Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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47 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

If you're looking for a potential homerun (with chance of a whiff) I think Guice is an option.

Sound a lot like a TE I know, without the whiff part.

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4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Sound a lot like a TE I know, without the whiff part.

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6 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Sanders won't be drafted anywhere near the top of the 6th round come August.

I don't care about adp.  I draft the players I want.  I would never wait on a player I think is going to break out because his adp is too low to take him in this round or that round.  I think I am beginning to see your problem...

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6 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

So Brate is enough of a worry to avoid Howard but not enough to alter your view of Howard if he were gone?  Seems like your opinion of Howard was already made up before this thread started.

Correct.  When Bruce Arians was named head coach of Tampa, my hopes for Howard went way down.  But it turns out I keep visiting this thread because I like to debate about individual NFL players and fantasy football in general.  I understand this is, at times, a forum for such activities.

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Who?  Not "someone like Sony Michel last year".  Great hindsight analysis.  Who are you targeting in the 5th and 6th round?

 

8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yeah... Golladay is a 4th round pick.  Godwin a whole round before Howard as well.

 

Pretty everyone else you listed has a lower floor and a lower ceiling than OJ Howard.  And at a more volatile position.

 

I am convinced you never fully read a post before you reply simply because you only care about making your point against any that are not in agreement with you. .🤣

1. The question posed to Shark was ''who are you targeting in the 5th(FIFTH) round'' in refernce to rb's. .  I offered a few  including both wr's and rb's. i reference ffc because that is a generic source highly cited in the forums that anyone can access

2. Godwin+golloday. . . hey wtf is that Howard also in the 5th. . . well I guess they are all 5th rd picks along with OJ. . . .👀

3. The criteria was not floor and ceiling  nor volatility. it was who, targeting,5th rd. .. . tighten up the reading comprehension or at least refer to the actual posts you make before replying. for a more fruitful discussion . .. . 🤪

 

19 4.12 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 9 47.8 4.6 3.04 5.10 156
20 5.01 Kenny Golladay WR DET 5 48.6 4.0 4.01 6.06 228
21 5.06 Chris Godwin WR TB 7 54.1 4.0 4.08 6.06 193

 

59 5.08 Mike Williams WR LAC 12 55.9 5.0 4.07 6.10 261
60 5.11 Jordan Howard RB PHI 10 58.8 6.7 4.05 6.12 158
61 5.11 Sammy Watkins WR KC 12 59.2 5.6 4.05 7.04 388
62 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.6 5.7 3.12 6.11 140

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

2. Godwin+golloday. . . hey wtf is that Howard also in the 5th. . . well I guess they are all 5th rd picks along with OJ. . . .👀

 

                       
                   

As I stated before you showed that you cannot read Golladay is a 4TH round pick.  Keep targeting him in the 5th round. 

 

The point of the question (which i also asked you) was to show that Howard(the thread we are in) IS A VALUE.  Another problem you have is referring to Howard as a 5th round pick when in reality he is a 6TH round pick.  He is drafted AFTER most of the players mentioned.

 

You are so obsessed with getting out a reply and personally attacking everyone that you never even stop to fully understand what someone is saying and then throw that same theory in their face.  I have literally squashed every argument you have against OJ Howard but you continue this page after page. 

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I don't care about adp.  I draft the players I want.  I would never wait on a player I think is going to break out because his adp is too low to take him in this round or that round.

Oh Dear God.

 

I'm saying Sanders will be drafted WAY BEFORE the 6th round.  Not after.

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9 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Seems like your opinion of Howard was already made up before this thread started.

 

2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Correct. 

 

You're beginning to see my problem?  Thanks bud.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

As I stated before you showed that you cannot read Golladay is a 4TH round pick.  Keep targeting him in the 5th round. 

 

The point of the question (which i also asked you) was to show that Howard(the thread we are in) IS A VALUE.  Another problem you have is referring to Howard as a 5th round pick when in reality he is a 6TH round pick.  He is drafted AFTER most of the players mentioned.

 

You are so obsessed with getting out a reply and personally attacking everyone that you never even stop to fully understand what someone is saying and then throw that same theory in their face.  I have literally squashed every argument you have against OJ Howard but you continue this page after page. 

According to consensus  of thousands doing mocks daily to create a generic ADP he is a 5th rd pick regardless of your personal view 🤣

I love how you keep moving the point like a hot potato when you are caught . . .🤪 

Keep shooting as you go down in flames maverick. . .🔥

Also I don't attack everyone, that's what you do with anone who disagrees with you same as you did in the Adams thread, it's a pattern of yours as a truther. I like to beat down bad process and misinformation of those who who refuse to accept there is an alternative opinion.

You even follow me around in other threads making comments about OJ. .  who does that?😱

Interestingly I am not anti- OJ and even  showed a realistic path to him reaching top3, you on the other just hype and talk about extrapolation   'vacated targets' as if they are magical beans. . .🤣

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

I'll even do you one better here is the most recent  PPR adp  since ppr is the default scoring system in fantasy leagues today. So your half ppr adp is not relevant and my last adp posted was pulled from the std scoring default is not relevant because in the forums everyone assumes ppr scoring for discussion unless  specified. 

 

38 4.02 Julian Edelman WR NE 10 37.6 3.9 3.03 4.11 174
39 4.02 Kerryon Johnson RB DET 5 38.3 3.4 3.03 4.12 187
40 4.04 Sony Michel RB NE 10 40.0 4.1 2.09 5.02 152
41 4.05 Phillip Lindsay RB DEN 10 41.3 4.1 3.04 5.04 149
42 4.06 Brandin Cooks WR LAR 9 41.6 3.3 2.11 5.07 151
43 4.06 Mark Ingram RB BAL 8 41.8 4.2 3.06 5.03 127
44 4.06 Kenny Golladay WR DET 5 42.1 4.5 3.01 5.06 124
45 4.07 David Montgomery RB CHI 6 43.4 4.4 3.06 5.05 98
46 4.09 Robert Woods WR LAR 9 45.2 3.3 4.01 5.05 121
47 4.10 Andrew Luck QB IND 6 45.6 6.3 2.06 6.01 98
48 4.10 Cooper Kupp WR LAR 9 46.5 4.2 3.12 5.10 142
49 4.11 Chris Carson RB SEA 11 47.4 4.9 3.11 6.01 135
50 4.12 Sammy Watkins WR KC 12 48.2 4.9 4.01 6.01 102
51 5.02 Calvin Ridley WR ATL 9 50.0 4.4 4.05 6.03 110
52 5.04 Chris Godwin WR TB 7 52.3 4.7 4.01 6.01 130
53 5.06 Aaron Rodgers QB GB 11 53.6 6.3 3.07 6.06 122
54 5.06 Kenyan Drake RB MIA 5 53.9 5.0 3.07 7.03 167
55 5.06 Jarvis Landry WR CLE 7 54.1 6.2 3.12 6.09 129
56 5.07 Tarik Cohen RB CHI 6 54.7 5.1 4.04 6.11 159
57 5.07 Tyler Lockett WR SEA 11 55.4 4.6 4.05 6.07 141
58 5.08 Mike Williams WR LAC 12 56.5 5.2 4.07 6.11 160
59 5.09 Eric Ebron TE IND 6 57.1 7.1 4.02 6.11 75
60 5.10 Deshaun Watson QB HOU 10 58.5 5.2 4.12 6.08 98
61 5.11 Derrius Guice RB WAS 10 58.9 5.7 4.07 7.07 156
62 5.12 O.J. Howard TE TB 7 59.5 5.9 4.01 6.09 84
63 5.12 James White RB NE 10 59.9 4.9 4.10 6.12 164

 

 

Now that we have a common reference point in ppr I will restate my answer and 

in the 5th I prefer williams-lockett-guice-drake-godwin  and watkins who can either be 5.01 or 4.12   all those players  have interesting paths to breakout fantasy success

I also will repeat if I take a TE in midrounds Henry is the best choice given his situation and price. . I would even reach for him in the 5th if I knew I couldnt get him in the 6th.

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38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Interestingly I am not anti- OJ

🤣

 

You sure love to leave room to backtrack just in case you're wrong.

 

See you in October.

 

38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

You even follow me around in other threads making comments about OJ. .  who does that?😱

 

You mean I make comments about your OJ Howard take in TE debate threads?  😯

 

38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

in the 5th I prefer williams-lockett-guice-drake-godwin and watkins who can either be 5.01 or 4.12   all those players  have interesting paths to breakout fantasy success

All of those players have just as big if not bigger question marks than Howard.  That was the point of presenting the question.  You stated that OJ Howard is not a value in the 5th round.  That is wrong.

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37 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

  You stated that OJ Howard is not a value in the 5th round.  That is wrong.

 

Correct he is not a "value" in the 5th rd.  You initially stated he was a top5 te before planting your flag on him finishing top2 to 5. . . 🤣 

I stated Howard was fairly priced by the consensus as  TE#5 so taking him in the 5th or 6th is irrelevant to the fact that the consensus agrees he is te#5. 

You are only pointing out what is already known by the majority and thus not getting any discount on his "value". You are paying market price.   You are saying the equivalent of Zeke is a "value" in the 1st rd if he finishes in the top 3. . .which nobody says because that's the right price.🤪

Value for me in fantasy is picking a player who will  outperform his ADP/consensus price. So unless you are saying OJ is a top3 TE there is no real "value" in his price if he finishes as te#5 which is why you keep hedging with "his floor is te5". I think hunter is mis-priced in the 6th rd  as te7 and I would draft him expecting a top3 finish not te7 finish; thats a waste because te7 may as well be te12 on any given week. 

I would be better off saving my draft capital  for a wr/rb and streaming te's off the waiver  because i have to fill  2+2+1 slots weekly with rb/wr positions and can afford risk the random scoring in the te position if I don't have a consistent weekly top 4 te. TE#5 is  the equivalent of a push with draft capital.

You can't even say with confidence OJ will finish top3. . . because you want wiggle room yet you keep hyping him as if he will be top 3 . . but u keep reminding us it's ok if he finishes  te5. . . 

it's ok the water is wet. . . 🤣

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

You initially stated he was a top5 te before planting your flag on him finishing top2 to 5. . . 🤣 

 

Isn't that the same thing? 🤣

 

Correct, I said he was a top 5 TE.

 

You asked me where I think he will finish and I said between TE #2 and TE #5 and for some reason you have a big issue with that 🤔

 

12 minutes ago, dashoe said:

You are saying the equivalent of Zeke is a "value" in the 1st rd if he finishes in the top 3. . .which nobody says because that's the right price.🤪

 

The reason Zeke would not be a value if he finishes top 3 is because he is drafted 1 or 2 draft spots away from(or even way before) the others that finish in the top 3.

 

OJ Howard on the other hand is drafted 3 full rounds later than any TE drafted in the top 3 at TE.

 

Understand value yet?  I'm guessing no.  See you on page 36.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Isn't that the same thing? 🤣

 

Correct, I said he was a top 5 TE.

 

You asked me where I think he will finish and I said between TE #2 and TE #5 and for some reason you have a big issue with that 🤔

 

 

I just think it's hilarious that when pressed  reduce  from Top 5 to  HOLD THE PRESSES . . Top 2to5. . . 😂 

Like wow dude you are really making a big call here for a te currently ranked as te5 by the consensus. 

You are inadvertently saying he will finish closer to te5 than he will te1 . . you won't even raise his floor to te4. . . .Sooo much VALUE. . . 😂

So my issue is you  don't even believe you own hype when asked where you project his finish but you are willing to debate his  VALUE to the death because we don't share your hedged view. . .🤪

You can't even show us how he gets to te2-t3 aside from the usual drivel about vacated targets and extrapolate last years games.

OMG YOU MEAN I CAN DRAFT A TE5 IN THE 5TH ROUND THAT I AM PROJECTING CAN FINISH AS THE TE5? 

YOU GUYS DON'T SEE THE VALUE?!?!

THAT"S CRAZY!!!!. . 😂

 

I'm am finished commenting on the OJ thread until there is some news that affects his outlook. . .would love to see Brate traded to NE which would unlock both of their full values,  which of curse won't happen 👋

😘

Edited by dashoe

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You are inadvertently saying he will finish closer to te5 than he will te1 . . you won't even raise his floor to te4. . . .Sooo much VALUE. . . 😂

 

No(again correcting you from putting words in people's mouths), what I was saying is that he probably won't outscore Travis Kelce.

 

Very difficult stuff to understand, I know.

 

He will outscore Ebron, maybe Hunter Henry goes off this season idk.  I just like Howard's chances more.  As do I like his floor more.

Edited by RMJ_12

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

 

You're beginning to see my problem?  Thanks bud.

Lol, you kind of fit the bill of "made up mind already" so I don't know how you can toss that around about others.

  • Haha 1

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The idea of value is getting lost. I’d rather pay 5th TE price for the 4th TE than I would pay a TE 15 price for TE 8

  • Thanks 1

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

The idea of value is getting lost. I’d rather pay 5th TE price for the 4th TE than I would pay a TE 15 price for TE 8

What's getting lost is the idea that value is based on how many fantasy points you score in relation to ADP, not the # at your position you were drafted at compared to the # you finished.

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18 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Lol, you kind of fit the bill of "made up mind already" so I don't know how you can toss that around about others.

I change my mind if a valid argument is used.

 

He also openly admitted to it.

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Hypothetical 2019 end of season finishes:

 

TE #1 Travis Kelce 270 ppr points

TE #2 George Kittle 255 ppr points

TE #3 Zach Ertz 245 ppr points

TE #4 Hunter Henry 235 ppr points

TE #5 OJ Howard 230 ppr points

 

What @dashoe is saying is that OJ Howard is not a "value" in the late 5th or early 6th round even if he is barely outscored by guys drafted 2.5-3.5 rounds ahead of him because he was drafted as the TE5 and finished as the TE5.  That is called "being wrong".

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

I change my mind if a valid argument is used.

 

He also openly admitted to it.

I had OJ Howard on my fantasy team last year.  It wasn't all that great in my touchdown heavy standard format.  And then he got hurt.  Again.  Twice.

And then Tampa hired Arians.  "Well, so much for OJ Howard," thought I.  But, might as well pop into his thread for 2019.  Perhaps my friends from the forum can shed some wisdom on this question: how far does OJ Howard have to fall (I assumed it would be pretty far) to actually be a bargain again?

And then I enter.  And some folks are, ridiculously, saying that Howard is on the verge of a major breakout.  So, naturally, I joined the scrum.

I don't participate in these forums to have my mind changed.  Although I came around on Carlos Hyde 2018.  I do so to gauge value and try to figure out how the fantasy community, and thus my league rivals, likely view and value certain players.

Last year I was in the Le'Veon Bell thread from early September on.  I never changed my mind about Bell.  He's a nut job.  But I did gain valuable insight from that thread.  I learned that I should pick up James Conner.  And I learned that I should take all the reports that Bell was soon to return with a huge grain of salt.  I realized that trading for Bell as a hedge close to week 7 would have been stupid.  And I concluded the correct handcuff for Conner was Samuels not Bell.  And, in large part because I had the Steelers running backs all year for cheap, I made it to the championship game in my league.  Thanks, rotoworld forum!

This year, my participation in the OJ Howard thread is helping me in a similar fashion.  It seems likely that at least one or two team managers in my league will err the way RMJ_12 is doing.  So now I know I can nominate Howard when there are only a few TEs left, and someone else will likely bid him up.  So I can grab the TE or TEs I really want.

And, if Howard gets off to a slow start, I will know not to overpay if the team manager with Howard dangles him in a trade.  After all, I might need a decent backup TE for bye weeks and the like.

Edited by SharkSwimmer

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25 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I had OJ Howard on my fantasy team last year.  It wasn't all that great in my touchdown heavy standard format.

What was it about OJ Howard's top 6 production at the position thru the first 10 weeks that "wasn't all that great"?  Especially since he was a 13th round pick.

 

25 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

And then I enter.  And some folks are, ridiculously, saying that Howard is on the verge of a major breakout.

If you read the thread you would understand why it's not "ridiculous"

 

Quote

I don't participate in these forums to have my mind changed.  

I can see that

 

The problem is that your posts are all opinion based and involve no statistics or facts, all speculation.

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