Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

you really love these blog writers prediction hype content. . . because after all OJ is "PRIMED"!!  😂

No offense, but believe it or not I enjoy the content and opinion of blog writers as much as I do yours 😮.

And yes, I think discussing OJ Howards Pro-Bowl potential is slightly more interesting than discussing the potential of his JAG backup.

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2 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

No offense, but believe it or not I enjoy the content and opinion of blog writers as much as I do yours 😮.

And yes, I think discussing OJ Howards Pro-Bowl potential is slightly more interesting than discussing the potential of his JAG backup.

 

Duly noted and respected! 👍

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6 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

They had one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That's why they had to throw so much last year.

Todd Bowles is a huge upgrade at DC.  They drafted MLB and 3 DBs with their first 4 picks in a deep defensive draft.  It was a solid draft and the defense should be better.  Arians also brought in his old scrub RBs from the Cardinals.  That's amusing.  I agree that Arians can address the running game, but they desperately needed defense year 1.  Evans and Godwin can help open up the running game.  I think Howard is a stud, but running games need blockers.  If Brate is the better blocker and Arians wants to run the ball, that's not good for Howard.

 

Good point it slipped my mind bowles is the DC he will be changing that entire scheme for the better

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11 minutes ago, jmausen said:

They had one of the worst defenses in the NFL.  That's why they had to throw so much last year.

Todd Bowles is a huge upgrade at DC.  They drafted MLB and 3 DBs with their first 4 picks in a deep defensive draft.  It was a solid draft and the defense should be better. 

Defense better?  They lost Kwon Alexander, Jason Pierre-Paul, Gerald McCoy, Adarius Taylor, and Josh Shaw.   You think adding 4 rookies is going to make them better in spite of that?

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

Defense better?  They lost Kwon Alexander, Jason Pierre-Paul, Gerald McCoy, Adarius Taylor, and Josh Shaw.   You think adding 4 rookies is going to make them better in spite of that?

 

Coaches make defenses better.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Good point it slipped my mind bowles is the DC he will be changing that entire scheme for the better

 

Arians runs up scores and passes the ball late in games regardless of the size of the lead.

 

A strong defense does not limit offensive opportunity on Arians coached teams. A good defense will just give them more opportunity to run more plays and score more points. Very similar to Belichick and McVay in that regard.

Edited by MJJ28

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2 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Arians runs up scores and passes the ball late in games regardless of the size of the lead.

 

A strong defense does not limit offensive opportunity on Arians coached teams. Very similar to Belichick and McVay in that regard.

 

Good point!

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2019/preseason/chris-godwin-probably-wont-catch-100-balls-it-doesnt-matter

Good article.  Arians wants to get 100 catches from 2 WRs.  Not a lot of target distribution.

 

Last year the qb with the 15th most completions was Dak with 354 (Carson palmer had a very similar completion count). Carson had a much better run game, winston may still need to throw 40 times a game which should lead to more completions.

Even if 2 wrs got 100 receptions (unlikely) theres still 154 more completions to go around. 

Tightend doesnt need a whole lot to be impactful. Jared cook had 68 last year as the TE5 with only 6tds. I think OJ could easily put up jared cook numbers but probably not george kittle numbers. 

Edited by Stonej14

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Duly noted and respected! 👍

No disrespect intended my friend. I do appreciate your contributions, and I also enjoy reading/sharing opinions from outside the forum. Not that they’re necessarily any more or less insightful than the opinions expressed by those in the forum, just a different voice. The forum can take them for what they’re worth.

 

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27 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Arians runs up scores and passes the ball late in games regardless of the size of the lead.

 

A strong defense does not limit offensive opportunity on Arians coached teams. A good defense will just give them more opportunity to run more plays and score more points. Very similar to Belichick and McVay in that regard.

very true but a good defense gives the offense shorter fields of play so less targets but better scoring opportunity 

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Last year the qb with the 15th most completions was Dak with 354 (Carson palmer had a very similar completion count). Carson had a much better run game, winston may still need to throw 40 times a game which should lead to more completions.

Even if 2 wrs got 100 receptions (unlikely) theres still 154 more completions to go around. 

Tightend doesnt need a whole lot to be impactful. Jared cook had 68 last year as the TE5 with only 6tds. I think OJ could easily put up jared cook numbers but probably not george kittle numbers. 

 

Good point.  It's a thin position.  I like Engram's and Vance McDonald's situations.  Cook is also going to a better place.  

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

very true but a good defense gives the offense shorter fields of play so less targets but better scoring opportunity 

 

And that's why Eli Manning sucks!  Bad defense = bad field position / fewer TDs / more punts.

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29 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

Good point.  It's a thin position.  I like Engram's and Vance McDonald's situations.  Cook is also going to a better place.  

 

But unless you have a top-3 TE, its not a game changer.  Even a top-6 TE gives you only a slight W2W advantage.  

 

I think Howard is almost guaranteed to finish as a low-end TE1.  The question is can he become a top-3 TE this year.  Based on Arians' play calling history for 3 franchises (PIT, IND, ARI), Howard's blocking ability (making him an extra OL for the deep routes which are the staple of an Arians offense), Brate's RZ chemistry with Winston, and the other main weapons (Evans, Godwin), I wouldn't be optimistic. 

 

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2 hours ago, jmausen said:

 

https://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2019/preseason/chris-godwin-probably-wont-catch-100-balls-it-doesnt-matter

Good article.  Arians wants to get 100 catches from 2 WRs.  Not a lot of target distribution.

It doesn't say that at all.  If fact, he showed that Arians has never gotten 100 catches from 2 different WR's.  Not even close actually.

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It doesn't say that at all.  If fact, he showed that Arians has never gotten 100 catches from 2 different WR's.  Not even close actually.

2016: 107 and 80 is pretty close.  80 was DJ.

2017 was an interesting year: Arians finished 8-8 with 3 starting QBs and 4 starting RBs.  The man can coach!

Arians is talking up Godwin.  Wants him playing Larry Fitz's role in the offense with 100 catches.  I don't see a world where Evans gets fewer than 80.  The writer makes good points.  Few teams have done this and it doesn't leave many targets for other players.

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18 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It doesn't say that at all.  If fact, he showed that Arians has never gotten 100 catches from 2 different WR's.  Not even close actually.

 

Catches are dependent upon multiple variables but namely the QB delivering a catchable ball and the wr securing it for a catch but I think it's more relevant for drafting that  for 8 out of 14 seasons his wr2 had over 100 targets and 10/14 over 90 targets which is a good indicator Godwin will finish as a  fantasy wr2.

But again godwin+evans are not the obstacle for oj opportunity for production,  brate is.

So no one is betting on Arians making OJ a primary pass catcher in the Kelce mold with a 26% market share?  😜

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

2016: 107 and 80 is pretty close.

 

No, it really isn't.

 

1 hour ago, jmausen said:

2017 was an interesting year: Arians finished 8-8 with 3 starting QBs and 4 starting RBs.  The man can coach!

Okay?  How does that hurt OJ Howard?

 

1 hour ago, jmausen said:

 I don't see a world where Evans gets fewer than 80.

He's done so 3 of his 5 seasons in the league.

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1 hour ago, jmausen said:

Few teams have done this and it doesn't leave many targets for other players.

160 vacant targets from last season.

 

Last year Mike Evans received 138.  Chris Godwin 98.  How many more targets do you see these guys getting in 2019?

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36 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

160 vacant targets from last season.

 

Last year Mike Evans received 138.  Chris Godwin 98.  How many more targets do you see these guys getting in 2019?

 

I don't see how 160 targets from last year's coaching staff effects anything.

Their offensive line, running game, and defense were all garbage last year.  Better defense (coaching) yields better field position, and maybe leads.  Arians targets 2 receivers and runs the ball.  Howard will need to be an efficient redzone target.

Godwin's targets are 150-170 for 100 catches.  Evans stays about the same.  That puts them both around WR 10.

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50 minutes ago, jmausen said:

Their offensive line, running game, and defense were all garbage last year. 

True, but very strange to act like anything has changed.

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PSA - please keep the discussion focused on the player and not other posters. 

Several posts in the last several pages of the thread are skirting the lines of personal attacks.  Please be mindful of how other posters may read/interpret the tone of your posts.

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8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

True, but very strange to act like anything has changed.

 

Arians and Bowels are different.  Sometimes, it's not the players fault.  They just need better coaching.

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

160 vacant targets from last season.

 

Last year Mike Evans received 138.  Chris Godwin 98.  How many more targets do you see these guys getting in 2019?

 

Evans should get about 160 and Godwin 120.  That's 44 from the 160 vacant, leaving 116 between other WRs (Perriman, etc.), Brate, RBs who don't have stone hands, and Howard. 

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Brate underwent arthroscopic surgery in January. He was reportedly cleared to run routes in April, but he is still not practicing. Brate will fill in behind O.J. Howard once he is healthy.

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