Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You are agreeing with the crowd dude  that he is a te5 there is no value unless you think he outperforms the pick and neither one of you are claiming he will be better than te5. you are just throwing words around like value and elite and top 5. .  the crowd already has him priced as  #5. .. 🤣

 

You clearly cannot comprehend what I am saying. I'll say it again:

A player can be selected 5th off the board in their position group, finish the end of the season as the 5th at their position, and still provide positive value relative to their draft position. This is because value is relative to all the possible selections that can be made at a given pick, not just those within the same position group.

Keep up.

Edited by MJJ28

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Lol. The greatest coach of all time, Belichick, is specifically know for his incredible ability to create new systems and concepts from scratch in order to suit the individual

completely false he has not created a new system, there is no Belicheck system or formation, instead he innovates and is creative using existing systems. . . i keep telling you we cant have this discussion because you dont understand the material you speak of. . .

I love how u run to Belicheck as some sort of trump card.  . . 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, dashoe said:

So Howard is the #5 TE taken off the board and you say he will be a top 5. .  so exactly where is this value that you are speaking of?🤷‍♂️

 

The value is if he finishes 1-2-3  vs his ADP  #4 is debateable but  not 5-6 

No it isn't, the value is that he is drafted 3 FULL rounds later than the #3 TE.  He holds a massive upside and a high floor AT THAT PRICE.

Edited by RMJ_12
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, dashoe said:

completely false he has not created a new system, there is no Belicheck system or formation, instead he innovates and is creative using existing systems. . . i keep telling you we cant have this discussion because you dont understand the material you speak of. . .

I love how u run to Belicheck as some sort of trump card.  . . 😂

 

Semantics. Belichick changes his system based on the talent he has available. You said that coaches don't do that when it's clear very many do. You're trying too hard and starting to look silly.

Edited by MJJ28

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

So if he's priced as top 5 and he's top 5 then it's a good pick. You just don't want your picks to bomb. TEs 2-5 will probably be close in points anyway

 

youre also arguing target shares but the examples you used outside of Henry were the more expensive TEs.

 

so just say you'd rather take Henry over OJ

1.  if he finishes #5 then that is not a value pick if the consensus is he is TE#5. . key word is value  not 'good pick that doesnt bomb'

2.  target share to show the differnce between the elite te's taken  in the first 3 rounds  vs te's taken rd 5 and later. Henry is the comp to show a value pick. You should re-read my posts to understand the methodology and the appropriate comps.  it's all about comps dude 👋

3. I did state multiple times I consider Henry as a better pick that is cheaper than OJ.

The market already established the value for OJ at te#5. . . not a hard concept to grasp and yet none of you are saying OJ will outperform the consensus view. . . just using buzzwords like  value and good pick and top 5 meaning what exactly ?

I really wish you guys  or SPECIFICALLY you, mjj8 and rmj would read before you reply. . .🤣

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Semantics. Belichick changes his system based on the talent he has available. You said that coaches don't do that when it's clear very many do. You're trying too hard and starting to look silly.

not semantics when you make patently false statements. keep plugging away and you may be 'right' at some point 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

No it isn't, the value is that he is drafted 3 FULL rounds later than the #3 TE.  He holds a massive upside and a high floor AT THAT PRICE.

So make the call,  he is valued as te5 so where do u think he finishes?

The differential between TE#3 and 5  last season  was 65pts in fantasy. 

So are you saying the herd is mis-pricing OJ and he should be priced higher?

is he really a te3 that you are buying for a te5 price?

You are not saying anything except  he has upside which you can say about any te in the top 12. . 'upside'. . .but you are not willing to state where he finishes just a generic top5  when he has already been priced by the market to te#5. 

You are saying nothing because you have committed to nothing you agree with the herd. . .🤣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, dashoe said:

1.  if he finishes #5 then that is not a value pick if the consensus is he is TE#5. . key word is value  not 'good pick that doesnt bomb'

2.  target share to show the differnce between the elite te's taken  in the first 3 rounds  vs te's taken rd 5 and later. Henry is the comp to show a value pick. You should re-read my posts to understand the methodology and the appropriate comps.  it's all about comps dude 👋

3. I did state multiple times I consider Henry as a better pick that is cheaper than OJ.

The market already established the value for OJ at te#5. . . not a hard concept to grasp and yet none of you are saying OJ will outperform the consensus view. . . just using buzzwords like  value and good pick and top 5 meaning what exactly ?

I really wish you guys  or SPECIFICALLY you, mjj8 and rmj would read before you reply. . .🤣

 

Ok fime to ignore the trolling. All shoe does is say "you have no reading comprehension". Shame, I thought you were better than that but I guess not.

 

I stopped reading after I read the reading comprehension bs again

Edited by bhawks489
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I think TE5 is too rich for OJ Howard.  Partly because it seems unlikely he will make it through a complete season (he's no Jason Witten-style iron man) and partly because of Arians traditional TE usage and partly because of the small but crucial role Brate is likely to fill on this offense.  I suspect Howard will score fewer fantasy points than several TEs selected later than Howard, such as the McDonalds, Grahams, Reeds, and Eiferts of the world.  I do hope I end up with Howard, but for a much cheaper price than he is likely to go.

Edited by SharkSwimmer
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Ok fime to ignore the trolling. All shoe does is say "you have no reading comprehension". Shame, I thought you were better than that but I guess not.

 

I stopped reading after I read the reading comprehension bs again

 

Fine by me, it means one down  who ignores facts and 2 to go. . 💪

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, dashoe said:

 

Fine by me, it means one down  who ignores facts and 2 to go. . 💪

Rofl go re-read, dunce

 

-shoe probably

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Rofl go re-read, dunce

 

-shoe probably

FLAG ON THE PLAY. . .🤣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

So if he's priced as top 5 and he's top 5 then it's a good pick. You just don't want your picks to bomb. TEs 2-5 will probably be close in points anyway

 

 

 

I missed this distinction earlier.

OJ is NOT priced as a top 5 te,  he is priced as te#5 just as Kelce is priced as TE#1 by consensus ADP. 

So is the consensus right or wrong?

is he fairly priced or over priced or cheap?

I am of the view that the market is over pricing him based on available data. He should trade after engram+henry and he should be te7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I missed this distinction earlier.

OJ is NOT priced as a top 5 te,  he is priced as te#5 just as Kelce is priced as TE#1 by consensus ADP. 

So is the consensus right or wrong?

is he fairly priced or over priced or cheap?

I am of the view that the market is over pricing him based on available data. He should trade after engram+henry and he should be te7

 

He's cheap. He has one of the best situations in the NFL and is an elite individual talent.

Being able to buy an elite talent in a premier situation in the 6th round doesn't happen too often.

Engram is on a terrible offense and is still the #3 or #4 passing option. 

Henry isn't the talent that OJ is, is coming off major knee reconstruction surgery, and is on a low volume passing offense.

Edited by MJJ28

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Fine by me, it means one down  who ignores facts and 2 to go. . 💪

 

I will still talk to you if it makes you feel any better.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He's cheap. He has one of the best situations in the NFL and is an elite individual talent.

Being able to buy an elite talent in a premier situation in the 6th round doesn't happen too often.

Engram is on a terrible offense and is still the #3 or #4 passing option. 

Henry isn't the talent that OJ is, is coming off major knee reconstruction surgery, and is on a low volume passing offense.

ADPs for engram/Henry/OJ

Engram: 55.8

OJ: 61.1

Hebry: 66

 

Draft.com as source

 

They are fairly close but id go OJ of the 3

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

ADPs for engram/Henry/OJ

Engram: 55.8

OJ: 61.1

Hebry: 66

 

Draft.com as source

 

They are fairly close but id go OJ of the 3

 

I love the wideouts around there. Godwin and Lockett in particular.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, dashoe said:

You are agreeing with the crowd dude that he is a te5 there is no value unless you think he outperforms the pick and neither one of you are claiming he will be better than te5.  you are just throwing words around like value and elite and top 5. .  the crowd already has him priced as #5. .. 🤣

WHAT?  🤣🤣🤣

 

So let's get this straight.  If ZERO TE's were selected until the 6th round and Kelce finished as the #2 TE behind Ertz even though he was selected as the #1 TE he's not a value(even in the 6th round).  He was drafted as #1 and finished #2.  No value at all.  Got it.

 

How is it possible that you don't realize that value is based on how many fantasy points you score compared to the round you were drafted in?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, dashoe said:

So make the call,  he is valued as te5 so where do u think he finishes?

I think between TE2-TE5 but that's neither here nor there lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

WHAT?  🤣🤣🤣

 

So let's get this straight.  If ZERO TE's were selected until the 6th round and Kelce finished as the #2 TE behind Ertz even though he was selected as the #1 TE he's not a value(even in the 6th round).  He was drafted as #1 and finished #2.  No value at all.  Got it.

 

How is it possible that you don't realize that value is based on how many fantasy points you score compared to the round you were drafted in?

 

Lol. He's clueless when it comes to anything more complex than posting target share %s.

It's even possible for a player to be selected late for his position, end up as the #1 at his position, and still be terrible value. Like say, if there is a 11 player run on kickers beginning at the 1.01. You pick Roberto Aguayo at 1.12 and he finishes the year as the #1 kicker. Congrats, the value of your selection was atrocious.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He's cheap. He has one of the best situations in the NFL and is an elite individual talent.

Being able to buy an elite talent in a premier situation in the 6th round doesn't happen too often.

Engram is on a terrible offense and is still the #3 or #4 passing option. 

Henry isn't the talent that OJ is, is coming off major knee reconstruction surgery, and is on a low volume passing offense.

all valid points of why you prefer one te over the other however you are not defining what is 'cheap' relative to the TE position aside from telling me potential round availability.

The round is less irrelevant to an extent because you can't control who is taken ahead of you only who is available to you; if fournette is priced as a 3rd rd rb but someone takes him in the 1st it's not that relevant to you because he is not in your pool of draft availability.

In drafts i look to exploit mispricing which usually begins after the first 36 players go off the board and that's when ADP's start falling apart

ADP is nothing more than an indication not actual draft  day value.  Saying OJ is cheap because you  think u can get him in the 6th vs the 3rd tells me you think he is a top 3 te correct?

Comps to the  same skill position is relevant to me not rounds because when you draft you are taking from a pool of what is available  for your positional needs.  if i take 3wr's  early I probably dont care if lockett is available in the same round as OJ because i have to draft and start a TE so my need for another wr is less pressing. Instead i am looking at available TE's and selecting from that TE pool if I want OJ I cant assume he will be available to select based off his predraft ADP. 

 

So again  the market prices him as TE5 , is that the right price or do you think he is a te1-2-3-4 ?

for example i think henry is mispriced because I think he will finish as a te3  and the value proposition is I am acquiring him at the market price of a te7 if his ADP puts him in the 6th rd but if I want him as a key piece to my roster construction, I'm probably not waiting for the 6th rd and will take him  earlier.

 

Get it? 🤓

 

So tell us what your value of OJ is relative to where the market has him as te5?  Is he still  a value if the market prices him as a te4 or te3?

 

Also this is all based on snake draft formats which I rarely participate in after having found the beauty of auction drafting. ADP is useless in auctions because you have a chance at every available player 🤪

 

 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

IF OJ stays healthy for 16 games I can see him finishing as top 3 TE.

His run after the catch ability is on par with Kelce and better than Ertz in my opinion. 

IF I took OJ round 5 I'd be hoping to get top 3 TE production.

I think Hunter Henry will be a very good TE this season but he doesn't seem to get as much work between the 20's as OJ does. Henry catches TDs so his fantasy points should be relatively consistent but what I look for is TEs who get utilized a lot between the 20s in addition to their red zone work. That's why I like OJ over Henry in fantasy. I like that OJ can get 3 catches for about 60 yards between the 20s really fast that's 9 fantasy points and then his standard red zone looks. That's how I view Kelce, he does great work between the 20s so that when he does find the end zone he is catapulting his fantasy numbers into double digits just about every week.

I don't expect Henry to come out 1st season back from reconstructive knee surgery and be relied on so heavily when they have plenty of guys to do the heavy lifting. 

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

WHAT?  🤣🤣🤣

 

So let's get this straight.  If ZERO TE's were selected until the 6th round and Kelce finished as the #2 TE behind Ertz even though he was selected as the #1 TE he's not a value(even in the 6th round).  He was drafted as #1 and finished #2.  No value at all.  Got it.

 

How is it possible that you don't realize that value is based on how many fantasy points you score compared to the round you were drafted in?

 

if kelce  and all tes are  available in the 6th rd what does that tell you about how the market is valuing te's and the change in fantasy scoring? 🤣

silly hypothetical on your part. . .did u actually think that one through?🤫

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are working toward the 2019 NFL season under a new coaching staff. Tight end O.J. Howard likes what he’s seen of coach Bruce Arians’ offense, and Arians’ coaching staff likes what it has in the former Alabama standout.

Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said Arians is “trying to see how many different ways I can use him” as Tampa Bay takes its new offense on the field during OTAs.

https://www.al.com/sports/2019/05/oj-howard-not-a-lot-of-those-human-beings-walking-around-on-earth.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I think between TE2-TE5 but that's neither here nor there lol

 

Are you serious?  🤣oh boy BETWEEN 2 and 5! instead of 1 and 5!!!!  Whoah Nelly!!!

 

U are really taking a stand here on your value proposition.

the 2018 season point differential between te2 and te5 was about 87 points which is about 1 TD per game

YOU CLEARLY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE DOING IN FANTASY IF YOU THINK A TD A GAME IS NEGLIGIBLE

 

You have no conviction on OJ, you are just hyping for the sake of hyping and seriously wasting our time in this thread.  🤪

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...