Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

pulling the anecdotal example from the overall sample is never a strong move 

 

edit: I will say this much; losing Hill is a much bigger drain on Damien's value than any of his direct competition for playing time. I imagine the box is going to get much more crowded than it was last year and that's unfortunate

You’re saying hi to the wrong end of the horse...it was Mahommes that lightened the box.

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Posted (edited)
On 4/23/2019 at 6:50 AM, elroypedro said:

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Dmb said that, which is provably wrong. Then when proved 100% wrong, his reaction is to laugh at a post.

He is just a troll, and like he says above, a bad one.

The ONLY reason for his above post about Carlos Hyde is either to troll this thread,

because it has been shown and proven beyond any doubt over and over again in this thread that Hyde is an awful,

below replacement level back. Or it is to mislead less informed readers here who haven’t read through the thread.

And then his response to getting called out is to laugh, clearly just cementing that he is trolling.

Again, why would he even post here if those are his motives and he presents ZERO content or analysis or anything else beneficial to this forum?

 

Pedro, are you in the belief that you know more about Hyde’s potential in this offense than KC? 

Edited by amirghanbariir

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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

Do you mean the same Spencer Ware that has played 42 games in his career, 40 of them for the Chiefs under Reid, and 19 of them as the starting RB for the Chiefs, yet has only gone over 20 fantasy points half ppr 2x? That Spencer Ware?

And are you comparing that to Damien Williams who went over 20 fantasy points half ppr in 4 out of 5 games started as a Chief last year? 

 

2 out of 19.

4 out of 5.

I take the second guy 100 out of 100.

 

Did I say Spencer Ware?  I meant Spencer Ware. . .🤣

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5 minutes ago, amirghanbariir said:

 

Pedro, are you in the belief that you know more about Hyde’s potential in this offense than KC? 

No. Hyde was signed to be a veteran insurance back up. I’m on exactly the same page as the KC front office and coaching staff, who have said this is Damien William’s starting role to lose.

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50 minutes ago, Joe Odam said:

pulling the anecdotal example from the overall sample is never a strong move 

 

edit: I will say this much; losing Hill is a much bigger drain on Damien's value than any of his direct competition for playing time. I imagine the box is going to get much more crowded than it was last year and that's unfortunate

Counterpoint: Damien ran his best and highest YPC against stacked boxes, and was fantastic in the RZ with short fields and stacked boxes as both runner and receiver.

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44 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You’re saying hi to the wrong end of the horse...it was Mahommes that lightened the box.

Wrong. You think Mahomes scares defenses nearly as much with a traditional wr that can be pressed on the line and/or not separate downfield? I’ll help you....no

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49 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Are you saying we should igore the small sample size of DW in KC and remember he hasn't done anything outside of that in his career since 2014? That maybe KC has a great system and a better RB can dethrone him as starting RB?

Damien Williams was very productive and efficient per touch even in the ghastly Miami offense where he was for those years. He averaged 1.19 fantasy points(.5ppr) per touch in Miami. In KC he did average 1.35.

 

Compare to some guys he shared the backfield with - Drake 1.09 in Miami. Hunt 0.99 in KC.

 

If given the touches as the starter in KC his history(not just last year in KC but also in Miami) suggests he will score at the rate of an elite RB1. His history specifically as the starter in KC to end last year and into the playoffs further backs up this claim.

 

 

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Just now, Joe Odam said:

Wrong. You think Mahomes scares defenses nearly as much with a traditional wr that can be pressed on the line and/or not separate downfield? I’ll help you....no

lol...ok.

Having a guy get open 50 yards down the field is worthless if you do not have a QB that can gun it there.

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Kansas City GM on Damien Williams:

"He certainly showed that at the end of last year," Veach told reporters. "He was a guy that we were able to acquire in the offseason last year and came in in the preseason and showed flashes. He just needed an opportunity, and when the opportunity presented itself, he kind of took it and ran with it. That's why we extended him. He's always been a talented player. He can run, catch, block, he can really do everything. He was great on special teams. But I would certainly say going into this offseason and going into the '19 season it's Damien's job to lose."

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8 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Damien Williams was very productive and efficient per touch even in the ghastly Miami offense where he was for those years. He averaged 1.19 fantasy points(.5ppr) per touch in Miami. In KC he did average 1.35.

 

Compare to some guys he shared the backfield with - Drake 1.09 in Miami. Hunt 0.99 in KC.

 

If given the touches as the starter in KC his history(not just last year in KC but also in Miami) suggests he will score at the rate of an elite RB1. His history specifically as the starter in KC to end last year and into the playoffs further backs up this claim.

 

 

That's because he was mostly used for receptions so of course those totals per touch are going to be inflated.

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22 minutes ago, psygolf said:

lol...ok.

Having a guy get open 50 yards down the field is worthless if you do not have a QB that can gun it there.

Not if the guy downfield has 2 of the 11 defenders following him. Guess what that opens up....I’ll wait 

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47 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

No. Hyde was signed to be a veteran insurance back up. I’m on exactly the same page as the KC front office and coaching staff, who have said this is Damien William’s starting role to lose.

 

Normally I don't feel the need to respond to trolling, but this is just getting silly.

On April 22, @elroypedro wrote:

"The ONLY reason for his above post about Carlos Hyde is either to troll this thread, because it has been shown and proven beyond any doubt over and over again in this thread that Hyde is an awful, below replacement level back. Or it is to mislead less informed readers here who haven’t read through the thread."

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/740033-damien-williams-2019-outlook/page/22/?tab=comments#comment-8502033

To review the facts - actual facts - Carlos Hyde was cut by the Jaguars on March 8.  On March 9, the Chiefs signed him to a one-year contract.  Notably, this took place before free agency opened on March 13, though in fairness we know teams are negotiating with players before the league new year date.

The problem with making stuff up is that it's hard to keep all the made-up stuff in line.  Are you really going to argue that Carlos Hyde is "an awful, below-replacement level back," while at the same time arguing the Chiefs signed him to be "veteran insurance back-up?"  Why on earth would the Chiefs do this?  Heck, they had lots to choose from JUST FOUR DAYS LATER when free agency opened.  Yet for some reason, the Chiefs moved rapidly to add a truly awful player to their roster.  At some point we have to ask ourselves - what exactly are the Chiefs thinking?

Then you go on to quote the Chiefs GM:

The GM who willingly rushed to sign a player who is truly awful, below replacement level, should now be trusted for his judgment on RBs?  That makes no sense at all.  By your own standard of evidence, the Hyde signing should call into question the Chiefs' ability to evaluate running backs.  Unless it makes sense from a football perspective to chase after "awful, below replacement level" players.

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Just want to remind folks...

2014: Charles > West > Ware

2015: Ware > Charles > Ware

2016: Ware

2017: Hunt

2018: Hunt > Ware > Williams

 

Revolving door if there ever was one.  2019: Williams and only Williams would be an exception and not the rule.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Just want to remind folks...

2014: Charles > West > Ware

2015: Ware > Charles > Ware

2016: Ware

2017: Hunt

2018: Hunt > Ware > Williams

 

Revolving door if there ever was one.  2019: Williams and only Williams would be an exception and not the rule.

why would you disrespect the great chachandrick West by not adding his name in years15-17? 🤣

Edited by dashoe

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1 hour ago, Joe Odam said:

Not if the guy downfield has 2 of the 11 defenders following him. Guess what that opens up....I’ll wait 

At least 8 guys to stack the box if the qb has a chicken arm.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

Normally I don't feel the need to respond to trolling, but this is just getting silly.

On April 22, @elroypedro wrote:

"The ONLY reason for his above post about Carlos Hyde is either to troll this thread, because it has been shown and proven beyond any doubt over and over again in this thread that Hyde is an awful, below replacement level back. Or it is to mislead less informed readers here who haven’t read through the thread."

http://forums.rotoworld.com/topic/740033-damien-williams-2019-outlook/page/22/?tab=comments#comment-8502033

To review the facts - actual facts - Carlos Hyde was cut by the Jaguars on March 8.  On March 9, the Chiefs signed him to a one-year contract.  Notably, this took place before free agency opened on March 13, though in fairness we know teams are negotiating with players before the league new year date.

The problem with making stuff up is that it's hard to keep all the made-up stuff in line.  Are you really going to argue that Carlos Hyde is "an awful, below-replacement level back," while at the same time arguing the Chiefs signed him to be "veteran insurance back-up?"  Why on earth would the Chiefs do this?  Heck, they had lots to choose from JUST FOUR DAYS LATER when free agency opened.  Yet for some reason, the Chiefs moved rapidly to add a truly awful player to their roster.  At some point we have to ask ourselves - what exactly are the Chiefs thinking?

Then you go on to quote the Chiefs GM:

The GM who willingly rushed to sign a player who is truly awful, below replacement level, should now be trusted for his judgment on RBs?  That makes no sense at all.  By your own standard of evidence, the Hyde signing should call into question the Chiefs' ability to evaluate running backs.  Unless it makes sense from a football perspective to chase after "awful, below replacement level" players.

 

This post makes ZERO sense. It is like you are responding to things other than what I have written, in depth stats and analysis that I have provided, or quotes that I have posted. 

 

In no way is it hypocritical to say that Hyde is a below replacement level back and to say he will be a veteran insurance back up RB. He will be in the mix with 1-2 other RBs to be a back up in KC. His career is almost over. He has been going downhill for multiple years and he turns 29 at the beginning of the season. He is on a one year contract. He is on his 4th different team in just over 1 year! All of his stats and metrics show that he is a well below average RB at this stage of his career, is in no way a starting level RB in the league, and is somewhere on the border of being a 2nd or 3rd string level RB in the league at this point. Which is where he was signed to play. Depth chart right now is: Damien Williams -> Carlos Hyde/Darrel Williams -> D Thompson or J Williams. The two rookies(or whichever makes the roster) have legitimate shots at jumping right into the mix with Hyde and Darrel Williams, or jumping right past them on the depth chart in camp or pre season. There is an outside chance the rookie that makes it could out play Damien Williams, and become the starter. There is essentially no chance that Hyde or Darrel Williams can do that, based on what we know about them.

 

The Chiefs GM told all of us straight up that Williams is the starter. It is a smart move to go out and sign a veteran back up RB for cheap for a year while also developing Darrel Williams as a back up and bringing in 1 or 2 other rookies to fit into the depth chart alongside or maybe even ahead of Hyde. Those two things are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they mesh well together, and what do you know, they are the reality that we are living in. 

 

So what is your contention? That Carlos Hyde is the starter? Or is even capable of producing anything relevant in a starting position in the NFL? Because that is patently ridiculous and as close to proven false as anything can be in this game. So what else are you trying to say? Anything useful, or smart, or even just based in reality at all?

Edited by elroypedro

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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

This post makes ZERO sense. It is like you are responding to things other than what I have written, in depth stats and analysis that I have provided, or quotes that I have posted. 

 

In no way is it hypocritical to say that Hyde is a below replacement level back and to say he will be a veteran insurance back up RB. He will be in the mix with 1-2 other RBs to be a back up in KC. His career is almost over. He has been going downhill for multiple years and he turns 29 at the beginning of the season. He is on a one year contract. He is on his 4th different team in just over 1 year! All of his stats and metrics show that he is a well below average RB at this stage of his career, is in no way a starting level RB in the league, and is somewhere on the border of being a 2nd or 3rd string level RB in the league at this point. Which is where he was signed to play. Depth chart right now is: Damien Williams -> Carlos Hyde/Darrel Williams -> D Thompson or J Williams. The two rookies(or whichever makes the roster) have legitimate shots at jumping right into the mix with Hyde and Darrel Williams, or jumping right past them on the depth chart in camp or ore season. There is an outside chance the rookie that makes it could put play Damien Williams, and become the starter. There is essentially no chance that Hyde or Darrel Williams can do that, based on what we know about them.

  

The Chiefs GM told all of us straight up that Williams is the starter. It is a smart move to go out and sign a veteran back up RB for cheap for a year while also developing Darrel Williams as a back up and bringing in 1 or 2 other rookies to fit into the depth chart alongside or maybe even ahead of Hyde. Those two things are not mutually exclusive. In fact, they mesh well together, and what do you know, they are the reality that we are living in. 

 

So what is your contention? That Carlos Hyde is the starter? Or is even capable of producing anything relevant in a starting position in the NFL? Because that is patently ridiculous and as close to proven false as anything can be in this game. So what else are you trying to say? Anything useful, or smart, or even just based in reality?

 

Simple question:  why would the Chiefs willfully move quickly to sign a below-replacement level back, when other RBs were available?

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1 minute ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

Simple question:  why would the Chiefs willfully move quickly to sign a below-replacement level back, when other RBs were available?

Because they wanted to get a cheap 1 year deal on a veteran back up for insurance going into draft season with only their starter and a 2nd year back up on the roster. 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Because they wanted to get a cheap 1 year deal on a veteran back up for insurance going into draft season with only their starter and a 2nd year back up on the roster. 

 

Why not sign a replacement-level player for cheap?

Edited by rschroeder1

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

Why not sign a replacement-level player for cheap?

That is cheap! I’m sorry if you are new to this stuff but that is very cheap. Hyde 1 year $2.8m.

 

Gore, almost dead sharing the backfield with McCoy Yeldon and Singletary, 1 year $2m.

 

Mike Davis, career backup, 3rd on the depth chart in Chi, 2 year $6m.

 

Peyton Barber 1 year $2.1m.

 

Peterson 2 year $5m.

 

 

Plus going off of contract capital and length tells you very little of the story of a RB or any player in the league unless that contract is a complete outlier. For example, Bell just signed 4 year $52m. Clearly, that ridiculous outlier of a contract tells us that he is the starter and bellcow. But does that mean that Gordon on a 5 year $16m deal isn’t? No, the circumstances of his contract are just way different. Or Alvin Kamara playing on a 4 year, $3.8m contract. Does that make him worse than Hyde, or have a backup job? No, just different circumstances again.

 

So try to get over thinking that a 1 year $2.8m contract means anything close to as much as Hyde’s stats, metrics, his tape, his extreme journeyman path this last year plus, or the GM and coaches words on the depth chart in KC. It doesn’t.

 

Edited by elroypedro

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

That is cheap! I’m sorry if you are new to this stuff but that is very cheap. Hyde 1 year $2.8m.

 

Gore, almost dead sharing the backfield with McCoy Yeldon and Singletary, 1 year $2m.

 

Mike Davis, career backup, 3rd on the depth chart in Chi, 2 year $6m.

 

Peyton Barber 1 year $2.1m.

 

Peterson 2 year $5m.

 

 

Plus going off of contract capital and length tells you very little of the story of a RB or any player in the league unless that contract is a complete outlier. For example, Bell just signed 4 year $52m. Clearly, that ridiculous outlier of a contract tells us that he is the starter and bellcow. But does that mean that Gordon on a 5 year $16m deal isn’t? No, the circumstances of his contract are just way different. Or Alvin Kamara playing on a 4 year, $3.8m contract. Does that make him worse than Hyde, or have a backup job? No, just different circumstances again.

 

So try to get over thinking that a 1 year $2.8m contract means anything close to as much as Hyde’s stats, metrics, his tape, his extreme journeyman path this last year plus, or the GM and coaches words on the depth chart in KC. It doesn’t.

 

 

1. People are wrong because their facts or evidence are insufficient.  I'm not right or wrong because "I'm new to this" or "I've been a football fan for 873 years."  Please attack the argument, not the person making the argument.

2. If Carlos Hyde is a "cheap veteran" because his cap hit is $2.73 million, with 5 years experience in the league, can you explain how Damien Williams, with a $1.73 million cap hit and 5 years experience in the league, is not also a "cheap veteran" but someone the Chiefs are head-over-heels committed to?  Does Williams' dead cap figure of $500,000 for 2020 not give you any pause, especially since you have great knowledge of how contracts work?

3. Can you, again, try to answer the question of why any NFL team, especially a team in its Super Bowl window, would actively add below replacement-level players?  Why would any team ever add a below replacement level player, when by definition, a replacement level player is available?  That's literally the definition of WAR.

4. Your use of language belies the weakness of your argument.  Describing Hyde's 2018 season as "extreme journeyman path" is a convenient way to ignore established facts.  In 2018, Hyde was on what amounted to a one-year contract, with no dead cap hit for 2019.  Do you understand why the Jaguars might have traded for a running back when their starting running back was lost for the season due to injury?  Do you further understand why it might make sense to trade for a player who they had no financial obligation to in 2019, when Fournette will presumably be back?  Did the Browns also draft a running back in Chubb who might be a really, really cheap player at that position for four years?  This is simple football economics.  In fact, it is probably the cause of future labor strife, since veteran players like Hyde are not realizing the big paydays down the road.  See the market for Le'Veon Bell.

5. if Hyde was an "extreme journeyman" because he was on a one-year contract in 2018, guess who else was on a one-year contract?  Damien Williams!  Had it not been for the Kareem Hunt video making its way public, Damien Williams was on pace for a grand total of 4 (FOUR!) (4!!!!!!!!!) carries for the 2018 season.  Yet somehow, Carlos Hyde on a one-year contract was actually used by the Browns, and then traded to a team that needed a running back, a team that moved forward by...playing Carlos Hyde at running back, somehow that makes him an extreme journeyman.  But Damien Williams, on a one-year contract, on pace for a season of 4 carries, is not labeled as an extreme journeyman?  Give me a break!

6. This also would certainly NOT be the definition of "extreme journeyman."  Williams was an undrafted free agent signed by the Dolphins.  After his third season, he entered restricted free agency, at which time the Dolphins placed the lowest possible level of tender on him.  As a restricted free agent, Williams received ZERO contract offers from the other 31 teams in the league.  He signed a one-year RFA deal with Miami, who then did not offer him a contract after the '17 season.  He signed a one-year deal with the Chiefs in his fifth year in '18.  But you're right, the journeyman is the guy drafted in the second round, who played out the entirety of his rookie contract, then signed a one-year deal in his fifth year.  Certainly, one-year contracts in a player's fifth year indicates journeyman status - just as long as you aren't Damien Williams.

7. Can you name who a replacement-level running back is?  Surely such a player exists, if you are certain that Hyde is a below replacement level?  I'll be fascinated to see who this person is.

Stop making things up.  That would help the discussion.

Edited by rschroeder1
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Shouldn't have gotten sucked in to this trolling.  Here are some football reasons why I have skepticism for Williams.  His sample size of games as the lead back is 5 games, 69 carries, 24 targets.

His TD rate (8 in 5 games) comes out to 25 per season - wholly unsustainable, given Hunt averaged 16 per 16 games with the Chiefs.

His 5.2 YPC in those five games would literally put him on the leaderboard of all time single-season YPC on Pro Football Reference.  Not sustainable.

He had more than 13 carries in only one of the five games (25 vs. Colts).

His yards per catch totaled 8.75 in those five games, compared to Hunt's 14.5 in '18.  I would guess the Chiefs would look for improvement in this area.

Williams passed the eye test for my uninformed eyes in '18 - he looked like a real RB, showed patience in choosing his holes, looked like a good route runner, etc.  However, I don't see how he could continue at the monster pace he was on, and the lack of commitment to his touches in the ground game gives me pause.

Count me in the "not sure what to think" camp.

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11 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

1. People are wrong because their facts or evidence are insufficient.  I'm not right or wrong because "I'm new to this" or "I've been a football fan for 873 years."  Please attack the argument, not the person making the argument.

 

Stop making things up.  That would help the discussion.

 

if more people would follow this process debates would be more interesting and less hostile.  . .or maybe less insteresting without the hostility 😂

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3 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

His 5.2 YPC in those five games would literally put him on the leaderboard of all time single-season YPC on Pro Football Reference.  Not sustainable.

 

 

I was your number one fan  😍until you introduced YPC as metric. . . 😖

Pet peeve of mine but no harm no foul carry on the good work💪

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

I was your number one fan  😍until you introduced YPC as metric. . . 😖

Pet peeve of mine but no harm no foul carry on the good work💪

 

Lol no worries, my personal opinion is that YPC gets to be skewed in small sample sizes.  My overall point is that we shouldn't expect Williams' production from a five game sample to be the norm.  Maybe it will be, but we shouldn't expect it.

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