Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I dont think they're saying that cameron brate is Winston's preferred option in all. Hes not winstons 1st, 2nd, and 3rd reads. I think hes saying that winston does have a connection with him and he does like to throw it to him and certainly isnt afraid to chuck some redzone passes to him. And if winston likes him he will get playing time and passes thrown to him. If Cameron brate was of no relevance the bucs would prolly cut him instead of extending his contract like they did. He cant block his way out of a paper bag so it's also safe to say when they're in 2 tight end sets it would probably continue to be OJ who stays in to block while brate runs a crossing route. 

 

Brate averaged less than 2 catches a game last year. He’s not stealing any work from anyone. Unless the thought is that his role will expand, his impact on other players’ potential production is virtually nothing. As far as OJs potential production goes, Brate is irrelevant.

Edited by MJJ28
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I wish you luck with Howard in 2019, MJJ28.  

For anyone else interested, Brate is definitely relevant to an assessment of Howard’s fantasy outlook in 2019.

 

Brate averaged less than 2 catches a game last year. He is not impacting anything fantasy wise. Good luck with whoever you select at TE BMcP. Gonna have a hard time finding someone worthwhile if that kind of production from a backup TE scares you so much.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate had less than 2 catches a game last year. He is not impacting anything fantasy wise. 

Howard averaged 3.4 catches per game - I honestly have no idea why you’re bringing up average receptions per game to support your argument.  My point had to do with TD passes and the connection between Winston and Brate in regard to that.

Edited by BMcP

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

Yes, because they both play the same position. On the same team. If you go to the Hunt thread you will see a lot of Chubb talk and vice versa. To say Brate is  'irellevant' to the discussion is just false. 

I assume you're avoiding Zach Ertz this year because Dallas Goedert scored 4 TD's last season?

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7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I assume you're avoiding Zach Ertz this year because Dallas Goedert scored 4 TD's last season?

I realize you’re again being flippant - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Eagles start using more 12 personnel this year, which will slightly affect Ertz’s numbers.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Yes, because they both play the same position. On the same team. If you go to the Hunt thread you will see a lot of Chubb talk and vice versa. To say Brate is  'irellevant ' to the discussion is just false. 

 

Chubb and Hunt are comparable talents with comparable potential. The same simply cannot be said about Howard and Brate. Howard has the potential to be a dominant, pro-bowl caliber TE. Brate is middling talent who catches a TD from time to time. 

Brate is less relevant to OJ Howards outlook than Goedert is to Ertz’s. Is the Ertz thread cluttered with Goedert fear?

 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Just now, BMcP said:

Howard averaged 3.4 catches per game - I honestly have no idea why you’re bringing up average receptions per game to support your argument.

 

Because this convo has shifted towards discussing whether or not Brate will be a factor impacting OJ’s workload. Unless you think Brate’s volume is going to increase, he’s not doing much to limit opportunities for others. Unless Brate magically gets better at football, he’s not limiting anyone. OJ also isn’t a factor limiting opportunities for others yet, but we haven’t been talking about that at all.

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Just now, MJJ28 said:

 

Because this convo has shifted towards discussing whether or not Brate will be a factor impacting OJ’s workload. Unless you think Brate’s volume is going to increase, he’s not doing much to limit opportunities for others. Unless Brate magically gets better at football, he’s not limiting anyone. OJ also isn’t a factor limiting opportunities for others yet, but we haven’t been talking about that at all.

Nothing I have said had to do with Howard’s workload.  My point - as I just stated - has nothing to do with reception volume.  It has to do with TD-scoring potential.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate averaged less than 2 catches a game last year. He’s not stealing any work from anyone. Unless the thought is that his role will expand, his impact on other players’ potential production is virtually nothing. As far as OJs potential production goes, Brate is irrelevant.

 

Ok can we try it a different unconventional way of looking at it. 

Since there are only 3 stud tight ends I say every reception matters for the rest of the hodge podge tight end landscape. Kittles back up only had 14 catches and kelces only had 16 catches. Dallas godert had 32. That doesnt hurt them much but for the middling tight ends it hurts a little bit more.

 

If we doubled their backups stats to the same as grates you essentially take away 15 catches from kelce and kittle.  at 10ypc your essentially taking away 150 yards and prolly a touch down or two. So take away 22-28 points off the top of kelce and kittle. Your still happy with it right?

But if Howard's back up only had 15 catches it helps him alot more cuss the middling tightends is a swamp that no one is happy with.

Since you extrapolated Howard's 16 game pace and he came up with 128 points.. if brate only gets 16 catches a season instead of 32 he is essentially giving 15 to 16 catches 150 to 160 yards and a td or 2 back to howard. Difference between 128 points and 150 something... so the difference in brate and no brate is 22 - 28 points? Not a big deal. All some of us are saying is you can prolly get 128 points later in the draft instead of the 5th round where chris Carson is going.

 

I know this is flawed and who is to say Howard isnt open more and gets more catches or drops 15 passes or blah blah blah. I'm just trying to show you how some of us skeptics are thinking. 

20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I assume you're avoiding Zach Ertz this year because Dallas Goedert scored 4 TD's last season?

 

Really unfair comparison. Ertz just recieved more catches than any tight end in history. If he loses 30 catches hes still a stud. Howard on the other hand hasnt produced like that and we dont know if he will be utilized in the arians offense. But godert will prolly take some burn away from ertz. 

 

Edited by Stonej14

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Ok can we try it a different unconventional way of looking at it. 

Since there are only 3 stud tight ends I say every reception matters for the rest of the hodge podge tight end landscape. Kittles back up only had 14 catches and kelces only had 16 catches. Dallas godert had 32. That doesnt hurt them much but for the middling tight ends it hurts a little bit more.

 

If we doubled their backups stats to the same as grates you essentially take away 15 catches from kelce and kittle.  at 10ypc your essentially taking away 150 yards and prolly a touch down or two. So take away 22-28 points off the top of kelce and kittle. Your still happy with it right?

But if Howard's back up only had 15 catches it helps him more alot more cuss the middling tightends is a swamp that no one is happy with.

Since you extrapolated Howard's 16 game pace and he came up with 128 points.. if brate only gets 16 catches a season instead of 32 he is essentially giving 15 to 16 catches 150 to 160 yards and a td or 2 back to howard. Difference between 128 points and 150 something... so the difference in brate and no brate is 22 - 28 points? Not a big deal. All some of us are saying is you can prolly get 128 points later in the draft instead of the 5th round where chris Carson is going.

 

I know this is flawed and who is to say Howard isnt open more and gets more catches or drops 15 passes or blah blah blah. I'm just trying to show you how some of us skeptics are thinking. 

 

Really unfair comparison. Ertz just recieved more catches than any tight end in history. If he loses 30 catches hes still a stud. Howard on the other hand hasnt produced like that and we dont know if he will be utilized in the arians offense. But godert will prolly take some burn away from ertz. 

 

 

Look, all I’ve been saying is that Brate is irrelevant to OJ’s outlook. Unless Brate magically becomes a guy he has never been before, he does not do enough to steal work from anyone who commands it. If OJ is actually the talent that I and many others peg him as, a guy like Brate isn’t going to stop him from putting up good numbers, especially when considering that they can both be on the field at the same time.

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I realize you’re again being flippant - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Eagles start using more 12 personnel this year, which will slightly affect Ertz’s numbers.

I flip you not

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Look, all I’ve been saying is that Brate is irrelevant to OJ’s outlook. Unless Brate magically becomes a guy he has never been before, he does not do enough to steal work from anyone who commands it. If OJ is actually the talent that I and many others peg him as, a guy like Brate isn’t going to stop him from putting up good numbers, especially when considering that they can both be on the field at the same time.

I’m calling straw-man here - the entire discussion thus far has revolved around Brate’s capping Howard’s TD potential.  No one has argued that Howard’s “workload” would be impacted in any way.

Edited by BMcP

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13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Nothing I have said had to do with Howard’s workload.  My point - as I just stated - has nothing to do with reception volume.  It has to do with TD-scoring potential.

 

So do you expect OJ to be removed from the game in favor of Brate near the end zone or something? Do you expect Jameis to avoid Howard when in the red zone? Do you expect Brate to siphon away so many TDs from everyone else that there is nothing leftover? What’s the fear here? Brate hasn’t been doing enough to limit opportunites for others to put up numbers, and the Bucs have a massive target vacuum, so what is the concern?

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Just now, MJJ28 said:

 

So do you expect OJ to be removed from the game in favor of Brate near the end zone or something? Do you expect Jameis to avoid Howard when in the red zone? Do you expect Brate to siphon away so many TDs from everyone else that there is nothing leftover? What’s the fear here? Brate hasn’t been doing enough to limit opportunites for others to put up numbers, and the Bucs have a massive target vacuum, so what is the concern?

No.  Not necessarily.  No.  

I’ve reiterated the fear here repeatedly - all that is needed is to read my posts.

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12 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Really unfair comparison. Ertz just recieved more catches than any tight end in history. If he loses 30 catches hes still a stud. Howard on the other hand hasnt produced like that and we dont know if he will be utilized in the arians offense. But godert will prolly take some burn away from ertz.

It's not unfair.  Last season Howard was competing for targets with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Desean Jackson, and Adam Humphries.

 

Last season Alshon Jeffrey missed all of training camp, preseason, and the first 3 games.  Who else was there, Nelson Agholor?

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

No.  Not necessarily.  No.  

I’ve reiterated the fear here repeatedly - all that is needed is to read my posts.

 

Your fear is not substantiated by facts though given that when Howard plays Brate isn’t really doing anything to limit Howard’s TD opportunities.

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Just now, MJJ28 said:

 

Your fear is not substantiated by facts though given that when Howard plays Brate isn’t really doing anything to limit Howard’s TD opportunities.

So you keep saying - the facts, unfortunately, are not in your favor, as I have pointed out above.

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

So you keep saying - the facts, unfortunately, are not in your favor, as I have pointed out above.

 

Brate caught 1 TD last year from Winston when Howard was on the field. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate caught 1 TD last year from Winston when Howard was on the field. 

And you continue to ignore an entire season.  And the fact that Brate was also targeted multiple times by their backup QB in the RZ for TDs.

MJJ28: feel free to ask the question to the general audience: do you believe Brate’s presence is relevant to Howard’s anticipated fantasy production?  You already know my opinion, so I will invite others to state their opinions.

Edited by BMcP

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

And you continue to ignore an entire season.  And the fact that Brate was also targeted multiple times by their backup QB in the RZ for TDs.

The argument just doesn't make any sense.  If Howard is still on the field then why do Brate's TD's matter?  They lost 9 TD's to free agency.  Is it not possible for Brate to score 4 TD's this season and Howard still have 10?

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

And you continue to ignore an entire season.  And the fact that Brate was also targeted multiple times by their backup QB in the RZ for TDs.

MJJ28: feel free to ask the question to the general audience: do you believe Brate’s presence is relevant to Howard’s anticipated fantasy production?  You already know my opinion, so I will invite others to state their opinions.

 

Brate’s presence is irrelevant to anyone’s anticipated fantasy production. Brate catches about two passes a game and scores a TD every once in a blue moon when he is in his typical backup role, which is to be expected next season given Howard’s health. It would be one thing if he was snagging 60, 70, 80, 90 balls a year and 7-10 TDs a season but at his extremely minimal usage level, he is not doing anything to slow anybody down if they are capable of commanding touches/TDs. He is the definition of irrelevant when discussing potential opportunity for other superior players.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate’s presence is irrelevant to anyone’s anticipated fantasy production. Brate catches about two passes a game and scores a TD every once in a blue moon when he is in his typical backup role, which is to be expected next season given Howard’s health. It would be one thing if he was snagging 60, 70, 80, 90 balls a year and 7-10 TDs a season but at his extremely minimal usage level, he is not doing anything to slow anybody down if they are capable of commanding touches/TDs.

As I indicated above, you should check with the forum community at large to see if they agree with you at this point.

Edited by BMcP

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Just now, BMcP said:

As I indicated above, you should check with the forum community at large to see if they agree with you at this point.  I simply have nothing more to argue at this point.

 

Ok. So far RMJ_12 does not believe Brate is commanding enough usage to limit opportunity for others.

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3 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

The argument just doesn't make any sense.  If Howard is still on the field then why do Brate's TD's matter?  They lost 9 TD's to free agency.  Is it not possible for Brate to score 4 TD's this season and Howard still have 10?

It makes perfect sense, if you assume (arguendo) that TB will score a finite number of TDs and Brate is a preferred TD target of the incumbent QB.

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1 minute ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Ok. So far RMJ_12 does not believe Brate is commanding enough usage to limit opportunity for others.

And dmb does - 1-1 so far.

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