Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

It makes perfect sense, if you assume (arguendo) that TB will score a finite number of TDs and Brate is a preferred TD target of the incumbent QB.

 

Or, in other words, things that are not true.

Edited by MJJ28
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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's not unfair.  Last season Howard was competing for targets with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Desean Jackson, and Adam Humphries.

 

Last season Alshon Jeffrey missed all of training camp, preseason, and the first 3 games.  Who else was there, Nelson Agholor?

 

Ok but like I said take away 30 catches from ertz hes still awesome 116 catches for 1160 yards. 86 for 860 is oj howard production levels that everyone here is seemingly pumped for.. I mean Alshon had more catches this year than he did in 2017. So did algholor. Then a new tightend came in and got 32 catches (trey burton only half 23 catches in 2017). So idk what the volume argument is about. Everyone in philly got the ball more than in 2017 and ertz still produced record numbers give godert 30 more of just ertz"s catches and hes still as good as howard better in ppr. Oh and no new system to learn in philly.

 

Oj played in 10 games and got 34 for 560. So 3.4 catches for 56 yards a game for 6 more games. Is roughly 20 more catches for 336 yards. 55 catches for 896. So we got Evan's demanding the ball, arians saying Godwin is 100 reception guy If brate is hanging around and takes any targets and TDs its puts a cap on Howard's production. And it may already be capped cuss of the unknowns in a arians offense . 

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What I’ve learned from reading this thread:

1- Bruce Arians doesn’t use tight ends.

2- The second string tight end will get so much use that the first string tight end won’t get enough use.

3- Profit?

4- This thread sucks.

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Oj played in 10 games and got 34 for 560. So 3.4 catches for 56 yards a game for 6 more games. Is roughly 20 more catches for 336 yards. 55 catches for 896.

He played in 10 games, he finished 8 of them I believe.  You can't do averages like that.  9 full games would be more accurate than 10.  He was also a sophomore and had Desean Jackson and Adam Humphries to compete with... we keep forgetting that.

 

8 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

So we got Evan's demanding the ball, arians saying Godwin is 100 reception guy If brate is hanging around and takes any targets and TDs its puts a cap on Howard's production. And it may already be capped cuss of the unknowns in a arians offense . 

Stop

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16 minutes ago, Dislimb said:

What I’ve learned from reading this thread:

1- Bruce Arians doesn’t use tight ends.

2- The second string tight end will get so much use that the first string tight end won’t get enough use.

3- Profit?

4- This thread sucks.

You’re a Tampa Bay guy - what do you think?

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23 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Or, in other words, things that are not true.

Complete.  Fiction.

“But Brate has been a favorite target for Winston during the past three seasons when he caught 128 passes for 1,539 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Last year Brate had 14 percent of Winston's targets and caught 26 percent of his touchdowns.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/tampa-bay-buccaneers/os-sp-bucs-1014-story,amp.html

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10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He played in 10 games, he finished 8 of them I believe.  You can't do averages like that.  9 full games would be more accurate than 10.

 

Well he got Injured almost at halftime week 4 and he got injured at nearly thr end of the game week 11. Late in the 4th. So played in 10. 8 full.  1 half and about 50 minutes of the last game. Essentially 9.5 games sorry I couldnt do better 10 was just a good whole number. And averages dont work like that. But someone already extrapolated his 16 game season on here the same exact way today so I thought it was ok for me to do it to. Sorry. But either way ertz and howard are poor comparisons as of now maybe not in the future. Ertz has 2 years of being beast. Howard has like a half a season of being good. 

 

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

You’re a Tampa Bay guy - what do you think?

 

When you factor in the prices, Mike Evans is the only player on the team that I’d be willing to draft right now at the going rate. Chris Godwin has a great chance at a breakout, but his hype is through the roof and his draft day price looks to be steadily climbing. All the other WRs suck.

All of the current RBs suck and unless they draft one, I’d avoid them completely.

Jameis Winston is a turnover machine. Pass.

O.J. Howard also has a lot of upside, but he’s being drafted too high. If Cameron Brate gets traded (which is certainly possible given that they need the cap space a lot more than they need his services) then I could justify him being the 5th TE off the board. Otherwise, there are TEs I like just as much that are going later.

So yeah, Evans is more than worth his 2nd round price tag but everyone else is too expensive. At least right now.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Complete.  Fiction.

“But Brate has been a favorite target for Winston during the past three seasons when he caught 128 passes for 1,539 yards and 17 touchdowns.

Last year Brate had 14 percent of Winston's targets and caught 26 percent of his touchdowns.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/tampa-bay-buccaneers/os-sp-bucs-1014-story,amp.html

 

Brate scored less TDs than Evans and Godwin last year and scored at a lower rate than Howard when Howard was active. 2017 he scored the same amount of TDs as Howard. 2016 he scored less TDs than Evans. He has never been the preferred TD option and his role in the offense is on the decline. He’s not the preferred TD target and will likely be the #4 TD target this coming season. What you’ve been saying about him just isn’t true.

Edited by MJJ28

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate scored less TDs than Evans and Godwin last year and scored at a lower rate than Howard when Howard was active. 2017 he scored less the same amount of TDs as Howard. 2016 he scored less TDs than Evans. He has never been the preferred TD option and is role in the offense is on the decline. He’s not the preferred TD target and will likely be the #4 TD target this coming season. What you’ve been saying about him just isn’t true.

What I said about him is that he is a preferred TD target of Jameis Winston.  Nothing you have said to date has disproven that true statement.

I mean, seriously, he caught over a quarter of Winston’s TDs - over a quarter.  5 of his 6 TDs in 2017 came in the RZ.  Contemplate that for a moment before continuing your argument that he is “completely irrelevant” to Howard’s outlook.

Edited by BMcP

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

What I said about him is that he is a preferred TD target of Jameis Winston.  Nothing you have said to date has disproven that true statement.

 

Other than the fact that he scores less TDs than other guys his QB throws to 😂.

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14 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Brate scored less TDs than Evans and Godwin last year and scored at a lower rate than Howard when Howard was active. 2017 he scored less the same amount of TDs as Howard. 2016 he scored less TDs than Evans. He has never been the preferred TD option and is role in the offense is on the decline. He’s not the preferred TD target and will likely be the #4 TD target this coming season. What you’ve been saying about him just isn’t true.

Seriously, you’re bringing up Mike Evans?  No, he’s not catching as many TDs as one of the best wideouts in the game. “Preferred” doesn’t mean “top” target, in case that wasn’t clear initially.

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13 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Other than the fact that he scores less TDs than other guys his QB throws to 😂.

Umm...see above when you stop crying.

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23 minutes ago, BMcP said:

What I said about him is that he is a preferred TD target of Jameis Winston.  Nothing you have said to date has disproven that true statement.

I mean, seriously, he caught over a quarter of Winston’s TDs - over a quarter.  5 of his 6 TDs in 2017 came in the RZ.  Contemplate that for a moment before continuing your argument that he is “completely irrelevant” to Howard’s outlook.

Are you actually including seasons that OJ Howard was in college for your argument?

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Are you actually including seasons that OJ Howard was in college for your argument?

You mean my argument that Brate is a preferred TD target of Winston?  Absolutely.  Why wouldn’t I?  The Winston-Brate connection began while he was in college, so of course.

Edited by BMcP

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people seem to be chalking this up to an Ebron/Doyle situation 

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5 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

people seem to be chalking this up to an Ebron/Doyle situation 

Only instead of a head coach like Reich who loves using his TEs in the passing game, you have his antithesis.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Only instead of a head coach like Reich who loves using his TEs in the passing game, you have his antithesis.

Arians is QB?

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

Arians is QB?

If so, knock Howard off your draft list 

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57 minutes ago, BMcP said:

You mean my argument that Brate is a preferred TD target of Winston?  Absolutely.  Why wouldn’t I?  The Winston-Brate connection began while he was in college, so of course.

Can Jameis throw to Brate if he isn't on the field?

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8 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Can Jameis throw to Brate if he isn't on the field?

I’m not sure but...I’m going to hazard a guess. 

 

No, Winston can’t throw to Cameron Brate if Cameron Brate is not on the field?

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7 hours ago, Dislimb said:

What I’ve learned from reading this thread:

1- Bruce Arians doesn’t use tight ends.

2- The second string tight end will get so much use that the first string tight end won’t get enough use.

3- Profit?

4- This thread sucks.

 

Lol, ya I'm gonna go hang out in the Brate thread, maybe some productive Howard talk there.

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Howard and Kittle and maybe Vance McDonald are exciting TEs who can score from any spot on the field.  Howard might be the most supremely talented TE in the entire league.  But Howard has a lot of hurtles to clear before he can be a fantasy football league-winner.  Not looking for an 800-7 TD guy.  I am talking major-breakout, now he's a 2nd round pick in 2020 type of season.  The hurdles, as I see them:

1)  Arians's system.  Please kindly gtfo with "hot takes" that Arians does not play QB.  Arians designs the entire offensive.  Arians loves to heavily feature one RB, and the passing offense runs through the WRs primarily.  Talking about route design, primary reads, mismatches, down and distance, and the like.  For ten consecutive Bruce Arians controlled seasons, 2007-2017, there was not one league winning performance from a TE from anyone on his rosters.

2)  Competition for targets.  On his own team, Howard lines up with an alpha-dog, red zone king, bona fide number one WR in Mike Evans.  In addition to him, there is Godwin whom the Bucs front office loves enough to let Humphries walk and peddle Desean back to Philly from whence he came.  And, quite relevantly, there happens to be another TE on the roster who is a much worse blocker but Winston loves to target in the red zone, and who also makes a lot more in salary than OJ Howard does.

3)  Health.  Howard has played in about 2/3 of his team's games so far in his career.  He seems like he is always dinged up with lower body injuries.  Contrast with a guy like Jason Witten, who never missed a game or even a snap in his long career.  Howard will score precisely 0 points for you in games he has been inactive, and, two seasons in, that has been a lot of games.

Will Howard overcome all these hurdles?  I hope he does.  I love the player.  And if he is reasonably priced on player selection day, he will be on my roster.  But all this coachspeak and a 5th round price tag driving it up?  Too rich for my blood.

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