Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

Brate underwent arthroscopic surgery in January. He was reportedly cleared to run routes in April, but he is still not practicing. Brate will fill in behind O.J. Howard once he is healthy.

yup he played injured in every 2018 season game. 

What I am curious about is with the injury+contract+ OJ emerging, why did Arians and the GM KEEP him?

They could have traded him before his  2019 7mm guaranteed salary kicked in. 

It doesnt make sense to pay a TE 7mm to  be the backup. 

So if he is on the roster come Sep 1, it would be foolish to think the coaches don't use him on a regular basis in the offense.

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3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Evans should get about 160 and Godwin 120.  That's 44 from the 160 vacant, leaving 116 between other WRs (Perriman, etc.), Brate, RBs who don't have stone hands, and Howard. 

Even if that were true..

 

Perriman, really?  Brate got 30 targets last year in a season that he was the starter for 7 games.  Nothing is changing for him except for LESS targets in 2019.  All of the RB's on the Bucs have stone hands expect for maybe Barber who isn't a great pass catcher either.

 

Howard was the TE #5 in ppg with what would have been extrapolated to around 85 targets in a full season.  He doesn't need many more than that to be worth a pick in the late 5th or early 6th round.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

They could have traded him before his  2019 7mm guaranteed salary kicked in. 

It doesnt make sense to pay a TE 7mm to  be the backup. 

Who is trading for Brate with that contract?

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who is trading for Brate with that contract?

 

Sux for OJ owners. . .😱

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who is trading for Brate with that contract?

It does not matter why no hypothetical trade partner for Brate emerged if Brate is still on the Buc's roster when week 1 arrives.  The Howard truthers think Brate is a non-entity and a non-factor, but it is evident that the decisionmakers on the Bucs do not share that view.

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

yup he played injured in every 2018 season game. 

What I am curious about is with the injury+contract+ OJ emerging, why did Arians and the GM KEEP him?

They could have traded him before his  2019 7mm guaranteed salary kicked in. 

It doesnt make sense to pay a TE 7mm to  be the backup. 

So if he is on the roster come Sep 1, it would be foolish to think the coaches don't use him on a regular basis in the offense.

 

While I personally believe OJ will be fine this year it would not be prudent to cut Brate when OJ has had season ending injuries his first 2 seasons. 

I think they keep Brate to block and get a handful of RZ targets and as insurance in case OJ gets hurt for a 3rd season in a row.

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9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

yup he played injured in every 2018 season game. 

What I am curious about is with the injury+contract+ OJ emerging, why did Arians and the GM KEEP him?

They could have traded him before his  2019 7mm guaranteed salary kicked in. 

It doesnt make sense to pay a TE 7mm to  be the backup. 

So if he is on the roster come Sep 1, it would be foolish to think the coaches don't use him on a regular basis in the offense.

 

OJ isn't leaving the field regardless of what they do with Brate, as OJ is better than Brate at every aspect of the game, so your concerns are unfounded. The effect of Brate on OJs potential as a pass catcher is the same as any other pass catcher that gets 20-30 receptions in a season and a TD here or there, negligible.

 

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5 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

While I personally believe OJ will be fine this year it would not be prudent to cut Brate when OJ has had season ending injuries his first 2 seasons. 

I think they keep Brate to block and get a handful of RZ targets and as insurance in case OJ gets hurt for a 3rd season in a row.

OJ has only 2 years as a pro and played in the national championship his senior year..thinking of the wrong person?

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

While I personally believe OJ will be fine this year it would not be prudent to cut Brate when OJ has had season ending injuries his first 2 seasons. 

I think they keep Brate to block and get a handful of RZ targets and as insurance in case OJ gets hurt for a 3rd season in a row.

7mm guaranteed is a lot if you view him as a backup TE. The fact is he would be a bona fide starter on 25 other NFL teams. . . he would probably be a PAT if they released him before his guarantee deadline.  I'm sure there have been trade discussions for him but the Bucs have locked him in.

 

NFL's highest paid tight ends (average salary per year):

1. Packers TE Jimmy Graham: $10 million
2. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: $9.4 million
3. Redskins TE Jordan Reed: $9.4 million
4. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski: $9 million
5. Panthers TE Greg Olsen: $8.6 million
6. Eagles TE Zach Ertz: $8.5 million
7. Titans TE Delanie Walker: $8.5 million
8. Bears TE Trey Burton: $8 million
9. Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph: $7.3 million
10. Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: $6.8 million

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8 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

It does not matter why no hypothetical trade partner for Brate emerged if Brate is still on the Buc's roster when week 1 arrives.  The Howard truthers think Brate is a non-entity and a non-factor, but it is evident that the decisionmakers on the Bucs do not share that view.

 

Brate caught 30 passes last year even while OJ missed a bunch of games. His overall share of the passing offense is so incredibly small that it's not even worth thinking about.

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

OJ has only 2 years as a pro and played in the national championship his senior year..thinking of the wrong person?

 

Do what?

OJ played 14 NFL games in 2017

He played 10 NFL games in 2018

If he were to get hurt and miss games again in 2019 that would make 3 seasons in a row. That is why it's prudent to keep Brate around for now.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

7mm guaranteed is a lot if you view him as a backup TE. The fact is he would be a bona fide starter on 25 other NFL teams. . . he would probably be a PAT if they released him before his guarantee deadline.  I'm sure there have been trade discussions for him but the Bucs have locked him in.

 

NFL's highest paid tight ends (average salary per year):

1. Packers TE Jimmy Graham: $10 million
2. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce: $9.4 million
3. Redskins TE Jordan Reed: $9.4 million
4. Patriots TE Rob Gronkowski: $9 million
5. Panthers TE Greg Olsen: $8.6 million
6. Eagles TE Zach Ertz: $8.5 million
7. Titans TE Delanie Walker: $8.5 million
8. Bears TE Trey Burton: $8 million
9. Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph: $7.3 million
10. Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate: $6.8 million

 

Brate was all that and they still drafted OJ. Bucs are in a tight spot but if they can swing it financially until it is time to extend OJ then it is prudent to keep Brate or try and keep him till you can get some draft capital for him as opposed to just outright cutting him. Similar to what Minnesota is doing with kyle rudolph right now.

Brates presence isn't a huge detriment to OJ, he was there last year and OJ was well on his way to being a top 5 TE anyway before his injury. It's frugal to keep Brate for now and try to increase his value for a trade as opposed to releasing him and getting nothing for a TE you say would start for so many other teams.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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Just now, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Do what?

OJ played 14 NFL games in 2017

He played 10 NFL games in 2018

If he were to get hurt and miss games again in 2019 that would make 3 seasons in a row. That is why it's prudent to keep Brate around for now.

He ankle twisted awkwardly so it's not like he has a chronic issue. Any player can get knocked to IR on a given play

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

He ankle twisted awkwardly so it's not like he has a chronic issue. Any player can get knocked to IR on a given play

 

I didn't say he had chronic injuries. 

I am simply stating the reality of the situation. Wich is he hasn't played a full 16 game slate. Team management might view that as a reason to pay Brate another season to make sure OJ doesn't get another fluke injury this season as well. It's just a prudent move since OJ salary is so reasonable being on his rookie contract.

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3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

OJ isn't leaving the field regardless of what they do with Brate, as OJ is better than Brate at every aspect of the game, so your concerns are unfounded. The effect of Brate on OJs potential as a pass catcher is the same as any other pass catcher that gets 20-30 receptions in a season and a TD here or there, negligible.

 

OJ doesnt have to leave the field. .you have heard of 2 TE sets? And no the effect is not the same depending on the scheme/package and play calls. 

I also don't know why you insist target share is negligible when the  3 man TE group in TB splits 23% for the last 2 seasons. 

The current #1 TE  Kelce has had 25% and 27% ALONE the last 2 seasons. 

It's almost as if you are not grasping the concept of target share in an offense as it pertains to positions because you keep referring to an absolute # of targets/receptions that may or may not be available. 

Are you saying Oj's target share is going to increase from 12% to 20-25%?   I wouldnt argue against the probability but I think that would be difficult as long as brate is on the field  or  you would need the coaches to reduce the target share of the collective wr group. 

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30 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who is trading for Brate with that contract?

 

hmmm, the buffalo bills had two TEs leave practice today with injuries, leaving them with two rookies to start at TE...

and they have 7.6 million available to play with.

this is my hope as a OJ Howard owner in dynasty

 

Bratebill.jpg

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17 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate caught 30 passes last year even while OJ missed a bunch of games. His overall share of the passing offense is so incredibly small that it's not even worth thinking about.

 

yet the TE target share goup  and splits have collectively been consistent last 2 seasons at 23%  the  te1 -12% te2 -8% te3 -3%

Listen i get you want to ignore the actual numbers but you are arguing against facts by saying things like 'incredibly small' and 'negligible'. . .😂

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

He ankle twisted awkwardly so it's not like he has a chronic issue. Any player can get knocked to IR on a given play

 

And he was held out longer than necessary due to the fact the Bucs had nothing to play for.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

yet the TE target share goup  and splits have collectively been consistent last 2 seasons at 23%  the  te1 -12% te2 -8% te3 -3%

Listen i get you want to ignore the actual numbers but you are arguing against facts by saying things like 'incredibly small' and 'negligible'. . .😂

 

Brate's target share of the overall passing game last year was 8%. This was with increased playing time to due another pass catcher, OJ, getting hurt. Brate is a distant ancillary piece of the offense that isn't holding anyone back from seizing opportunity.

Given that multiple TEs can and will be on the field at the same time, it makes no sense to view them outside of the context of the overall passing offense.

Edited by MJJ28

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25 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

It does not matter why no hypothetical trade partner for Brate emerged if Brate is still on the Buc's roster when week 1 arrives.  The Howard truthers think Brate is a non-entity and a non-factor, but it is evident that the decisionmakers on the Bucs do not share that view.

Yes his whopping 30 targets last year (even without Howard for 7 games) is a great indicator of that 

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, dashoe said:

OJ doesnt have to leave the field. .you have heard of 2 TE sets? And no the effect is not the same depending on the scheme/package and play calls. 

I also don't know why you insist target share is negligible when the  3 man TE group in TB splits 23% for the last 2 seasons. 

The current #1 TE  Kelce has had 25% and 27% ALONE the last 2 seasons. 

It's almost as if you are not grasping the concept of target share in an offense as it pertains to positions because you keep referring to an absolute # of targets/receptions that may or may not be available. 

Are you saying Oj's target share is going to increase from 12% to 20-25%?   I wouldnt argue against the probability but I think that would be difficult as long as brate is on the field  or  you would need the coaches to reduce the target share of the collective wr group. 

 

There is no reason to compare OJ to Kelce. Kelce is an early 2nd rounder, OJ is a 5th/6th. OJ can do exactly what he did last year and be worth the pick, so long as he plays all the games. The fact that he has an extremely large opportunity to improve given development as a player and increased opportunity (target vacuum) is pure value.

Edited by MJJ28

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39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Are you saying Oj's target share is going to increase from 12% to 20-25%? 

That's exactly what supporters are saying.

 

He had a 12% target share IN NINE GAMES!!!!!!!

 

Your argument is built on total number when OJ didn't play a full season.  It's very odd.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

There is no reason to compare OJ to Kelce. Kelce is an early 2nd rounder, OJ is a 5th/6th. OJ can do exactly what he did last year and be worth the pick, so long as he plays all the games. The fact that he has an extremely large opportunity to improve given development as a player and increased opportunity (target vacuum) is pure value.

Ok we don't have to use Kelce and instead i will give you another comp.

Are you ready?

 

So you want to talk "pure value"? . . .🤣

Hunter Henry is currently trading end of 6th round AFTER  Howard who fluctuates between end of 5th early 6th

 The value is taking the TE who has the opportunity to  capture the historical:

23% share of passing yardage and 32% of  TD's 

30% rz target share and 39% rz TD's

from Rivers when he has 1 TE 

There is no other TE on the Bolts roster to compete with Henry 🌈

 

Do you think Arains/winston is going to allocate those % to OJ. . . . i'm not a buyer of that view so i'll take the potential of the cheaper or equal price Henry over OJ

 

Edited by dashoe

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18 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

That's exactly what supporters are saying.

 

He had a 12% target share IN NINE GAMES!!!!!!!

 

Your argument is built on total number when OJ didn't play a full season.  It's very odd.

No my numbers are based on the %splits of target share regardless of games played.  Share of 23% to the position has been consistent the last 2yrs regardless of who was te1,2,3

I understand you are focused on EXTRAPOLATION but extrapolation never really works out the way people think given random weekly outcomes of games, yet %share of  offense is very consistent when it comes to positions

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

No my numbers are based on the %splits of target share regardless of games played.  Share of 23% to the position has been consistent the last 2yrs regardless of who was te1,2,3

I understand you are focused on EXTRAPOLATION but extrapolation never really works out the way people think given random weekly outcomes of games, yet %share of  offense is very consistent when it comes to positions

Where was Virgil green when hunter Henry went down? Contrary to popular belief, he did NOT play in 2018.

 

Or were targets distributed outside the TE position when the talented guy went down?

Edited by bhawks489

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