Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Been seeing this guy consistently ranked as TE#4, above Hunter Henry and Evan Engram.  I think the gap between Howard and Henry is closer.  Both coming off injuries but presumably both 100%.  Howard has Brate to contend with, but there is some targets up for grabs with DJax and Humphries leaving, but also has target monster Mike Evans and a rising Chris Godwin.  Henry seemingly has the job to himself - no old man Gates so far.  I believe Howard had the most fantasy points per target for tight ends, and certainly seems athletic enough to get to the next level.  But haven't people been saying that about Henry as well? 

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I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

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3 minutes ago, bomont said:

I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

 

That's a lot of money to spend on the tightend position. I doubt youd get your money's worth but maybe they both hit and are top 3 guys. Ya never know

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4 minutes ago, bomont said:

I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

Ah, that's tough.  Both are likely about 5th/6th round picks.  So in a snake, that would be a lot of draft capital, especially if you are in a traditional 1 TE league.  Auction different story but I suspect their respective costs will be about the same.

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Both together would probably cost less than any of the top 3 alone, but you may be right. We have a few new people so I'm hoping the others buy the top guys and the new guys are timid bidders!

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26 minutes ago, CooL said:

Howard has Brate to contend with, but there is some targets up for grabs with DJax and Humphries leaving, but also has target monster Mike Evans and a rising Chris Godwin. 

240 targets are gone from last year.  How many more targets can Evans get?  He was 12th in the league with 138.  Godwin also probably had more than you think last year with 95.  Howard is as safe as they come in 2019.  His upside is tremendous.

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Howard is still going in the 5th in most mocks. As much as I like him, for me the 5th comes down to Howard or Jacobs.  I think I'd rather pick up Jacobs and then McDonald in the 10th.

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

240 targets are gone from last year.  How many more targets can Evans get?  He was 12th in the league with 138.  Godwin also probably had more than you think last year with 95.  Howard is as safe as they come in 2019.  His upside is tremendous.

But you're using stats from a previous coaches offense. Winston/Magic combined for a 5,625 yards on 624 attempts. Palmers biggest with Arians was 1k yards and nearly 100 attempts less, Bens was 1300 yards and 120 attempts less,  similar attempts with Luck but 1300 yards less again.

 

I think there are far less attempts this year, so of those vacated 240, I would say only 100-120 will be available. Last years offensive numbers will regress in passing and attempts.

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

I think there are far less attempts this year, so of those vacated 240, I would say only 100-120 will be available. Last years offensive numbers will regress in passing and attempts.

That would make sense if they didn't have an almost guaranteed bottom 5 defense and no running game, but here we are.

 

I also don't think those teams had the WR and TE talent that the Bucs have now.

 

I didn't use any stats except # of targets..

Edited by RMJ_12

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3 hours ago, bomont said:

I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

 

I'll give you the complete downside of this strategy.  I assume you can flex one. 

Had this brilliant idea last year in my auction.   TE's are scarce!  I had money to burn because I whiffed on RB's, and thought two top 10 TE's would help me get capital to make a trade for a better back or at least make TE a strength to overcome the RB weakness.     Worst case scenario i have to hit on at least one, right?

I took Rudolph and Walker, both tied for the 7th most expensive TE (so probably a little less than your pair would cost).       By week 2 i had one tight end, and I went 3 months without a TD catch from him.   For the cost of both players, I easily get Zach Ertz instead.   The best TE's i got off waivers all year were Will Dissly and Geoff Swaim, so I had to grind out every week with Rudolph as my starter.

 

Now, the optimistic spin.  If you do hit on both these guys, you're gonna be feasting a bit because we're all fairly certain that a strong TE1 is going to be a thing that maybe half the teams in the league will own.   Got two?  If you can play them both, all the better for flexing.     I'd try to trade in your shoes but not for less than a strong return.  You'll have 4-5 teams at least spewing out crap at TE every week.  One of them will cave. 

 

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Great thoughts, thanks.  This is just a thought right now; I'm guessing the draft won't go that way. I actually did this once as an adjustment to my strat; I went a little RB heavy and WRs suddenly were flying left and right, and I couldn't get even the mid-tier value I expected, so I ended up getting 1 top TE and one upper tier who I felt was still bound to do better than the WRs left. I forget who they were but one got hurt early and the other disappointed.

So like I was saying, never mind. 

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4 hours ago, bomont said:

I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

 

Please don't do this.

 

Thank you,

       DmB3684

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5 hours ago, CooL said:

Been seeing this guy consistently ranked as TE#4, above Hunter Henry and Evan Engram.  I think the gap between Howard and Henry is closer.  Both coming off injuries but presumably both 100%.  Howard has Brate to contend with, but there is some targets up for grabs with DJax and Humphries leaving, but also has target monster Mike Evans and a rising Chris Godwin.  Henry seemingly has the job to himself - no old man Gates so far.  I believe Howard had the most fantasy points per target for tight ends, and certainly seems athletic enough to get to the next level.  But haven't people been saying that about Henry as well? 

 

Lol so Keenan Allen isn't a target monster and Mike Williams isn't rising?

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Fair points but there should be a lot of those short and mid-range targets for Henry. Plus IMO odds are between Allen and Williams, one will miss time. 

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6 hours ago, bomont said:

I was just thinking....if it falls right, I might try to go for Howard AND Henry. Both have injury issues but I would think one will stay healthy and really produce. If I'm lucky, both will and I have trade bait. 

As others have mentioned, that's too much to sink into the TE position.  I think you would be better served doing more research into each of those guys and have your tier ranking ready.  If one doesn't fall to you at the right price, have to some sleepers ready to draft later on...maybe take two of those guys if your benches are deep enough.

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I am not saying this will be my plan. I'm saying as a fallback and again IF things fall that way. You're assuming those guys will go for the prices everyone expects them to and everyone predicts. There are always players in my draft that don't follow that script.

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1 hour ago, bomont said:

I am not saying this will be my plan. I'm saying as a fallback and again IF things fall that way. You're assuming those guys will go for the prices everyone expects them to and everyone predicts. There are always players in my draft that don't follow that script.

A bit of semantics: when you say "if things fall that way"; fine, but then it's not a fallback plan. 

Of course most people would be happy to grab 2 of the most promising TEs at bargain price, but you need luck for that to happen. Your fallback plan on the other hand should be "well if everything fails I can still do XYZ."

Detail of course, but as someone who deals with real life planning on a daily basis (and optimistic clients and colleagues), it's an important detail to me.

I can get behind the idea of spending cash on those 2, it's a bold move, but I see what you would do. But in your scenarios, then assign too much cash to them, so you have wiggle room.

Grabbing bargains is fine, in fact, it's a winning strategy. But planning for a specific player to be a bargain is doomed to fail.

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4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

A bit of semantics: when you say "if things fall that way"; fine, but then it's not a fallback plan. 

?  Yes it is. If things fall in "that way" i.e. other than how I hope (and plan) and in a way that favors such a strat, which is a fallback strat.......not sure what you're getting caught up on but whatever.

 

Quote

Of course most people would be happy to grab 2 of the most promising TEs at bargain price, but you need luck for that to happen.

Kinda. I don't know what people are thinking about those 2, so "luck" in the sense that people who see the upside end up opting to spend money elsewhere, and of those left, they don't agree as much on the upside. 

 

Quote

Your fallback plan on the other hand should be "well if everything fails I can still do XYZ."

I don't know about you but for me a fallback plan isn't a single option, worst case, all-or-nothing deal. I have various fallback plans. That's just one. IMO they are a must in 

 

Quote

Grabbing bargains is fine, in fact, it's a winning strategy. But planning for a specific player to be a bargain is doomed to fail.

Well duh.  :) Good thing that's not what I'm doing. It's just one of many possible options I was thinking about.

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21 hours ago, bomont said:

I am not saying this will be my plan. I'm saying as a fallback and again IF things fall that way. You're assuming those guys will go for the prices everyone expects them to and everyone predicts. There are always players in my draft that don't follow that script.

Are you hoping to slot one in the flex and trade? If you’re planning on picking a player that early to trade him you’re going to have a bad time

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On 6/20/2019 at 7:24 PM, bhawks489 said:

Are you hoping to slot one in the flex and trade? If you’re planning on picking a player that early to trade him you’re going to have a bad time

In my experience (at least in my leagues) people who try to corner the market on a weak position (TE in this case) like he's describing usually ends up backfiring... you're banking on a number of things breaking right/run the risk of several things happening:

1. health of both players - can be said for every single player at any position but still applies

2. you need to nail your picks at other positions or you risk being weak at another position and end up needing to trade more than another team

3. the market for this position being as depressed as you think it will be (TEs could emerge throughout the season)

4. if a waiver wire TE emerges you're less likely to take a stab at them because you're already rostering 2 TEs

5. you're much better off flexing a RB or WR than a mid-tier TE

In short, it's a bad idea for a number of reasons.

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OJ Howard should be a great pick this year. I think his ADP is spot on. How is hunter Henry still a top 5 TE? I understand position scarcity/talent/opportunity big man this guy really just hasn't done it yet. Way to much risk. Give me Vance McDonald 4 rounds later all day long. 

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My biggest OJ Howard question so far this offseason... How in the hell does he already have 38 pages on here? 

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47 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

My biggest OJ Howard question so far this offseason... How in the hell does he already have 38 pages on here? 

It's a great read if you have a few hours

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On 7/9/2019 at 11:50 AM, LarryDavid said:

My biggest OJ Howard question so far this offseason... How in the hell does he already have 38 pages on here? 

Mainly due to people just endlessly repeating themselves.  I got off the bus about 20 pages ago because there simply wasn’t anything new being added.

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