Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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47 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

This thread reminds me so much of the Kevin Kolb thread from like 5 or 7 years ago, where Yahoo projected him for 5,000 yards and like 35TD, and everyone ate it up despite him being a total barf, but he had a great "situation".

Fake news...never happened.  

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16 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Who? Let’s hear it. What FA available would replace him? It would have to be a draft pick and if you think the Chiefs are spending high capital (high enough to justify replacing Williams as the week 1 starter) are about ZERO PERCENT. I love when people say he won’t be the starter (and a defecto first rounder as a result) yet can’t support it with anything that makes sense 

Considering it took zero draft capital to draft Williams, I’m guessing there’s a chance he’s not the last of his kind.

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Can we admit his recent pace isn’t sustainable...?

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33 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

Who? Let’s hear it. What FA available would replace him? It would have to be a draft pick and if you think the Chiefs are spending high capital (high enough to justify replacing Williams as the week 1 starter) are about ZERO PERCENT. I love when people say he won’t be the starter (and a defecto first rounder as a result) yet can’t support it with anything that makes sense 

 

It's called an opinion. I don't know who the Chiefs will sign or draft because I don't have a crystal ball. If you think Damien Williams will be a 3-down-back and you want to draft him in the first round, have at it.

Edited by fletch44

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10 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Please tell me that you see him as a 20+ td RB next season...puleez.

Why would he need to score 20 tds to justify a top two round price tag? 

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1 minute ago, Joe Odam said:

It's one thing to infer that his TD pace will continue. You're picking low hanging fruit (likely because you're logic is inherently lazy). It's another thing altogether to suggest his fantasy points per game could (which is all anyone should care about). So yes, that's perfectly within the realm of possibilities as the starter for the Chiefs, with the skill-set he possesses. I'll take it a step further and say if he were to play a full 16 games next season he absolutely could score 20 TD's. Why not? I'll wait for the inevitable answer....."just cuz"

Sounds like there’s an argument to pick him at the top of the draft.

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14 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Why would he need to score 20 tds to justify a top two round price tag? 

Nobody is arguing that a starting rb for KC isn’t worth that.

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7 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

It's one thing to infer that his TD pace will continue. You're picking low hanging fruit (likely because you're logic is inherently lazy). It's another thing altogether to suggest his fantasy points per game could (which is all anyone should care about). So yes, that's perfectly within the realm of possibilities as the starter for the Chiefs, with the skill-set he possesses. 

How do you seperate td pace from a ppg projection?

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5 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Sounds like there’s an argument to pick him at the top of the draft.

if someone risk adverse felt so inclined, sure.  There are "safer picks" with longer track records but his production forecast would be equally impressive

 

6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

How do you seperate td pace from a ppg projection?

quite easily; points are rewarded for achievements beyond TD's ;)

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

In a standard draft you could raise a question about Williams over any of those guys.

 

Not for me. I will gladly pass on a 5 game producer and take all of those stud WR's first. The risk of Williams vs Julio Jones makes them not even close. Not to mention Williams is downgraded in a standard league.

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3 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

In a standard draft you could raise a question about Williams over any of those guys.

I think you have been ignoring his recent targets, good Lord.

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2 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Oh it happened, haha.  Was actually 2010 though, so 9 years ago, yikes.

Dude was a mid-rd pick at best...that’s not the draft furor that you were describing.

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[Bickering removed.  Warnings/suspensions will be issued to anyone who can't make their points without petty personal attacks.]

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3 hours ago, psygolf said:

Dude was a mid-rd pick at best...that’s not the draft furor that you were describing.

 

I tried to dig it up, but the internets only go so far back with this stuff.  I found him ranked #7 at the QB position for Yahoo preseason in 2010, but it did not have the projected stats.  What I recall is they had him with some crazy numbers, then hedged their bets with Mike Vick getting like 3 games worth of action, which combined was over 5,000 yards passing 300 yards rushing 35+ Passing TD, 5 Rushing TD, etc..  Also, the #7 projection was back in a Fantasy Era when QBs were taken much much earlier than 3rd round (1 year removed from the Brady 50 TD), the game has evolved from that standpoint.  

 

I guess TBD on the Chiefs offseason and TBD on Williams preseason ranking.  But same coach, same powerhouse offense, and same lack of track record, hence the comparison.

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2 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I tried to dig it up, but the internets only go so far back with this stuff.  I found him ranked #7 at the QB position for Yahoo preseason in 2010, but it did not have the projected stats.  What I recall is they had him with some crazy numbers, then hedged their bets with Mike Vick getting like 3 games worth of action, which combined was over 5,000 yards passing 300 yards rushing 35+ Passing TD, 5 Rushing TD, etc..  Also, the #7 projection was back in a Fantasy Era when QBs were taken much much earlier than 3rd round (1 year removed from the Brady 50 TD), the game has evolved from that standpoint.  

 

I guess TBD on the Chiefs offseason and TBD on Williams preseason ranking.  But same coach, same powerhouse offense, and same lack of track record, hence the comparison.

Just flat-out mistaken.

 

Fantasy Football Calculator history...rd 6

 

you could buy him between Flacco & Cutler - weeee.

Edited by psygolf

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I think a good comparison would be...CJ spiller? (potential situation-wise)

Edited by bhawks489
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11 hours ago, psygolf said:

Just flat-out mistaken.

 

Fantasy Football Calculator history...rd 6

 

you could buy him between Flacco & Cutler - weeee.

 

Haha, that's a lot of effort to prove a straw man argument.  My point was Yahoo projected the Eagles for 5,000 yards passing and 35+ TD, plus rushing stats for the Eagles offense.  He was the number 7 ranked Yahoo QB.  A lot of people bought into the hype.  Even by your fantasy football calculator comparison, he was taken as early as 40th overall.  He was a zero that season.  I think my memory holds up pretty well after 9 years.

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5 hours ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Haha, that's a lot of effort to prove a straw man argument.  My point was Yahoo projected the Eagles for 5,000 yards passing and 35+ TD, plus rushing stats for the Eagles offense.  He was the number 7 ranked Yahoo QB.  A lot of people bought into the hype.  Even by your fantasy football calculator comparison, he was taken as early as 40th overall.  He was a zero that season.  I think my memory holds up pretty well after 9 years.

 

You're using Kevin Kolb from 2008 as your example against taking Damien Williams for 2019??  You can't come up with a better or more relevant example than that?

 

There are a bunch of examples of RB that were overlooked heading into the season even though they were locked into the starting job and were going to be a big part of a good offense.  These guys went on to majorly outproduce:

 

2008 - Michael Turner (drafted as RB 20, late RD 4), finished as the #2 fantasy RB in 1/2 PPR (275 points) 

 

2010 - Arian Foster (drafted as RB16, late RD 3) finished as the #1 fantasy RB in 1/2 PPR (359 points)

 

2011 - Marshawn Lynch (drafted as RB30, early RD 7) finished as the #5 fantasy RB in 1/2 PPR (230 points)

 

2016 - LeGarrette Blount (drafted as RB34, late RD 7) finished as the #8 fantasy RB in 1/2 PPR (229 points)

 

All RB who were either unknown, unproven, or thought to be busts heading into their break-out year, in which they had the clear lead RB role for their team entering the regular season.

 

Again, if KC spends significant capital at RB in FA or the draft, then all bets are off for Damien for 2019.  However, if the team sticks with Ware, Darrel Williams and/or some lesser RB, then odds are Damien will be the lead back for KC in an Andy Reid offense that tends to favor 1 workhouse RB that plays all 3 downs.

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6 hours ago, J.T. Marlin said:

 

Again, if KC spends significant capital at RB in FA or the draft, then all bets are off for Damien for 2019.  However, if the team sticks with Ware, Darrel Williams and/or some lesser RB, then odds are Damien will be the lead back for KC in an Andy Reid offense that tends to favor 1 workhouse RB that plays all 3 downs.

 

Andy Reid hasn't had a lead RB that has played all 3 downs the last two years (could go back further). Hunt was taken out on most third downs last year and this year. Ware and Williams were taken out on third downs too. That doesn't mean those RB's don't get catches, they do, but saying they play all 3 downs is not accurate.

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1 hour ago, FISH20 said:

 

Andy Reid hasn't had a lead RB that has played all 3 downs the last two years (could go back further). Hunt was taken out on most third downs last year and this year. Ware and Williams were taken out on third downs too. That doesn't mean those RB's don't get catches, they do, but saying they play all 3 downs is not accurate.

1st and 2nd down for Reid are the same as 3rd downs for every other team. All anyone should care about is touch distribution in his offenses.  Reid is not a RBBC proponent. 

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28 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

1st and 2nd down for Reid are the same as 3rd downs for every other team. All anyone should care about is touch distribution in his offenses.  Reid is not a RBBC proponent. 

 

Yup, Reid's RB1's have performed very well, but they are not used as 3 down backs. Getting catches on 1st and 2nd down does not equal "3 down back".

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7 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

Yup, Reid's RB1's have performed very well, but they are not used as 3 down backs. Getting catches on 1st and 2nd down does not equal "3 down back".

That’s not what I said. Read more closely. Most teams strictly feature a different running back on 3rd downs who is capable of receiving out of the backfield. Reid uses those same guys on 1st and 2nd downs. Many times his 3rd down back is in for blocking purposes. For example Ware cake in on almost all 3rd downs in the championship game and had exactly...1 touch. If you’re getting all the touches in both the run and pass game then what difference does it make if you’re a “3 down back”? 

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If Spencer Ware came in and did what Williams did.  There is no question there would be talk of Ware going in the first two rounds.  So why not Williams?

 

as long as the current situation remains as is of course 

Edited by poofinger
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3 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

That’s not what I said. Read more closely. Most teams strictly feature a different running back on 3rd downs who is capable of receiving out of the backfield. Reid uses those same guys on 1st and 2nd downs. Many times his 3rd down back is in for blocking purposes. For example Ware cake in on almost all 3rd downs in the championship game and had exactly...1 touch. If you’re getting all the touches in both the run and pass game then what difference does it make if you’re a “3 down back”? 

 

It makes no difference... I'm not debating usage or his value. You responded to my original message where I said it's not accurate to call Williams a 3 down back, which is true. That doesn't mean he still can't be a good fantasy RB.

Edited by FISH20

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