Jameis stays on the field.

Losing Jackson + Humphries likely does hurt the overall performance of the offense as more good players is always better, but a consolidation of targets through Evans, Godwin, and Howard is highly likely given the lack of proven contributors outside that group, and that trio is still far better than the vast majority of what other teams are rolling out. The offense probably won't put up 5300 yards again, but it will still be very good and the production will likely be consolidated.

 

I'm not spinning anything as a negative, I'm poking fun at you consistently stating what they did LAST YEAR as if this is the exact same team as last year when the fact is this is a completely different team with new coaching, schemes and personnel  integrating with what remains from last year.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

👎

 

Yes, most of Howard's TD were from Fitzpatrick and not Winston BECAUSE he only played 3.5 games with Winston.  He played 5.5 games with Fitzpatrick. (I double checked)

 

Your point about Heath Miller would make sense if he actually had good seasons without Bruce Arians.  And you're wrong again because Miller's best season with Arians was 98 targets, 76 catches, 789 yards, 6 TD's.

 

Howard played 10 games last year.  Winston did not play in 5 of them.  I think Fitzpatrick played himself onto the bench twice.

The games that Winston/Howard/Brate all played:  2 TDs Brate and 1 TD Howard.  

Brate is just like Doyle in INDY.  They are both great blockers who are going to be on the field and eating volume.  Doyle is going to effect Ebron's production this year.  It's difficult to find fantasy relevance in either of these situations.

Arians was PIT OC from 2007-2011.  Heath averaged 602 yards and 4 TDs.  His best season was after Arians left in 2012: 816 yards 8 TDs.  He tore his ACL in December 2012 played 3 more years and retired. 

Cardinals TEs never did anything.

 

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I never ignored it. . 

1.  Vacant targets as an absolute number  is a bad process because you are assuming those targets will be replicated when they dont necessarily have to be. Case in point Seattle eliminated about 125 targets from their offense last season and made the playoffs.

The better process is TARGET SHARE because  percentages are pretty consistent in offenses.

Howard 2018- 12% 2017- 8%

Brate 2018- 8% 2017- 13%

Cross 2018 - 3%  2017- 3%

 

Wr's:

Evans 2018 -22% 2017 -24%

humprhies  2018- 17%  2017- 14%

Godwin 2018 - 15%  2017- 10%

Desean 2018- 15%  2017- 17%

👉Notice how basically the howard+brate flipped their personal shares but total TE target share has been consistent in a 2yr period?  They get consistently get 20% of targets so again this illustrates the BRATE is relevant in limiting OJ's opportunity and production.

Get rid of Brate and Howard  should be an elite TE in every category based on opportunity.👈

🤞

 

So what you should say is that  32% target share is available not 160 vacant targets because that number of targets could be reduced  to 100 or 50 or 60 or increased to 200, good lucj with that,  however  percentage of target share has been consistent. 

 

2.  Maybe the TE share increases another 5%  and they get 28% which is a nice chunk of the passing offense  before considering the rb's and the rest of the wr's they have on their roster.  Now are you confident that Arians is going to increase  OJ  targets  from 12% to say 24% as if he is Evans and not use Brate? I doubt it 🤔

I really dont understand why you truthers think the other skills players on the team are not going to be involved in the passing offense.

 

This is simple math here fellas and the numbers tell the real story of ball distribution with regards to Brate+Howard. 

What you guys are banking on is Arains flips the entire script and turns Howard into Kelce or gronk. .  guys who are the focal points of their offenses.

🌈

 

Most of the 2018 numbers were from a different QB with a different coach.

One could also argue that Fitzpatrick and Howard both practiced with the 2nd team, which is why Howard was Fitzpatrick's favorite RZ target.

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6 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Howard played 10 games last year.  Winston did not play in 5 of them.  I think Fitzpatrick played himself onto the bench twice.

 

Yes, Winston played IN 5 of them for a total of 3.5 FULL games during the QB carousel in 2018.

 

7 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Arians was PIT OC from 2007-2011.  Heath averaged 602 yards and 4 TDs.  His best season was after Arians left in 2012: 816 yards 8 TDs.  He tore his ACL in December 2012 played 3 more years and retired. 

 

His best season with Arians was 98 targets, 76 catches, 789 yards, 6 TD's.  Best season after Arians was 101 targets, 71 catches, 816 yards, 8 TD's.

 

Cool.

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2 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Most of the 2018 numbers were from a different QB with a different coach.

One could also argue that Fitzpatrick and Howard both practiced with the 2nd team, which is why Howard was Fitzpatrick's favorite RZ target.

Fair point.  I didnt bother with the wilson/Fitz splits because the Air raid offense is QB friendly so even the average NFL who can hit most throws should be prolific which was why fitz looked like a stud early on. 

And excellent context about fitz having rapport with OJ, I never considered that

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, Winston played IN 5 of them for a total of 3.5 FULL games during the QB carousel in 2018.

 

His best season with Arians was 98 targets, 76 catches, 789 yards, 6 TD's.  Best season after Arians was 101 targets, 71 catches, 816 yards, 8 TD's.

 

Cool.

 

He also missed a game in 2012 from his torn ACL.  Not sure how much of the game he missed when he was injured.  His volume went up after Arians.

We can also compare the seasons with 2 TDs.  He played 16 games in 2011 with 631 yards and 2 TDs.

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22 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

1.  Vacant targets as an absolute number  is a bad process because you are assuming those targets will be replicated when they dont necessarily have to be. Case in point Seattle eliminated about 125 targets from their offense last season and made the playoffs.

 

This theory would make sense if the Bucs gave you ANY reason to believe they want to run the ball more.  You know like adding a RB or a some pieces to the offensive line.  Maybe not getting rid of good defenders like Kwon Alexander.  They don't have JPP.  They may not even have Gerald McCoy.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I'm not spinning anything as a negative, I'm poking fun at you consistently stating what they did LAST YEAR as if this is the exact same team as last year when the fact is this is a completely different team with new coaching, schemes and personnel  integrating with what remains from last year.

 

I've never said it was the same team. The team is clearly different, but last year's core is still in place and the coaching staff was upgraded in a big way. The team will likely continue to put up monster passing totals, nothing they have done would indicate otherwise.

 

Edited by MJJ28

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4 Offensive Players Primed to Make Their First Pro Bowl

O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

O.J. Howard entered the league as one of the most athletic tight-end prospects we've seen in quite some time, but injuries have slowed him down a bit. Even so, Howard has put that explosive athleticism to good use, averaging 16.6 yards per reception in back-to-back seasons. That was first among TEs last season, even more than established deep threats like Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones. Howard also tallied 565 yards receiving and five touchdowns in 2018 despite only playing in 10 games. If Howard can stay healthy, he has a real shot at making his first Pro Bowl in head coach Bruce Arians' high-octane offense.

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/4-offensive-players-primed-to-make-their-first-pro-bowl-01dbate9k2e9

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14 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

This theory would make sense if the Bucs gave you ANY reason to believe they want to run the ball more.  You know like adding a RB or a some pieces to the offensive line.  Maybe not getting rid of good defenders like Kwon Alexander.  They don't have JPP.  They may not even have Gerald McCoy.

 

You know I am actually bullish on peyton+ jones, I just havent figured out which one is the best bet to become the primary for the season. I think Arians will solve the problem with the running game. They lost 11 games last season because they couldnt run the ball despite all of the prolific passing.

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9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I've never said it was the same team. The team is clearly different, but last year's core is still in place and the coaching staff was upgraded in a big way. The team will likely continue to put up monster passing totals, nothing they have done would indicate otherwise.

 

All of those monster passing yards resulted in 5 wins and bottom of the division. 8 games sub 100 yards on the ground, It didnt work so I don't expect the same process. They have to be able to run the ball to help their defense not pass more.

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18 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

4 Offensive Players Primed to Make Their First Pro Bowl

O.J. Howard, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

O.J. Howard entered the league as one of the most athletic tight-end prospects we've seen in quite some time, but injuries have slowed him down a bit. Even so, Howard has put that explosive athleticism to good use, averaging 16.6 yards per reception in back-to-back seasons. That was first among TEs last season, even more than established deep threats like Brandin Cooks and Julio Jones. Howard also tallied 565 yards receiving and five touchdowns in 2018 despite only playing in 10 games. If Howard can stay healthy, he has a real shot at making his first Pro Bowl in head coach Bruce Arians' high-octane offense.

https://www.fanduel.com/theduel/posts/4-offensive-players-primed-to-make-their-first-pro-bowl-01dbate9k2e9

you really love these blog writers prediction hype content. . . because after all OJ is "PRIMED"!!  😂

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Let's all just wait with bated breath for the preseason game where OJ catches a deep ball for a  50yd score and his ADP moves up to round 3. . .🤪

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You know I am actually bullish on peyton+ jones, I just havent figured out which one is the best bet to become the primary for the season. I think Arians will solve the problem with the running game. They lost 11 games last season because they couldnt run the ball despite all of the prolific passing.

 

They had one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That's why they had to throw so much last year.

Todd Bowles is a huge upgrade at DC.  They drafted MLB and 3 DBs with their first 4 picks in a deep defensive draft.  It was a solid draft and the defense should be better.  Arians also brought in his old scrub RBs from the Cardinals.  That's amusing.  I agree that Arians can address the running game, but they desperately needed defense year 1.  Evans and Godwin can help open up the running game.  I think Howard is a stud, but running games need blockers.  If Brate is the better blocker and Arians wants to run the ball, that's not good for Howard.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Let's all just wait with bated breath for the preseason game where OJ catches a deep ball for a  50yd score and his ADP moves up to round 3. . .🤪

 

Does he get hurt on the play?  LOL

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