Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, JSA2422 said:

In before a game time tweet showing DWill the starter but only getting 3 touches 

 

Last time DWilli played the colts he destroyed them and had 3 TDs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Darrel was dominant in pass protection, especially compared to Damien and Shady, and might have earned his spot in their 2 minute offense and 3rd & long package. This would spell doom for both D-Wills, since it would turn into a weekly guessing game, which is what you don't want at all in FF...😣

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's good news that he is back.  I don't believe there's any chance he goes straight back to being the starter, as he's probably going to be gimpy even if he plays.  I don't think we'll have any sense until week 6 actually.

Still in the boat that it is Darrel who will lose snaps and McCoy will stay in his role, at a minimum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Pooskay said:

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

30-40 rushing yards sounds good....

when you pair it with 5 catches and a touchdown

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, frog34 said:

Darrel was dominant in pass protection, especially compared to Damien and Shady, and might have earned his spot in their 2 minute offense and 3rd & long package. This would spell doom for both D-Wills, since it would turn into a weekly guessing game, which is what you don't want at all in FF...😣

Actually, Damien and Darrel are BOTH great at pass protection. Someone posted their grades a while back, so I don't have exact figures but to say he's more dominant than Damien is incorrect.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, kelle1sa said:

Actually, Damien and Darrel are BOTH great at pass protection. Someone posted their grades a while back, so I don't have exact figures but to say he's more dominant than Damien is incorrect.



I can confirm this is true. Both Damien and Darrel have 80+ pass block ratings via PFF. That is elite. Mccoy is at 35 now. Last week though he was at 18. I do not have access to weekly scores, just season long scores but it looks like last week against the Lions Mccoy received his best pass blocking rating while on the Chiefs. (Getting accustomed to the system)

IMO McCoy retains/gains slight share over the season (but no more than 60-65% of snaps) with either Damien or Darrel receiving the rest of the work. Darrel/Damien is a crapshoot. I doubt we see a 3 back committee here, one of the D Wills should prevail for the remaining 35-40% of snaps.
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, TomBradyDaGOAT said:



I can confirm this is true. Both Damien and Darrel have 80+ pass block ratings via PFF. That is elite. Mccoy is at 35 now. Last week though he was at 18. I do not have access to weekly scores, just season long scores but it looks like last week against the Lions Mccoy received his best pass blocking rating while on the Chiefs. (Getting accustomed to the system)

IMO McCoy retains/gains slight share over the season (but no more than 60-65% of snaps) with either Damien or Darrel receiving the rest of the work. Darrel/Damien is a crapshoot. I doubt we see a 3 back committee here, one of the D Wills should prevail for the remaining 35-40% of snaps.
 

It’s not a crap shoot.   Both are solid and can be trusted to block and catch... but one is explosive.   McCoy will lead and Damien will play the Chark role of COP/3rd Downs.    

 

Darrell maybe gets to kill some clock or GL.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

 

Ekeler is only averaging 55 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) yet he's also averaging 122 scrimmage yards a game and 6 TDs thru 4 games. Hes the RB2 in fantasy right now behind CMC . If you are a great pass catching back, you dont have to rush for a ton of yards to be effective. 

Edited by Dexter75
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Pooskay said:

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

 

him being on the field so they can justify that 2nd round pick they spent

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Pooskay said:

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

Let's see what happens first Nostradamus

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Pooskay said:

And what exactly are DWill owners getting excited about if he were to come back?  30-40 yds? lmao

 

At his current rate, he’d need 20 carries or more to get there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Dexter75 said:

 

Ekeler is only averaging 55 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) yet he's also averaging 122 scrimmage yards a game and 6 TDs thru 4 games. Hes the RB2 in fantasy right now behind CMC . If you are a great pass catching back, you dont have to rush for a ton of yards to be effective. 

He was also the bell cow but now that gordon is back I don’t see him getting 122 yards/gm. I don’t see dwill all of a sudden gettting majority of the touches.

 

If the receptions are there dwill should be fine though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Glad he is back and practicing. First decent game he has I am going to try and trade him for the best offer. Not gonna play it cute. Too risky. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Phatpanda said:

Glad he is back and practicing. First decent game he has I am going to try and trade him for the best offer. Not gonna play it cute. Too risky. 

 

Cool. What brought you to this conclusion?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Damien practiced in full while McCoy limited today. 

Prob nothing but thought I'd throw it out there.

Little reach-y but it could also indicate McCoy is breaking down already. I don't think he can carry a bell cow workload anymore like I thought he potentially could in the beginning of the season, so at least that threat is taken away for Damien owners imo. 

This will be a timeshare no matter what, and a lot is going to ride on Damien vs. Darrell. Impatient Damien owners should look to sell right now, as his comeback prob bumped his perceived value until Sunday. 

Edited by yahyahtrick
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, yahyahtrick said:

Damien practiced in full while McCoy limited today. 

Prob nothing but thought I'd throw it out there.

Little reach-y but it could also indicate McCoy is breaking down already. I don't think he can carry a bell cow workload anymore like I thought he potentially could in the beginning of the season, so at least that threat is taken away for Damien owners imo. 

This will be a timeshare no matter what, and a lot is going to ride on Damien vs. Darrell. Impatient Damien owners should look to sell right now, as his comeback prob bumped his perceived value until Sunday. 

Good stuff here

Im thinking this is continued maintenance with Shady.   Another week of 10-15 touches early in the game before the ankle tightens up on him.   Until we see a week of full practices there’s a substantial role for a second back.  

Edited by Impreza178

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Cool. What brought you to this conclusion?

 

I have never been high on Williams. I think he is a JAG that took advantage of an excellent opportunity last year. 

 

He has never really shown the ability to do it over a long period or stay healthy and the Chiefs have options with McCoy and Darrel. Any mediocre back can be successful in this system. Just my opinion from watching the games.

Perhaps he proves me wrong when he returns, but I would rather trade him if there is an opportunity. Perhaps a Darrel owner that has tasted the sweet nectar of a Chiefs fantasy RB would be willing to pony up a decent player in return.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Phatpanda said:

 

I have never been high on Williams. I think he is a JAG that took advantage of an excellent opportunity last year. 

 

He has never really shown the ability to do it over a long period or stay healthy and the Chiefs have options with McCoy and Darrel. Any mediocre back can be successful in this system. Just my opinion from watching the games.

Perhaps he proves me wrong when he returns, but I would rather trade him if there is an opportunity. Perhaps a Darrel owner that has tasted the sweet nectar of a Chiefs fantasy RB would be willing to pony up a decent player in return.

 

Has Darrell done it over a long period of time?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Took a look at some advanced metrics for this backfield over at Footballoutsiders to perhaps shed some light on the situation. Some believe in advanced metrics, some don't, take it for what i's worth but it sure has helped my decision making in FF numerous times over the years.

DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense.

Rushing DVOA (%)
McCoy 14.5% (RB8) - 40 rushes
Darrel -9.3% (no rank) - 17 rushes
Damien -33.7% (no rank) - 22 rushes

Neither Darrel or Damien gets a rank here due to below 32 rush attempts. But for comparison, in the list of 32+ attempt rushers, -9.3% would land at RB24 and -33.7% at RB37.

Receiving DVOA (%)
Darrel 38.2% (RB4) - 9 targets
McCoy 13.5% (RB14) - 12 targets
Damien 6.9% (RB17) - 11 targets

McCoy has been by far the most effective on the ground. Metrics confirming what everyone also has seen pretty much, his role is likely the only certainty here, barring health. After that, Darrel's presence should not be underestimated. Neither Williams has been particularly effective on the ground, but especially Darrel's performance in the passing game stands out, and has surprised. Possibly also the Chiefs.

Worth to mention however, even though it was last year and things change, Damien had a 26.4% DVOA over 50 rushes and 33.9% over 24 targets during his hot finish 2018. Top marks if it would have been over a bigger sample. Preseason injury still nagging or something else, but he wasn't the same before going down.

Huge week for the Williams.

 

  • Thanks 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nope, but he was pretty successful. This offense has shown that it does not need a workhorse RB or supreme talent aka Zeke or Barkley. Reid likes his RBBC. Guess I prefer to have the predictable volume. But I can see how people are high on his potential value. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I own all 3 - and I can’t understand how I’ll be able to start Damien or Darrel this week (I think starting McCoy is safe).

 

I’m hoping that Damien that go off similar to the end of last year so that I can move down to two RB’s in this backfield.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Heizz said:

I own all 3 - and I can’t understand how I’ll be able to start Damien or Darrel this week (I think starting McCoy is safe).

 

I’m hoping that Damien that go off similar to the end of last year so that I can move down to two RB’s in this backfield.

You own all 3?! Oh man, bitter sweet when one scores.... but he’s the guy you benched 😫

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...