Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Yea but he was extrapolating howards stats through 16 games. So that's basically assuming howard stays healthy but everyone else gets to stays hurt. I think that's kind if a flawed argument. 

I don’t think that’s what he was saying.  I think he was saying, hypothetically, that even if we project Howard’s points over a full season and assume a 5th-place finish, that still doesn’t account for the fact that other TEs who might have finished in the top 5 also played partial seasons and could’ve ended up scoring more points.

Edited by BMcP

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

The reason Brate is relevant to Howard’s production is precisely what I stated above - i.e., his QB locks onto Brate in the red zone.  If you don’t think having another team-mate vulturing RZ targets is “relevant,” I don’t know what to tell you.  You can’t count on Howard - or basically any player - consistently scoring from between the 20s on a regular basis.

 

He doesn’t lock on to Brate in the redzone, that’s false. Brate had 1 measly target inside the 10 all season when OJ was healthy, and 3 inside the 20 all season when OJ was healthy (and only 1 redzone TD when OJ was healthy). When OJ is on the field Brate is irrelevant. These are just facts.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He doesn’t lock on to Brate in the redzone, that’s false. Brate had 1 measly target inside the 10 all season when OJ was healthy, and 3 inside the 20 all season when OJ was healthy (and only 1 redzone TD when OJ was healthy). When OJ is on the field Brate is irrelevant. These are just facts.

Source?  Are you only talking about one season where they shared the field?  Because they did so for two seasons.

Edited by BMcP

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That source says he has 3 TDs from inside the 10. Not 1 measly target

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12 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Source?  Are you only talking about one season where they shared the field?  Because they did so for two seasons.

 

Are you dense? How does two seasons ago mean anything when OJ clearly passed Brate on the pecking order last year? 

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4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Or is all of that after howard got hurt?

 

Yes. OJ got hurt week 4 and week 10. Do the math.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

Thank you - so Brate was targeted 5 times in the RZ when Howard was healthy and scored two TDs.  

 

And in 2017, while Howard was healthy, Brate was targeted a whopping 13 times - and scored 5 TDs on those targets.

 

Yes, I agree, totally irrelevant.

Edited by BMcP
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8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

That source says he has 3 TDs from inside the 10. Not 1 measly target

He was targeted twice in the RZ while Howard was healthy and scored on both targets.

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You could argue that target in week 3 shouldnt count either since Fitzmagic was the qb and not winston. But I think saying cameron brate is irrelevant is a little much. Will he steal the show from howard? Probably not but can he pilfer 3 or 4 TDs and some yards probably. Hell every pass thrown to brate is a knock cuss hes clearly not as good as howard. What is a catch and tackle for brate could be a catch and 40 yard yac for howard.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

He was targeted twice in the RZ while Howard was healthy and scored on both targets.

 

2 targets. “Locks on.”

lol.

Even bigger lol when one of those two was from Fitzmagic.

Edited by MJJ28

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9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

2 targets. “Locks on.”

lol.

Even bigger lol when one of those two was from Fitzmagic.

Dude, believe what you will - I seriously don’t care.  You obviously ignored all the articles from 2018 talking about how the presence of Brate would lower Howard’s ceiling due to Winston’s proclivity for locking onto him in the RZ.  You have yet to address why Brate was so frequently targeted in 2017 while Howard was healthy. 

I’m not sure why bringing up that Fitz was the QB throwing TDs to Brate in the RZ helps your case - so two QBs were looking for him there?

Yes, completely irrelevant.

 

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Dude, believe what you will - I seriously don’t care.  You obviously ignored all the articles from 2018 talking about how the presence of Brate would lower Howard’s ceiling due to Winston’s proclivity for locking onto him in the RZ.  You have yet to address why Brate was so frequently targeted in 2017 while Howard was healthy. 

I’m not sure why bringing up that Fitz was the QB throwing TDs to Brate in the RZ helps your case - so two QBs were looking for him there?

Yes, completely irrelevant.

 

 

I ignored them because they are false. Jameis doesn’t favor Brate, but he does throw to TEs. OJ was a rookie 2 years ago in the slowest developing position. Last year he passed Brate on the pecking order and Brate was an afterthought. It’s really not that complicated.

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10 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

I ignored them because they are false. Jameis doesn’t favor Brate, but he does throw to TEs. OJ was a rookie 2 years ago in the slowest developing position. Last year he passed Brate on the pecking order and Brate was an afterthought. It’s really not that complicated.

False?!  Here’s a 2018 Week 13 article, courtesy of The Washington Post (excerpted below):

Brate and Jameis Winston have formed a powerful connection over their respective careers, with three of Brate’s four touchdowns this year coming on Winston passes.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/2018/11/28/fantasy-football-players-you-need-your-lineup-week/

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

False?!  Here’s a 2018 Week 13 article, courtesy of The Washington Post (excerpted below):

Brate and Jameis Winston have formed a powerful connection over their respective careers, with three of Brate’s four touchdowns this year coming on Winston passes.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/2018/11/28/fantasy-football-players-you-need-your-lineup-week/

 

 

Where was that connection when OJ was playing, because OJs made Brate an afterthought when he was on the field?

Edited by MJJ28

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27 minutes ago, BMcP said:

You have yet to address why Brate was so frequently targeted in 2017 while Howard was healthy.

Howard was a rookie...

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Where was that connection when OJ was playing?

So, we get to throw out an entire season’s worth of production and tendencies because Howard was still “under development”?  Look, I get it, you’re beyond convincing.  If you wish to obstinately cling to the fantasy that Winston doesn’t regard Brate as a preferred TD target, and therefore the presence of Brate on the team in 2019 is “completely irrelevant” to Howard’s outlook, that’s your prerogative.  But for the sake of other forum members weighing whether they should target Howard with a fifth-round pick, I felt it was necessary to note that Brate is a factor in that decision.

Edited by BMcP
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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

For the sake of other forum members weighing whether they should target Howard with a fifth-round pick, I felt it was necessary to note that Brate is a factor in that decision.

Why, because they both play the Tight End position?  Are you saying that when Brate is on the field that Howard won't be?  There are 160 targets missing from the 2018 team, why is that not enough for Howard's value as a fantasy player?

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why, because they both play the Tight End position?  Are you saying that when Brate is on the field that Howard won't be?  There are 160 targets missing from the 2018 team, why is that not enough for Howard's value as a fantasy player?

No - because, as has been amply demonstrated, Winston has a connection with Brate when it comes to TDs.  Claiming that Brate is “completely irrelevant” for purposes of evaluating Howard is...not accurate.  (Assuming that TB will only score a finite number of TDs.)

Edited by BMcP

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why, because they both play the Tight End position?  Are you saying that when Brate is on the field that Howard won't be?  There are 160 targets missing from the 2018 team, why is that not enough for Howard's value as a fantasy player?

 

Yes, because they both play the same position. On the same team. If you go to the Hunt thread you will see a lot of Chubb talk and vice versa. To say Brate is  'irellevant ' to the discussion is just false. 

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, BMcP said:

So, we get to throw out an entire season’s worth of production and tendencies because Howard was still “under development”?  Look, I get it, you’re beyond convincing.  If you wish to obstinately cling to the fantasy that Winston doesn’t regard Brate as a preferred TD target, and therefore the presence of Brate on the team in 2019 is “completely irrelevant” to Howard’s outlook, that’s your prerogative.  But for the sake of other forum members weighing whether they should target Howard with a fifth-round pick, I felt it was necessary to note that Brate is a factor in that decision.

 

How does Jameis prefer Brate as a TD target when he only has one more TD than OJ in 10 less games with recent trends favoring OJ? I cling to the fantasy that Winston doesn’t regard Brate as the preferred TD target because that’s what the facts say is true, which you seem to be ignoring.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)

I dont think they're saying that cameron brate is Winston's preferred option in all. Hes not winstons 1st, 2nd, and 3rd reads. I think hes saying that winston does have a connection with him and he does like to throw it to him and certainly isnt afraid to chuck some redzone passes to him. And if winston likes him he will get playing time and passes thrown to him. If Cameron brate was of no relevance the bucs would prolly cut him instead of extending his contract like they did. He cant block his way out of a paper bag so it's also safe to say when they're in 2 tight end sets it would probably continue to be OJ who stays in to block while brate runs a crossing route. 

Edited by Stonej14
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29 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

How does Jameis prefer Brate as a TD target when he only has one more TD than OJ in 10 less games with recent trends favoring OJ? I cling to the fantasy that Winston doesn’t regard Brate as the preferred TD target because that’s what the facts say is true, which you seem to be ignoring.

I wish you luck with Howard in 2019, MJJ28.  

For anyone else interested, Brate is definitely relevant to an assessment of Howard’s fantasy outlook in 2019.

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