Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Is it really possible that I have to explain to you that TE target share % is based on the total # of pass attempts?  😮

 

98 targets in the 2009 Steelers offense was 18.3%.  98 targets in the 2018 Bucs offense was 15.8%.  Some some reason in your logic the 98 targets on the 2009 Steelers were more valuable because the % higher 😂

 

 

No that is a false conclusion on your part. I made no statement as to which groups targets are more valuable.

You used the steelers and colts as an example of Arians use of TE's. I showed you that the target shares  for the position were almost identical 20% vs 19%.

Stop attempting to twist the points to suit your bad process it demonstrates that you are losing yourself in your own argument 😂

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

Unless you're expecting Ertz and Kittle to be as good as last year (which I know you aren't) then this statement is not even close to accurate.  Once again and hopefully for the final time... THEY GO IN THE 3RD ROUND AND HOWARD GOES IN THE 6TH.

 

As of now Kelce is the only te I would say is a lock for a top3 finish this season

My bet is kelce-henry  today and #3 is no one I am willing to bet on until we get some preseason games in

Take doyle and brate off the field and I would put OJ and ebron in contention for the #3 spot with kittle and ertz. 

I actually think the consensus ADP's for te are relatively fair value  +/- 1 rd and until Brate is out of the picture I don't see much upside for OJ.

Now just for the record, I like Oj's talent a lot and I think he can be a kelce type if he gets the market share kelce gets as the #1 option in pass/rz/ez but I dont see that happening on this team. 

Tampa doesnt suck talent wise as many may think, the achilles heel of this offense is Jamesis because he has a pattern of making bad decisions with the ball that hurts his team.

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Posted (edited)

Valuing target share over total volume is bad process. Stats are based on volume, not % share of offense.

Elite offenses, the one’s that give us monster fantasy seasons, tend to have lots of good players that get touches. Targets may be spread around more, but the total offense will be better and everyone benefits. The Bucs have been will be an elite offense.

You go chase your Corey Davis target share champion types on low volume/bad offenses. Good luck with that!

Edited by MJJ28
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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

You said top 2 to 5 TE and I am telling you he can't crack top 3 without higher target shares unless he is historically efficient.

He's only done that his entire NFL career so I'm not sure why you're betting against it.

 

Meanwhile, this entire statement is only true if Ertz and Kittle are as productive as they were last season.  It's almost a virtual guarantee that they are not.

 

Quote

What you are really doing is hyping him as a top 3 but you are hedging your tail off claiming he is value in the 5th rd but you won't say he is a top 3 te instead you run away from it saying top2-5  range with the bottom that you are drafting him at.

What I am saying is that his floor is worth a 5th round pick and that anything else is a bonus.  Whether he finishes as the #5 or the #1 is irrelevant.  Is he not worth a 5th round pick if he out produces Ertz, Kittle, and Ebron but somehow 3 later round TE's outproduce him?  Your logic says no.  Real logic says yes, he just wasn't as good of a value as they were.

 

Real "value" is tied to the production of the player compared to the production of other players drafted in that round.  So you tell me, who exactly are you targeting in the 5th round?  Why are they a better value than Howard?

 

Quote

maybe you kind of miss the point of draft capital

Looks like we'll have to agree to disagree here.  Although, only one of us is actually right.

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In the 5th I would probably target a RB who could become a league winner if everything broke right for him.  Maybe someone like Sony Michel was in 2018.  Not Howard, who I think will be a nice player but too inconsistent to be a true difference maker.

Also I do not play ppr, and I suppose Howard could be more valuable in ppr than he is in standard.  5-50-0 does not help me much in my format, but naturally it is pretty good for ppr.

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3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

Valuing target share over total volume is bad process. Stats are based on volume, not % share of offense.

I really wonder if you know what process means. . .😂

opportunity+production+efficiency = fantasy points

target share of the passing volume is the consistent metric that shows opportunity for a player. 

the player who has the highest amount of target share on his team has the most OPPORTUNITY on that team

Mike Evans gets 22%-24% of his teams passing volume and OJ gets 12% which player has the most opportunity or ask yourself in fantasy terms which player does the fantasy world value more?

Kelce gets p26% r26% e24%. . . OJ p12% r12% e7%. .   on  2 teams who  each have between 500-600 targets . . .which TE has more opportunity? Do I really need to keep deconstructing these simple concepts for you because you want to debate your bad process on this topic? 🤪

 

so when you guys are quoting 'vacated targets" as an absolute number  you instead should convert it into vacated target share because you don't know if any of the volume will be replaced  but it is safe to say that the position target shares in the offense will be about the same give or take a few percentage points.

Seattle removed 126 targets from their offense last year their target volume decreased from 526 to 400 but Doug Baldwins share remained at 22% and locketts increased from 14%to 17% (conversely SEA added 130 rushing attempts to their offense)

Total volume is the first step in looking at opportunity on an offense but the target share percentage is a way of understanding the DISTRIBUTION OF OPPORTUNITY on a team. 

Instead of maintaining nonsensical banter with me where you keep trying to prove me 'wrong' or discredit me for your reasons , simply ask yourself is Arians going to increase OJ's target share enough to support his 5th rd price, exceed his price or is he going to keep it the same? We know the te group in his previous offense has had 20% targets share and one te with no competition had 18%

Again I will contend with Brate on the field Oj's share is not going to improve much maybe 3-5% if I push it and I think those 160 vacated targets RMJ keeps droning on about as if they are guaranteed will more than likely be distributed throughout the entire offense. not concentrated in 1 or 2 players.  👀

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

Valuing target share over total volume is bad process. Stats are based on volume, not % share of offense.

Elite offenses, the one’s that give us monster fantasy seasons, tend to have lots of good players that get touches. Targets may be spread around more, but the total offense will be better and everyone benefits. The Bucs have been will be an elite offense.

You go chase your Corey Davis target share champion types on low volume/bad offenses. Good luck with that!

 

1. which is why I focused my OJ  comp to Kelce on the high end and Henry on the value end, both in elite offenses. . DID YOU MISS THAT PART😂

2. I tend to avoid fantasy players on bad offenses regardless of market share (buffalo, miami,nyj,etc) again you are assuming I draft based off of one metric in this silly quest of yours to 'expose me" 😂 I get it dude you're upset because I think you are currently over hyping OJ and you didnt like that I said your process  of drafting him  because tampa having the #2 pass offense last year and extrapolate the missing games was terrible. . . just terrible😜

FYI i did draft corey davis as my wr4  last year as a pure volume bet( adams-amari-edelman-davis) but never anticipated mariotta being so bad. . .😂

Edited by dashoe

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, dashoe said:

target share of the passing volume is the consistent metric that shows opportunity for a player. 

the player who has the highest amount of target share on his team has the most OPPORTUNITY on that team

 

 

Wrong. Opportunity is there for everyone. Target share is just a reflection of how opportunity is divided. You’ve still got your cause and effects confused.

Edited by MJJ28
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

1. which is why I focused my OJ  comp to Kelce on the high end and Henry on the value end, both in elite offenses. . DID YOU MISS THAT PART😂

2. I tend to avoid fantasy players on bad offenses regardless of market share (buffalo, miami,nyj,etc) again you are assuming I draft based off of one metric in this silly quest of yours to 'expose me" 😂 I get it dude you're upset because I think you are currently over hyping OJ and you didnt like that I said your process  of drafting him  because tampa having the #2 pass offense last year and extrapolate the missing games was terrible. . . just terrible😜

FYI i did draft corey davis as my wr4  last year as a pure volume bet( adams-amari-edelman-davis) but never anticipated mariotta being so bad. . .😂

 

Corey Davis was a 5th round pick last year. How'd you draft him as your 4th WR?

Edited by dmb3684

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2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Corey Davis was a 5th round pick last year. How'd you draft him as your 4th WR?

I do auctions only one other person bid on him towards end of auction. . . 😂

 

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7 minutes ago, dashoe said:

I do auctions only one other person bid on him towards end of auction. . . 😂

 

 

Well it was a good pick at the time then. Mariotta is the worst.

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Wrong. Opportunity is there for everyone. Target share is just a reflection of how opportunity is divided. You’ve still got your cause and effects confused.

What part of my post  which you are responding to  where I stated " target share percentage is a way of understanding the DISTRIBUTION OF OPPORTUNITY on a team"  blew your mind?   👀

As usual you don't disappoint with a response that says nothing except you only want to disagree with me even when you agree with me. . .😂

 Keep them coming dude I am always willing to challenge my processes but what about you?. . .😱

 

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

Well it was a good pick at the time then. Mariotta is the worst.

Well at the time I thought Lafleur introducing his west coast scheme plus the addition of dion and the loss of rishard was going to elevate Davis into a year 2 breakout phenom and when Delanie went down week 1 I THOUGHT I had a league winner. . . and dropped him wk 8 to use the bench space . . . 🤣

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

opportunity+production+efficiency = fantasy points

Total volume is the first step in looking at opportunity on an offense but the target share percentage is a way of understanding the DISTRIBUTION OF OPPORTUNITY on a team. 

You're right about one thing.  opportunity+production+efficiency = fantasy points

 

But opportunity = volume and quality of targets not target %

 

Did you know the TE target share in Tennessee was 21%?  Why?  Because they only threw 437 passes.  What did that 21% share equal in targets? 90 targets.  Wait.. but the TE target % in TB was only 17.7 and it was 110 targets?  Do you understand yet?

 

Target % is and end result of the distribution of targets but does not directly correlate to the total # of targets which is the only thing that matters.

Quote

Kelce gets p26% r26% e24%. . . OJ p12% r12% e7%. .   on  2 teams who each have between 500-600 targets . . .which TE has more opportunity?

More than likely the guy drafted in the early 2nd round

 

Quote

Seattle removed 126 targets from their offense last year their target volume decreased from 526 to 400 but Doug Baldwins share remained at 22% and locketts increased from 14%to 17% (conversely SEA added 130 rushing attempts to their offense)

And that's EXACTLY what they told you they were going to do last offseason.  Show me where the Bucs mentioned that in their plans.  Did they show you in the draft?  Nope.  Free agency?  Nope.

 

Quote

I think those 160 vacated targets RMJ keeps droning on about as if they are guaranteed will more than likely be distributed throughout the entire offense. not concentrated in 1 or 2 players.  👀

They don't have to be concentrated on 1 or 2 players for them to matter lol.  Howard needs 2 per game to take a step into elite territory.

 

BREAKING NEWS ROTOWORLD!!!!!!!

I was actually wrong about the total number of vacant targets between Humphries and Jackson, it 189 not 160.  BUT WAIT we forgot about Jacquizz Rodgers!!!!  That makes the actual vacant target number 234 VACANT TARGETS!!!!!!!!!

 

37.8% vacant target.  TB does not have to throw 625 passes next year for that to matter.

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You say that Arians is a smart coach and will use his Tampa players wisely in 2019, therefore OJ Howard will be a zomg lol fantasy gawd.

But what if Arians takes a smart approach with Jameis Winston?  Namely, run the ball, play defense, and once in a while take a shot down the field to limit turnover potential?  

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You're right about one thing.  opportunity+production+efficiency = fantasy points

 

But opportunity = volume and quality of targets not target %

 

Did you know the TE target share in Tennessee was 21%?  Why?  Because they only threw 437 passes.  What did that 21% share equal in targets? 90 targets.  Wait.. but the TE target % in TB was only 17.7 and it was 110 targets?  Do you understand yet?

 

 

 

1.  you first look at target share on the players offense to see the opportunity on their team

2. then you look at target share vs other players you want to comp to

Did u miss the post where I stated my comps were te's in good passing offenses similar to Tampa like KC= kelce #1te /Bolts= Henry trading behind OJ based on adp and I'm not comparing it to the jets/bills?  You know there are certain teams who feature their te's in the passing game and those that do not?

Also 2018 tenn is a bad comp due to delanie missing the entire season. . . but you already knew this but that doesnt stop you from using the bad comp anyway as long as you can try to prove your irrelevant point 🤣

You love to keep dismissing what i actually state 🤣

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12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

1.  you first look at target share on the players offense to see the opportunity on their team

2. then you look at target share vs other players you want to comp to

That is YOUR process, that doesn't mean it makes any sense.

 

12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Also 2018 tenn is a bad comp due to delanie missing the entire season. . . but you already knew this but that doesnt stop you from using the bad comp anyway as long as you can try to prove your irrelevant point 🤣

 

What comp?  😂

 

I didn't even mention production in my post.  It wasn't a comp, it was showing you how percentages work.

 

Talk about "being quick to respond" and "not actually reading a post"  🙄

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

In the 5th I would probably target a RB who could become a league winner if everything broke right for him.  Maybe someone like Sony Michel was in 2018.

Who?  Not "someone like Sony Michel last year".  Great hindsight analysis.  Who are you targeting in the 5th and 6th round?

Edited by RMJ_12

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

You say that Arians is a smart coach and will use his Tampa players wisely in 2019, therefore OJ Howard will be a zomg lol fantasy gawd.

But what if Arians takes a smart approach with Jameis Winston?  Namely, run the ball, play defense, and once in a while take a shot down the field to limit turnover potential?  

You have to be built to run the ball to actually do it.  The Bucs don't have a RB, an offensive line, or a defense so good luck to them.

 

When has Bruce Arians ever had a run first approach?  He threw the ball 598 times with 3 different QB's in 2017.  568 times without Palmer(for 10 games) in 2014.

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who?  Not "someone like Sony Michel".  Who?

If you're looking for a potential homerun (with chance of a whiff) I think Guice is an option.

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11 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

If you're looking for a potential homerun (with chance of a whiff) I think Guice is an option.

guice-drake-miller-coleman . all have a path to success if you want to take  a shot but i like the wr's in this part of the draft better

golladay-godwin-williams-watkins-alshon-lockett

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who?  Not "someone like Sony Michel last year".  Great hindsight analysis.  Who are you targeting in the 5th and 6th round?

Well it's only May so there is a lot more info to collect.  One name that seems to percolate up for me is Sanders of Philly.  As of right now, I believe I have enough info on Howard to know I won't be taking Howard in the 5th.  If something were to happen to Brate, it might slightly alter my thinking, but probably not much.

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Well it's only May so there is a lot more info to collect.  One name that seems to percolate up for me is Sanders of Philly.  

Sanders won't be drafted anywhere near the top of the 6th round come August.

Edited by RMJ_12

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16 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

If something were to happen to Brate, it might slightly alter my thinking, but probably not much.

So Brate is enough of a worry to avoid Howard but not enough to alter your view of Howard if he were gone?  Seems like your opinion of Howard was already made up before this thread started.

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20 minutes ago, dashoe said:

guice-drake-miller-coleman . all have a path to success if you want to take a shot but i like the wr's in this part of the draft better

golladay-godwin-williams-watkins-alshon-lockett

Yeah... Golladay is a 4th round pick.  Godwin a whole round before Howard as well.

 

Pretty everyone else you listed has a lower floor and a lower ceiling than OJ Howard.  And at a more volatile position.

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