Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

 

When we drafted, Damien with his "situation" in the KC offense + his "talent" was elite and proven through every single game he started last year including playoffs.  Nobody factored in lesean mccoy getting cut and signed in KC.  Nobody factored in Damien getting dinged up playing on Oakland's rock hard dirt baseball football field s--- combo.  All of "I told you so" trolls fighting among yourselves to claim the credit are full of it.  

 

 

Not true.

His talent was elite and proven after a 5 game sample size?  There were tons of people saying that while the upside was high there was risk in that he didn’t do s--- in his first 5 years in the league.

Damien losing work was also foreseeable.  Maybe it wasn’t foreseeable that it would be to Shady but when you’re drafting for situation the risk is always there that he will lose work over the course of he year.  

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3 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Oh please.  Williams performed decently well in a blip of a sample size at the very end of the year.  He started what?  2 games at the end of the season and 2 in the playoffs?  He had like 15 total carries before starting.  

 

Started 3 regular season games, 2 playoffs games.  

Damien was a good player stuck on a bad team.  The run game was bad in Miami and that was all Damien's fault right?  Running success has nothing to do with play calling, game script or even the offensive line right?   Hey wasn't  Is Laremy  Tunsil part of that line?  He must be terrible too.  His entire career before Houston was at Miami and he couldn't do anything for the run game.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

 

When we drafted, Damien with his "situation" in the KC offense + his "talent" was elite and proven through every single game he started last year including playoffs.  Nobody factored in lesean mccoy getting cut and signed in KC.  Nobody factored in Damien getting dinged up playing on Oakland's rock hard dirt baseball football field s--- combo.  All of "I told you so" trolls fighting among yourselves to claim the credit are full of it.  

 

I was skeptical even prior to the roster moves. Factor in a guy who has never produced up until that point and gave the performance of his career for about 5 games. He wasn’t a highly touted draft pick and he was an afterthought. 2nd rd reach for sure. He went 5th rd in mine, which if people took him there it wouldn’t be a big deal. I’m kind of shocked he got banged up so early. I was expecting it, but not this early. You can go back through the thread if you like. His ADP was outrageous and people wouldn’t listen. In fact, I got laughed at. But it’s all good. What I saw from Andy Reid last year was a guy who was just scraping the barrel after his #1 and #2 became unavailable. Didn’t expect Shady either, but it just confirmed Reid’s confidence in DW, or lack thereof.

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5 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

 Running success has nothing to do with play calling, game script or even the offensive line right?   Hey wasn't  Is Laremy  Tunsil part of that line?  He must be terrible too.  His entire career before Houston was at Miami and he couldn't do anything for the run game.  

 

 

Things like game script, playcalling, and the O-line affected the guys who were actually carrying the ball in Miami. Not Williams.  He was held down by an inability to beat out other players. 

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1 minute ago, Mathew Berry said:

Damien was a good player stuck on a bad team.  The run game was bad in Miami and that was all Damien's fault right?  Running success has nothing to do with play calling, game script or even the offensive line right?   Hey wasn't  Is Laremy  Tunsil part of that line?  He must be terrible too.  His entire career before Houston was at Miami and he couldn't do anything for the run game.  

 

 

How do you know he was a good player?  Wasn't good enough to get drafted.  Wasn't good enough to beat out other backs in Miami.    

By the way, Jay Ajayi managed 1200+ rushing yards on 4.9 ypc while Williams was on the team.  That same year, Williams rushed for a robust 3.3 YPC.  Clearly, a conspiracy by the Dolphins to sabotage Williams.  You can't blame it all on the Dolphins.  

Lamar Miller also had 4.8 and 5.1 YPC seasons on those 14 & 15 Dolphins teams.  Williams?   3.4 and 3.7 those same years.  

Dolphins did have running success, contrary to your assertion.  They had success precisely because they gave the ball to players that were a lot better than Williams.  

And what do you know?  Damien Williams looks terrible to start this year.  He definitively does not look like an "elite talent."  He looks like a JAG.  The same JAG that did nothing in Miami and the same back who could not get himself drafted.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Rainyy said:

 

Damien Williams looks terrible to start this year.  He definitively does not look like an "elite talent."  He looks like a JAG.  The same JAG that did nothing in Miami and the same back who could not get himself drafted.  

 

 

Williams is only a couple points behind those JAGs Kamara and Chubb on the season and only 8 points behind your boy, that JAG Bell. what's their excuse for being such JAGs and looking so terrible to start this year? [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed personal call-out.
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To be hair, a lot of the top RBs look subpar to start this year - Kamara, Bell (unless in PPR), Chubb, Conner, Michel all seem to be treading water. It isn't just Damien. No one should think he is an elite talent, but RBs are more a system player than anything else. KC has an elite passing offense, and you have to figure their running game will get going eventually. 

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5 minutes ago, atdharris said:

To be hair, a lot of the top RBs look subpar to start this year - Kamara, Bell (unless in PPR), Chubb, Conner, Michel all seem to be treading water. It isn't just Damien. No one should think he is an elite talent, but RBs are more a system player than anything else. KC has an elite passing offense, and you have to figure their running game will get going eventually. 

 

Don't forget Mixon, doing his best Damien Williams impression to start the first two games of the season

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13 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Williams is only a couple points behind those JAGs Kamara and Chubb on the season and only 8 points behind your boy, that JAG Bell. what's their excuse for being such JAGs and looking so terrible to start this year? [...]

 

You can't judge a player's ability on fantasy points, and especially not over small samples.  (Anyone remember the year Jeremy Hill was a consensus first round pick off a season in which he accumulated enough stats to be like RB10?)

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Just now, KennyWoo said:

 

You can't judge a player's ability on fantasy points, and especially not over small samples.  (Anyone remember the year Jeremy Hill was a consensus first round pick off a season in which he accumulated enough stats to be like RB10?)

 

Also CJ Spiller going 1st round from a strong previous season as RB7 in 2012. God, that was such a bad pick...

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4 minutes ago, WaiverLooter said:

 

Don't forget Mixon, doing his best Damien Williams impression to start the first two games of the season

 

Yep. Aside from Elliott and Barkley (and Cook, but he was not a consensus 1st rounder), most of the top RBs have not panned out so far. I am not ready to write Williams off yet. 

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1 minute ago, WaiverLooter said:

 

Also CJ Spiller going 1st round from a strong previous season as RB7 in 2012. God, that was such a bad pick...

 

You had to believe Spiller would regress after averaging a ridiculous YPG that year. Williams didn't average stupid numbers last year, but he was a steady RB2 and can be this year too . Spiller also was in Buffalo's poor offense... 

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3 minutes ago, atdharris said:

 

You had to believe Spiller would regress after averaging a ridiculous YPG that year. Williams didn't average stupid numbers last year, but he was a steady RB2 and can be this year too . Spiller also was in Buffalo's poor offense... 

What was spillers fantasy point per touch?

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3 minutes ago, atdharris said:

 

You had to believe Spiller would regress after averaging a ridiculous YPG that year. Williams didn't average stupid numbers last year, but he was a steady RB2 and can be this year too . Spiller also was in Buffalo's poor offense... 

 

5.1 ypc last year with the Chiefs definitely raises some red flags. For reference, among RBs, only Jamaal Charles and Jim Brown averaged a higher career ypc.

Yes Spiller's average was even more exaggerated at 6.0, but 5.1 ypc for a career 3.6 ypc rusher up to that point was definitely an outlier.

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4 minutes ago, atdharris said:

 

Yep. Aside from Elliott and Barkley (and Cook, but he was not a consensus 1st rounder), most of the top RBs have not panned out so far. I am not ready to write Williams off yet. 

I wouldn't say not panned out, all the RB in the first round have had at least one good game to great game. 

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28 minutes ago, atdharris said:

 

Yep. Aside from Elliott and Barkley (and Cook, but he was not a consensus 1st rounder), most of the top RBs have not panned out so far. I am not ready to write Williams off yet. 

 

Ekeler and his 63 points thru two games begs to differ. He's the top RB in fantasy and 2nd overall in points scored. I grabbed him in the 5th and would have taken him in the 4th if we hadn't switched to a 3 WR league. No idea why his ADP was so low. A blind man could see that coming. 

Edited by Dexter75

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43 minutes ago, Mathew Berry said:

 

Started 3 regular season games, 2 playoffs games.  

Damien was a good player stuck on a bad team.  The run game was bad in Miami and that was all Damien's fault right?  Running success has nothing to do with play calling, game script or even the offensive line right?   Hey wasn't  Is Laremy  Tunsil part of that line?  He must be terrible too.  His entire career before Houston was at Miami and he couldn't do anything for the run game.  

 

 

Not sure there is enough evidence so support the idea that Williams was a good player stuck on a bad team.  He had four full years in Miami where he didn't exactly look like he was a NFL caliber RB while damn near every RB they played in front of him out produced him.  Miller, Ajai and Drake were all productive behind exactly the same line.  in 3 of his 4 starts in Miami he was out produced by his back up.  Andy Reid has made guys like Charcadrick West, Kniles Davis and Spencer Ware into serviceable RBs.  That's 3 players who were all but out of football the second they stepped away from KC and all 3 of them had multiple starts with production that's similar to what Williams has put up over his 7 starts with KC.  West and Davis had stretches of quality production that were just as long as the tiny 5 game stretch we seen last year. 

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22 minutes ago, kevinwayne20 said:

Not sure there is enough evidence so support the idea that Williams was a good player stuck on a bad team.  He had four full years in Miami where he didn't exactly look like he was a NFL caliber RB while damn near every RB they played in front of him out produced him.  Miller, Ajai and Drake were all productive behind exactly the same line.  in 3 of his 4 starts in Miami he was out produced by his back up.  Andy Reid has made guys like Charcadrick West, Kniles Davis and Spencer Ware into serviceable RBs.  That's 3 players who were all but out of football the second they stepped away from KC and all 3 of them had multiple starts with production that's similar to what Williams has put up over his 7 starts with KC.  West and Davis had stretches of quality production that were just as long as the tiny 5 game stretch we seen last year. 

Was he as productive as an undrafted free agent when compared to the slew of drafted RBS ahead of him?  No, and certainly not if he only gets 33 rush attempts per season (on average at Miami).  But where may I ask are those drafted running backs that were given more run ahead of him? (Namely Ajayi and Gillislee).  They were bounced around, traded and dropped.  

His years in Miami can be spun however you want.  I'd argue that 33 rush attempts per year average is not a substantial sample size.  But 30 receptions a year is a legit sample size for a backup running back and he excelled in the passing game.  

And lastly, however you might hold his Miami years against him, Andy Reid (the only person's opinion that matters) clearly saw enough out of those Miami years to bring him onto the team.   

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56 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Ekeler and his 63 points thru two games begs to differ. He's the top RB in fantasy and 2nd overall in points scored. I grabbed him in the 5th and would have taken him in the 4th if we hadn't switched to a 3 WR league. No idea why his ADP was so low. A blind man could see that coming. 

Because Melvin Gordon could report at any given moment

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1 hour ago, WaiverLooter said:

 

5.1 ypc last year with the Chiefs definitely raises some red flags. For reference, among RBs, only Jamaal Charles and Jim Brown averaged a higher career ypc.

Yes Spiller's average was even more exaggerated at 6.0, but 5.1 ypc for a career 3.6 ypc rusher up to that point was definitely an outlier.

Melvin Gordon averaged 3.9 ypc until he hit 5.0 last year.

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7 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Melvin Gordon averaged 3.9 ypc until he hit 5.0 last year.

 

Ok, so another example of an outlier... Gordon until last year has never been efficient with his carries (he never had competition though), but he has tremendous value in the passing game. I guess you can make the case for Damien Williams to be in the same mold but I'm still not quite buying it.

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4 hours ago, Mathew Berry said:

 

When we drafted, Damien with his "situation" in the KC offense + his "talent" was elite and proven through every single game he started last year including playoffs.  Nobody factored in lesean mccoy getting cut and signed in KC.  Nobody factored in Damien getting dinged up playing on Oakland's rock hard dirt baseball football field s--- combo.  All of "I told you so" trolls fighting among yourselves to claim the credit are full of it.  

 

 

however there are pages and pages of people arguing that williams was a JAG and that his run at the end of last season was due to the system and not the player. PLenty of pages in here of people claiming he'd fall off or not return 2nd round value because they thought he was a career jag and fell into a good situation. This really isn't a hindsight "i told you so moment" because the concerns were brought up even before Shady was picked up by KC. It was basically rotoworld RB hypebeasters vs rotoworld rb hype haters in here for the longest and it continues now. 

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5 minutes ago, Guwop said:

 

however there are pages and pages of people arguing that williams was a JAG and that his run at the end of last season was due to the system and not the player. PLenty of pages in here of people claiming he'd fall off or not return 2nd round value because they thought he was a career jag and fell into a good situation. This really isn't a hindsight "i told you so moment" because the concerns were brought up even before Shady was picked up by KC. It was basically rotoworld RB hypebeasters vs rotoworld rb hype haters in here for the longest and it continues now. 

 

Guess what, all of those pages and pages of concerns that people are now boasting about Has nothing to do with  the status quo.  Reid signing his second son had nothing to do with Damien being a JAG. Damien getting hurt playing on a dirt baseball crap field has nothing to do with being a JAG.  

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This is kinda Damien's modus operandi.

 

Get hurt early in the season, get forgotten about. Get healthy later in the season and slide right back into a prominent role of a proficient offense.

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