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Phillip Lindsay 2019 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, mongidig said:

Lindsay is on the cover of Madden.

Madden-2020.jpg

Edited by Boudewijn

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For the life of me, I can't figure out how Lindsay is lasting until round 4. He was a RB1 in standard and 0.5 formats in his first NFL season, posting over 1,000 yards and a YPC of 5.4. Freeman should remain a threat to vulture scoring opportunities, but even with Freeman stealing scoring chances in 2018, Lindsay still mustered 10 total TDs.

 

He's a low-end RB1 who is being drafted as a low-end RB2 for some reason and I'm entirely ready to take advantage of that fact. I'm targeting Lindsay in all drafts this year. 

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12 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

For the life of me, I can't figure out how Lindsay is lasting until round 4. He was a RB1 in standard and 0.5 formats in his first NFL season, posting over 1,000 yards and a YPC of 5.4. Freeman should remain a threat to vulture scoring opportunities, but even with Freeman stealing scoring chances in 2018, Lindsay still mustered 10 total TDs.

 

He's a low-end RB1 who is being drafted as a low-end RB2 for some reason and I'm entirely ready to take advantage of that fact. I'm targeting Lindsay in all drafts this year. 

Yeah im not really high on Lindsay, but I'm not sure what it is. I think it's the RBBC in a bad offense, and that a lot of production seemed to come from one big play that has me hesitant to grab him earlier than the 4th

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Yeah im not really high on Lindsay, but I'm not sure what it is. I think it's the RBBC in a bad offense, and that a lot of production seemed to come from one big play that has me hesitant to grab him earlier than the 4th

Ahh the old...”if u take out the big plays”.... argument.     Good luck with that.   Is there a particular reason you think Denver will be bad running the ball?   They were atrocious last season and still had one of the best running games in the league.  

Edited by Impreza178
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1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Yeah im not really high on Lindsay, but I'm not sure what it is. I think it's the RBBC in a bad offense, and that a lot of production seemed to come from one big play that has me hesitant to grab him earlier than the 4th

When looking at the RBs going in the same range as Lindsay, you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy who isn't in some sort of timeshare situation. You don't generally land bellcows in round 4. That said, while I expect Freeman to see maybe 8-10 touches a game, I believe that Lindsay has earned the right to be the true lead in the Denver backfield and I actually expect him to easily eclipse his 192 carries from 2018.

If his YPC can even come close to what he posted last season (5.4), he should be a great value at that price and a more than sufficient fantasy starter. 

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5 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

When looking at the RBs going in the same range as Lindsay, you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy who isn't in some sort of timeshare situation. You don't generally land bellcows in round 4. That said, while I expect Freeman to see maybe 8-10 touches a game, I believe that Lindsay has earned the right to be the true lead in the Denver backfield and I actually expect him to easily eclipse his 192 carries from 2018.

If his YPC can even come close to what he posted last season (5.4), he should be a great value at that price and a more than sufficient fantasy starter. 

Agree,  and it’s fair to expect his ypc to come down with additional carries.    Expecting more involvement in the passing game as well.  He had very little last season.    How much is TBD but that wrist isn’t helping.    

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

Ahh the old...”if u take out the big plays”.... argument.     Good luck with that.   Is there a particular reason you think Denver will be bad running the ball?   They were atrocious last season and still had one of the best running games in the league.  

Please tell me where I said "take out his big plays." Don't waste your time because I didn't say that. Lindsay has been getting maximum production on minimal opportunities. Around the 4th round, I can get guys like A. Jones, K. Johnson, or Jacobs who are slated to get the majority of the work in better or equal offenses. I'd rather one of them. 

 

And I never said they'd be bad rushing the ball. I said their offense as a whole is bad, which it is. Denver can run the ball effectively, but they don't do it a lot. 

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2 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

When looking at the RBs going in the same range as Lindsay, you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy who isn't in some sort of timeshare situation. You don't generally land bellcows in round 4. That said, while I expect Freeman to see maybe 8-10 touches a game, I believe that Lindsay has earned the right to be the true lead in the Denver backfield and I actually expect him to easily eclipse his 192 carries from 2018.

If his YPC can even come close to what he posted last season (5.4), he should be a great value at that price and a more than sufficient fantasy starter. 

Agreed. I just look at his peers and guys around him and there's others I'd rather have in the 3rd or 4th. If the pickings are slim in those rounds, I'd be fine taking him. Ideally I'd like to land him in the 5th 

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30 minutes ago, smetana34 said:

Please tell me where I said "take out his big plays." Don't waste your time because I didn't say that. Lindsay has been getting maximum production on minimal opportunities. Around the 4th round, I can get guys like A. Jones, K. Johnson, or Jacobs who are slated to get the majority of the work in better or equal offenses. I'd rather one of them. 

Yeah, he's not in my Jones, Jacobs and all tier, but not far behind.

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1 hour ago, smetana34 said:

Please tell me where I said "take out his big plays." Don't waste your time because I didn't say that. Lindsay has been getting maximum production on minimal opportunities. Around the 4th round, I can get guys like A. Jones, K. Johnson, or Jacobs who are slated to get the majority of the work in better or equal offenses. I'd rather one of them. 

 

And I never said they'd be bad rushing the ball. I said their offense as a whole is bad, which it is. Denver can run the ball effectively, but they don't do it a lot. 

Maybe early last season, but he was the bellcow for Denver the entire season.

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Maybe early last season, but he was the bellcow for Denver the entire season.

The funny thing is that Lindsay only eclipsed 15 carries THREE times in 2018. And he still managed to finish as an RB1 in most formats. I feel like it's difficult to make a case against his usage increasing in 2019. Sleep on this guy at your own risk. 

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I think the case against Freeman is a talented back who was dinged up last year and still got 130 carries so it's reasonable he may see more. How much more I have no idea but it's not a hard case to make. 

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On 7/8/2019 at 5:08 PM, SenatorSpaceman said:

The funny thing is that Lindsay only eclipsed 15 carries THREE times in 2018. And he still managed to finish as an RB1 in most formats. I feel like it's difficult to make a case against his usage increasing in 2019. Sleep on this guy at your own risk. 

This strikes me as one of those scenarios we might be overanalyzing; the offseason news is affecting the way we think about it too strongly. Just remember how good Lindsay looked, last year was no fluke.

So say Freeman’s actually good too and this is more of a split. To me, if any o-line has a chance to pull an Indy, this is it. (Or a Rams from 2017). We weren’t expecting much from either of those o-lines in the offseason; if anything, we expected them to suck the way the Colts had for what seemed like a decade. Instead they became elite. I think the Broncos have that capability.

Ja’Wuan James can be their Whitworth level signing. Dalton Risner was my favorite interior lineman in the draft. Most importantly, they added Muhchak - a coaching change is imperative for a leap in improvement - he’s one of the best. They’ve also got a new head coach and enough talent on defense to keep them in a running script.

As you said Lindsay only eclipsed 15 carries 3 times last year, and I definitely think he can keep up his touch count. I also think he might be more successful with his touches this year, if the Broncos O-Line show the improvement they could.

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Can't wait for tonight when whoever starts the game will see his ADP rise 20 spots and the other guy will fall 20. 

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On 7/8/2019 at 6:08 PM, SenatorSpaceman said:

The funny thing is that Lindsay only eclipsed 15 carries THREE times in 2018. And he still managed to finish as an RB1 in most formats. I feel like it's difficult to make a case against his usage increasing in 2019. Sleep on this guy at your own risk. 

 

It's also funny that the "RBBC" label seems to be driving Lindsay's draft price down, yet when you think about it, he's already proven that he is a fantasy RB1 without having to get bellcow amounts of touches.  

It's as if people are taking his numbers from last year, assuming that they came in a bellcow role, and projecting them to go down as this turns into a RBBC.  Meanwhile it always was, and the numbers he put up last year are very likely to be similar to what he puts up this year.

Not to mention this whole share of carries can easily go the other way.  People are expecting Freeman to get more touches 'just because', but if the CS gets smart and sees the efficiency of Lindsay, he could end up with more touches than last year.

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Posted (edited)

This guy is the reason that going forward, if I see an unexpected FA RB get a full workload at the beginning of the season, I'm breaking theFAAB bank

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins

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8 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I wonder if he can hold off Freeman for one more season.  I like the guy, but competition is looming

 

Lindsay is a tricky player to evaluate. Freeman is definitely a factor, but Lindsay looked way more explosive than Freeman last year. 5.4YPC on almost 200 carries is legit. 10 TDs were also impressive since he wasn't really a goal line back. 

With all that said, Lindsay definitely benefited from being used in more spread formations while Freeman's carries tended to be facing stacked boxes. 

An injury to either would allow the one left standing to explode. But with both healthy it makes for a tricky situation. 

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1 hour ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I wonder if he can hold off Freeman for one more season.  I like the guy, but competition is looming

Fun fact, if Lindsay plays 50% of the snaps, it would be an INCREASED workload from last year. He only played 42% of offensive snaps as a rookie. 

 

If it's an even split between Lindsay and Freeman, that hurts Booker, it puts Lindsay in the same role as he had last year.

 

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Posted (edited)

This is an interesting discussion/info. I’ve been pretty much out on Lindsay, but I may have to watch more closely especially if his ADP falls more due to timeshare talk. 

Could be a great grab in the mid rounds, especially if you start your draft only drafting 1 RB early (or 0 RB). 

Edited by gufomel

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And just like that I may have to dial back a little again. 

 

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24 minutes ago, gufomel said:

And just like that I may have to dial back a little again. 

 

Not a good thing for Lindsay, but again, Riddick is going to compete for the Booker role. I haven't heard anything good about Booker lately. Maybe he gets buried or even let go. 

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29 minutes ago, gufomel said:

And just like that I may have to dial back a little again. 

 

 

I think this is just a depth move in case Lindsay goes down.  

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Not a good thing for Lindsay, but again, Riddick is going to compete for the Booker role. I haven't heard anything good about Booker lately. Maybe he gets buried or even let go. 

Yeah, I definitely won't be drafting Lindsay now at his current draft position though it will likely fall in PPR due to Riddick's signing.  I think the best value pick of the Denver rb's will end up being Freeman.

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