Flyman75

Evan Engram 2019 Outlook

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Can it get worse?  Jones is a rookie QB.  A Nathan Peterman-esque face plant is definitely possible.  But I got a good feeling about this kid.

 

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4 hours ago, BigBenTheSteelerMan said:

Does dj lower engrams floor? Even a bit?

 

We just saw his floor last week. He is by far their best receiver and now that he has a QB who can buy more than half a second in the pocket, his floor certainly goes up.

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Playing devil's advocate....But what if Daniel Jones turns out to be Josh Rosen. 

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3 hours ago, larfboy said:

Playing devil's advocate....But what if Daniel Jones turns out to be Josh Rosen. 

This is definitely not impossible. At the very least for most QBs their first season is not their best, and the first game of their first season can be below par. Even though his pre-season performance looked good, he might well struggle a bit. Also, Tampa may not be the easiest D to start against.

Edited by Boudewijn
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2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

This is definitely not impossible. At the very least for most QBs their first season is not their best, and the first game of their first season can be below par. Even though his pre-season performance looked good, he might well struggle a bit.

Have anything to back that up? I tend to think differently. Most QB's have their best season in their first season because the film isn't out there on them and their tendencies. For the vast majority of QB's it doesn't get any better than their 1st season.

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14 minutes ago, devaster said:

Have anything to back that up? I tend to think differently. Most QB's have their best season in their first season because the film isn't out there on them and their tendencies. For the vast majority of QB's it doesn't get any better than their 1st season.

 

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

Roethlisberger

Rodgers

Brees

Cousins

Russell Wilson

Brady

Luck

Looked them all up and none of them had their best years as rookies (or even first year as a starter). Some had good years, but definitely not their best years.  It's well documented that QBs take time to learn how to read defenses. 

The rookie QBs that do well are  the running QBs. Cam/RG3. I could see Lamar Jackson having his best year this year. But those are anomalies. 

Mahomes is a freak and may also be an exception but he didn't play as a rookie. He had a year of learning under Reid before he was trusted to take over. And he's actually on pace for a better year this year. 

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7 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

Matt Ryan

Phillip Rivers

Roethlisberger

Rodgers

Brees

Cousins

Russell Wilson

Brady

Luck

Looked them all up and none of them had their best years as rookies (or even first year as a starter). Some had good years, but definitely not their best years.  It's well documented that QBs take time to learn how to read defenses. 

The rookie QBs that do well are  the running QBs. Cam/RG3. I could see Lamar Jackson having his best year this year. But those are anomalies. 

Correct. I've done the analysis for i think the top-200 QBs from 2000-2018, and this is the general pattern. My data doesn't exactly fit the way he put the question, but I'll see if I can reorganize it a bit.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Have anything to back that up? I tend to think differently. Most QB's have their best season in their first season because the film isn't out there on them and their tendencies. For the vast majority of QB's it doesn't get any better than their 1st season.

I guess Rosen’s first year was his best year.

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It’s obviously bs that QBs have their best year in their first year. The only offensive position where this might be true is RB. But QBs develop into their position more and more as the experience grows. No recent fantasy relevant QB has their best year in year 1 as wideopen21 already said

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9 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Correct. I've done the analysis for i think the top-200 QBs from 2000-2018, and this is the general pattern. My data doesn't exactly fit the way he put the question, but I'll see if I can reorganize it a bit.

The QB's that start for a long time that is true about, but there are so many QB's that come into the NFL and only have one real good season in their career if they get the chance to start. One year wonders.

RG3, Bridgewater, Derek Anderson, Tebow., Kaepernick, Cam (his rookie season was probably his best despite the MVP season), etc.

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9 hours ago, larfboy said:

I guess Rosen’s first year was his best year.

That probably was the best we will see of Rosen.

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Just now, devaster said:

That probably was the best we will see of Rosen.

 

When he's not on a historically bad team, we'll be able to make a better judgment of him. 

 

And to think that morons were criticizing the Giants for taking Barkley at #2 instead of Rosen or Darnold. LOL.

 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

When he's not on a historically bad team, we'll be able to make a better judgment of him.

 

Looks like we won't get to see that any time soon.

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To bring it back to Engram, assuming Daniel Jones will be better for him is setting yourself up for disappointment. Add Shepard and Tate joining the party soon..don’t be surprised Engrams value dips. Just saying

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4 hours ago, larfboy said:

To bring it back to Engram, assuming Daniel Jones will be better for him is setting yourself up for disappointment. Add Shepard and Tate joining the party soon..don’t be surprised Engrams value dips. Just saying

 

Daniel Jones will be better...  Shepard & Tate are welcome additions to this offense who are devoid of play makers outside of Barkely / E.E . Defenses have been keying in on Evan Engram too much. This is a net positive for the whole team, giving easier looks to everyone. Expect Engram's value and production to go up. Especially in the touchdown department. He is by far their best pass catcher and will get his regardless . Just saying ...

Edited by RunCMC
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12 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Daniel Jones will be better...  Shepard & Tate are welcome additions to this offense who are devoid of play makers outside of Barkely / E.E . Defenses have been keying in on Evan Engram too much. This is a net positive for the whole team. Expect Engram's value and production to go up. Especially in the touchdown department. He is by far their best pass catcher and will get his regardless . Just saying ...

again...i'm not saying Daniel Jones isn't capable of being better than Eli. but it's crazy to expect a rookie QB running a subpar offense and expect him to be an instant improvement over a seasoned vet. What have you seen Daniel Jones do to lead you to believe he will be a 100% hit? The preseason?  Engram's TD opportunities may improve but that is mainly due to the fact of the return of Tate and Shepard. i wouldn't expect 10+ targets most people are expecting. Tate is a PPR machine and Shepard is their WR1

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Just traded Breida for Evan.  Thrilled to have Engram on my team!  I love the fact that the Giants made the switch at QB.  Seems to me in general rookie QB's love their TE's.  Getting ready to make the leap into elite status!

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per Rotopat:

"the Bucs have been getting thrashed up the seam. George Kittle had two Week 1 touchdowns called back, and Bruce Arians’ defense straight up didn’t cover Greg Olsen in Week 2"

giddy.jpg.6d40879168d584e3c5610c59a6d5b17f.jpg

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On 9/19/2019 at 3:09 PM, larfboy said:

again...i'm not saying Daniel Jones isn't capable of being better than Eli. but it's crazy to expect a rookie QB running a subpar offense and expect him to be an instant improvement over a seasoned vet. What have you seen Daniel Jones do to lead you to believe he will be a 100% hit? The preseason?  Engram's TD opportunities may improve but that is mainly due to the fact of the return of Tate and Shepard. i wouldn't expect 10+ targets most people are expecting. Tate is a PPR machine and Shepard is their WR1

Tate was a ppr machine in Detroit when matt Stafford was entering his prime in a pass first offense. He was not a ppr machine last year for the eagles or the lions. Shep is the wr1, but he’s not an elite talent that will dominate targets. To expect that Engram will get 10 targets a game is far fetched; that’s 160 targets. Nobody thinks that’ll happen. But can he get 7 targets a game, a few with 4 and a few with 10 target games with shep Tate Saquon in the lineup? I feel like that’s reasonable. And 5-7 tds is a reasonable expectation too. 

 

Im a giants fan and huge Eli fan. He knows more than Jones, he’s seen it all. He’s a master of the playbook and has a good rappprt and timing with Saquon Engram and shep. Yet he still couldn’t get it done.  His arm was a noodle, he was jumpy in the pocket, and the biggest detriment was he couldn’t extend a play. If he didn’t have a clean pocket or couldn’t step up, he was toast. Jones should be able to extend plays. He’ll scramble when needed. He makes up for a shoddy oline with his feet. It may offset Eli’s knowledge and savvy. And Engram should benefit from broken plays as a middle of the field, intermediate distance receiver that burns Lbs all day with his speed. 

I feel like the giants are gonna throw 30 times a game, the league average attempts per game so far is 35 and last year it was 34.  maybe they pass it more if they get behind a lot (spoiler alert: that will happen). That’s 500 attempts if we round up. At 7 (112) targets a game for Engram, that’s 22% target share. Feels reasonable especially considering objs gone. Shep and Tate can still get their 8-9 targets a game on average and still leave plenty for Saquon and the other receivers. 

 

Thats a low/safe prediction too. 

Edited by WestCoastMets
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1 hour ago, WestCoastMets said:

 He makes up for a shoddy oline with his feet.

 

Giants oline this year has actually been decent, not the usual turn style.

The defense on the hand giving up big play after big play, oy vey.

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On 9/21/2019 at 1:13 AM, pdog109 said:

The defense on the hand giving up big play after big play, oy vey.

 

lotta passing to make up for that... and now with Barkley possibly out for some time, Engram is going to get a ton of usage. 

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Since our league gives bonus for long TDS, today was a good day as a MaHomes and Engram owner. I am now 3-0. 

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7 hours ago, jonasdash said:

 

lotta passing to make up for that... and now with Barkley possibly out for some time, Engram is going to get a ton of usage. 

Sooo much volume incoming :)

I am a happy man

 

https://www.12up.com/posts/video-giants-te-evan-engram-makes-unreal-leaping-one-handed-catch-on-daniel-jones-pass-01dndabywxet
 

Edited by TheBoondocks

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Loving the production, but he seems to disappear for long periods every game.

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