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Phillip Lindsay 2019 Outlook

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32 minutes ago, Homerj24 said:

 

If he ends up making the roster as an RB4 behind the likes of Riddick or Booker & either those guys gets hurt (this happens in football) he's a name to stash away for those in dynasty or deeper leagues. Clearly, he's nowhere near a player you want to draft right now, but he at least posses some decent skill.

I don't think we've seen nearly enough to really know, but fair points on dynasty leagues etc

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On 8/2/2019 at 8:35 AM, Bronco Billy said:

 

I’m curious if anyone has even considered moving Lindsay and Freeman down a bit because of Riddick’s signing?  I see this as a possible threat to desperate Booker owners in really deep leagues who are still holding out hope that he’ll return some kind of value for the draft capital they invested in him. 

 

I'd move both down  because both of them with share carries and eat into each other's value. Lindsay is DND unless he falls FAR (unlikely) and freeman is DND period after last year

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I think Lindsay's arrow is pointing down. Freeman's gonna get more carries this season and I do think Riddick will earn some snaps as well. 

 

JMHO...

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Posted (edited)

I was researching running backs moving from man to zone blocking.   Freeman is from a zone blocking scheme. I am not sure of Lindsay's college system.  What I found interesting for Lindsay is the comparison between him and Warrick Dunn. Similar build and running style. Warrick Dunn is a running back that actually did worse in a zone blocking scheme.  Here is a chart of percentage of runs and yards gained/lost for him between the two schemes. In man blocking, his yards per run were evenly distributed, while in zone blocking, his runs were concentrated around the 1-3 yards gains. "The graph basically says "In 2004, Dunn was far more likely to get you positive yardage, but less likely to get you GOOD positive yardage"."  Distribution of gains 5+ were same in both, so it broke down his average.  Lindsay was also below average in yards after contact last season, while Freeman was above average. 

 

HookDunn.gif

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2005/zone-blocking-vs-man-blocking

Edited by nine9s
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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, nine9s said:

I was researching running backs moving from man to zone blocking.   Freeman is from a zone blocking scheme. I am not sure of Lindsay's college system.  What I found interesting for Lindsay is the comparison between him and Warrick Dunn. Similar build and running style. Warrick Dunn is a running back that actually did worse in a zone blocking scheme.  Here is a chart of percentage of runs and yards gained/lost for him between the two schemes. In man blocking, his yards per run were evenly distributed, while in zone blocking, his runs were concentrated around the 1-3 yards gains. "The graph basically says "In 2004, Dunn was far more likely to get you positive yardage, but less likely to get you GOOD positive yardage"."  Distribution of gains 5+ were same in both, so it broke down his average.  Lindsay was also below average in yards after contact last season, while Freeman was above average. 

 

HookDunn.gif

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2005/zone-blocking-vs-man-blocking

Warrick is a solid comp for Lindsay-  nice work there.   Freeman makes a great Mike Alstott.   

The zone vs man stat is interesting- but minimal relevance to Lindsay.    Different era, different offense,  different set of eyes and brain reading running lanes.  

Edited by Impreza178

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9 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

The zone vs man stat is interesting- but minimal relevance to Lindsay.    Different era, different offense,  different set of eyes and brain reading running lanes.  

I think there are plenty of College RBs who have trouble adjusting to the NFL exactly for this reason (the increased receiving/pass-blocking demands are a factor too of course). If in College all you did was zone and now suddenly you have to get used to gap, that takes much more football understanding.

From a quick check of Lindsay's College and NFL highlights I see definitely Gap in both; if Freeman was a zone guy in College, that is a factor. It will be really interesting to see if Scangarello (OC) and Munciak (Line coach) will implement more of a zone system; if so, that may give Freeman a more easy path to fantasy relevancy. 

Having said all that:

 

This looks to be a really interesting battle between Lindsay and Freeman. If the O-Line can create this kind of opportunities for the RBs, you could line up my old granny in a wheelchair and get 100-yard games (and she's been dead for several years). 

 

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Feels like this is going to be a full-blown timeshare, no matter how you chop it up. 

 

Neither back is really a pass catcher, although both are capable I suppose...

 

But my guess, it’s going to be a crappy ride all year unless one of them gets injured.

 

With that being said, I’m not touching either of them unless they fall farrrrrrr down the ladder to me. 

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Just now, CORTEz said:

Neither back is really a pass catcher, although both are capable I suppose...

I think "capable" is a fair assessment for Lindsay; last season he caught 35 passes for 241 yards, which puts him in  group with say LeSean McCoy/Mike Davis/Tevin Coleman/Kerryon Johnson. That's not bad. 

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3 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I think "capable" is a fair assessment for Lindsay; last season he caught 35 passes for 241 yards, which puts him in  group with say LeSean McCoy/Mike Davis/Tevin Coleman/Kerryon Johnson. That's not bad. 

I agree, 35/241 isn’t bad...

ill just be curious to see how they spread those targets if they’re playing Freeman and Lindsay I’m more of a 50/50 timeshare.

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I'm blown away.  Lindsay was a RIDICULOUS stud last year.

5.4ypc on almost 200 carries.

That's territory King Barry would be red-faced over.

Lindsay has "it".  I'm honestly just amazed he's not going MUCH earlier in the draft.

Dude had 1,000 plus yards and 10TD's as a UDFA rookie for a crappy team.

How is he not in the top 10RB discussion?  Because of Royce Freeman????

 

Maybe I'll sink my ship with him.

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Posted (edited)

As an Phillip Lindsay fan (owned him in both of my leagues last year), I can honestly say that I will be staying away from him this year.

He is a great runner, quick, powerful, has pass-catching ability....but with that being said...I think Royce Freeman is going to absolutely hamper his "per-week" production.

It wouldn't suprise me to see Lindsay break off a few nice games of 15-85-1 or something close to that...but in my mind, Royce Freeman is going to be more of a headache than people think. 

Lindsay won't be a 18+ carries guy. He only had 4 games in which he received 15 carries or more.

What we'll likely see happen is a 55/45 or 60/40 split in carries between Lindsay and Freeman. I still expect Lindsay to receive about 2-4 targets a game, but although the sample size was small, Freeman showed out in his last regular season game, catching 8 of his 10 targets for 43 yards...which to me, hints, at least, that the Broncos might throw a couple targets Freeman's way as well.

Oh yeah... and they still have that bum Booker on the team as well, who will likely steal 2-3 carries a game and 2-3 targets a game...

In the end, I still believe that Lindsay will be valuable, but he's not Top-60 valuable..

 

My prediction for his EOY Stats:

170 carries, 800 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns // 30 catches, 250 yards, 1 touchdown

 

Not as massive dropoff from a yardage standpoint, but I believe we might be in for a rough regression in the TD department with Freeman having a more prominent role, and DEN now having a more reliable QB in Joe Flacco..to put that in context....

 

These are Denver's Top-4 WR Touchdown Numbers last season

4 TD - E. Sanders

4 TD - C. Sutton

2 TD - D. Hamilton

1 TD - T. Patrick

 

10 total TDs from their Top-4 receivers...You can almost bet your life-savings that number will be increasing this season. To put that into further context...Mike Williams (SD) had 11 TDs...by himself.

I believe Linday should be going somewhere around ADP 80, along with Royce Freeman...and if you're planning on spending a Top-60 pick on him, it's very likely you'll be disappointed by seasons' end.

 

Quote me when I say you'll be seeing a lot of these this season:

- "Omg...why is Freeman in there and not Lindsay..."

- "Dammit, they're leaning on Freeman this drive, where is Lindsay?"

- "Why isn't Lindsay in? Did he get injured?"

- "Why do they have that bum Booker in there? Wasting Lindsay and Freeman's potential"

- "UGH, Freeman just vultured another TD from Lindsay after Lindsay did most of the work"

Edited by CORTEz
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Something I think both Lindsay and Freeman have going for them is I expect the Denver OL to be vastly improved this year. They could become one of the best in the league like the Colts did last year (and to a lesser degree Rams two years ago), that’s in their range of outcomes. They brought in one of the league’s best offensive line coaches (Munchak), they drafted my favorite interior lineman (Risner), and Jawuan James was one of the best tackles on the market. Bringing in Scangarello from San Fran to run the Shanahan offense is never a bad thing for RBs, and their defense should be greatly improved under Fangio as well, keeping the running scripts viable. I think both Freeman and Lindsay could have big value a la Kamara and Ingram, and if one of them goes down the other could be a league winner.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Fierylady said:

Something I think both Lindsay and Freeman have going for them is I expect the Denver OL to be vastly improved this year. They could become one of the best in the league like the Colts did last year (and to a lesser degree Rams two years ago), that’s in their range of outcomes. They brought in one of the league’s best offensive line coaches (Munchak), they drafted my favorite interior lineman (Risner), and Jawuan James was one of the best tackles on the market. Bringing in Scangarello from San Fran to run the Shanahan offense is never a bad thing for RBs, and their defense should be greatly improved under Fangio as well, keeping the running scripts viable. I think both Freeman and Lindsay could have big value a la Kamara and Ingram, and if one of them goes down the other could be a league winner.

 

     I hate that comp lol.   Such a rare feat what they did- 2 top 5 backs in one season.   Let’s not forget how good the Denver running game was last season either-  they were ranked in the top 3 before DT was traded and Sanders went down.   Warrick Dunn/Alstott I could get behind.    Shifty, poppy undersized stud with an athletically underrated pounder to do the dirty work.  

    New scheme, new coach, and many new players will be no small feat to repeat the success of the 2018 ground game 

     

Edited by Impreza178

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

     I hate that comp lol.   Such a rare feat what they did- 2 top 5 backs in one season.   Let’s not forget how good the Denver running game was last season either-  they were ranked in the top 3 before DT was traded and Sanders went down.   Warrick Dunn/Alstott I could get behind.    Shifty, poppy undersized stud with an athletically underrated pounder to do the dirty work.  

    New scheme, new coach, and many new players will be no small feat to repeat the success of the 2018 ground game 

     

 

Comping Royce to Alstott is an abomination. 

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1 minute ago, JHM_13 said:

 

Comping Royce to Alstott is an abomination. 

 

You’ll come around 👀 

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

You’ll come around 👀 

 

I like Royce this year...he's not Alstott. That's reserved for AJ Dillon lol

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Just now, JHM_13 said:

 

I like Royce this year...he's not Alstott. That's reserved for AJ Dillon lol

 

Haha- fair enough.    CJA more your cup of tea?   J Stew? 

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I also think Lindsay is going to beast out this year. 

He is just SO much more explosive than Freeman. The big runs Freeman gets are just great blocking up front, while Lindsay makes his own crafty holes. He is by far the more electric player, and just as powerful. 

I think the staff just don't to admit they drafted poorly with Freeman because of all the other bad drafting they've been doing lately, so they are forcing things. 

It could go either way, but if the Broncos want to win, they are going to give more to Lindsay.

Then again, I said the same thing about Drake last year lol...

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12 minutes ago, FooserX said:

I also think Lindsay is going to beast out this year. 

He is just SO much more explosive than Freeman. The big runs Freeman gets are just great blocking up front, while Lindsay makes his own crafty holes. He is by far the more electric player, and just as powerful. 

I think the staff just don't to admit they drafted poorly with Freeman because of all the other bad drafting they've been doing lately, so they are forcing things. 

It could go either way, but if the Broncos want to win, they are going to give more to Lindsay.

Then again, I said the same thing about Drake last year lol...

 

Agree-  Lindsay was a huge miss on draft day for 32 teams.   Then almost all of them tried to sign him UDFA.  Freeman is a typical power back with good straight line speed but doesn’t create without blocking like Lindsay can.  Prob a pick they would like to have back.  

PL had to win the job and scrape out 1000 yards while proving himself. If he takes the same underdog mindset into this season,  1000 yards will be no problem in this offense.   Receiving game action would be an additional bonus and give him low end rb1 ceiling.   He finished as rb12 (.5) in 2018 despite all these challenges.    

 

Current Projections:  

Lindsay- Rb2- startable weekly

freeman- GL and gameflow dependent flex.  Great upside as a cuff.   

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

     I hate that comp lol.   Such a rare feat what they did- 2 top 5 backs in one season.   Let’s not forget how good the Denver running game was last season either-  they were ranked in the top 3 before DT was traded and Sanders went down.   Warrick Dunn/Alstott I could get behind.    Shifty, poppy undersized stud with an athletically underrated pounder to do the dirty work.  

    New scheme, new coach, and many new players will be no small feat to repeat the success of the 2018 ground game 

     

The idea was they could support two highly successful fantasy RBs. It wasn’t an apples-to-apples comp of styles as you seem to want to do with Alstott and Dunn, who were not highly successful fantasy RBs but instead backs you owned when you missed out on the bell cow studs of the era, same as Stewart and DeAngelo, or Bradshaw and Jacobs, or Barry Foster and Bam Morris. I think Lindsay and Freeman can be more than that, a la Kamara and Ingram, especially in an era with fewer bell cows and considering Munchak, the draft picks, the new coaches, etc... I expect them to far surpass their 2018 numbers.

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5 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

The idea was they could support two highly successful fantasy RBs. It wasn’t an apples-to-apples comp of styles as you seem to want to do with Alstott and Dunn, who were not highly successful fantasy RBs but instead backs you owned when you missed out on the bell cow studs of the era, same as Stewart and DeAngelo, or Bradshaw and Jacobs, or Barry Foster and Bam Morris. I think Lindsay and Freeman can be more than that, a la Kamara and Ingram, especially in an era with fewer bell cows and considering Munchak, the draft picks, the new coaches, etc... I expect them to far surpass their 2018 numbers.

 

That seems entirely optimistic to me-  especially in regards to Freeman.     O line isn’t plug and play like a top pass rusher or D lineman-   and that’s shown itself so far in inconsistency this summer.   This isn’t a deep team either-  injuries will hurt.  SFs backups made Denvers look like a varsity/JV game.   It’s been the case for a number of years which contributes to Denvers nasty habit of coming out hot and getting hurt/ sucking.  

 

7-9, 8-8 9-7 type team with some great moments and some bombs.    Better than last year but certainly not supporting two rb2s- let alone two top 5s.   More seasoning and talent needed.   

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52 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

That seems entirely optimistic to me-  especially in regards to Freeman.     O line isn’t plug and play like a top pass rusher or D lineman-   and that’s shown itself so far in inconsistency this summer.   This isn’t a deep team either-  injuries will hurt.  SFs backups made Denvers look like a varsity/JV game.   It’s been the case for a number of years which contributes to Denvers nasty habit of coming out hot and getting hurt/ sucking.  

 

7-9, 8-8 9-7 type team with some great moments and some bombs.    Better than last year but certainly not supporting two rb2s- let alone two top 5s.   More seasoning and talent needed.   

Agree to disagree, I suppose. They seem most likely to me to ‘pull a Colts’ as far as the o-line goes (become elite). And don’t forget the two new major pieces to that line were both rookies, one an all-timer in Quenton Nelson, granted, but the other, Braden Smith, was considered a huge reach and expected by almost everyone to be shifted inside before make the RT spot his. McGlinchey, Ragnow, Hernandez and Orlando Brown all had excellent rookie seasons too. I think Risner will plug right in and be excellent.

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On 8/21/2019 at 8:19 AM, fruitjacket said:

How is he not in the top 10RB discussion?  Because of Royce Freeman????

Because the Broncos seem to be set on using Freeman a lot. I think we should expect a timeshare to start the season, and then we'll have to see who wins that battle.

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, Fierylady said:

Agree to disagree, I suppose. They seem most likely to me to ‘pull a Colts’ as far as the o-line goes (become elite). And don’t forget the two new major pieces to that line were both rookies, one an all-timer in Quenton Nelson, granted, but the other, Braden Smith, was considered a huge reach and expected by almost everyone to be shifted inside before make the RT spot his. McGlinchey, Ragnow, Hernandez and Orlando Brown all had excellent rookie seasons too. I think Risner will plug right in and be excellent.

 

Yes we can agree to disagree.   It’s just not a “plug right in” scenario when you have mostly new players, a new line coach, new OC with a new blocking system, new HC, new Qb, and a field full of inexperienced skill players.    

Name dropping a few rookie OL success stories doesn’t change any of this.  Garrett Bolles is looking like a bust, and Ron Leary will be lucky to see 8 games this season-  his health is still a major problem.   

All that said- I think they’ll pull it together for a decent season at some point.  Top 3 like 2018 before the crash would be remarkable indeed.   

Edited by Impreza178

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4 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Yes we can agree to disagree.   It’s just not a “plug right in” scenario when you have mostly new players, a new line coach, new OC with a new blocking system, new HC, new Qb, and a field full of inexperienced skill players.    

Name dropping a few rookie OL success stories doesn’t change any of this.  Garrett Bolles is looking like a bust, and Ron Leary will be lucky to see 8 games this season-  his health is still a major problem.   

All that said- I think they’ll pull it together for a decent season at some point.  Top 3 like 2018 before the crash would be remarkable indeed.   

You keep saying the Broncos’ line was ranked third last year and unlikely to improve, but when you mention they also have an oft-injured guard and a bust of a tackle... doesn’t that make it seem like there’s a pretty obvious route to improve?

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