Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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22 minutes ago, ZappB said:

Have there been other RBs who did little for their first 3-5 years but then were RB1s or strong RB2s once they were given a full workload?  

 

2.75 years of meh, 2.75-8 years of RB1?

Derrick Henry 🤑

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2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

2.75 years of meh, 2.75-8 years of RB1?

Derrick Henry 🤑

Was just thinking of him!  But he fell just shy of the “3-5-year” criterion.

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38 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I’m sure there are several, but off the top of my head, a fellow KC guy named Priest Holmes comes to mind.

Thanks.  "3-5 years" is just me trying to make a comparison to someone who had very few touches but wasn't a rookie or sophomore like Williams, rather than someone like Henry who's younger and had more chances or someone else who shared a backfield but wasn't productive.

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7 minutes ago, ZappB said:

Thanks.  "3-5 years" is just me trying to make a comparison to someone who had very few touches but wasn't a rookie or sophomore like Williams, rather than someone like Henry who's younger and had more chances or someone else who shared a backfield but wasn't productive.

Sure - guys like Dion Lewis and Thomas Jones also come to mind on further reflection.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, ZappB said:

Have there been other RBs who did little for their first 3-5 years but then were RB1s or strong RB2s once they were given a full workload?  

We can try as much as we’d like to find anecdotal evidence to support or refute Damien being an rb1 in 2019 but in truth ALL emphasis needs to be placed on Reid and who he has carrying the bulk of the load for him. It would appear that’s Damien. As hard as it is to buy in, and as little supporting history as there is...that still makes him a locked in rb1 to start the season. A sexy one? No. One that I’d target everywhere? YES

 

 

Edited by Joe Odam
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3 hours ago, ZappB said:

Have there been other RBs who did little for their first 3-5 years but then were RB1s or strong RB2s once they were given a full workload?  

 

Here's a couple... Michael Turner, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson,

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11 hours ago, FISH20 said:

 

Here's a couple... Michael Turner, Priest Holmes, Tiki Barber, Justin Forsett, Fred Jackson,

 

Thomas Jones as well 

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20 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Marshawn Lynch.

 

Nah. Beast Mode rushed for over 1000 his first 2 seasons with 60+catches sprinkled in.

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1 minute ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Nah. Beast Mode rushed for over 1000 his first 2 seasons with 60+catches sprinkled in.

Besides lynch/Fred Jackson, that Buf team was hot garbage too. I'm not including lynch in that pool 

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Posted (edited)

 Cedric benson had several good years later in his career after the bears let him go. Oj simpson had an awful first 3 years of his career. John riggins took 5 years to break 1000 yards rushing and his best year was like 33 years old. Csonka didnt get to 1000 yards till year 4. I kno thats arnt fantasy guys but there hall of famers who started off slow. It happens 

Edited by Stonej14

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Posted (edited)

Here is something I found from crunching some numbers...

 

Everybody thinks Damien Williams wasn’t great on Miami. They’re wrong. Here is Damien Williams’ CAREER ppr fantasy points per touch: 1.24. That is over a 5 year career, 4 of which were spent with the Dolphins. 75% of his career touches were as a Dolphin, so this number is not propped up by his time in KC. In fact, this number doesn’t include his incredible two post season games for KC last year, which would push this number up significantly higher.

 

Here is how he stacks up versus some other top backs I looked at:

PPR Fantasy Points Per Touch

D Williams 1.24

C McCaffery 1.18

S Barkley 1.09

K Hunt 0.99

T Gurley 0.95

 

Interesting to see D Williams pushing these guys s--- in in fantasy efficiency, despite playing in Miami for an inept coaching staff and organization for 80% of his career. Hunt is nowhere near as productive as D Williams per touch. Not even close, despite spending his entire career and getting every single touch he has ever had in one of the best offenses in a generation. And neither is Gurley, who is downright pedestrian by this measure, just gets fed a ton of volume and scores a lot of TDs in another incredible offense. 

 

Lastly, taking a look at just this last year, 2018, D Williams averaged 1.35 ppr fantasy points per touch as a KC Chief. In the playoffs, that number bumped up to 1.38. Ridiculous. In 2018, in the same offense, when the offense was actually scoring at its highest and Mahomes was playing his best earlier in the season, Hunt averaged 1.11 points per touch, and in his only playoff game the year before he average a paltry 0.98 points per touch. 

 

D Williams, if nothing else, is an absolute force in fantasy efficiency both as a Dolphin and as a Chief. If he is the starter and he gets anywhere close to 200 carries and 100 targets he is going to be a top 5 RB without any question, more likely pushing top 1-2. That is an if for sure, but it isn’t an unreasonable one at all. 

Edited by elroypedro
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Posted (edited)

Also, should add:

 

Anyone who has followed Hyde knows his severe limitations as player, knows he is one of the worst pass blocking backs in the league, and is a very poor receiver out of the backfield, so it is no surprise his career points per touch are an absolutely abysmal 0.73. Just putrid. I haven’t come across a back with a worse number in the league yet, although i’ve only checked about 40 backs so far. 

As an example of backs Hyde has shared the backfield with in the last 2 years, Breida averaged 0.87 and Chubb 0.92. Nowhere near as good as Williams did last year or throughout his entire career but still significantly better than the god awful Hyde, who clearly is just a backup JAG behind D Williams.

Edited by elroypedro
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Wouldnt your efficiency likely go down with more touches just like ypc seem to level off with more touches? Austin eckler has a ypc of 5.2 if he could do that with 20 Carrie's a game he would be the best rb of all time

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Wouldnt your efficiency likely go down with more touches just like ypc seem to level off with more touches? Austin eckler has a ypc of 5.2 if he could do that with 20 Carrie's a game he would be the best rb of all time

Ekeler is very good and very efficient with his touches. Yes it would go down if a back is given a lot of carries and less targets out of the backfield. But we don’t see that with D Williams as the starter in KC. In fact his numbers rose in that scenario because of his great usage as a receiver. 

 

And if volume is your concern with these comparisons, then compare Saquon, at 352 Total Touches at 1.09 fantasy points per touch for a total of 383 fantasy points vs D Williams at 291 Total Touches(less but not by a ton) at 1.24 fantasy points per touch for 360 fantasy points. D Williams clearly doing more with less than Saquon, even significantly out scoring him per touch when he was a Dolphin.

 

Saquon - 352 Touches, 383 fantasy points, 1.09 points per touch

 

D Williams - 291 Touches, 360 fantasy points, 1.24 points per touch

Edited by elroypedro

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Ekeler is very good and very efficient with his touches. Yes it would go down if a back is given a lot of carries and less targets out of the backfield. But we don’t see that with D Williams as the starter in KC. In fact his numbers rose in that scenario because of his great usage as a receiver. 

 

And if volume is your concern with these comparisons, then compare Saquon, at 352 Total Touches at 1.09 fantasy points per touch for a total of 383 fantasy points vs D Williams at 291 Total Touches(less but not by a ton) at 1.24 fantasy points per touch for 360 fantasy points. D Williams clearly doing more with less than Saquon, even significantly out scoring him per touch when he was a Dolphin.

 

Saquon - 352 Touches, 383 fantasy points, 1.09 points per touch

 

D Williams - 291 Touches, 360 fantasy points, 1.24 points per touch

Interestingly enough, Damien had a lowest forced missed tackle % per touch in the entire KC backfield last year out of hunt, ware, and the other williams... = less talent?

Edited by psygolf

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On 3/22/2019 at 1:45 PM, bhawks489 said:

Besides lynch/Fred Jackson, that Buf team was hot garbage too. I'm not including lynch in that pool 

 

Was CJ Spiller involved too, I forget? I had high hopes for him

 

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Posted (edited)
On 4/2/2019 at 12:10 AM, Stonej14 said:

 Cedric benson had several good years later in his career after the bears let him go. Oj simpson had an awful first 3 years of his career. John riggins took 5 years to break 1000 yards rushing and his best year was like 33 years old. Csonka didnt get to 1000 yards till year 4. I kno thats arnt fantasy guys but there hall of famers who started off slow. It happens 

 

Tim Riggins > John Riggins

Edited by dmb3684

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7 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Ekeler is very good and very efficient with his touches. Yes it would go down if a back is given a lot of carries and less targets out of the backfield. But we don’t see that with D Williams as the starter in KC. In fact his numbers rose in that scenario because of his great usage as a receiver. 

 

And if volume is your concern with these comparisons, then compare Saquon, at 352 Total Touches at 1.09 fantasy points per touch for a total of 383 fantasy points vs D Williams at 291 Total Touches(less but not by a ton) at 1.24 fantasy points per touch for 360 fantasy points. D Williams clearly doing more with less than Saquon, even significantly out scoring him per touch when he was a Dolphin.

 

Saquon - 352 Touches, 383 fantasy points, 1.09 points per touch

 

D Williams - 291 Touches, 360 fantasy points, 1.24 points per touch

Comparing these two on their careers, when you just admitted that a back with a higher proportion of carries would be less efficient on this metric, is very contradictory.

Simple thought experiment: What would D Williams points per touch look like if his proportion of rushes/receptions was roughly the same as Saquon's?

Saquon's rushes/reception = 261/91 = 2.87. You would have to add ~126 carries to D Williams' career totals to get to approximately this proportion (183 carries + 126 carries/108 receptions) = 2.86. Using his career averages, and with generous rounding on TDs, add 504 rushing yards and 5 TDs to his career totals. That's about an extra 80 fantasy points.

Take his new touch total/new fantasy points = (291+126)/(360+80) = 0.95 points per touch. Significantly different from above, clearly not on Saquon's level, but not too bad, either.

 

Now I don't think this quick and dirty thing above is the right way to think about this, but I just wanted to show that the metric you are using is flawed and will always over-inflate pass-catching backs with limited rushing involvement. Here's another example - your metric would say James White is the best RB in the league. Do you really believe that?

 

Here's a suggestion: Either look at points per rush and points per catch separately (safer) or come up with a more robust way of combining the two together with some sort of weighted average or scaling to limit how much your metric overvalues pass-catching backs (will always be a little flawed, but would at least be a lot better than what you are using now).

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9 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Here is something I found from crunching some numbers...

 

Everybody thinks Damien Williams wasn’t great on Miami. They’re wrong. Here is Damien Williams’ CAREER ppr fantasy points per touch: 1.24. That is over a 5 year career, 4 of which were spent with the Dolphins. 75% of his career touches were as a Dolphin, so this number is not propped up by his time in KC. In fact, this number doesn’t include his incredible two post season games for KC last year, which would push this number up significantly higher.

 

Here is how he stacks up versus some other top backs I looked at:

PPR Fantasy Points Per Touch

D Williams 1.24

C McCaffery 1.18

S Barkley 1.09

K Hunt 0.99

T Gurley 0.95

 

Interesting to see D Williams pushing these guys s--- in in fantasy efficiency, despite playing in Miami for an inept coaching staff and organization for 80% of his career. Hunt is nowhere near as productive as D Williams per touch. Not even close, despite spending his entire career and getting every single touch he has ever had in one of the best offenses in a generation. And neither is Gurley, who is downright pedestrian by this measure, just gets fed a ton of volume and scores a lot of TDs in another incredible offense. 

 

Lastly, taking a look at just this last year, 2018, D Williams averaged 1.35 ppr fantasy points per touch as a KC Chief. In the playoffs, that number bumped up to 1.38. Ridiculous. In 2018, in the same offense, when the offense was actually scoring at its highest and Mahomes was playing his best earlier in the season, Hunt averaged 1.11 points per touch, and in his only playoff game the year before he average a paltry 0.98 points per touch. 

 

D Williams, if nothing else, is an absolute force in fantasy efficiency both as a Dolphin and as a Chief. If he is the starter and he gets anywhere close to 200 carries and 100 targets he is going to be a top 5 RB without any question, more likely pushing top 1-2. That is an if for sure, but it isn’t an unreasonable one at all. 

 

Your logic is faulty. As he gets more touches his efficiency will drop. See Lamar Miller.

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5 hours ago, psygolf said:

Interestingly enough, Damien had a lowest forced missed tackle % per touch in the entire KC backfield last year out of hunt, ware, and the other williams... = less talent?

 

Yes. Damien William's is not a great talent hes just in a good spot in KC. He also never averaged 4 ypc till last year = less talent? 

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9 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Saquon - 352 Touches, 383 fantasy points, 1.09 points per touch

 

D Williams - 291 Touches, 360 fantasy points, 1.24 points per touch

 

probably better to consider points per game instead of points per touch, yes?

i know you're not saying dwill compares to barkley in talent (right?), but for comparison's sake saquon was #2 in points per game (half point PPR), dwilliams #49. of course this is misleading because dwill wasn't starting, so we need to only count the games he was the chiefs' RB touch/leader: this number (15.5) moves the scales from #49 to #10, just behind joe mixon, just above david johnson.

thing is, it is 1) a small sample size, and 2) seems like we're all considering williams because of where he is, not who he is.

will carlos hyde split carries with dwilliams? based on what we know / offensive strategy, no. will hyde have at least a chance between now and september to earn #1 duties? sure, that's at least possible. will tyreek's impending suspension undermine the offense's overall inertia, including dwilliams'? maybe, maybe not. many believe mahomes is defense proof (unless he's in the super bowl). maybe the offense's success depends on who else is receiving, keeping defenses legit and preventing them from boxing out dwill and keeping him shut down on screens: so without tyreek, we have sammy watkins (who’ll be great for the 8 games he plays), sammie coates, demarcus robinson, marcus kemp, and the deceptively untalented gehrig dieter. not the cast of heroes to destroy defenses. still, will be funny to see defenses triple-team kelce and still have kelce dominating, shaking off defenders like he's playing against middle school kids.

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2 hours ago, OBJfor6 said:

Comparing these two on their careers, when you just admitted that a back with a higher proportion of carries would be less efficient on this metric, is very contradictory.

Simple thought experiment: What would D Williams points per touch look like if his proportion of rushes/receptions was roughly the same as Saquon's?

Saquon's rushes/reception = 261/91 = 2.87. You would have to add ~126 carries to D Williams' career totals to get to approximately this proportion (183 carries + 126 carries/108 receptions) = 2.86. Using his career averages, and with generous rounding on TDs, add 504 rushing yards and 5 TDs to his career totals. That's about an extra 80 fantasy points.

Take his new touch total/new fantasy points = (291+126)/(360+80) = 0.95 points per touch. Significantly different from above, clearly not on Saquon's level, but not too bad, either.

 

Now I don't think this quick and dirty thing above is the right way to think about this, but I just wanted to show that the metric you are using is flawed and will always over-inflate pass-catching backs with limited rushing involvement. Here's another example - your metric would say James White is the best RB in the league. Do you really believe that?

 

Here's a suggestion: Either look at points per rush and points per catch separately (safer) or come up with a more robust way of combining the two together with some sort of weighted average or scaling to limit how much your metric overvalues pass-catching backs (will always be a little flawed, but would at least be a lot better than what you are using now).

You are the one twisting numbers. You’re saying D Williams points per touch would be lower if he weren’t one of the best pass catching backs in the league. But he is. So it is. You can’t just erase that fact about him.

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6 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

You are the one twisting numbers. You’re saying D Williams points per touch would be lower if he weren’t one of the best pass catching backs in the league. But he is. So it is. You can’t just erase that fact about him.

 

This is the same damien William's that started 4 games for the dolphins in 2017 and got 1 recieving td and 0 rushing TDs  and finished the season with about 300 yards total then Kenyan drake came in and started to dominate the last 6 or 7 games of the season.

 

I like damien William's alot this year but these numbers can be tricky. We can find some stat or make up some stat and fiddle with it till it says "my guy is good" while I dont necessarily agree with you that damien is a fantasy stud (top 5 I think you said) these number would make me feel more comfortable about drafting him earlier. Thanks for the info

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25 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 You’re saying D Williams points per touch would be lower if he weren’t one of the best pass catching backs in the league. But he is. So it is. You can’t just erase that fact about him.

 

thank you

 

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