Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Where was Virgil green when hunter Henry went down? Contrary to popular belief, he did NOT play in 2018.

Virgil never panned out as talent.  Rivers historical TE numbers are based on antonio gates and ladarius  and even henry in his sophmore season.

Henry is the better value if value is what people are looking for between the two

Edited by dashoe

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Virgil never panned out as talent.  Rivers historical TE numbers are based on antonio gates and ladarius  and even henry in his sophmore season.

Henry is the better value if value is what people are looking for 

But the TE should thrive in SD, why didn't that happen last year?

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

But the TE should thrive in SD, why didn't that happen last year?

an old past prime Antonio coming off his retirement couch+ untalented virgil+injured Hunter.  . that's what happened. . .😂

 

You are asking the wrong question. The proper question is what do you think the outlook is for a healthy Hunter this year with regards to targets share vs OJ given they can both be obtained in the 6th rd? 

in 2017 henry 15%  + gates 9%  passing  share= 24%. .

rz  20%+ 15%=  35% 

ez 22%+19% =  41%

I am quite confident Henry can secure 25% across the 3 categories as the primary TE with virgil playing behind him

Again I prefer to bet on the potential value of a Rivers TE1 as the primary vs the winston TE1 splitting with Brate

 

Who are you willing to bet on with the same draft capital? 🤔

 

Edited by dashoe

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

an old past prime Antonio+ untalented virgil+injured Hunter.  . that's what happened. . .😂

 

You are asking the wrong question. The proper question is what do you think the outlook is for a healthy Hunter this year with regards to targets share vs OJ given they can both be obtained in the 6th rd? 

in 2017 henry 15%  + gates 9%  passing  share= 24%. .

rz  20%+ 15%=  35% 

ez 22%+19% =  41%

I am quite confident Henry can secure 25% across the 3 categories as the primary TE with virgil playing behind him

Again I prefer to bet on the potential value of a Rivers TE as the primary vs the winston TE splitting with Brate

 

Who are you willing to bet on with the same draft capital? 🤔

 

I have Kelce-OJ-Kittle-Ertz-Henry so not far off but I'd take OJ.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

an old past prime Antonio coming off his retirement couch+ untalented virgil+injured Hunter.  . that's what happened. . .😂

 

You are asking the wrong question. The proper question is what do you think the outlook is for a healthy Hunter this year with regards to targets share vs OJ given they can both be obtained in the 6th rd? 

in 2017 henry 15%  + gates 9%  passing  share= 24%. .

rz  20%+ 15%=  35% 

ez 22%+19% =  41%

I am quite confident Henry can secure 25% across the 3 categories as the primary TE with virgil playing behind him

Again I prefer to bet on the potential value of a Rivers TE1 as the primary vs the winston TE1 splitting with Brate

 

Who are you willing to bet on with the same draft capital? 🤔

 

 

Henry projects as the 4th passing option (behind Allen, Williams, and whoever is in at RB) on an offense that is generally lower volume..

OJ projects to be the #3 on what should be a high volume passing offense.

OJ is the better talent and isn't coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.

I'll take Howard, without a doubt.

Edited by MJJ28
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16 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Henry projects as the 4th passing option (behind Allen, Williams, and whoever is in at RB) on an offense that is generally lower volume..

OJ projects to be the #3 on what should be a high volume passing offense.

OJ is the better talent and isn't coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.

I'll take Howard, without a doubt.

 

What are you basing OJ being more talented on? 

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27 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

What are you basing OJ being more talented on? 

 

How they play football.

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32 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Film from high school, college, and NFL levels.

 

I think you meant 'he went to Alabama'.

 

You've at least watched them both play a bunch. Doubt OP watched a single Arkansas game when Henry was there. 

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Henry projects as the 4th passing option (behind Allen, Williams, and whoever is in at RB) on an offense that is generally lower volume..

OJ projects to be the #3 on what should be a high volume passing offense.

OJ is the better talent and isn't coming off major reconstructive knee surgery.

I'll take Howard, without a doubt.

If healthy, Hunter Henry is much closer to being the number two option in the passing game than he is to number four, taking into account the quality of the targets as opposed to simple raw numbers.  Talking critical third down, red zone, and end zone usage.  OJ Howard is really good but no Bruce Arians offense has ever funneled opportunities to the TE the way Phillip did with Hunter Henry when healthy.

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19 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If healthy, Hunter Henry is much closer to being the number two option in the passing game than he is to number four, taking into account the quality of the targets as opposed to simple raw numbers.  Talking critical third down, red zone, and end zone usage.  OJ Howard is really good but no Bruce Arians offense has ever funneled opportunities to the TE the way Phillip did with Hunter Henry when healthy.

 

No Anthony Lynn offense has funneled opportunities to the TE either, so I don't see why the coaching argument applies to the Bucs but not the Chargers.

Of course you didn't acknowledge that though. You cited the Rivers-TE connection when Jameis has a very strong TE connection as well, which you conveniently ignored.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

No Anthony Lynn offense has funneled opportunities to the TE either, so I don't see why the coaching argument applies to the Bucs but not the Chargers.

Of course you didn't acknowledge that though. You cited the Rivers-TE connection when Jameis has a very strong TE connection as well, which you conveniently ignored.

 

1.  Lynn was HC in 2017 correct?

Are you sure I didnt give you 2017 TE information? 👇

Posted 3 hours ago

in 2017 henry 15%  + gates 9%  passing  share= 24%. .

rz  20%+ 15%=  35% 

ez 22%+19% =  41%

Looks like the TE position got a load of target share in 2017. . .  rz= 35% and 41% endzone targets is PHENOMENAL

Gates is retired and the backup is virgil, hunter henry is a TE1 with no issues of splits to the position unlike OJ

You really should do a touch of research or at least actually read my previous posts where I already PROVIDED THE INFORMATION. . . 🤓

 

2. jamesis does have a strong TE connection.. .  with BRATE😂

 

It feels like you are grasping at straws here in the face of FACTS.  I'm not saying OJ sux, I'm only poking a gaping hole in your 5/6th rd value argument. henry is currently cheaper than OJ so thats the real value.

Edited by dashoe
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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

1.  Lynn was HC in 2017 correct?

Are you sure I didnt give you 2017 TE information? 👇

Posted 3 hours ago

in 2017 henry 15%  + gates 9%  passing  share= 24%. .

rz  20%+ 15%=  35% 

ez 22%+19% =  41%

Looks like the TE position got a load of target share in 2017. . .  rz= 35% and 41% endzone targets is PHENOMENAL

Gates is retired and the backup is virgil, hunter henry is a TE1 with no issues of splits to the position unlike OJ

You really should do a touch of research or at least actually read my previous posts where I already PROVIDED THE INFORMATION. . . 🤓

 

2. jamesis does have a strong TE connection.. .  with BRATE😂

 

It feels like you are grasping at straws here in the face of FACTS.  I'm not saying OJ sux, I'm only poking a gaping hole in your 5/6th rd value argument. henry is currently cheaper than OJ so thats the real value.

 

1. Target share percentages aren’t all that valuable when volume is low.

 

2017 saw the Chargers TEs receive 121 targets.

Thats the same amount Arians gave to the illustrious TE grouping of Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Weslye Saunders, and Dominique Jones in 2012.

2. Rivers has a strong connection with GATES 😂

 

Also, the Chargers brought in a far superior RZ option in Mike Williams so if you expect Henry’s %s to hold you are in for a major surprise. Also, Henry is coming off major knee reconstruction so most certainly not the player he was in 2017.

 

 

Edited by MJJ28

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

Virgil never panned out as talent.  Rivers historical TE numbers are based on antonio gates and ladarius  and even henry in his sophmore season.

Henry is the better value if value is what people are looking for between the two

 

I got super confused for a second confusing him for Ladarius. He was on the Chargers too. I remember being pumped to 'steal' both of them at my drafts.

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Since we love target %'s so much here one for you.

 

In 2009 Bruce Arians gave HEATH MILLER an 18.3% target share.

 

So crazy to think he might give O.J. Howard that or more based on the fact the Howard is twice the player Miller is

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18 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

1. Target share percentages aren’t all that valuable when volume is low.

dashoe 👉2017 Charges were #1 in passing yards,  #8 in passing attempts  583 vs  #1 team 608 = 28 differential, #8 passing td's . . .

So please tell us how the share percentages don't matter because your statement does not align with the facts

 

2. 2017 saw the Chargers TEs receive 121 targets. Thats the same amount Arians gave to the illustrious TE grouping of Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener, Weslye Saunders, and Dominique Jones in 2012.

dashoe👉I fail to see the point of this data. maybe you should elaborate but it is interesting you had to go back to 2012 when Arians was an OC to find the equivalent number of targets for the chargers vs colts TE group. . . proving nothing?

What does that have to do with Hunter henry having no competition for target share in the TE position 😂

 

3. Rivers has a strong connection with GATES 😂

dashoe👉And now Rivers will have one with Hunter alone with Gates gone whilst OJ shares  the Jamesis connection with BRATE. . . 🤪

 

also not sure why you think mike williams hurts hunters target share withe tyrell gone and with regards to the injury we will see if he can play at a high level post injury. I never said he was a lock to be a stud I said he is better value than OJ for the draft capital . 👀

You have confirmed my view that you really dont have a strong argument to make on this topic. You consistently don't support any of your positions with relevant data. Keep bringing them and i will do my best to continue shredding your points 

 

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Since we love target %'s so much here one for you.

 

In 2009 Bruce Arians gave HEATH MILLER an 18.3% target share.

 

So crazy to think he might give O.J. Howard that or more based on the fact the Howard is twice the player Miller is

I think  I already made that point many posts ago that you may possibly see the te  group increase share from 23% to 28% or 30%  or you can make the bet that Arians goes all in and makes OJ into kelce with a 25% share but I find that scenario to be unlikely with Mike evans + brate+godwin+perriman+watson+miller+ 2 rb's.

Do you guys even read my posts or do you simply want to post  and like each other on how awesome OJ is and you believe he is going to be a stud if you EXTRAPOLATE for the missed games from last season?😜

i'm giving you free info here to help the draft process 👁️

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I go out for a coffee and there's 5 pages of discussion on Howard vs Brate.

In May.

tenor.gif

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56 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think  I already made that point many posts ago that you may possibly see the te  group increase share from 23% to 28% or 30%  or you can make the bet that Arians goes all in and makes OJ into kelce with a 25% share but I find that scenario to be unlikely with Mike evans + brate+godwin+perriman+watson+miller+ 2 rb's.

Do you guys even read my posts or do you simply want to post  and like each other on how awesome OJ is and you believe he is going to be a stud if you EXTRAPOLATE for the missed games from last season?😜

i'm giving you free info here to help the draft process 👁️

 

What generally happens is someone new jumps in every 5 or 6 pages, and people re-discuss the same exact things every couple of weeks. 

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58 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think I already made that point many posts ago that you may possibly see the te group increase share from 23% to 28% or 30% or you can make the bet that Arians goes all in and makes OJ into kelce with a 25% share but I find that scenario to be unlikely with Mike evans + brate+godwin+perriman+watson+miller+ 2 rb's.

If you actually see these guys as a threat to hold O.J. Howard back in total targets or even "target %" you're obviously just here to troll.

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54 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I think  I already made that point many posts ago that you may possibly see the te  group increase share from 23% to 28% or 30%  or you can make the bet that Arians goes all in and makes OJ into kelce with a 25% share but I find that scenario to be unlikely with Mike evans + brate+godwin+perriman+watson+miller+ 2 rb's.

Do you guys even read my posts or do you simply want to post  and like each other on how awesome OJ is and you believe he is going to be a stud if you EXTRAPOLATE for the missed games from last season?😜

i'm giving you free info here to help the draft process 👁️

 

Your posts just don't make much sense at all. If it did people would be more open to them.

You knock Arians' use of TEs compared to Lynn when they have given the exact same volume of targets to TEs in the past.

You seem to think Jameis has some magical connection with Brate that cannot be broken, but then assume Rivers' magical connection with Gates will instantly transfer over to Henry.

You seem to think TEs are isolated from the overall passing scheme and cannot win or lose targets from other position groups.

You tend to ignore talent.

Just poor analysis all around.

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

If you actually see these guys as a threat to hold O.J. Howard back in total targets or even "target %" you're obviously just here to troll.

 

Good answer which has zero value aside from demonstrating that you can't support your point👍

I dont view any of the guys you bolded as a threat per se instead I view them as 5 additional distribution points in a functioning NFL offense but at least  you have inadvertently admitted  that Brate is a threat to hold back OJ. . .🤣

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Your posts just don't make much sense at all. If it did people would be more open to them.

You knock Arians' use of TEs compared to Lynn when they have given the exact same volume of targets to TEs in the past.

You seem to think Jameis has some magical connection with Brate that cannot be broken, but then assume Rivers' magical connection with Gates will instantly transfer over to Henry.

You seem to think TEs are isolated from the overall passing scheme and cannot win or lose targets from other position groups.

You tend to ignore talent.

Just poor analysis all around.

You mean "people" as in the 2  to 3 OJ truthers who persistently dont provide credible arguments and just say he is awesome and tthe offense was ranked #2 last year and all u have to do is EXTRAPOLATE his missed games and Brate is irrelevant?   

Those people?🤣

Also every single one of your statements above is patently false. You obviously have not read a single post I have made in this thread or you couldnt grasp certain concepts. 

I mean you couldnt even admit you were 100% wrong about Lynn not feeding TE's when he  did so as the HC in 2017 with hunter+gates. . .

You truly offer too much false and misguided information and I suggest you do a bit more research rather than posting  fabrications to support what you "think" but don't know. 🤫

Edited by dashoe
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

you can make the bet that Arians goes all in and makes OJ into kelce with a 25% share but I find that scenario to be unlikely with Mike evans + brate+godwin+perriman+watson+miller+ 2 rb's.

 

I find Kelce repeating his target share unlikely with Watkins + Hardman + Robinson + Kemp + Bell + 3 RB's

 

See how that looks?  It's stupid.

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Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I find Kelce repeating his target share unlikely with Watkins + Hardman + Robinson + Kemp + Bell + 3 RB's

 

See how that looks?  It's stupid.

Yes that is probable but historically unlikely because kelce has consistently had at least 25%  target share in Reids offense for 2yrs now because he is the focal point of the passing attack, , ,😱

OJ has only had 8 and 12% over 2yrs and the bucs te group has has had  a consistent 23%.

See how that works?🤣

Why are you making so much effort to deny actual facts and show all that you refuse to accept the obvious?🤓

FYI . ..'Belief' is not a fantasy football metric. . .👋

Reminds me of your relentless denial of davante adams role last preseason.

I will give you credit you will enthusiastically go down as the captain of your sinking tugboat 🤣

Edited by dashoe
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