Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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34 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

 

I don't envy those of you who play in redraft/snake leagues only, where you always have to fight the ADP hype train so you can retain some value. Letting someone else draft/own a player who i'm fairly confident will break out simply because there isn't a ton of surplus value in drafting them at ADP would frustrate me. It would take a lot of the fun out of fantasy football for me if I wasn't able to simply plant my flag on players and watch the profits roll in. 

This why I do auctions and avoid snake drafts. You pay for who you want rather than a random drawing of what's available and making the best of it.

I got tired of watching guys who didnt do a lick of research end up with stud players simply based on their draft order and then act as if they were briliant talent pickers when they had winning records. One season an auto draft team won in one of my leagues it was the perfect storm of picks+no injuries and I said I was finished with snake drafts and went directly to auctions

Auctions weed out the pretenders in redraft and reduces 'lucky picks" you are 100% accountable for the roster you build

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On 4/7/2019 at 11:37 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

2018 Kittle

2017 Ertz

2016 Rudolph

2015 Reed

2014 Kelce

2013 Orange Julius

 

3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am looking for a guy who is going to burst on the scene with a big year, and preferably score double digit touchdowns.  And who I don't have to pay an arm and a leg for.

 

22 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I have had good luck with that, as stated upthread. 

 

So 2 of your past 6 "found" TE's had double digit TD's.  I don't you realize that maybe 1-2 TE's per year score double digit TD's.

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Great point. I admit I missed the announcement that the 2019 season will have 23 games though.

If you're looking for double-digit TD's you may need Gronk and a time machine.

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Posted (edited)

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15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

This why I do auctions and avoid snake drafts. You pay for who you want rather than a random drawing of what's available and making the best of it.

I got tired of watching guys who didnt do a lick of research end up with stud players simply based on their draft order and then act as if they were briliant talent pickers when they had winning records. One season an auto draft team won in one of my leagues it was the perfect storm of picks+no injuries and I said I was finished with snake drafts and went directly to auctions

Auctions weed out the pretenders in redraft and reduces 'lucky picks" you are 100% accountable for the roster you build

 

We are 100% on the same page. I understand all of the ADP talk on these boards, because standard snake redraft leagues are still king, but it kills me that people have to build their teams within such tight constraints. I stopped doing snake drafts when I realized I could look at any roster and know within a few moments what draft slot they picked from based on who their top 2-3 players were. And by mid- or late-August those player combos become so uniform across leagues that the draft software might as well skip to the 4th/5th round where things can actually start to get interesting...

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44 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

I think perhaps more important than his # of targets or target share will be his aDOT. For all the talk about Arians' system being not that TE friendly historically, we seem to be ignoring that Howard is basically an oversized WR, as @DerrickHenrysCleats pointed out in his post at the top of page 31 (seriously?! How are we on page 31 already?!). 

Arians' system is known as a vertical passing game, lots of shots taken deep downfield. Howard has thrived on deep seam routes, and Winston has never been shy about making those throws. Last year O.J. Howard was 9th among all passcatchers with a 16.6 yards per reception mark (Y/R). For reference T.Y. Hilton had a 16.7 Y/R, and Will Fuller was at 15.7. George Kittle was at 15.6... And guess what... O.J. Howard averaged 16.6 Y/R in his rookie year as well. 

 

which is the point I made about  him being used in the kelce mold but kelce gets a significant amount of target share in his offense as the primary pass catcher and he doesnt have an above avereage pass catching TE on the roster with him

Evans is the primary pass catcher on the bucs and Brate can block/catch and limits  rz/ez opportunity

My issue with OJ is volume so in terms of Adot you need to consider volume opportunity

heres a useful site for that

http://airyards.com

 

Also in terms of the vertical game Arians  uses he has legitimate options in Evans+Oj+perriman+godwin+ the rookie scott miller who comps to Jon Brown

 

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33 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

 

Note that I have no stake in this pissing match; all I'm interested in is seeing which arguments make some sense. 

👋

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I've been a proponent of finding TEs late in drafts year after year because I had a lot of success for several years and won titles doing so. 

 

Well, after 2 years of failure in a row (injury + bust), I think I'm going to go grab a proven stud this year and sacrifice my WR2/3.  

 

OJH is a guy I'd normally be looking at as a breakout player, but like others have said, there's just too much already there to compete against to really feel confident with him as your 16 (15) week starter IMO. Without a Cameron Brate pre-season injury, it's going to be tough for me to change my opinion either. 

 

BTW about snake vs Auction... 

 

Lot of us do both. Both are great in their own regards. And surprise... Both have unique strategies which makes them both different and fun. Snake arguments will ALWAYS be why you should take a guy where you take him at whereas Auction arguments SHOULD always be why you like a players season long value or not IMO. 

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

OJH is a guy I'd normally be looking at as a breakout player, but like others have said, there's just too much already there to compete against to really feel confident with him as your 16 (15) week starter IMO. 

Huh?  ...but there isn't.  There's less than last season, much much less actually.

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3 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I've been a proponent of finding TEs late in drafts year after year because I had a lot of success for several years and won titles doing so. 

 

Well, after 2 years of failure in a row (injury + bust), I think I'm going to go grab a proven stud this year and sacrifice my WR2/3.  

 

 

 

I always looked at gronk+kelce as  discounted wr1's  with a higher percentage of rz/ez target share and it worked out well for me because I had better luck finding  cheaper wr's  who could put up wr2 numbers. 

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Interesting stat..

 

OJ Howard leads the league in yards per target at the TE position 2 years in a row, including his rookie season

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45 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Interesting stat..

 

OJ Howard leads the league in yards per target at the TE position 2 years in a row, including his rookie season

I don't think anybody denies the talent of OJ. That's not the question.

The question is: is Tampa going to be a perfect storm for him where he gets tons of targets and makes everybody happy, or will he in fact be hindered by the situation, including his coach? I don't think anybody knows right now, given that people have been bickering for the past 15 pages.

I like scenario-based forecasting, where you consider both of the above scenarios, give them a value and a probability, and estimate your player (or your supply chain or whatever) based on that. This guy is Schroedinger's TE: he is both a stud and a dud until we open the box.

Camp and pre-season should be very interesting. More interesting anyway than trench warfare in May.

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20 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I don't think anybody denies the talent of OJ. That's not the question.

The question is: is Tampa going to be a perfect storm for him where he gets tons of targets and makes everybody happy, or will he in fact be hindered by the situation, including his coach? I don't think anybody knows right now, given that people have been bickering for the past 15 pages.

I like scenario-based forecasting, where you consider both of the above scenarios, give them a value and a probability, and estimate your player (or your supply chain or whatever) based on that. This guy is Schroedinger's TE: he is both a stud and a dud until we open the box.

Camp and pre-season should be very interesting. More interesting anyway than trench warfare in May.

Yeah I think doubters have a curious case of overthinking this scenario.  Arians didn't use TE's a ton in general but there WERE instances where he did and if there was ever a time to do it again OJ Howard in his 3rd season seems pretty logical.

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8 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yeah I think doubters have a curious case of overthinking this scenario.  Arians didn't use TE's a ton in general but there WERE instances where he did and if there was ever a time to do it again OJ Howard in his 3rd season seems pretty logical.

I like how you start your sentence with "yeah" as if you agree, and then go on to miss my point :)

I think both doubters and truthers have good points. Both scenarios are valid. Right now, there is no way to tell, until we open the box. 

(Of course that's true for all fantasy to some extent, but here the difference between positive and negative scenarios is bigger then normal, which is why this thread is so long and heated.)

 

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Huh?  ...but there isn't.  There's less than last season, much much less actually.

 

There's definitely more opportunities no doubt. But it's not like he was good last year and just needs to repeat. He wasn't. He had 30 receptions. 

 

He has upside and skill right now IMO. But for that to come together into a viable fantasy season he's also going to need a path AKA opportunity. 

 

Humphries leaving I believe will open up more work for OJH, Brate, RB's, and Godwin while Evans role primarily remains the same. 

 

I just have a real tough time ever getting behind a TE on a team with 2 TEs. When's the last time it worked? Was it gronk and murderer? Even last year Ebron was pretty quiet on the games Doyle was healthy and on the field IIRC. 

 

I like OJH for sure and like I said if I was gambling on a break out guy he's gonna be high on my list, but what are you projecting for him? 

 

I want at least 50-60 / 800+ / 8+. 

 

I believe that's possible, but I don't think that's a lock by any means. 

 

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

I think both doubters and truthers have good points. Both scenarios are valid.

I understand your point and I disagree with it.

 

The idea that there is a "limited amount of TE targets" is a fallacy.  As if Howard and Brate are somehow joined at the hip even if they're on the field at the same time.

 

Explain to me how Heath Miller can get 98 targets in a Bruce Arian's offense that included Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Wallace but we're to expect less than that from OJ freaking Howard (yes that is his middle name I Googled it)?

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10 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

There's definitely more opportunities no doubt. But it's not like he was good last year and just needs to repeat. He wasn't. He had 30 receptions. 

This whole idea of using season total stats of a player that played 9 games is probably the most difficult thing to understand in these forums.  You guys go ahead and act like his numbers wouldn't have been much different if he played 7 more games, I'll continue to use logic.

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

Explain to me how Heath Miller can get 98 targets in a Bruce Arian's offense that included Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, and Mike Wallace but we're to expect less than that from OJ freaking Howard (yes that is his middle name I Googled it)?

 

BAs vertical game was a lot less vertical in 2009.

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4 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

BAs vertical game was a lot less vertical in 2009.

As explained, OJ is the most "vertical" TE in the game.

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18 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

I like OJH for sure and like I said if I was gambling on a break out guy he's gonna be high on my list, but what are you projecting for him? 

 

I want at least 50-60 / 800+ / 8+. 

 

I believe that's possible, but I don't think that's a lock by any means. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

... I'll continue to use logic.

 

Just answer this one then. I wanna see where you're at and how confident you are that it's achieved. 

 

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

The idea that there is a "limited amount of TE targets" is a fallacy.

 

4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You guys go ahead and act like his numbers wouldn't have been much different if he played 7 more games

Strawman much?

Anyway, I'm back to lurking in this thread. At least there's something to read here, so please continue.

1.gif

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

BAs vertical game was a lot less vertical in 2009.

 

OJ is the prospect he is primarily because of his vertical ability.

That is his best attribute.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

As explained, OJ is the most "vertical" TE in the game.

 

Your quickly responding to everything like you're being attacked, but I don't feel like you're really reading or thinking about what's being said. 

 

1. I've stated that I believe in OJH, but my question has been how much

 

2. You asked how could Heath get 98 targets and I said because Arian's vertical passing attack wasn't the vertical passing attack we know it as today back in 2009 where heath Miller was a possession receiving TE. AKA Heath Miller 2009 and OJH 2019 don't really compare much IMO. 

 

 

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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35 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

what are you projecting for him? 

 

I want at least 50-60 / 800+ / 8+

70/1100/10

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14 hours ago, dashoe said:

This why I do auctions and avoid snake drafts. You pay for who you want rather than a random drawing of what's available and making the best of it.

I got tired of watching guys who didnt do a lick of research end up with stud players simply based on their draft order and then act as if they were briliant talent pickers when they had winning records. One season an auto draft team won in one of my leagues it was the perfect storm of picks+no injuries and I said I was finished with snake drafts and went directly to auctions

Auctions weed out the pretenders in redraft and reduces 'lucky picks" you are 100% accountable for the roster you build

 

Curious, how many folks participate in your auction league and how long does it take to complete on average?

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