Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

You still continue to lie. When Hyde signed a 3 year deal that is not a 1 year deal, it is explicitly a multi year deal. You’re a liar, and it may be connected with your admitted mental health problems or not, but it still isn’t forgivable here. 

 

And again, what is your point? Damien has been anointed the starter by KC, the stats and production in KC and per touch in Miami show he has the ability to be an elite RB1, and the stats and production for multiple years now for Hyde show he is incapable. 

 

So what are you arguing? And don’t lie and make things up now. Do you think Carlos Hyde is the starter in KC? 

No, it isn't. And he explained clearly why it was not. Any multi-year deal in the NFL without guaranteed money is not really a multi-year deal. This is known to anyone that has a basic understanding of how NFL contracts work as the poster you have quoted already stated.

Also, what is the purpose in calling that poster a liar and questioning his mental health? You complain about trolls, but all I have seen is you attacking other posters and responding to anyone who disagrees with you as a troll.

 

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

You still continue to lie. When Hyde signed a 3 year deal that is not a 1 year deal, it is explicitly a multi year deal. You’re a liar, and it may be connected with your admitted mental health problems or not, but it still isn’t forgivable here. 

 

And again, what is your point? Damien has been anointed the starter by KC, the stats and production in KC and per touch in Miami show he has the ability to be an elite RB1, and the stats and production for multiple years now for Hyde show he is incapable. 

 

So what are you arguing? And don’t lie and make things up now. Do you think Carlos Hyde is the starter in KC? 

 

Lying is definitely a symptom of depression.  One can't deny that!  I also am not seeking forgiveness from Rotoworld message boards.  If forgiveness exists, and you get it here, the world is truly a depressing place.

As to what I'm arguing, I'll quote myself from the first post I made in the Damien thread (all posts are publicly available, so no need to accuse me of lying).  Me:  "I offer this information as no slight to Damien Williams, nor to make any prediction.  I just find the narrative that "Carlos Hyde is a bad running back" to be perplexing."

 

 

I don't agree that Damien has been anointed the starter.  He may very well be the starter, but it is MY OPINION that offseason GM and coach-speak are not really worth relying on.  You are free to think otherwise.

I believe - MY OPINION - that KC's ranking of Williams as their third-string running back last year has to be taken into account - a running back they had zero plans of using (on pace for 4 carries for the entire season) before the Hunt debacle.  It would be rather odd for a team to switch its view of a player from "third string, never use" to "anointed starter" with RB1 fantasy potential (for our purposes).  It's possible, but I'm not sure why we should just accept that narrative without question.

The "stats and production in KC" are from a sample size of 5 games, 3 in the regular season, with a total of 69 carries and 24 receptions.  If you believe these are representative, the representative sample would be 1830 total yards, 76 catches, 25 TD.  This would be one of the all-time great running back seasons ever.  It is MY OPINION it is unlikely such a sample plays out over the long term.  Nor do I believe KC's management believes it will.

Williams never had more than 46 carries in a season, or more than 32 targets in a season, as a Dolphin.  I do not believe that we can extrapolate his stats and declare he would produce the same as a lead back.  Fresh legs are a factor for back-up running backs.

It is entirely possible that all 32 teams' evaluation of Williams has been wrong for five years.  However, I'm willing to believe that paid talent evaluators might know more than Internet posters.  To reiterate - no one drafted Williams.  If he displayed elite RB1 talent as a Dolphin, as an RFA in 2017, zero teams offered him a contract.  We must conclude that 31 teams failed to see elite RB1 talent right in front of them.  In '18, the Dolphins chose to let elite RB1 talent go rather than match a $1.25 million contract.  Likewise, the other 30 teams thought $1.25 million was too stiff to match for an elite RB1 talent.

The Chiefs owe Damien Williams $1.73 million.  If you think they are expecting 1830 yards, 76 catches and 25 touchdowns, this will be the single greatest contract in NFL history.

Damien Williams chose to accept the Chiefs' extension offer without even testing the UFA market.  This presents some pretty serious evidence that Damien Williams does NOT believe he is an elite RB1.

It's entirely possible that @elroypedro is a superior talent evaluator to NFL scouting departments.  I don't think it's likely, however.

 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

It literally is a multi-year deal. The other poster has lied and put words in my mouth multiple times in this thread. He brought up his mental health as an excuse for his actions. He is just a troll. He hasn’t added anything substantial or useful to this thread. He started name-calling and personal attacks in his posts before I called him out for his lying. 

This is such a colossal waste of time responding to this trolling, mentally ill, liar. Feel free to ignore good content and analysis and listen to him. You can ignore Damien Williams and draft Carlos Hyde, no skin off my back. You could also buy a bridge in Brooklyn that he has for sale. But don’t say there weren’t people here with more experience and knowledge, that weren’t liars and trolls, that offered actually good help and advice. 

 

If it is true that Hyde signed a multi-year deal with the Browns, how much money are they paying him this year?  NFL teams can't just cancel contracts...unless a player is owed no money.  If you want to deal with facts, simply state how much the Browns - or the Jags - are paying Hyde in '19.

If you want to claim they restructured the deal, link to the restructured deal.

If you want to claim the Chiefs are paying him from the Browns contract, then link to that contract.

If you want to claim they cut him, we know that happened.  Because there was no guaranteed money for '19 and '20.

If you are factually correct, simply provide the evidence of the facts, and the rest of us will stop.

Edited by rschroeder1

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6 hours ago, elroypedro said:

Kansas City GM on Damien Williams:

"He certainly showed that at the end of last year," Veach told reporters. "He was a guy that we were able to acquire in the offseason last year and came in in the preseason and showed flashes. He just needed an opportunity, and when the opportunity presented itself, he kind of took it and ran with it. That's why we extended him. He's always been a talented player. He can run, catch, block, he can really do everything. He was great on special teams. But I would certainly say going into this offseason and going into the '19 season it's Damien's job to lose."

 

Just to provide a different  interpretation, the  GM is not saying Damien is the starter, what he is saying is  he does not have the starting job locked up,  So it's easy to see that in TC and preseason Damien will COMPETE  for the starting job vs  be given the starting job just for lacing up his cleats.

if memory serves me right I dont recall the GM's for Barkley, zeke,Gurley,DJ,Bell ever publicly state that it's their job to lose. . 🤪

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19 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

. You could also buy a bridge in Brooklyn that he has for sale. 

 

 

WHAT! Holy Cow! How much?

Now you have my undivided attention I have am interest in buying this bridge!😂

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

 

WHAT! Holy Cow! How much?

Now you have my undivided attention I have am interest in buying this bridge!😂

 

You can use your new found wealth from the GM gig.

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I'm just interested in knowing who all on the KC staff was high enough on Hyde to sign him.

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45 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I'm just interested in knowing who all on the KC staff was high enough on Hyde to sign him.

Especially after some of his rushing lines last season. 22/62, 14/34, 13/36, 10/13.  10 receptions TOTAL on the year.  Yikes.

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11 hours ago, Joe Odam said:

I guess I'm not the only one with this take

 

I don't get the stats, why is the number 46? 

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28 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I don't get the stats, why is the number 46? 

Probably using some obscure parameters to fit their narrative 

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3 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Probably using some obscure parameters to fit their narrative 

 

Hyde caught 59 passes one year. If he was one of the worst pass catching backs in the league, he wouldn't get the opportunity to catch that many balls. The worst pass catching backs in the league have somewhere around 0 receptions, as they don't get thrown to. Team's will generally bring in a third down back for passing situations

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8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Hyde caught 59 passes one year. If he was one of the worst pass catching backs in the league, he wouldn't get the opportunity to catch that many balls. The worst pass catching backs in the league have somewhere around 0 receptions, as they don't get thrown to. Team's will generally bring in a third down back for passing situations

I'd also like to see what parameters people are using when saying a player is 50/50 in some category. Lots of ways to twist stats.

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18 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I'd also like to see what parameters people are using when saying a player is 50/50 in some category. Lots of ways to twist stats.

 

Well I've learned in this thread that Hyde is both the very worst pass catching back in the league, as well as the worst back in pass protection in the league. Amazing people keep giving him jobs.

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14 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Well I've learned in this thread that Hyde is both the very worst pass catching back in the league, as well as the worst back in pass protection in the league. Amazing people keep giving him jobs.

He also averaged an astonishingly poor yards per reception and led the league in drops. 

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2 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He also averaged an astonishingly poor yards per reception and led the league in drops. 

 

Maybe he is just an elite 'locker room' guy? Perhaps they just signed him to whisper words of encouragement to Damien.

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Hyde is a souped-up Spencer Ware.  And Hyde is not going to hurt any women or children.

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11 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He also averaged an astonishingly poor yards per reception and led the league in drops. 

 

What does this actually mean, though?  Hyde was 3rd in the NFL in RB targets (88).  According to this article from the Sacramento Bee, he dropped 9 passes, which led the league.  His drop rate was 1 drop for every 9.7 targets.  Yet his back-up, Matt Breida, dropped 6 passes that season on 36 targets, a rate of 1 drop every 6 targets.  Drop rate would probably be a better marker than total drops, due to volume.

Drop stats seem to be hard to find on the Internet, however.

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How are drops even counted? If it hits the players hands?

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12 minutes ago, rschroeder1 said:

 

What does this actually mean, though?  Hyde was 3rd in the NFL in RB targets (88).  According to this article from the Sacramento Bee, he dropped 9 passes, which led the league.  His drop rate was 1 drop for every 9.7 targets.  Yet his back-up, Matt Breida, dropped 6 passes that season on 36 targets, a rate of 1 drop every 6 targets.  Drop rate would probably be a better marker than total drops, due to volume.

Drop stats seem to be hard to find on the Internet, however.

He had the worst drop rate in the league that year at just over 13%. In addition, no rb allowed more qb pressures than Hyde. 

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4 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

How are drops even counted? If it hits the players hands?

 

Depends on what player your trying to make sound bad

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5 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

How are drops even counted? If it hits the players hands?

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/45689/what-constitutes-a-dropped-pass

Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information passed along the written standard our game charters rely upon to reduce subjectivity.

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

 

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1 minute ago, FollowTheLeader said:

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/45689/what-constitutes-a-dropped-pass

Hank Gargiulo of ESPN Stats & Information passed along the written standard our game charters rely upon to reduce subjectivity.

This standard says drops are "incomplete passes where the receiver SHOULD have caught the pass with ORDINARY effort."

Basically, we're talking about blatant drops, not the ones where your old man leans over and says anything that grazed the receiver anywhere was a drop in his day.

"Only use this if the receiver is 100 percent at fault and no one else can be blamed for the incompletion," ESPN tells its game charters. "Pass interference that wasn't called/passes thrown just outside the receiver's reach, etc., are NOT drops."

 

Still seems subjective. Do they have videos showing what they think are drops?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

 Do they have videos showing what they think are drops?

 

 

:lol: that poor kid...

j/k btw

 

9 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Still seems subjective.

 

...just gotta' trust the evaluators to only call the obvious :shrug:

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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