Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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Pump the brakes.

How would 1400 yards and 60 catches and 8 TDs sound? Good? Well, Carlos Hyde is just one year removed from those numbers on a team that started the season 1-10.

I don't understand how the fantasy football community can be unanimous that Carlos Hyde is a better RB than Damien Williams for 5-6 years and then immediately 100% change their minds because of 4-5 good games from Williams.

Hyde is a runner first who can catch the ball, while Williams is a receiver first who can run. It seems like a perfect scenario where Hyde gets 2/3 of the rushes and 1/3 of the catches while Williams does the reverse.

Right now Williams is being drafted 70 spots ahead of Hyde, and until that gap gets smaller, Hyde is the smarter play.

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On 4/16/2019 at 10:03 PM, andypro77 said:

It seems like a perfect scenario where Hyde gets 2/3 of the rushes and 1/3 of the catches while Williams does the reverse.

i'm not so sure that's the argument for the dwilliams fans here. one key point made in this thread is that the chiefs' RB will not be in a time share. so, the feature back---in being a big cog in a tight machine---will rock the rock. while i'm not the biggest damien williams fan, i do agree with this usage projection based on what we've seen from the chiefs' coaching staff. hyde may well be on the bench with little use when the season begins.

On 4/16/2019 at 10:03 PM, andypro77 said:

Right now Williams is being drafted 70 spots ahead of Hyde, and until that gap gets smaller, Hyde is the smarter play.

but if you're implying that a guy who recently enough netted "1400 yards and 60 catches and 8 TDs" (1288 yards, but who's counting), an RB who did this in one year and it's not so far behind damien williams' 5-year career total, and even not so far behind his college career total (discounting TDs), that this guy can earn the job from damien williams? if you're implying that, i can get behind it.

on one hand, williams does not have a lot of tread on his tires, despite being 27. on the other hand, some might say williams still has much to prove, that the sample size is too small. i'm still open-minded regarding how things will turn out, but i agree with you entirely: if williams is going in the 3rd round and hyde is firmly in round 9---74 picks later according to fantasy calculator half-PPR---i'm going hyde (and using my 3rd round pick on derrick henry).

 

 

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On 4/16/2019 at 11:03 PM, andypro77 said:

Pump the brakes.

How would 1400 yards and 60 catches and 8 TDs sound? Good? Well, Carlos Hyde is just one year removed from those numbers on a team that started the season 1-10.

I don't understand how the fantasy football community can be unanimous that Carlos Hyde is a better RB than Damien Williams for 5-6 years and then immediately 100% change their minds because of 4-5 good games from Williams.

Hyde is a runner first who can catch the ball, while Williams is a receiver first who can run. It seems like a perfect scenario where Hyde gets 2/3 of the rushes and 1/3 of the catches while Williams does the reverse.

Right now Williams is being drafted 70 spots ahead of Hyde, and until that gap gets smaller, Hyde is the smarter play.

 

Agreed. The more I look at it, the more I like Hyde.

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Posted (edited)

You’re forgetting that Hyde is not a good back. He is one of the worst pass pro backs in the league, is a terrible receiver, and has been below average as a runner in the last few years. He presents the team with nothing more than 1 year veteran insurance in a back up role alongside Darrel Williams. I think it is pretty likely the Chiefs pick up a mid-to-late round RB in the draft this year and ride Damien as the starter, then reevaluate the position next year and decide if they need to look for an earlier round back to be their future in the RB extravaganza that will be the 2020 draft, or if they can continue to proceed in 2020 with Damien, their 2019 pick, and Darrel as their RB core guys.

Edited by elroypedro
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7 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

You’re forgetting that Hyde is not a good back. He is one of the worst pass pro backs in the league, is a terrible receiver, and has been below average as a runner in the last few years. He presents the team with nothing more than 1 year veteran insurance in a back up role alongside Darrel Williams. I think it is pretty likely the Chiefs pick up a mid-to-late round RB in the draft this year and ride Damien as the starter, then reevaluate the position next year and decide if they need to look for an earlier round back to be their future in the RB extravaganza that will be the 2020 draft, or if they can continue to proceed in 2020 with Damien, their 2019 pick, and Darrel as their RB core guys.

Can we at least wait a week before anyone claims that something is “pretty  likely”...?

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12 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Can we at least wait a week before anyone claims that something is “pretty  likely”...?

“I think”

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16 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

You’re forgetting that Hyde is not a good back. He is one of the worst pass pro backs in the league, is a terrible receiver, and has been below average as a runner in the last few years.

just to remove opinion from the discussion, and to replace it with facts:

2018: carlos hyde bounced between two teams and was not good in either --- so you are correct

2017: carlos hyde earned 1288 yards and caught the ball 59 times; he ended the year RB #11 in fantasy points, #6 RB in receptions, tied for #6 in rushing TDs --- so you are the opposite of correct.

if we base his potential as a chief on 2018, he will not play; if we base his potential on 2017, he will earn a significant role. if we average the past two years, therein we have the _________.

 

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16 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

just to remove opinion from the discussion, and to replace it with facts:

2018: carlos hyde bounced between two teams and was not good in either --- so you are correct

2017: carlos hyde earned 1288 yards and caught the ball 59 times; he ended the year RB #11 in fantasy points, #6 RB in receptions, tied for #6 in rushing TDs --- so you are the opposite of correct.

if we base his potential as a chief on 2018, he will not play; if we base his potential on 2017, he will earn a significant role. if we average the past two years, therein we have the _________.

 

I watched every single game snap of the 49ers in 2017, as I do every year. Hyde was decidedly average as a runner, and incredibly bad as a receiver. He was peppered with usage and targets but put up ABYSMAL numbers in that situation in a Shanahan offense. So bad, that Shanahan immediately moved on from him at the end of 2017 and sought out McKinnon. In 2017, Breida outperformed Hyde majorly in every metric.

 

Here are Hyde’s 2017 receiving stats, for example:

 

88 targets, 59 receptions, 350 yards, 5.9 ypr, 0 TDs.

 

Historically, that is the worst performance OF ALL TIME for any RB in NFL history on that many targets. Yeah. That’s not good.

On top of that, he is one of the worst pass blockers currently in the league, and PFF ratings back that up. 

On top of that, he is two years removed from that one season that seemed good from him, although it was actually 3.9 ypc and 5.9 ypr on high usage and terrible pass blocking. Last year he was even worse. 

Dont know what you see in him but he isn’t a starting level back in the NFL by any stretch of the imagination.

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34 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

“I think”

You assume.

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It would be reckless for the Chiefs to not draft a rb that is at least as capable as T. Williams from A&M considering how affordable the rbs are this year.

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17 minutes ago, psygolf said:

It would be reckless for the Chiefs to not draft a rb that is at least as capable as T. Williams from A&M considering how affordable the rbs are this year.

 

Diddo. Even if they decide to roll with damien William's surely they will draft someone just for depth. Reid will probably try to get another later round gem like hunt. Like the darrin hall kid from Pittsburgh 

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8 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Diddo. Even if they decide to roll with damien William's surely they will draft someone just for depth. Reid will probably try to get another later round gem like hunt. Like the darrin hall kid from Pittsburgh 

i like it. hall should go late next week and should return the value. i can see the chiefs taking him with one of their round 6 picks, possibly even their round 7

 

 

or, they go with ohio state's mike weber late (round 5 / round 6). safe to say the chiefs take an RB between 4-7, though most likely we'll see 4 defensive players in the first four rounds (or 3 defense and 1 offensive lineman). if tyreek hill gets his suspension handed out before the draft, we can expect the chiefs to take a WR.

 

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On 4/18/2019 at 10:51 PM, elroypedro said:

Historically, that is the worst performance OF ALL TIME for any RB in NFL history on that many targets. Yeah. That’s not good.

I was not aware of that. Seems bad.

My participation on this thread is not so much to get people to snatch up Hyde, but rather to avoid Williams. I feel like an overlooked part of winning at fantasy football is avoiding total failure in the first few rounds. Last year I was warning everywhere I could that people should stay away from Alex Collins because picking him in rd 2 or rd 3 could ruin your season. And I believe the Alex Collins type season-ruiner might be Damien Williams.

I think people are seeing the potential that he was a Hunt-type season and becomes an awesome pick. But let's say he does produce a pretty good season. Right now on FF Calc he's going right ahead of Mike Evans. Assuming neither gets injured, which player is less likely to kill your team by not getting touches? For me, it's an easy choice.

In that same area of the ADP, you see Kelce, AB, Evans, Mahomes, Theilen, Ertz, and Hilton. Clearly, Williams inclusion in that group is a 'one of these things is not like the other' situation.

In short, for me he's a strong avoid at his current price. If he eventually settles near the Henry, A. Jones, Ingram, Freeman part of the mid to late 3rd, then maybe take a chance.

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21 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

I was not aware of that. Seems bad.

My participation on this thread is not so much to get people to snatch up Hyde, but rather to avoid Williams. I feel like an overlooked part of winning at fantasy football is avoiding total failure in the first few rounds. Last year I was warning everywhere I could that people should stay away from Alex Collins because picking him in rd 2 or rd 3 could ruin your season. And I believe the Alex Collins type season-ruiner might be Damien Williams.

I think people are seeing the potential that he was a Hunt-type season and becomes an awesome pick. But let's say he does produce a pretty good season. Right now on FF Calc he's going right ahead of Mike Evans. Assuming neither gets injured, which player is less likely to kill your team by not getting touches? For me, it's an easy choice.

In that same area of the ADP, you see Kelce, AB, Evans, Mahomes, Theilen, Ertz, and Hilton. Clearly, Williams inclusion in that group is a 'one of these things is not like the other' situation.

In short, for me he's a strong avoid at his current price. If he eventually settles near the Henry, A. Jones, Ingram, Freeman part of the mid to late 3rd, then maybe take a chance.

I actually agree with you. D Williams’ value is highly volatile. Not what I want out of a top few rounds pick in redraft. But I only play dynasty nowadays, where he is a clear buy at his low price point. People are getting him for as low as a mid to late 1st round pick, which is just bonkers seeing as he has the potential to be a league winner. Most players going at that price in dynasty are closer to equivalent to about 5-7th round redraft picks

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9 hours ago, elroypedro said:

I actually agree with you. D Williams’ value is highly volatile. Not what I want out of a top few rounds pick in redraft. But I only play dynasty nowadays, where he is a clear buy at his low price point. People are getting him for as low as a mid to late 1st round pick, which is just bonkers seeing as he has the potential to be a league winner. Most players going at that price in dynasty are closer to equivalent to about 5-7th round redraft picks

Does your league not value draft picks? It takes quite a bit to pry a first from what ive noticed.

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Does your league not value draft picks? It takes quite a bit to pry a first from what ive noticed.

This is what I've found as well.  In my league, I think the best I could get for Damien is likely an early 2nd.  And that's not worth me moving him for when I think he has clear Top-5 potential.

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

This is what I've found as well.  In my league, I think the best I could get for Damien is likely an early 2nd.  And that's not worth me moving him for when I think he has clear Top-5 potential.

That’s my point. He is a buy, not a sell.

 

DLF trade analyzer has him worth about equal to the 2019 1.10. That’s very low for the upside he presents. For a contending team, he’s more than worth the risk for that minor investment. For a rebuilding team probably not, as he has elite RB1 potential but likely only for a short window. 

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Posted (edited)

Was just checking on what teams have visited with what players and saw that beyond just perfunctory Combine visits, the Chiefs have only met or worked out two RBs: Dexter Williams and Alex Barnes. Neither of whom are graded out at NFL starter level backs. Seems like they are looking for late round guys after honing in on those two particular prospects at the position.

 

Other positions where they have shown more interest in players than they have in RBs, meeting with players several times or bringing them in for private visits and workouts:

CB

S

LB

DE

WR

 

Positions shown about equal interest in as RB:

OT

DL

TE

 

Dexter Williams(from the draft network):

“A smart runner who reads blocks well and rarely misses his gap, Williams' best traits are his vision and patience as a runner, allowing him to consistently get every inch that is blocked for him. The problem? He does almost nothing outside of structure, rarely breaking a tackle or showing any elusiveness in the open field. Williams' lack of impact as a receiver and pass protector have him looking at a rotational role early in his career, but in the right situation with a strong offensive line, he could be a productive back at the next level. Unfortunately there is a long list of running backs that fit that description, and nothing about Williams' skill set suggests he'll be uniquely impactful enough to be worth a high pick.

Round Grade: 4th Round”

Alex Barnes(from the draft network):

“Alex Barnes will be a notable rotational piece of an NFL backfield. While Barnes may not be an every down feature runner, he does offer some needed skills and will be given the chance to further develop and hone his craft. I like Barnes better in a gap/power system, where he can get vertical quickly and know where he is supposed to press his gaps as a means of minimizing any issues present with his vision or ability to process action in the backfield. Valued pass protection skills. 

Round Grade - Fifth Round”

 

Edited by elroypedro

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Posted (edited)

What I think the above shows is that KC is intending to spend their 1st(29), 2x2nds(61, 63), and their 3rd(92) on some combo of S, CB, DE, LB, and WR, as that is where many of the players they are showing interest in and having private visits/workouts with at those positions are valued. Whereas they are planning/hoping to invest in an RB after the 4th round(where they don’t have a pick), likely with their 5th round pick(167), because the main RBs they are showing interest in would be likely to be gone by their mid and late 6th round picks(201, 214). 

It is of course entirely possible that they draft players that they have shown limited interest in to now, or have only met once in a perfunctory manner ad never conducted a thorough interview with, but I believe the above analysis is the most likely outcome based on the FOs actions so far. 

Conclusion: continued good signs for Damien Williams, but nothing will be for sure until the draft actually happens. 

Edited by elroypedro

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I find a lot of the discussion here about Carlos Hyde to be a bit off.  I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction.  I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing.

Here's the 2017 Rotoworld RB rankings thread, in which Hyde is pretty consistently ranked in the top 10-15 of the entire NFL (for fantasy purposes).  

 

In the 2018 thread, no one seems to think he is a bad running back.  General consensus ranges seems to be in the "he's fine" category, with a few "greats" sprinkled in.

I realize this is not the optimum way to analyze a football player's talent.  But I do think it can illustrate recency bias for fantasy perspectives.  Hyde's situation was abysmal last year - pre-Mayfield Browns and a Jags team with Bortles that had basically thrown in the towel.  I guess we could fault him for not transcending all this.

My general point - football players generally don't change overnight.  Unless most people here thought Hyde was simply a volume-based back and simply didn't say it, there's a pretty good consensus on these boards that Hyde was a an acceptable NFL running back for fantasy for a number of years.  One year spent in the Sahara Desert of the NFL doesn't seem like a reasonable cause to change all those evaluations.

On the note of Hyde's pass-catching in 2017, I guess I just have to ask why a team with a presumably-forward thinking coach in Kyle Shanahan would continue to throw the ball to a player who is a historically bad receiver.  I understand that the final stats may not look pretty, but this is the equivalent of banging your head against the wall.  Hyde finished 5th in targets.  Was no one on SF wise enough to his inadequacies?  Maybe I'm missing something, but the narrative here doesn't add up for me.

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14 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

I find a lot of the discussion here about Carlos Hyde to be a bit off.  I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction.  I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing.

Here's the 2017 Rotoworld RB rankings thread, in which Hyde is pretty consistently ranked in the top 10-15 of the entire NFL (for fantasy purposes).  

 

In the 2018 thread, no one seems to think he is a bad running back.  General consensus ranges seems to be in the "he's fine" category, with a few "greats" sprinkled in.

I realize this is not the optimum way to analyze a football player's talent.  But I do think it can illustrate recency bias for fantasy perspectives.  Hyde's situation was abysmal last year - pre-Mayfield Browns and a Jags team with Bortles that had basically thrown in the towel.  I guess we could fault him for not transcending all this.

My general point - football players generally don't change overnight.  Unless most people here thought Hyde was simply a volume-based back and simply didn't say it, there's a pretty good consensus on these boards that Hyde was a an acceptable NFL running back for fantasy for a number of years.  One year spent in the Sahara Desert of the NFL doesn't seem like a reasonable cause to change all those evaluations.

On the note of Hyde's pass-catching in 2017, I guess I just have to ask why a team with a presumably-forward thinking coach in Kyle Shanahan would continue to throw the ball to a player who is a historically bad receiver.  I understand that the final stats may not look pretty, but this is the equivalent of banging your head against the wall.  Hyde finished 5th in targets.  Was no one on SF wise enough to his inadequacies?  Maybe I'm missing something, but the narrative here doesn't add up for me.

 

Hyde's pretty good when healthy, think most agree. 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

I find a lot of the discussion here about Carlos Hyde to be a bit off.  I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction.  I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing.

Here's the 2017 Rotoworld RB rankings thread, in which Hyde is pretty consistently ranked in the top 10-15 of the entire NFL (for fantasy purposes).  

 

In the 2018 thread, no one seems to think he is a bad running back.  General consensus ranges seems to be in the "he's fine" category, with a few "greats" sprinkled in.

I realize this is not the optimum way to analyze a football player's talent.  But I do think it can illustrate recency bias for fantasy perspectives.  Hyde's situation was abysmal last year - pre-Mayfield Browns and a Jags team with Bortles that had basically thrown in the towel.  I guess we could fault him for not transcending all this.

My general point - football players generally don't change overnight.  Unless most people here thought Hyde was simply a volume-based back and simply didn't say it, there's a pretty good consensus on these boards that Hyde was a an acceptable NFL running back for fantasy for a number of years.  One year spent in the Sahara Desert of the NFL doesn't seem like a reasonable cause to change all those evaluations.

On the note of Hyde's pass-catching in 2017, I guess I just have to ask why a team with a presumably-forward thinking coach in Kyle Shanahan would continue to throw the ball to a player who is a historically bad receiver.  I understand that the final stats may not look pretty, but this is the equivalent of banging your head against the wall.  Hyde finished 5th in targets.  Was no one on SF wise enough to his inadequacies?  Maybe I'm missing something, but the narrative here doesn't add up for me.

You are missing it, badly. To answer your question about Hyde and his usage in 2017:

 

In the final 5 games of the season, his targets halved. He had 49 receptions in the first 11 games. In the final 5, he had 10 receptions for 55 yards total. He was completely phased out of the passing game and then let walk by Shanahan shortly thereafter. 

 

Further, in the 49ers 10 losses that year, Hyde averaged 5.3 receptions. In their 6 wins, as he was being completely phased out of the pass game, he averaged exactly 2. 

 

Even more, he only scored in 5 games that year, mostly in garbage time, and never once, over 88 targets and 59 receptions, through the air. In 11 games, he didn’t score a touchdown, as a high volume RB with 240 carries and 88 targets. Yikes.

 

And, here are UDFA RB, and Carlos Hyde’s backfield teammate, Matt Breida’s receiving stats in limited usage in 2017: 36 targets, 21 receptions, 180 yards, 1 TD. 

 

Hyde averaged 3.9 ypc and 5.9 ypr in 2017. Breida averaged 4.4 ypc and 8.6 ypr in 2017.

 

On top of everything, Carlos Hyde graded out as the worst pass blocker in the league at the RB position for players with qualifying number of snaps. 

 

Youre barking up the wrong tree. 

Edited by elroypedro

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Hyde's pretty good when healthy, think most agree. 

No, he is not. He is a below average runner and is a low end level back up RB overall, somewhere in the 45-60 RB range as a talent. There are 1-2 RBs on every team in the league that are better than him.

 

These are the RBs in the last two years with significant usage that shared the backfield with Hyde and well outplayed him:

Breida, Chubb, Duke Johnson, Fournette, Yeldon

Edited by elroypedro
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