Flyman75

O.J. Howard 2019 Outlook

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43 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Howard and Kittle and maybe Vance McDonald are exciting TEs who can score from any spot on the field.  Howard might be the most supremely talented TE in the entire league.  But Howard has a lot of hurtles to clear before he can be a fantasy football league-winner.  Not looking for an 800-7 TD guy.  I am talking major-breakout, now he's a 2nd round pick in 2020 type of season.  The hurdles, as I see them:

1)  Arians's system.  Please kindly gtfo with "hot takes" that Arians does not play QB.  Arians designs the entire offensive.  Arians loves to heavily feature one RB, and the passing offense runs through the WRs primarily.  Talking about route design, primary reads, mismatches, down and distance, and the like.  For ten consecutive Bruce Arians controlled seasons, 2007-2017, there was not one league winning performance from a TE from anyone on his rosters.

2)  Competition for targets.  On his own team, Howard lines up with an alpha-dog, red zone king, bona fide number one WR in Mike Evans.  In addition to him, there is Godwin whom the Bucs front office loves enough to let Humphries walk and peddle Desean back to Philly from whence he came.  And, quite relevantly, there happens to be another TE on the roster who is a much worse blocker but Winston loves to target in the red zone, and who also makes a lot more in salary than OJ Howard does.

3)  Health.  Howard has played in about 2/3 of his team's games so far in his career.  He seems like he is always dinged up with lower body injuries.  Contrast with a guy like Jason Witten, who never missed a game or even a snap in his long career.  Howard will score precisely 0 points for you in games he has been inactive, and, two seasons in, that has been a lot of games.

Will Howard overcome all these hurdles?  I hope he does.  I love the player.  And if he is reasonably priced on player selection day, he will be on my roster.  But all this coachspeak and a 5th round price tag driving it up?  Too rich for my blood.

Care to list all of the TEs that Bruce had on his staff? 

Here is what I came up with..

2011 Steelers - Heath Miller

2012 Colts - Coby Fleener

2013 Cardinals - Jim Dray / Rob Housler

2014 Cardinals - John Carlson 

2015 Cardinals - Darren Fells / Jermaine Gresham

2016 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

2017 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

 

Wow....What a murderers row of elite TEs....

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3 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Care to list all of the TEs that Bruce had on his staff? 

Here is what I came up with..

2011 Steelers - Heath Miller

2012 Colts - Coby Fleener

2013 Cardinals - Jim Dray / Rob Housler

2014 Cardinals - John Carlson 

2015 Cardinals - Darren Fells / Jermaine Gresham

2016 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

2017 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

 

Wow....What a murderers row of elite TEs....

Because the TE primarily blocks in Arians's system, there is no need to invest high dollars into that spot.  Arians has never been one to change his system to fit the players he inherits.  Your list helps to illustrate my point.  Thanks for posting.

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4 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Because the TE primarily blocks in Arians's system, there is no need to invest high dollars into that spot.  Arians has never been one to change his system to fit the players he inherits.  Your list helps to illustrate my point.  Thanks for posting.

I'm just going take the opposite of whatever you are guessing. It's batting 100 in 2019 so far

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Care to list all of the TEs that Bruce had on his staff? 

Here is what I came up with..

2011 Steelers - Heath Miller

2012 Colts - Coby Fleener

2013 Cardinals - Jim Dray / Rob Housler

2014 Cardinals - John Carlson 

2015 Cardinals - Darren Fells / Jermaine Gresham

2016 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

2017 Cardinals - Jermaine Gresham

 

Wow....What a murderers row of elite TEs....

1. “Bruce Arians doesn’t like throwing to his TEs.”

2. “See how bad Bruce Arians’ TEs were as receivers?”

Edited by BMcP
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20 minutes ago, BMcP said:

1. “Bruce Arians doesn’t like throwing to his TEs.”

2. “See how bad Bruce Arians’ TEs were as receivers?”

"Bruce Arians wont be throwing to his TEs thats for sure"

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

"Bruce Arians wont be throwing to his TEs thats for sure"

Pretty standard jargon for talking about a coach’s tendencies, no?  (My apologies if I misled anyone into believing Bruce Arians was the new Tampa Bay QB.)

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42 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Bruce Arians won’t even be calling plays.

Byron Leftwich will call plays for Buccaneers, per Bruce Arians

https://clutchpoints.com/buccaneers-news-byron-leftwich-call-plays-per-bruce-arians/

I understand that Leftwich will be calling the plays, but he will be calling plays in the Bruce Arians system.  You know, the one that has not heavily used a TE for catching passes for ten consecutive seasons?

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I understand that Leftwich will be calling the plays, but he will be calling plays in the Bruce Arians system.  You know, the one that has not heavily used a TE for catching passes for ten consecutive seasons?

 

Arians system obviously does have plays designed to involve the TE. Maybe Arians didn’t call those plays a ton, but Leftwich might. 

You’ve said you love OJ Howard the player multiple times, yet you can’t seem to understand why Arians/Leftwich might love him too? I don’t get that. Arians may simply use Howard in a non-traditional TE role to make use of his ability and mismatch potential. He’s not going to look at Howard, consider his tremendous upside, and say “darn, too bad we can’t throw it to him because he’s a TE.” A smart coach will make adjustments necessary  to best utilize his most talented players. Doing so doesn’t mean changing his entire philosophy and system, it’s simply making an intelligent adjustment.

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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Lots of “might’s” and “maybe’s” here - too many for a fifth-rounder, in my opinion.

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I get that Arians hasnt used the tight end position for big production in his past...I get that he hasnt had a ton of talent at the position.. I get that Arians has one goal on offense and that's to score points...arians seems like a smart guy....smart guys do smart things and use the best players they have to reach the goal of scoring points.  What I do not see is Arians saying, "I have never really used the tight end position for production and I won't start now cause I have a guy with immense talent... Won't do it.. Can't do it..." 

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1 hour ago, Farfromhome said:

I get that Arians hasnt used the tight end position for big production in his past...I get that he hasnt had a ton of talent at the position.. I get that Arians has one goal on offense and that's to score points...arians seems like a smart guy....smart guys do smart things and use the best players they have to reach the goal of scoring points.  What I do not see is Arians saying, "I have never really used the tight end position for production and I won't start now cause I have a guy with immense talent... Won't do it.. Can't do it..." 

This notion that Arians never had a TE worth anything as a pass-catcher needs to be debunked, starting now.

Jermaine Gresham was a 21-overall pick (i.e., two picks behind Howard in the first round) and proceeded to become one of the best receivers on the Cincinnati Bengals for years - he went to multiple Pro Bowls, set the franchise record for rookie production, and by his third year nearly led the entire team in both total yards and touchdowns scored.  

He came to the Arians Cardinals - and promptly became an afterthought.

Trusting Arians to feature Howard just because Howard is a great player is a huge leap of faith - remember, just because you want an NFL coach to do something, or think that it makes complete sense for an NFL coach to do something, doesn’t mean that coach will actually do what you’re hoping.

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Well... That year he nearly led the team in total yards and tds Mr Gresham had 737 yards and 5 tds.... Aj green had 1350 and 11 tds.... It's close so I get what your saying... 

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42 minutes ago, Farfromhome said:

Well... That year he nearly led the team in total yards and tds Mr Gresham had 737 yards and 5 tds.... Aj green had 1350 and 11 tds.... It's close so I get what your saying... 

He was second in both categories on the entire team.

I’m not totally sure, but it seems like you’re missing the point of my post.

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I'm not really trying to push the conversation in either direction....I would be pleased with howard as my starting tight end in most leagues... Dude has tremendous ability... Numbers can always be found to push a conversation in both directions... My point is Arians seems smart... Howard is good... Will he be gronk? Nope.... But 900 yards and 8 tds seems very reasonable to me...i know 5th round has been tossed around in this thread... Pass on that for sure... 6th?....getting closer.... If i can get him 7th that feels okay... I'm thinking in that value area I'll end up with Evan engram more than Howard.... Tight end feels deeper this year then most.. 

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26 minutes ago, Farfromhome said:

I'm not really trying to push the conversation in either direction....I would be pleased with howard as my starting tight end in most leagues... Dude has tremendous ability... Numbers can always be found to push a conversation in both directions... My point is Arians seems smart... Howard is good... Will he be gronk? Nope.... But 900 yards and 8 tds seems very reasonable to me...i know 5th round has been tossed around in this thread... Pass on that for sure... 6th?....getting closer.... If i can get him 7th that feels okay... I'm thinking in that value area I'll end up with Evan engram more than Howard.... Tight end feels deeper this year then most.. 

I hear you - and if he fell I would take him, too.  Currently a fifth-round pick. Too high.

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10 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Arians system obviously does have plays designed to involve the TE. Maybe Arians didn’t call those plays a ton, but Leftwich might. 

You’ve said you love OJ Howard the player multiple times, yet you can’t seem to understand why Arians/Leftwich might love him too? I don’t get that. Arians may simply use Howard in a non-traditional TE role to make use of his ability and mismatch potential. He’s not going to look at Howard, consider his tremendous upside, and say “darn, too bad we can’t throw it to him because he’s a TE.” A smart coach will make adjustments necessary  to best utilize his most talented players. Doing so doesn’t mean changing his entire philosophy and system, it’s simply making an intelligent adjustment.

Arians and Leftwich can love the player all they want and give some nice offseason quotes about him, but a ten-year track record is a pretty large sample size.  Will they get the ball to Howard occasionally?  Sure.  But for fantasy football you want a TE who is going to be a primary focus of the offense.  Find a mid-round or late-round gem who can approach 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns.  Examples would be Ertz in 2017 and Kittle in 2018.  In this system, with this head coach, I do not believe Howard is going to do that.

Will Howard be a h*ll of an asset in real life and help Tampa win a lot of games?  Yes he will.  But that does not matter except for leagues that give points for blocking.

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44 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Arians and Leftwich can love the player all they want and give some nice offseason quotes about him, but a ten-year track record is a pretty large sample size.  Will they get the ball to Howard occasionally?  Sure.  But for fantasy football you want a TE who is going to be a primary focus of the offense.  Find a mid-round or late-round gem who can approach 1000 yards and double digit touchdowns.  Examples would be Ertz in 2017 and Kittle in 2018.  In this system, with this head coach, I do not believe Howard is going to do that.

Will Howard be a h*ll of an asset in real life and help Tampa win a lot of games?  Yes he will.  But that does not matter except for leagues that give points for blocking.

Good luck with that. 

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8 hours ago, BMcP said:

I hear you - and if he fell I would take him, too.  Currently a fifth-round pick. Too high.

agreed. if we drafted today, i'd sooner hope for godwin or arob in round 5 (both have oj howard's ballpark adp).

8 hours ago, Farfromhome said:

But 900 yards and 8 tds seems very reasonable to me...i know 5th round has been tossed around in this thread... Pass on that for sure... 6th?....getting closer.... If i can get him 7th that feels okay... I'm thinking in that value area I'll end up with Evan engram more than Howard.... Tight end feels deeper this year then most.. 

at this point (today), if he's there in the 6th you take him. mfantasyleague has oj howard at pick 55 (there's is a composite of PPR, half-PPR, and standard), and ffcalculator has OJH same ADP (5.09) in half-PPR.

not concerned about the production. i believe oj howard is super-talented, and have no fear of his use in the offense. last season, the way he manhandled solid defensive players was awesome (jabrill peppers cleveland, kuechly in the carolina game, landon collins giants). outside of a double-team, he's simply a mismatch. the biggest threat on the field for oj howard is jameis winston.

14 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

 

Arians system obviously does have plays designed to involve the TE. Maybe Arians didn’t call those plays a ton, but Leftwich might. 

You’ve said you love OJ Howard the player multiple times, yet you can’t seem to understand why Arians/Leftwich might love him too? I don’t get that. Arians may simply use Howard in a non-traditional TE role to make use of his ability and mismatch potential. He’s not going to look at Howard, consider his tremendous upside, and say “darn, too bad we can’t throw it to him because he’s a TE.” A smart coach will make adjustments necessary  to best utilize his most talented players. Doing so doesn’t mean changing his entire philosophy and system, it’s simply making an intelligent adjustment.

where do you see oj howard as a "value" pick in the draft? where would you draft him?

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4 hours ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Good luck with that. 

I have succeeded to find a breakout TE about 60% of the time in the last decade of playing fantasy football.  Part of the reason my predictions have worked out is that I have avoided situations like Howard under Arians, Tampa Bay Bucaneers 2019.

2018 Kittle

2017 Ertz

2016 Rudolph

2015 Reed

2014 Kelce

2013 Orange Julius

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1 hour ago, Sack Exchange said:

where do you see oj howard as a "value" pick in the draft? where would you draft him?

It seems very unlikely to me that OJ Howard will be a value pick here in 2019.  More like universally overdrafted.

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2012 was Rudolph who did not get many yards but he did score 9TDs--quite useful in standard.  

2011 was a fella named Rob Gronkowski who turned out to be pretty good.

None were picked until about the 10th round or later.  So it can be done.

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3 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I have succeeded to find a breakout TE about 60% of the time in the last decade of playing fantasy football.  Part of the reason my predictions have worked out is that I have avoided situations like Howard under Arians, Tampa Bay Bucaneers 2019.

2018 Kittle

2017 Ertz

2016 Rudolph

2015 Reed

2014 Kelce

2013 Orange Julius

 

Is 60% good?

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20 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Is 60% good?

 

I'd say that's pretty good when your trying to pick tight end sleepers. Better than me atleast. I drafted sorry a** trey burton last year. Do you get good tight ends every year? If ya do what's your secret?

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I'd say that's pretty good when your trying to pick tight end sleepers. Better than me atleast. I drafted sorry a** trey burton last year. Do you get good tight ends every year? If ya do what's your secret?

No secret really, you just have to analyze the TE situations outside the top 8 or so.  Talented guys whose situation has improved in some way.  I have certainly whiffed on some TEs, too.  Dwayne Allen in his last year on the Colts, Fleener in his first year with the Saints, Julius Thomas in any season without Peyton Manning were some of my legendary misses.  And avoid the Delanie Walkers, Jason Wittens, and Charles Clays of the world like the plague.

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