Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Nice.

I'll go 70/1050 and 8TDs

 

Well worth a 5th round price tag to me.

 

That's his ceiling.  Most wise drafters don't pay that ADP for a ceiling.  They pay what you paid to draft Kittle last year (hint: it was far cheaper than a 5th rd ADP). 

 

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8 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I like how you start your sentence with "yeah" as if you agree, and then go on to miss my point :)

I think both doubters and truthers have good points. Both scenarios are valid. Right now, there is no way to tell, until we open the box. 

(Of course that's true for all fantasy to some extent, but here the difference between positive and negative scenarios is bigger then normal, which is why this thread is so long and heated.)

 

 

 

This is the reason why the thread is long. . . 🤣

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7 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Curious, how many folks participate in your auction league and how long does it take to complete on average?

 I play in 2 leagues.  each 12 teams  2-3hrs depending on breaks and glitches. 

The key to speed up bidding with a real bid with the top 36 players so someone has to be willing to shortcut the bidding process i.e. if CMC is a $70 player you're not going to steal him, no need to waste time clicking multiple $1 bids, just bid $55 and eliminate those not interested.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

That's his ceiling.  Most wise drafters don't pay that ADP for a ceiling.  They pay what you paid to draft Kittle last year (hint: it was far cheaper than a 5th rd ADP). 

 

 

That is your opinion. I think you draft a player based on what each person thinks that player will do. If I think OJ can hit 1,050 and 8 TDs then I will draft him accordingly and a 5th round pick is just fine. That's as good as WR2 numbers from the TE spot. 

Anybody can take a chance on TEs later that might vastly outproduce their ADPs like Vance McDonald or Jimmy Graham but there is risk involved in that strategy as well. It's up to each person to decide which chance they want to take. 

 

It's your opinion that's OJs ceiling. I think his ceiling is a couple hundred more yards and a handful more TDs. If healthy all season he almost seems like a lock for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs.

OJ is as big and as fast as Mike Evans. Arians found creative ways to use his most athletic player in Arizona. He turned Larry Fitzgerald into a HOFer. I believe OJ will be used all over the formation. Lined up in the slot, out wide, traditional TE. I think it's a breakout year for OJ and it's ok to pay for that if that is in fact what happens. Fantasy is a calculated Gamble and all the peripherals for OJ point towards a breakout. 5th round price tag is not overpaying if he returns borderline WR1 numbers, it's actually a steal.

Edited by DerrickHenrysCleats
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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

That's his ceiling.  Most wise drafters don't pay that ADP for a ceiling.

He was on pace for 60/1010/8 last year with much more competition for targets, in his 2nd season.

 

No you aren't paying for 70/1100/10 in the 6th round

 

1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

They pay what you paid to draft Kittle last year (hint: it was far cheaper than a 5th rd ADP). 

Good luck getting 88/1377/5 in the 12th round again

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20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He was on pace for 60/1010/8 last year with much more competition for targets, in his 2nd season.

 

No you aren't paying for 70/1100/10 in the 6th round

 

Good luck getting 88/1377/5 in the 12th round again

 

Well, that actually requires research and independent thinking to find gems like that.  Not surprising why only the best players are able to find them.  Remember that Gronk was a 9th-10th round pick the year he scored 18 TDs. . 

 

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4 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Well, that actually requires research and independent thinking to find gems like that.  Not surprising why only the best players are able to find them.  Remember that Gronk was a 9th-10th round pick the year he scored 18 TDs. . 

Yes it's POSSIBLE, but if a player actually does break out only ONE team in a league can own him.  I realize that you and @SharkSwimmer are fantasy TE Gods, but the rest of us need a TE too.

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes it's POSSIBLE, but if a player actually does break out only ONE team in a league can own him.  I realize that you and @SharkSwimmer are fantasy TE Gods, but the rest of us need a TE too.

 

I'm no god.  I'm still looking.  But it can be done.  What is pretty much guaranteed is that drafting a TE high based on upside is going to be a losing proposition.  Howard in the 7th-8th round is reasonable.  Earlier than that is certainly not.  As you mentioned, Kittle was available in the 12th round last year. 

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This thread is funny. "Don't pay a 6th for OJ, just find the next gronk in the 15th round."

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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

This thread is funny. "Don't pay a 6th for OJ, just find the next gronk in the 15th round."

 

What's funny is OJ truthers(the same 2-3 guys) being dismissive, personalizing comments, ignoring valid points  and ridiculing  other views that don't align with theirs. . .😂

Why so much hostility? He's a fantasy pick not a best friend in real life 👀

A 5th rd consensus pick is not worth the angst 🤣

1 2.04 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 16.3 3.0 1.06 3.01 256
2 3.04 Zach Ertz TE PHI 10 27.5 4.1 2.01 4.01 179
3 3.07 George Kittle TE SF 4 31.2 3.9 2.06 4.07 196
4 5.08 Eric Ebron TE IND 6 56.2 8.2 4.01 9.12 128
5 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.5 5.6 3.12 6.11 135
6 6.04 Evan Engram TE NYG 11 64.3 5.8 4.05 7.06 174
7 6.08 Hunter Henry TE LAC 12 67.6 5.6 5.01 8.02 202
8 6.11 Jared Cook TE NO 9 70.9 6.9 4.09 8.09 159
9 7.08 Vance McDonald TE PIT 7 80.2 7.4 6.01 9.11 171
10 7.11 David Njoku TE CLE 7 82.8 9.2 5.12 10.09 114
11 10.05 Trey Burton TE CHI 6 112.6 15.2 7.02 12.09 150
12 11.01 Delanie Walker TE TEN 11 120.6 15.3 7.07 13.06 211

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

What's funny is OJ truthers(the same 2-3 guys) being dismissive, personalizing comments, ignoring valid points  and ridiculing  other views that don't align with theirs. . .😂

Why so much hostility? He's a fantasy pick not a best friend in real life 👀

A 5th rd consensus pick is not worth the angst 🤣

1 2.04 Travis Kelce TE KC 12 16.3 3.0 1.06 3.01 256  
2 3.04 Zach Ertz TE PHI 10 27.5 4.1 2.01 4.01 179  
3 3.07 George Kittle TE SF 4 31.2 3.9 2.06 4.07 196  
4 5.08 Eric Ebron TE IND 6 56.2 8.2 4.01 9.12 128  
5 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.5 5.6 3.12 6.11 135  
6 6.04 Evan Engram TE NYG 11 64.3 5.8 4.05 7.06 174  
7 6.08 Hunter Henry TE LAC 12 67.6 5.6 5.01 8.02 202  
8 6.11 Jared Cook TE NO 9 70.9 6.9 4.09 8.09 159  
9 7.08 Vance McDonald TE PIT 7 80.2 7.4 6.01 9.11 171  
10 7.11 David Njoku TE CLE 7 82.8 9.2 5.12 10.09 114  
11 10.05 Trey Burton TE CHI 6 112.6 15.2 7.02 12.09 150  
12 11.01 Delanie Walker TE TEN 11 120.6 15.3 7.07 13.06 211

Go reread what i said. Apparently you have a problem with reading comprehension.

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33 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

This thread is funny. "Don't pay a 6th for OJ, just find the next gronk in the 15th round."

 

Mike Gesiki for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in round 12 anyone?

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48 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

What is pretty much guaranteed is that drafting a TE high based on upside is going to be a losing proposition.

Again I don't see how drafting Howard in the late 5th or early 6th requires him to have 70/1100/10.  Have you paid attention to the production of guys at that ADP over the years?

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Mike Gesiki for 1,000 yards and 12 TDs in round 12 anyone?

As a decent floor maybe

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

This thread is funny. "Don't pay a 6th for OJ, just find the next gronk in the 15th round."

 

Just draft Gronk himself in the 15th round. He'll be back.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Go reread what i said. Apparently you have a problem with reading comprehension.

I completely comprehended what you wrote. Maybe you missed what I wrote. . was it irony, sarcasm or satire? 🤪

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Just draft Gronk himself in the 15th round. He'll be back.

it would be a great storyline if he returned week 12 and became a league winner. . 👏

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3 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

This thread is funny. "Don't pay a 6th for OJ, just find the next gronk in the 15th round."

 

3 hours ago, dashoe said:

What's funny is OJ truthers(the same 2-3 guys) being dismissive, personalizing comments, ignoring valid points  and ridiculing  other views that don't align with theirs. . .😂

 

This might be the most ironic thing I've ever seen.

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On 4/3/2019 at 7:26 AM, SharkSwimmer said:

Congrats, you made me do work.  I am usually a "type the first take that jumps into my head" type of poster.

Bruce Arians was the offensive coordinator for Pittsburgh from 2007-2011.  During those years, Heath Miller averaged 602.4 receiving yards and 4 TDs per season.

And, while Arians was head coach at Arizona, where we can infer that Arians's thinking as a football mind evolved, and his control over personnel packages and gameflow were greater, the TEs did far, far worse.

So I will say it again.  Bruce Arians does not use TEs in his offenses.  I love OJ Howard as a player during those rare times that he is healthy, but I am going to aim much higher than 600 yards and 4 TDs for my fake foosball TE.

I know this post was a while ago but I had to comment.  The production of past TE's in this offense is irrelevant because Howard is going to do much more per target.  In fact, as I stated before he's been the #1 TE in the league 2 years in a row in yards per target.  What matters for OJ Howard is how many targets he will get.

 

Not surprisingly in Arizona TE's were not targeted often and David Johnson was targeted quite often.  The RB groups in AZ never received less than 99 targets in Arizona under Bruce Arians.

 

We previously went over the fact that Heath Miller had a season of 98 targets in this offense.  A good start for an argument since Miller is nowhere near the talent of OJ Howard.

 

Well, Arians also targeted the TE position 118 times in his 1 year stint in Indy.  The TE's this year included Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen(not even really that talented).  Guess what else happened this year?  195 targets to Reggie Wayne, 123 targets to DONNIE AVERY.  90 targets to T.Y. Hilton.  AND A MEASLY 41 targets to a RB group led by Vick Ballard.  Proving that there is a DIRECT CORRELATION between the # of targets to each position and the level of talent at each position.  EVEN IN BRUCE ARIANS' OFFENSE.

 

To expect anything less than Heath Miller's 98 targets for OJ HOWARD is not a good bet.  Especially given the RB group in TB.  To expect less than the 118 position targets that Fleener and Allen got in Indy from Howard and Brate is also a terrible bet.

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23 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

This might be the most ironic thing I've ever seen.

I'm hope it doesnt escape you.. . 🤣

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I know this post was a while ago but I had to comment.  The production of past TE's in this offense is irrelevant because Howard is going to do much more per target.  In fact, as I stated before he's been the #1 TE in the league 2 years in a row in yards per target.  What matters for OJ Howard is how many targets he will get.

 

We previously went over the fact that Heath Miller had a season of 98 targets in this offense.  A good start for an argument since Miller is nowhere near the talent of OJ Howard.

 

Well, Arians also targeted the TE position 118 times in his 1 year stint in Indy.  The TE's this year included Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen(not even really that talented).  Guess what else happened this year?  195 targets to Reggie Wayne, 123 targets to DONNIE AVERY.  90 targets to T.Y. Hilton.  AND A MEASLY 41 targets to a RB group led by Vick Ballard.  Proving that there is a DIRECT CORRELATION between the # of targets to each position and the level of talent at each position.  EVEN IN BRUCE ARIANS' OFFENSE.

 

To expect anything less than Heath Miller's 98 targets for OJ HOWARD is not a good bet.  Especially given the RB group in TB.  To expect less than the 118 position targets that Fleener and Allen got in Indy from Howard and Brate is also a terrible bet.

 

Amazingly in your quest to be right you keep supporting everything I have stated in this thread and  don't help your arguments.

I keep telling you that you are too focused on absolute number of targets and not looking at target share of a position group and individuals in order to do a proper comparative.

2009 Steelers= 534 targets

Heath Miller = 98 = 18% target share

2 other te's also listed as fb's

Pitt TE group = 20%

 

Indy 2012 = 616 targets

Allen =66 = 11%

Fleener=48 = 8%

Saunder=4

Indy TE group = 19% target share

 

tampa targets 2018= 619  2017 =596

OJ 2017 = 8%  2018= 12%

Brate  2017 = 12%    2018= 8%

Cross 3%

Tampa TE share 2017 =23%   2018= 23%

 

The target share distribution to the TE group amongst on these Arians coached teams looks almost identical with tampa exceeding both indy+pitt. . . 🤓

So exactly what was your point about comparing the TE group of Indy to Tampa or Pitt? . . .🤣

The indy team splits on 3 te's is almost identical to tampa splits. where oj is allen and brate is fleener . .👀

So  we have established that the 2 examples of Arians coached teams where he had productive TE's  the percentages of target share are very similar at  20% and 19%

So if anything you can conclude tampa's group will LOSE  3% target share or maybe stay the same?

 

In your attempt of comparing your examples of arains targeting TE's the . . . SUMMATION IS YOU PROVED NOTHING  👁️

 

As I keep explaining to you truthers who keep dismissing facts, OJ needs to increase his target share %  to about 20% and that should come at the expense of Brate unless Arians decides he want's a TE heavy pass offense and he bumps their collective share up to 25-30%, which is probable 

But the fact is Arians has never had a single TE get more than 18% target share and you need 25% of pass-rz/ez to contend with the current  elite 3 of Kelce-ertz-kittle-gronk, other wise you are a good TE but not a huge differnce maker. 

 

 

Heath target share is your best hope but Heath ddnt have a nother talented TE on the roster with him. Brate is not a negligible factor on OJ's production he is the actual cap that prevents OJ from getting opportunity to be an elite TE

Why are you truthers so adverse to accept these simple facts. . . 😂

 

All you really need to state is you BELIEVE OJ will get an increased target share because that is what you BELIEVE  but there is no evidence  today or historically to suggest that this will happen beyond speculation and coach speak.  👏

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I keep telling you that you are too focused on absolute number of targets and not looking at target share of a position group and individuals in order to do a proper comparative.

2009 Steelers= 534 targets

Heath Miller = 98 = 18% target share

2 other te's also listed as fb's

Pitt TE group = 20%

 

Indy 2012 = 616 targets

Allen =66 = 11%

Fleener=48 = 8%

Saunder=4

Indy TE group = 19% target share

 

tampa targets 2018= 619  2017 =596

OJ 2017 = 8%  2018= 12%

Brate  2017 = 12%    2018= 8%

Cross 3%

Tampa TE share 2017 =23%   2018= 23%

 

Is it really possible that I have to explain to you that TE target share % is based on the total # of pass attempts?  😮

 

98 targets in the 2009 Steelers offense was 18.3%.  98 targets in the 2018 Bucs offense was 15.8%.  Some some reason in your logic the 98 targets on the 2009 Steelers were more valuable because the % higher 😂

 

Quote

As I keep explaining to you truthers who keep dismissing facts, OJ needs to increase his target share %  to about 20% and that should come at the expense of Brate unless Arians decides he want's a TE heavy pass offense and he bumps their collective share up to 25-30%, which is probable

He absolutely 100% does not.  Those are facts.  The idea that Howard has to dominate to be worth a 5th round pick is a confusing one.  Truth be told he needs around 80-90 total targets just to be worth a 5th round pick in the first place(let alone a 6th rounder), anything more is just a bonus. 

 

Howard's targets are more value than any target to Heath Miller or Fleener or Allen or even Brate.  He's better than they are.

 

Quote

But the fact is Arians has never had a single TE get more than 18% target share and you need 25% of pass-rz/ez to contend with the current elite 3 of Kelce-ertz-kittle-gronk, other wise you are a good TE but not a huge differnce maker. 

Unless you're expecting Ertz and Kittle to be as good as last year (which I know you aren't) then this statement is not even close to accurate.  Once again and hopefully for the final time... THEY GO IN THE 3RD ROUND AND HOWARD GOES IN THE 6TH.

 

Quote

All you really need to state is you BELIEVE OJ will get an increased target share because that is what you BELIEVE  but there is no evidence  today or historically to suggest that this will happen beyond speculation and coach speak.  👏

 

Yes I do.  Because logic tells you just that.  The fact that I have to keep bringing up 160 vacant targets is hilarious.  Your take is that you BELIEVE the RB's will get a dramatically increases target share instead of one of the most talented TE's in the league.  You BELIEVE that Perriman or Watson will get a dramatically increased target share when again logic tells you otherwise.  You BELIEVE the pass attempts come down dramatically even though the RB's and defense suck.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

He absolutely 100% does not.  Those are facts.  The idea that Howard has to dominate to be worth a 5th round pick is a confusing one.  Truth be told he needs around 80-90 total targets just to be worth a 5th round pick in the first place(let alone a 6th rounder), anything more is just a bonus. 

 

 

 

You said top 2 to 5 TE and I am telling you he can't crack top 3 without higher target shares unless he is historically efficient.

So if you are telling us a 5th round pick for the 5th te taken off the board is fair value then GUESS WHAT. . .the consensus drafting community AGREES WITH YOU based on his current ADP. . . . I would even argue they are ebaking in a 15-18% target share or insane efficiency to get to a 5th rd adp . . .so you are not revealing anything that EVERYONE DOESNT ALREADY know. 👁️

What you are really doing is hyping him as a top 3 but you are hedging your tail off claiming he is value in the 5th rd but you won't say he is a top 3 te instead you run away from it saying top2-5  range with the bottom that you are drafting him at.

maybe you kind of miss the point of draft capital, I'm not drafting the #5 te to get #5 production, if I'm spending 5th rd draft capital I'm shooting for a top 3 te who is a weekly difference maker in the mold of kelce-ertz-kittle-gronk. . .those guys basically win their position slot on a weekly basis against the h2h opponent.

We already know he valued as #5. .  so tell us how he get's 2-3 without increasing is 12% target share on his offense? .. I honestly think you are going in circles of bad process just to be in opposition .🤪

Edited by dashoe
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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

Yes I do.  Because logic tells you just that.  The fact that I have to keep bringing up 160 vacant targets is hilarious.  Your take is that you BELIEVE the RB's will get a dramatically increases target share instead of one of the most talented TE's in the league.  You BELIEVE that Perriman or Watson will get a dramatically increased target share when again logic tells you otherwise.  You BELIEVE the pass attempts come down dramatically even though the RB's and defense suck.

 

1. I'm betting on rb share to increase in target share which is why I'm targeting the cheap tb rb's because I think the market is mispricing them based on last years production

2. I think the passing distribution will include all of the wr's evans+godwin+perriman+watson+miller

3. I think Brate if he is healthy and not traded will be the x factor in terms of oj's production. I don't think he is going to negligible as you think  and I can see him retaining his 8% share

4. I never said pass attempts will come down dramatically but I'm not assuming they stay the same either. which is why I focus on share percentage instead  total targets in the offense, higher share= more opportunity, more opportunity = more potential production= more fantasy points that I can predict on a week to week basis.  That's the key . Kansas City can remove 100 targets from their offense but I know Kelce will 25% of the remaining share and i will still be able to predict his production week to week.

5. I think it became clear last year you can't win games without defense and a run game and despite all of the passing offense the bucs put up they won 5 games which ended the tenure of the last coaching staff

The fact that you are planting your flag on 160 vacant targets being available is a bit comical because that number can easily be  in the range of 0-200

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