Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, dashoe said:

You mean "people" as in the 2  to 3 OJ truthers who persistently dont provide credible arguments and just say he is awesome and tthe offense was ranked #2 last year and all u have to do is EXTRAPOLATE his missed games and Brate is irrelevant?   

Those people?🤣

Also every single one of your statements above is patently false. You obviously have not read a single post I have made in this thread or you couldnt grasp certain concepts. 

I mean you couldnt even admit you were 100% wrong about Lynn not feeding TE's when he  did so as the HC in 2017 with hunter+gates. . .

You truly offer too much false and misguided information and I suggest you do a bit more research rather than posting  fabrications to support what you "think" but don't know. 🤫

 

How is it wrong that Lynn doesn’t feed TEs? 

He fed them the exact same totals as Arians did in 2012 and Arians doesn’t feed TEs, remember?

Edited by MJJ28

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Just now, MJJ28 said:

 

How is it wrong that Lynn doesn’t feed TEs? 

He fed them the exact same totals as Arians did in 2012 and Arians doesn’t feed TEs, remember?

 

I answered that with a direct response to your post you can go review it if need be. I gave you the data. 🤘

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I answered that with a direct response to your post you can go review it if need be. I gave you the data. 🤘

 

Here’s some data for you.

2017: Henry + Gates = 114 targets

2012: Allen + Fleener = 114 targets

Does Lynn not target TEs, too, or is Arians perfectly capable of targeting TEs? It can only be one.

 

Edited by MJJ28
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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

If you actually see these guys as a threat to hold O.J. Howard back in total targets or even "target %" you're obviously just here to troll.

Have you watched many Tampa Bay Buc games in the last two years?  The Brate problem is definitely genuine.  They guy gets a lot of looks, especially in the end zone, especially from Jameis Winston.  Dismiss him if you like, but you are making a mistake.

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33 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Yes that is probable but historically unlikely because kelce has consistently had at least 25%  target share in Reids offense for 2yrs now because he is the focal point of the passing attack, , ,😱

 

If you actually thought I was arguing against Kelce you need to read slower.

 

35 minutes ago, dashoe said:

OJ has only had 8 and 12% over 2yrs and the bucs te group has has had a consistent 23%.

 

Yes, a 22 year old TE does not get a ton of targets.  Not even when they're name is Travis Kelce.  Look up the word "progress".

 

It's a completely different coaching staff, remember?  😂

 

39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Reminds me of your relentless denial of davante adams role last preseason.

Oh Em Gee, I was wrong about a fantasy player last season.

 

Apparently now it's your turn.

 

Remember when Adams was going to get more targets because Jordy was gone?  Sounds like a situation we've been discussing for days.  Except Jordy was only 88 targets.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Here’s some data for you.

2017: Henry + Gates = 114 targets

2012: Allen + Fleener = 114 targets

Does Lynn not target TEs, too, or is Arians perfectly capable of targeting TEs? It can only be one.

 

 

Geez I think you are so confused from the way you keep moving the ball that you forgot why you have the ball🤣

I respond to your posts not because i think you are making relevant points, I respond to counter bad information and process that you present in the thread

1. The point  with using the bolts as an example was because you kept emphasizing OJ was a value pick in the 5/6th round so he couldnt be compared to Kelce going in the 2nd and I provided the data that showed you hunter was a better value because he was cheaper than OJ and was in a situation where  a rivers  TE historically gets 24% target share 35% rz share and 45% ez share. and henry doesnt have to split target share as OJ does with Brate.

2. you somehow twisted it into the bolts target share wasnt relevant becase it didnt have volume and when i proved you WRONG AGAIN  you created a new point about an arians te group in 2012 that had the same number of  targets as hunter+gate in 2017? 😂

Try to add some value to this discusiion and maybe pull out your pencil and tell us the target share ,re/ez target share of all arians Te1's

3, so nice try with all of the irrelevant misinformation that dont prove much of anything except when you are proven wrong you keep pivoting to find something to be "right" about😜

4. you didnt prove or support any of your positions and you cant seem to be able to counter actual facts that I present.

5.  Again the point was Hunter henry was a better draft value than OJ. . .this is the ball  👀

Edited by dashoe
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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, dashoe said:

FYI . ..'Belief' is not a fantasy football metric. . .👋

EXACTLY!!

 

The "belief" that OJ Howard's target share won't increase much (despite Humphries and DJax being gone) because Arians "might want to throw the ball to Perriman, Watson, Barber, and Jones more" is not a fantasy football metric.  Logic tells you otherwise.  I made that mistake with Davante Adams.  Learn from my mistake.

 

The "belief" that the Bucs defense will drastically improve (despite losing Kwon Alexander, JPP, and Gerald McCoy) because of a new defensive coordinator is not a fantasy football metric.  It's an opinion, and not a logical one.

 

You keep ignoring logic to fit your argument because of what Bruce Arians did with Jermaine Gresham? 🤔 

Edited by RMJ_12

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Geez I think you are so confused from the way you keep moving the ball that you forgot why you have the ball🤣

I respond to your posts not because i think you are making relevant points, I respond to counter bad information and process that you present in the thread

1. The point  with using the bolts as an example was because you kept emphasizing OJ was a value pick in the 5/6th round so he couldnt be compared to Kelce going in the 2nd and I provided the data that showed you hunter was a better value because he was cheaper than OJ and was in a situation where  a rivers  TE historically gets 24% target share 35% rz share and 45% ez share. and henry doesnt have to split target share as OJ does with Brate.

2. you somehow twisted it into the bolts target share wasnt relevant becase it didnt have volume and when i proved you WRONG AGAIN  you created a new point about an arians te group in 2012 that had the same number of  targets as hunter+gate in 2017? 😂

Try to add some value to this discusiion and maybe pull out your pencil and tell us the target share ,re/ez target share of all arians Te1's

3, so nice try with all of the irrelevant misinformation that dont prove much of anything except when you are proven wrong you keep pivoting to find something to be "right" about😜

4. you didnt prove or support any of your positions and you cant seem to be able to counter actual facts that I present.

5.  Again the point was Hunter henry was a better draft value than OJ. . .this is the ball  👀

 

1. Henry does have to split target share. He has to split with Keenan, Williams, Gordon, Ekeler, and all the other pass catchers SD rolls out.

It's strange how you keep harping on Brate's split of the target share when Evans and Godwin figure to be far more significant target hogs in the TB passing offense.

2. I haven't been trying to "prove" anything, I've just been trying to understand your twisted logic.

You have expressed a lot of concern over the Jameis-Brate connection. You seem to think that will negatively impact OJ. On the other hand, you express no concern over the fact that Rivers and Gates had one of the greatest connections in NFL history. You seem to think Henry can just slide right into target percentages that were a result of that incredible connection, and pick up right where it left off. There is some intellectual dishonesty at play here, clearly.

You've also expressed serious concern over Arians' TE usage. You have never expressed concern over Anthony Lynn's TE usage. This is strange considering that Lynn's highest TE usage season, when he had the excellent duo of Gates and Henry, resulted in 114 targets. I correctly pointed out that Arians matched that utilization in 2012 with the garbage duo of Allen and Fleener. Clearly, more dishonesty at play, especially since you seem to believe that Lynn's TE usage is great, and Arians' usage is bad.

3. I don't see the relevance in digging up all the stats from Arians' TEs since he has never had a TE as capable as Howard. Those stats have as much relevance for the upcoming season as Anthony Lynn's usage of TEs last season. 😉

 

Edited by MJJ28
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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

EXACTLY!!

 

The "belief" that OJ Howard's target share won't increase much (despite Humphries and DJax being gone) because Arians "might want to throw the ball to Perriman, Watson, Barber, and Jones more" is not a fantasy football metric.  Logic tells you otherwise.  I made that mistake with Davante Adams.  Learn from my mistake.

 

🤔

 

The dude doth protest too much, methinks. . . 

I'm convinced you don't read posts you only hit the reply button. I have mentioned several times that the TE group target share could easily rise from 23% to 28 or 30% when you were going on about vacant targets. . . which logically would mean both brate and OJ will see increased targets. I even mentioned there is a probability OJ would get 25% target share alone like Kelce but i would bet against that 🤣

Also Arians offense distributes the ball to multiple skills players which would be more than 33 so there is no "might" in terms of the other 4 position players you named above getting targets. They will, what remains to be seen is their target share

maybe going forward I will cut and paste my previous responses to each of your repetitive replies. . .🤔

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Posted (edited)

Those hoping to still get him at a reasonable price in redrafts won't like it, but those "truthers" and owners in dynasty/keepers will nod in agreement:

 

* #Bucs TE OJ Howard avg'd 11+ yds per target in each of his first two NFL seasons

* Neither Kelce nor Ertz has ever reached 10 yds per target

* Kittle avg'd 10.1 yds per target last year with most TE yards of all time

* Gronk reached 11 yds per target once in 9-year career

 

Evan SilvaVerified account @evansilva
I don't think anyone should be surprised if after the 2019 season it becomes fairly accepted that O.J. Howard is the most talented TE in the league.
Edited by mjb03003
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6 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

1. Henry does have to split target share. He has to split with Keenan, Williams, Gordon, Ekeler, and all the other pass catchers SD rolls out.

It's strange how you keep harping on Brate's split of the target share when Evans and Godwin figure to be far more significant target hogs in the TB passing offense.

 

 

 

It's obvious you dont understand the concept of position target share in terms of schemes/personnel packages/playcalling.

Maybe start with the basics such as ask yourself why elite wr1's in the NFL consistently get 25-30% target share or elite TE's get 25-35% rz/ez target share and then there are the outliers like hopkins who get the largest share in almost every target metric.

Target distribution is fluid not stationary. Maybe  one day you will be able to grasp why Brate a guy who can start for 25 other NFL teams who you dismiss as irrelevant moreso than the other pass catchers limits OJ's production.

So  you and i can't have this conversation until you are able to grasp certain  concepts. 🤐

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

Also Arians offense distributes the ball to multiple skills players which would be more than 33 so there is no "might" in terms of the other 4 position players you named above getting targets.

"Arians offense, Arians offense, Arians offense"

 

We already shared with you that Arians offense once landed an 18% target share (98 targets) to Heath freaking Miller.  In this season the Steelers distributed 138 targets to Santonio Holmes.  136 targets to Hines Ward.  72 targets to Mike Wallace.  71 RB targets.

 

Somehow it is farfetched for OJ Howard to reach beyond that when the Bucs only have 2 decent WR's and stone hands RB's.

 

1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I have mentioned several times that the TE group target share could easily rise from 23% to 28 or 30% when you were going on about vacant targets. . . which logically would mean both brate and OJ will see increased targets. I even mentioned there is a probability OJ would get 25% target share alone like Kelce but i would bet against that 🤣

 

Makes sense.

 

1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I even mentioned there is a probability OJ would get 25% target share alone like Kelce but i would bet against that 🤣

 

He doesn't need to be anywhere near 25% to be worth a 6th round pick at the TE position.  Thanks for your post though.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

It's obvious you dont understand the concept of position target share in terms of schemes/personnel packages/playcalling.

Maybe start with the basics such as ask yourself why elite wr1's in the NFL consistently get 25-30% target share or elite TE's get 25-35% rz/ez target share and then there are the outliers like hopkins who get the largest share in almost every target metric.

Target distribution is fluid not stationary. Maybe  one day you will be able to grasp why Brate a guy who can start for 25 other NFL teams who you dismiss as irrelevant moreso than the other pass catchers limits OJ's production.

So  you and i can't have this conversation until you are able to grasp certain  concepts. 🤐

 

Target share is a result, not a cause. 

You clearly think that the scheme dictates target shares and that the players slot into those percentages. This is very poor process as it fails to account for coaches adjusting to the talent at hand.

Arians has proven himself to be one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL. He’s going to evaluate what he has to work with and adjust the system accordingly.

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26 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

He doesn't need to be anywhere near 25% to be worth a 6th round pick at the TE position.  Thanks for your post though.

You keep flip flopping. . .in one breath you are proclaiming  Howard an elite TE stud and the next you are hedging with  "worth" a 6th rd pick.

Essentially  a top 3 TE is a weekly difference maker which is why you see 3 TE's usually taken in the first 3 rounds the last couple of years and the rest fall into the 5th and lower. Those elite TE's will have an estimated 25%  pass target  share in their offenses and the equivalent in rz/ez shares

 

No one spends this much effort hyping a player  "worth" a 6th rd pick. . . 👁️

I am predicting that Henry has the situation to produce as an elite fantasy TE  because he has no other TE to compete with in terms of target share which is why I think he is a better value than OJ

So  are you predicting OJ becoming an elite TE this season or  just  in line as the 5th TE taken off the board and i will quote you

 " He doesn't need to be anywhere near 25% to be worth a 6th round pick at the TE position." 🤣

 

target shares:

Kelce  p27%, r26%, e24%

ertz p26%, r32%,  e29%

Kittle p26%, r26%, e33%

 

2018 points ranking:

1 Travis Kelce KC 294.6 16 18.4
2 Zach Ertz PHI 280.3 16 17.5
3 George Kittle SF 258.7 16 16.2
4 Eric Ebron IND 222.2 16 13.9
5 Jared Cook NO 193.6 16 12.1
6 Austin Hooper ATL 163.0 16 10.2
7 Kyle Rudolph MIN 151.4 16 9.5
8 Trey Burton CHI 147.1 16 9.2
9 David Njoku CLE 143.9 15 9.6
10 Vance McDonald PIT 133.0 15 8.9
11 Rob Gronkowski FA 131.2 13 10.1
12 Jimmy Graham GB 130.6 16 8.2

 

interestingly Ebron was very close to breaking through the top 3  because his ez% converted into double digit td's but he had Doyle blocking his path to fantasy glory. . .  his target shares were p17, r21% e35%. Now before you make some ridiculous response like OJ can perform like Ebron I will remind you the colts pass catchers lacked talent depth and were injury riddled. TY finished as a wr2. Cook also came close and he was the leading pass catcher on a terrible raiders offense but his pass share was 19%.

 So again where are predicting OJ to finish relative to his draft position, if  he finishes #5 then that is exactly what he is being drafted as TE#5, if he finishes top3 then he has significantly outperformed his ADP.

I am predicting Hunter to finish  TE#3 in fantasy as of today.👀

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Target share is a result, not a cause. 

 

 

I think you are attempting to be profound by making that statement however within the context of this thread it is the equivalent of a null set. . .😂

 

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39 minutes ago, dashoe said:

You keep flip flopping. . .in one breath you are proclaiming  Howard an elite TE stud and the next you are hedging with  "worth" a 6th rd pick.

Show me where I said that, please do it!!!

 

It was mentioned that Howard is an elite talent.  So yes, his ceiling absolutely could be up in the Kelce range (and you agreed).  His floor on the other hand is still worth a 6th round pick at the TE position which makes him a value in fantasy leagues.

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Show me where I said that, please do it!!!

 

It was mentioned that Howard is an elite talent.  So yes, his ceiling absolutely could be up in the Kelce range (and you agreed).  His floor on the other hand is still worth a 6th round pick at the TE position which makes him a value in fantasy leagues.

 

i am in no way going to scan 30 pages and read through all of your posts however i will take you 1st post. . .

 

On 4/3/2019 at 11:28 PM, RMJ_12 said:

He will be my highest owned player this year.  A top 5 TE in the 6th round?  Thanks.

 

So Howard is the #5 TE taken off the board and you say he will be a top 5. .  so exactly where is this value that you are speaking of?🤷‍♂️

 

The value is if he finishes 1-2-3  vs his ADP  #4 is debateable but  not 5-6 which is why the herd has him priced where he currently is 

So not sure exactly what you are hyping if you don't think he is a top 3 TE. 

What you are actually saying is  for the 5/6th  round and as the #5 TE off the board he is FAIR VALUE which is what the herd is saying, you agree with the consensus

Conclusion is you are hyping full price as if it's on sale and you won't make the call he will be a top 3. . . 😂

Why are you wasting our time with this non-call? 😂

# Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.
Dev
High Low Times
Drafted
Graph
1 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 14.8 3.4 1.06 2.10 184
2 3.01 Zach Ertz TE PHI 10 24.8 3.9 2.01 3.10 136
3 3.06 George Kittle TE SF 4 29.6 4.3 2.05 4.07 156
4 5.10 Eric Ebron TE IND 6 58.0 7.5 4.01 6.11 104
5 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.9 6.3 4.01 7.07 105
6 6.05 Evan Engram TE NYG 11 65.2 4.8 5.03 7.09 121
7 6.09 Hunter Henry TE LAC 12 69.0 6.2 5.02 8.09 137
8 7.02 Jared Cook TE NO 9 74.0 7.1 6.01 9.02 115
9 7.07 Vance McDonald TE PIT 7 79.1 6.6 6.02 9.01 103
10 7.08 David Njoku TE CLE 7 79.8 8.7 5.02 10.04 94
11 10.03 Austin Hooper TE ATL 9 110.8 17.3 7.03 13.10 107
12 10.10 T.J. Hockenson TE DET 5 118.3 18.4 6.03 13.04 122

 

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58 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I think you are attempting to be profound by making that statement however within the context of this thread it is the equivalent of a null set. . .😂

 

 

Not really. You clearly think that coaches draw up a scheme/system that apportions x% targets to WRs, y% targets to TEs, z% targets to RBs, then go around from team to team square peg/round holing the players available to them into each of those roles. It's the only possible explanation for why you think Henry will step into receiving the ratio of looks that Gates got and why Howard will step into receiving the ratio of looks that all the other TEs Arians had.

It's a very crude method of analysis as it completely ignores the very obvious concept coaches generally try to give the ball to their best players. You are also so fixated on %s that you have completely ignore volume, which is extremely important when projected total stats. The argument you've laid out just isn't very convincing at all. Try and be better.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

i am in no way going to scan 30 pages and read through all of your posts however i will take you 1st post. . .

 

 

So Howard is the #5 TE taken off the board and you say he will be a top 5. .  so exactly where is this value that you are speaking of?🤷‍♂️

 

The value is if he finishes 1-2-3  vs his ADP  #4 is debateable but  not 5-6 which is why the herd has him priced where he currently is 

So not sure exactly what you are hyping if you don't think he is a top 3 TE. 

What you are actually saying is  for the 5/6th  round and as the #5 TE off the board he is FAIR VALUE which is what the herd is saying, you agree with the consensus

Conclusion is you are hyping full price as if it's on sale and you won't make the call he will be a top 3. . . 😂

Why are you wasting our time with this non-call? 😂

# Pick Name Pos Team Bye Overall Std.
Dev
High Low Times
Drafted
Graph
1 2.03 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 14.8 3.4 1.06 2.10 184  
2 3.01 Zach Ertz TE PHI 10 24.8 3.9 2.01 3.10 136  
3 3.06 George Kittle TE SF 4 29.6 4.3 2.05 4.07 156  
4 5.10 Eric Ebron TE IND 6 58.0 7.5 4.01 6.11 104  
5 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.9 6.3 4.01 7.07 105  
6 6.05 Evan Engram TE NYG 11 65.2 4.8 5.03 7.09 121  
7 6.09 Hunter Henry TE LAC 12 69.0 6.2 5.02 8.09 137  
8 7.02 Jared Cook TE NO 9 74.0 7.1 6.01 9.02 115  
9 7.07 Vance McDonald TE PIT 7 79.1 6.6 6.02 9.01 103  
10 7.08 David Njoku TE CLE 7 79.8 8.7 5.02 10.04 94  
11 10.03 Austin Hooper TE ATL 9 110.8 17.3 7.03 13.10 107  
12 10.10 T.J. Hockenson TE DET 5 118.3 18.4 6.03 13.04 122

 

 

Value is relative to all players available to be selected, not just those within the same position group. Poor attempt here, be better.

Edited by MJJ28

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2 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Not really. You clearly think that coaches draw up a scheme/system that apportions x% targets to WRs, y% targets to TEs, z% targets to RBs, then go around from team to team square peg/round holing the players available to them into each of those roles. It's the only possible explanation for why you think Henry will step into receiving the ratio of looks that Gates got and why Howard will step into receiving the ratio of looks that all the other TEs Arians had.

It's a very crude method of analysis as it completely ignores the very obvious concept coaches generally try to give the ball to their best players. You are also so fixated on %s that you have completely ignore volume, which is extremely important when projected total stats. The argument you've laid out just isn't very convincing at all. Try and be better.

Coaches  create systems and find the players to execute in their systems and in some cases will modify the system for the players ability but no coach blows up his system for a player. . .  this is another basic concept you are not grasping

I actually look at the frequency of personnel groupings but I'm not going to have that discussion with you because you keep validating that you don't follow certain facts, however I will provide that data  and if you add it to  the other points I have posted  it should give you insight as to why there are certain predictive consistencies in target shares and you can go wild with it. 

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

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13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Value is relative to all players available to be selected, not just those within the same position group. Poor attempt here, be better.

you still dont get it. . ..🤣

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

you still dont get it. . ..🤣

 

Actually you don't. A TE can be selected in the 6th round as the 5th TE off the board and finish as the 5th TE for the season and be tremendous value depending upon the #'s put up relative to all the other possible selections that could have been made at the time. You completely missed this point in your post though as you clearly don't understand what you are talking about.

Edited by MJJ28

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Coaches  create systems and find the players to execute in their systems and in some cases will modify the system for the players ability but no coach blows up his system for a player. . .  this is another basic concept you are not grasping

I actually look at the frequency of personnel groupings but I'm not going to have that discussion with you because you keep validating that you don't follow certain facts, however I will provide that data  and if you add it to  the other points I have posted  it should give you insight as to why there are certain predictive consistencies in target shares and you can go wild with it. 

https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/personnel-grouping-frequency.html

 

Lol. The greatest coach of all time, Belichick, is specifically know for his incredible ability to create new systems and concepts from scratch in order to suit the individual talents of his players. Yet here you are saying "no coach blows his system up for a player." Classic.

Frequency of personnel groupings is dependent upon talent available, obviously. Most smart coaches are going to roll out personnel packages best suited to the strengths of the players available to them.

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1 minute ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Actually you don't. A TE can be selected in the 6th round as the 5th TE off the board and finish as the 5th TE for the season and be tremendous value. You completely missed this point in your post though as you clearly don't understand what you are talking about.

 

You are agreeing with the crowd dude  that he is a te5 there is no value unless you think he outperforms the pick and neither one of you are claiming he will be better than te5. you are just throwing words around like value and elite and top 5. .  the crowd already has him priced as  #5. .. 🤣

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You are agreeing with the crowd dude  that he is a te5 there is no value unless you think he outperforms the pick and neither one of you are claiming he will be better than te5. you are just throwing words around like value and elite and top 5. .  the crowd already has him priced as  #5. .. 🤣

So if he's priced as top 5 and he's top 5 then it's a good pick. You just don't want your picks to bomb. TEs 2-5 will probably be close in points anyway

 

youre also arguing target shares but the examples you used outside of Henry were the more expensive TEs.

 

so just say you'd rather take Henry over OJ

Edited by bhawks489

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