Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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4 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are working toward the 2019 NFL season under a new coaching staff. Tight end O.J. Howard likes what he’s seen of coach Bruce Arians’ offense, and Arians’ coaching staff likes what it has in the former Alabama standout.

Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich said Arians is “trying to see how many different ways I can use him” as Tampa Bay takes its new offense on the field during OTAs.

https://www.al.com/sports/2019/05/oj-howard-not-a-lot-of-those-human-beings-walking-around-on-earth.html

 

Can't wait for this season to get started. 

Arians is a smart football coach. You do t look at OJ Howard and say "well he is a TE and they are mostly blockers" offensive minds like Arians know they can split OJ into the slot, use him at traditional receiving positions that most TEs would not be comfortable with. I think that's what makes OJ a threat to put his name up there with Kittle and Kelce cause I believe Arians will be creative in ways to get the ball to him. Brate can even steal an occasional TD when OJ is capable of galloping 75 yards for a TDat any given moment.

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Let's consider this for a moment.

Mike Evans is 6 foot 5 and 231 pounds and ran a 4.50 40 yard dash

OJ Howard is 6'6 250 pounds and ran a 4.51 40 yard dash.

 

OJ is taller than Mike Evans, weighs 20 pounds more and more or less ran the same speed 40 as Mike Evans and oh yeah, is eligible at TE.

 

If that doesnt make you drool I don't know what would.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Are you serious?  🤣oh boy BETWEEN 2 and 5! instead of 1 and 5!!!!  Whoah Nelly!!!

 

U are really taking a stand here on your value proposition.

the 2018 season point differential between te2 and te5 was about 87 points which is about 1 TD per game

YOU CLEARLY HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE DOING IN FANTASY IF YOU THINK A TD A GAME IS NEGLIGIBLE

 

You have no conviction on OJ, you are just hyping for the sake of hyping and seriously wasting our time in this thread.  🤪

 

I’m not sure why you think this upcoming season will play out exactly as last season.

It’s  plenty possible for there to not be an extreme tier break after the #3 TE this season, and is probably more likely than not given how difficult it will be for last year’s top 3 to repeat their record breaking performances and the expected rise of the young, talented TEs in the league.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, dashoe said:

all valid points of why you prefer one te over the other however you are not defining what is 'cheap' relative to the TE position aside from telling me potential round availability.

The round is less irrelevant to an extent because you can't control who is taken ahead of you only who is available to you; if fournette is priced as a 3rd rd rb but someone takes him in the 1st it's not that relevant to you because he is not in your pool of draft availability.

In drafts i look to exploit mispricing which usually begins after the first 36 players go off the board and that's when ADP's start falling apart

ADP is nothing more than an indication not actual draft  day value.  Saying OJ is cheap because you  think u can get him in the 6th vs the 3rd tells me you think he is a top 3 te correct?

Comps to the  same skill position is relevant to me not rounds because when you draft you are taking from a pool of what is available  for your positional needs.  if i take 3wr's  early I probably dont care if lockett is available in the same round as OJ because i have to draft and start a TE so my need for another wr is less pressing. Instead i am looking at available TE's and selecting from that TE pool if I want OJ I cant assume he will be available to select based off his predraft ADP. 

 

So again  the market prices him as TE5 , is that the right price or do you think he is a te1-2-3-4 ?

for example i think henry is mispriced because I think he will finish as a te3  and the value proposition is I am acquiring him at the market price of a te7 if his ADP puts him in the 6th rd but if I want him as a key piece to my roster construction, I'm probably not waiting for the 6th rd and will take him  earlier.

 

Get it? 🤓

 

So tell us what your value of OJ is relative to where the market has him as te5?  Is he still  a value if the market prices him as a te4 or te3?

 

Also this is all based on snake draft formats which I rarely participate in after having found the beauty of auction drafting. ADP is useless in auctions because you have a chance at every available player 🤪

 

 

 

OJ is my 4th ranked TE. He has the most talent and best situation of the non-big 3 TEs.

 

Edited by MJJ28

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16 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I’m not sure why you think this upcoming season will play out exactly as last season.

It’s  plenty possible for there to not be an extreme tier break after the #3 TE this season, and is probably more likely than not given how difficult it will be for last year’s top 3 to repeat their record breaking performances and the expected rise of the young, talented TEs in the league.

Exactly, I think Ertz and Ebron will score LESS than last year.  I think Howard, Engram, and Henry will score MORE than last year.  Such a difficult concept to understand.  

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15 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Exactly, I think Ertz and Ebron will score LESS than last year.  I think Howard, Engram, and Henry will score MORE than last year.  Such a difficult concept to understand.  

It's almost a guarantee ertz scores less.

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31 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I’m not sure why you think this upcoming season will play out exactly as last season.

It’s  plenty possible for there to not be an extreme tier break after the #3 TE this season, and is probably more likely than not given how difficult it will be for last year’s top 3 to repeat their record breaking performances and the expected rise of the young, talented TEs in the league.

I dont think it will play out the same which is the  rationale I apply  when you state about how prolific the bucs passing offense was last season, same rationale when someone keeps stating  that if you EXTRAPOLATE stats over missing games however the trend the last 3 years has been the differntial between te2 and te5 has increased each year. 

NFL offenses are fluid not stationary  the good ones are consistent year to year with predictable production and the bad ones are volatile and unpredictable.  i'm not sure the bucs rpt their passing offense and I expect a major increase in the  production of the rb's as their share of the passing offense increases.

 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I dont think it will play out the same which is the  rationale I apply  when you state about how prolific the bucs passing offense was last season, same rationale when someone keeps stating  that if you EXTRAPOLATE stats over missing games however the trend the last 3 years has been the differntial between te2 and te5 has increased each year. 

NFL offenses are fluid not stationary  the good ones are consistent year to year with predictable production and the bad ones are volatile and unpredictable.  i'm not sure the bucs rpt their passing offense and I expect a major increase in the  production of the rb's as their share of the passing offense increases.

 

 

I actually think the Bucs offense will put up less numbers than last year. Production will be consolidated though so the key players won’t see a major hit in production.

Why do you expect a major increase in RB passing production? Arians never heavily involved a RB in the passing game until he had David Johnson. He’s not going to mindlessly target Barber and Jones when they have minimal pass catching talent. Seems like you are really underestimating Arians’ ability to use his brain when he has proven himself over and over again to be a great coach.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I actually think the Bucs offense will put up less numbers than last year. Production will be consolidated though so the key players won’t see a major hit in production.

Why do you expect a major increase in RB passing production? Arians never heavily involved a RB in the passing game until he had David Johnson. He’s not going to mindlessly target Barber and Jones when they have minimal pass catching talent. Seems like you are really underestimating Arians’ ability to use his brain when he has proven himself over and over again to be a great coach.

 

beat writer reports from OTA's say Barber has been logging significant passing work. . .

Also i don't attempt to divine the mind and intent of the HC I look at what he has done in the past and use new information from interviews, personnel moves and practice reports to formulate my views. 

Such as today the bucs added a new TE to the roster which i think is a total of 6, could be as a training camp body or it could be an indication they plan on using a lot of 12 and 13 sets. 

 

Edited by dashoe

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

beat writer reports from OTA's say Barber has been logging significant passing work. . .

Also i don't attempt to divine the mind and intent of the HC I look at what he has done in the past and use new information from interviews, personnel moves and practice reports to formulate my views. 

Such as today the bucs added a new TE to the roster which i think is a total of 6, could be as a training camp body or it could be an indication they plan on using a lot of 12 and 13 sets. 

 

 

So you listen to beat reporters when it comes to what they say about Barber, but not when they talk about Howard.

You also care about Arians’ scheme when it comes to TEs, but not RBs.

Lol.

Edited by MJJ28
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If this pissing match continues I might have to trade OJ away in my dynasty league just so I don’t have to deal with this thread anymore.

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4 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

So you listen to beat reporters when it comes to what they say about Barber, but not when they talk about Howard. Ok lol.

1. how do you ascertain i don't follow what beat reporters say about Howard

2. what was said about OJ by beat reporters in OTA's that has fundamentally changed his outlook?

3. reports that barber is logging catches is a change on his outlook

4. Again you fail to have an informational discussion without attempting to be "right" about some fabricated point you make; which is essentially NO POINT.

 

Keep shooting and maybe you will hit your mark, I give you guys credit in being relentless with your failures in this thread. . 👏

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2 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

If this pissing match continues I might have to trade OJ away in my dynasty league just so I don’t have to deal with this thread anymore.

I was going to propose to rename shoe to OJHowardCleats.

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6 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

If this pissing match continues I might have to trade OJ away in my dynasty league just so I don’t have to deal with this thread anymore.

OJ Howard appears to be one of the most polarizing players in fantasy football for 2019.  And it is hardly surprising.  Dude is a mouth-watering physical talent with the speed to outrun safeties and take it to the house from 75 yards out.  But he has yet to put together a dominant fantasy season, has yet to finish a season without getting hurt, is entering a new system historically unfriendly to TEs, and has competition for critical TE targets from Brate, let alone his other teammates at WR, RB, etc.

I think we are probably going to back and forth on this guy right up until draft day.  He seems unlikely to end up on my team due to the price tag, but if he gets off to a slow start, I might try to trade for him.

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I was going to propose to rename shoe to OJHowardCleats.

 

You don't want the truth because deep down in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall -- you need me on that wall. . .🤣

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I expect a major increase in the  production of the rb's as their share of the passing offense increases.

 

I expect a major increase in the  production of the OJ Howard as his share of the passing offense increases.

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31 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I was going to propose to rename shoe to OJHowardCleats.

Or Axe Shoe

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Or Axe Shoe

 

i'll just call  you . .  'TOP 5 . .  Actually Make That TOP 2 TO 5' . . .🤣

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

i'll just call  you . .  'TOP 5 . .  Actually Make That TOP 2 TO 5' . . .🤣

It isn't really relevant where he finishes.  The point is that I think the #5 TE in 2019 will have quite a few more points than the #5 TE had in 2018.  As for the #4 TE.

 

You seem to forget Howard missed 7 games, Engram missed 5 games, Henry missed 16 games.  Of course the gap between #2 and #5 last year was large.  3 of the top 7 TE's in 2019 ADP didn't play a full season in 2018.  Tough concept to grasp I know.

 

You're getting there, I call tell when you realize you're wrong because you quickly change the subject or focus on one small part of a post that wasn't really relevant to it in the first place.

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7 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

It isn't really relevant where he finishes.  The point is that I think the #5 TE in 2019 will have quite a few more points than the #5 TE had in 2018.  As for the #4 TE.

 

You seem to forget Howard missed 7 games, Engram missed 5 games, Henry missed 16 games.  Of course the gap between #2 and #5 last year was large.  3 of the top 7 TE's in 2019 ADP didn't play a full season in 2018.  Tough concept to grasp I know.

 

You're getting there, I call tell when you realize you're wrong because you quickly change the subject or focus on one small part of a post that wasn't really relevant to it in the first place.

I don't know or care who the actual top 7 TEs will be in 2019, or who will be the top 7 in adp.  Nor do I care what the spread is from the TE2 to the TE7.

I am looking for a guy who is going to burst on the scene with a big year, and preferably score double digit touchdowns.  And who I don't have to pay an arm and a leg for.  OJ Howard seems like the opposite of that.  At a fifth round price tag, he's quite expensive to acquire.  And he's played in parts of two seasons and never come close to double digit touchdowns, and now he is playing for a coach who has traditionally preferred downfield passes to WRs and used TEs to block.  So I am going to look elsewhere.  But I will be following this thread all season.  Maybe to eat crow, but more likely to gloat.

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48 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am looking for a guy who is going to burst on the scene with a big year, and preferably score double digit touchdowns.  And who I don't have to pay an arm and a leg for.

Good luck with that 😂

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

he's played in parts of two seasons and never come close to double digit touchdowns

Such a terrible post

 

He's played 23 games and scored 11 TD's.  That's a very high TD percentage.  Higher than the career of Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Engram, just about any TE not named Gronk.

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49 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Such a terrible post

 

He's played 23 games and scored 11 TD's. 

Great point. I admit I missed the announcement that the 2019 season will have 23 games though.

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I think perhaps more important than his # of targets or target share will be his aDOT. For all the talk about Arians' system being not that TE friendly historically, we seem to be ignoring that Howard is basically an oversized WR, as @DerrickHenrysCleats pointed out in his post at the top of page 31 (seriously?! How are we on page 31 already?!). 

Arians' system is known as a vertical passing game, lots of shots taken deep downfield. Howard has thrived on deep seam routes, and Winston has never been shy about making those throws. Last year O.J. Howard was 9th among all passcatchers with a 16.6 yards per reception mark (Y/R). For reference T.Y. Hilton had a 16.7 Y/R, and Will Fuller was at 15.7. George Kittle was at 15.6... And guess what... O.J. Howard averaged 16.6 Y/R in his rookie year as well. 

Here's another stat/metric to chew on. Yards per Target (Y/Tgt). O.J. Howard was 2nd among all passcatchers in 2018 with a 11.8 mark. Only Tyler Lockett at 13.8 had a higher average. As a rookie, Howard averaged 11.1 Y/Tgt, which would have been 4th best among all passcatchers if he had enough receptions to qualify.

So targeting Howard has historically lead to big chunks of yardage. Physically he is basically a slightly larger version of Mike Evans. Do we really think Arians is going to bring his vertical passing scheme to Tampa Bay and have O.J. Howard running slants 3 yards beyond the line of scrimmage? A larger target share would be amazing for O.J. Howard. But if it just stays the same and he stays healthy, I could see him posting a 1,000 yard season on ~60 receptions.  

 

I don't envy those of you who play in redraft/snake leagues only, where you always have to fight the ADP hype train so you can retain some value. Letting someone else draft/own a player who i'm fairly confident will break out simply because there isn't a ton of surplus value in drafting them at ADP would frustrate me. It would take a lot of the fun out of fantasy football for me if I wasn't able to simply plant my flag on players and watch the profits roll in. 

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Good luck with that 😂

I have had good luck with that, as stated upthread.  Part of my process is avoiding overhyped players like OJ Howard.

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