Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's morning, but thank you.

True - thus the Frosted Flakes reference!  It’s all coming together now...

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4 hours ago, BMcP said:

Brate scored TDs in 3 of the 10 games Howard played in last season.

I honestly don’t understand the concern about Brate. So he scores a TD every now and then. He’s been there all along and Howard has still produced at a high level. Dallas Goedert scored 4 TDs last year, I don’t see much panic amongst Ertz owners.

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3 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I honestly don’t understand the concern about Brate. So he scores a TD every now and then. He’s been there all along and Howard has still produced at a high level. Dallas Goedert scored 4 TDs last year, I don’t see much panic amongst Ertz owners.

OJ Howard has not yet produced at a high level.  So far in his career, Howard's season ending numbers have fallen short of peak Heath Miller.  Part of that is health, part of that is usage, and part of that is Brate and Evans.

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

OJ Howard has not yet produced at a high level.  So far in his career, Howard's season ending numbers have fallen short of peak Heath Miller.  Part of that is health, part of that is usage, and part of that is Brate and Evans.

Add Godwin now to the mix. Plus they'll address the RB need in the draft.

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42 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

OJ Howard has not yet produced at a high level.  So far in his career, Howard's season ending numbers have fallen short of peak Heath Miller.  Part of that is health, part of that is usage, and part of that is Brate and Evans.

Negative, Ghost Rider. All of that is health. Of course his end-of-season numbers will suffer if he misses multiple games. That’s a nutty way to evaluate and project. 

Howard indeed produced at a high level in 2018. Using my leagues relatively normal .5 ppr acoring system, his roughly 8 fantasy ppg in 2018 extrapolates to 128 total fantasy points over a full 16 games. That would’ve been good enough for a 5th place finish among all fantasy TE’s in 2018, in just his second year in the league.

Entering his said-to-be-magical third year as an NFL TE, as a weapon in what should be an explosive, high scoring offense, it’s more than reasonable to project a healthy OJ Howard taking another step toward, if not entering, the elite tier.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

Add Godwin now to the mix. Plus they'll address the RB need in the draft.

Is this reposted from last off-season? They already did those exact things in 2018, and as you’ll see above, Howard had a terrific  sophomore season.

Edited by Lamont Sanford

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2 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Howard indeed produced at a high level in 2018. Using my leagues relatively normal .5 ppr acoring system, his roughly 8 fantasy ppg in 2018 extrapolates to 128 total fantasy points over a full 16 games. That would’ve been good enough for a 5th place finish among all fantasy TE’s in 2018, in just his second year in the league.

 

 

But last season had a few fantasy hopeful tight ends get hurt. Hunter henry, delanie Walker, evan engram. Injuries are crazy but maybe they dont all get injured and finish ahead of OJ? Just playing devils advocate your actually really selling me on OJ.

 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, BMcP said:

Brate scored TDs in 3 of the 10 games Howard played in last season.

 

One of those was after OJ left the game with injury and another one was in a game OJ also scored a touchdown. Like I said, Brate was irrelevant.

Edited by MJJ28

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1 hour ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Negative, Ghost Rider. All of that is health. Of course his end-of-season numbers will suffer if he misses multiple games. That’s a nutty way to evaluate and project. 

Howard indeed produced at a high level in 2018. Using my leagues relatively normal .5 ppr acoring system, his roughly 8 fantasy ppg in 2018 extrapolates to 128 total fantasy points over a full 16 games. That would’ve been good enough for a 5th place finish among all fantasy TE’s in 2018, in just his second year in the league.

Entering his said-to-be-magical third year as an NFL TE, as a weapon in what should be an explosive, high scoring offense, it’s more than reasonable to project a healthy OJ Howard taking another step toward, if not entering, the elite tier.

 

I understand OJ Howard is talented, and if he had not missed over 1/3 of the season in 2018, his meagre numbers may have looked better.  But you say he was highly productive in 2018 when he produced 500 yards receiving and 5 TDs, and that is not my definition of the term.  Howard will have nearly as much competition for targets with Brate, Evans, Godwin, and probably some offensive draft picks in the house, plus he is moving to an offensive sytem under Bruce Arians that has not produced a 'highly productive' TE in ten consecutive seasons.  

Will Howard overcome all of that?  I hope so, I really like the player.  But I think it is probably going to cost too much to find out, and the chances of it not happening seem pretty high to me.

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1 hour ago, MJJ28 said:

 

One of those was after OJ left the game with injury and another one was in a game OJ also scored a touchdown. Like I said, Brate was irrelevant.

 

Brate vultures TDs and Jameis loves him. Saying he is 'irrelevant' is just wrong here.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Brate vultures TDs and Jameis loves him. Saying he is 'irrelevant' is just wrong here.

 

Sorry but the facts don’t agree with you.

Brate had 1 measly target inside the 10 last year in games OJ played (that was not caught) and only 3 targets inside the 20 (with 1 catch for 1 TD). Brate doesn’t vulture anything.

Edited by MJJ28

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The talent is there for sure. He's young and will continue to get better. A lot of options in this offense though and that is the concern here.  He will have his games for sure but will the consistency be there? This is going to be one to watch come this summer and where his ADP ends up. There will be some people reaching for the potential and I'm not sure I'm ready do to that. I believe but someone will likely grab him earlier than I would feel comfortable.

Consistent targets and usage each game.... that is the question.

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1 minute ago, Big Nate said:

The talent is there for sure. He's young and will continue to get better. A lot of options in this offense though and that is the concern here.  He will have his games for sure but will the consistency be there? This is going to be one to watch come this summer and where his ADP ends up. There will be some people reaching for the potential and I'm not sure I'm ready do to that. I believe but someone will likely grab him earlier than I would feel comfortable.

Consistent targets and usage each game.... that is the question.

 

His targets and usage was very consistent last season when healthy (only one game with less than 53 yards), and he will have less competition for targets than last year (180 targets left the room). I don’t think consistent targets and usage is much of a concern.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Sorry but the facts don’t agree with you.

Brate had 1 measly target inside the 10 last year in games OJ played (that was not caught) and only 3 targets inside the 20 (with 1 catch for 1 TD). Brate doesn’t vulture anything.

 

So you think Brate's statline this year will be 0/0/0?

 

If not, you are wrong and Brate is certainly part of the discussion

 

Edited by dmb3684
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

One of those was after OJ left the game with injury and another one was in a game OJ also scored a touchdown. Like I said, Brate was irrelevant.

So scoring 2 TDs in 9 games played - for a TE - is “irrelevant.”  (Note, it doesn’t matter what Howard did, it only matters what Brate did for relevancy purposes.)

Edited by BMcP

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

I honestly don’t understand the concern about Brate. So he scores a TD every now and then. He’s been there all along and Howard has still produced at a high level. Dallas Goedert scored 4 TDs last year, I don’t see much panic amongst Ertz owners.

The cause for concern isn’t really the number of TDs scored - it is the tendency of Jameis Winston to lock onto Brate as a target in the red zone.  They have undeniable chemistry in the one area of the field most likely to produce touchdowns.

Edited by BMcP

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7 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Howard indeed produced at a high level in 2018. Using my leagues relatively normal .5 ppr acoring system, his roughly 8 fantasy ppg in 2018 extrapolates to 128 total fantasy points over a full 16 games. That would’ve been good enough for a 5th place finish among all fantasy TE’s in 2018, in just his second year in the league.

 

Even if we just bank him for a fifth-place TE finish in 2019 - despite the fact that the coaching staff who avidly used him as a downfield weapon is now gone - is that sufficient return for a fifth-round investment?  I wouldn’t think so, personally.

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Even if we just bank him for a fifth-place TE finish in 2019 - despite the fact that the coaching staff who avidly used him as a downfield weapon is now gone - is that sufficient return for a fifth-round investment?  I wouldn’t think so, personally.

 

That's 5th place with a slew of other tight ends being injured for a large chunk of the season. Last year hunter henry may of had a 15 td season. Engram may of gotten 10. Who knows?. I think you could spend a 5th rounder much more wisely. 

 

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15 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

 

That's 5th place with a slew of other tight ends being injured for a large chunk of the season. Last year hunter henry may of had a 15 td season. Engram may of gotten 10. Who knows?. I think you could spend a 5th rounder much more wisely. 

 

Playingh the what ifs is a dangerous game. Howard was also injured last year too.

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15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Playingh the what ifs is a dangerous game. Howard was also injured last year too.

Right - but we are ignoring that for purposes of this hypo and projecting his points over a full season played.

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16 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Playingh the what ifs is a dangerous game. Howard was also injured last year too.

 

Yea but he was extrapolating howards stats through 16 games. So that's basically assuming howard stays healthy but everyone else gets to stays hurt. I think that's kind if a flawed argument. 

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I expect Evan Engram and Hunter Henry both to be cheaper than OJ Howard, and those first two guys are also very talented, play in more TE-friendly systems, and may have less competition for targets.

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I expect Evan Engram and Hunter Henry both to be cheaper than OJ Howard, and those first two guys are also very talented, play in more TE-friendly systems, and may have less competition for targets.

 

I have a feeling the secret will get out on Henry and his ADP will shoot up 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BMcP said:

So scoring 2 TDs in 9 games played - for a TE - is “irrelevant.”  (Note, it doesn’t matter what Howard did, it only matters what Brate did for relevancy purposes.)

 

Yes, Brate was irrelevant to OJs production. He had virtually no impact on what Howard did last year. Not sure why you are saying it doesn’t matter what OJ did when this is what I’ve been saying this whole time. People in here acting as if Brate is a threat to Howard’s work when that is demonstrably false, he is irrelevant.

Edited by MJJ28

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9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Yes, Brate was irrelevant to OJs production. He had virtually no impact on what Howard did last year. Not sure why you are saying it doesn’t matter what OJ did when this is what I’ve been saying this whole time. People in here acting as if Brate is a threat to Howard’s work when that is demonstrably false, he is irrelevant.

The reason Brate is relevant to Howard’s production is precisely what I stated above - i.e., his QB locks onto Brate in the red zone.  If you don’t think having another team-mate vulturing RZ targets is “relevant,” I don’t know what to tell you.  You can’t count on Howard - or basically any player - consistently scoring from between the 20s on a regular basis.

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