Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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19 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Redraft yes, dynasty no

 

Kerryon is 5 years younger so obviously in a dynasty but for the next 2 years Damien over Kerryon.

 

KC starting RB over DET starting RB is a no brainier.

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With Tyreek getting a Get Out of Jail Free card (for now), this probably moves Williams up another couple picks on the boards and he'll probably get as high as early to mid 2nd round, once pre-season is underway and the masses see more and more of him in preseason over Hyde, et al.  

 

Smoke 'em if ya got 'em, boys 😄

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20 minutes ago, jonasdash said:

With Tyreek getting a Get Out of Jail Free card (for now), this probably moves Williams up another couple picks on the boards

There are different schools of thought here that owners will use to justify their rankings.

A. Hill will take attention away from the running game and open up more opportunities for DW

B. Hill's presence will result in less opportunities for all other skill players on the KC offense, as he will now be the undisputed focal point

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2 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

There are different schools of thought here that owners will use to justify their rankings.

A. Hill will take attention away from the running game and open up more opportunities for DW

B. Hill's presence will result in less opportunities for all other skill players on the KC offense, as he will now be the undisputed focal point

 

I side with option (A)

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If there was another quality WR on KC, I would easily go with B for them. But they're still going to run the ball enough to not damage Williams' value, esp considering they will now have more sustained drives to do so. This is good news for Williams.

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2 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

There is no train of thought to me that Hill coming back hurts Damien Williams. Quite the opposite in fact.

 

right? people are really trying hard to find some negatives to this situation 

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5 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

right? people are really trying hard to find some negatives to this situation 

 

 

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I'd rather (insert any other Rd2 ADP) and James White in the 5th than Damien Williams and (insert any other Rd5 ADP).

 

Through 5 seasons, William's career high in Carries is 50 and his career high in Receptions is 23.  5 Seasons!!  Betting on him to return top 20 ADP value with that track record is a poor bet.  He's not Brian Westbrook, he's not even Kareem Hunt.  He's more akin to Charcandrick West or Spencer Ware.  There is a reason he was behind both of them in the pecking order prior to the barrage of KC injuries last year.  I know this is an unpopular take, but in Round 2 you need to secure a consistent foundation player.  Williams is a total gamble that could submarine your season if you proceed in the draft assuming you are secure with him as an RB1.  Drafting Hyde is an absolute must for any Williams owners as I'd assume he'd produce more in the run game, and reasonable enough in the pass game given the opportunity.

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7 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

I'd rather (insert any other Rd2 ADP) and James White in the 5th than Damien Williams and (insert any other Rd5 ADP).

 

Through 5 seasons, William's career high in Carries is 50 and his career high in Receptions is 23.  5 Seasons!!  Betting on him to return top 20 ADP value with that track record is a poor bet.  He's not Brian Westbrook, he's not even Kareem Hunt.  He's more akin to Charcandrick West or Spencer Ware.  There is a reason he was behind both of them in the pecking order prior to the barrage of KC injuries last year.  I know this is an unpopular take, but in Round 2 you need to secure a consistent foundation player.  Williams is a total gamble that could submarine your season if you proceed in the draft assuming you are secure with him as an RB1.  Drafting Hyde is an absolute must for any Williams owners as I'd assume he'd produce more in the run game, and reasonable enough in the pass game given the opportunity.

What is this??!! A reasonable fantasy owner with a memory that expands past December of 2018?? It can’t be. I thought this species was extinct. 

100% agree with just about all of this. 

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15 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

I'd rather (insert any other Rd2 ADP) and James White in the 5th than Damien Williams and (insert any other Rd5 ADP).

 

Through 5 seasons, William's career high in Carries is 50 and his career high in Receptions is 23.  5 Seasons!!  Betting on him to return top 20 ADP value with that track record is a poor bet.  He's not Brian Westbrook, he's not even Kareem Hunt.  He's more akin to Charcandrick West or Spencer Ware.  There is a reason he was behind both of them in the pecking order prior to the barrage of KC injuries last year.  I know this is an unpopular take, but in Round 2 you need to secure a consistent foundation player.  Williams is a total gamble that could submarine your season if you proceed in the draft assuming you are secure with him as an RB1.  Drafting Hyde is an absolute must for any Williams owners as I'd assume he'd produce more in the run game, and reasonable enough in the pass game given the opportunity.

 

Williams was coached by Adam Gase in Miami

 

Now he is coached by Andy Reid.

 

Not sure what else there is to be said. If you keep citing Williams limited useage in Miami then I will keep pointing out how Adam Gase is and was a terrible suppressor of NFL talent

 

Andy Reid has called Damien willia.s the starting RB. The KC starting RB is a no brainier RB1 and should be drafted as such.

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1 hour ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

B. Hill's presence will result in less opportunities for all other skill players on the KC offense, as he will now be the undisputed focal point

You mean like he was last year when Damien averaged 18 touches per game, 100 yards and had 8 combined tds in six games?  Sign me up!

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12 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Williams was coached by Adam Gase in Miami

Now he is coached by Andy Reid.

Not sure what else there is to be said. If you keep citing Williams limited useage in Miami then I will keep pointing out how Adam Gase is and was a terrible suppressor of NFL talent

This is the laziest possible rebuttal to the point about Williams’ past and the fact that this continues to be your only response proves that you need to try harder. 

Not to mention how many legendary and/or stellar fantasy seasons have been produced under Gase’s tutelage. Are you new or are you simply under the impression that Gase’s career started in Miami? 

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Williams was coached by Adam Gase in Miami

 

Now he is coached by Andy Reid.

 

Not sure what else there is to be said. If you keep citing Williams limited useage in Miami then I will keep pointing out how Adam Gase is and was a terrible suppressor of NFL talent

 

Andy Reid has called Damien willia.s the starting RB. The KC starting RB is a no brainier RB1 and should be drafted as such.

 

Whoever his coach is or was, there is no historical indicator that Williams will last, let alone produce, with a bell cow workload.

 

I can name no less than 50 3rd Down backs who have looked good when forced into a larger role for a small sample of games.  I can't name a single one who then morphed into a full time workhorse in his 6th NFL season.  He's in a great offense, no doubt, and should produce when available and given an opportunity.  But his pedigree is not there to hold off any competition if they show signs of doing the same or better.  That's if he even remains durable/healthy.

 

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4 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

This is the laziest possible rebuttal to the point about Williams’ past and the fact that this continues to be your only response proves that you need to try harder. 

Not to mention how many legendary and/or stellar fantasy seasons have been produced under Gase’s tutelage. Are you new or are you simply under the impression that Gase’s career started in Miami? 

 

Sorry you don't like the explanation but it's true.

 

Gase was a decent OC but he was a nightmare of a head coach. He let his ego dictate his decisions. 

 

We can agree to disagree. I'm fine with that. I'll go with what Williams did with Reid in KC over anything he did under Gase in miami

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3 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Whoever his coach is or was, there is no historical indicator that Williams will last, let alone produce, with a bell cow workload.

 

I can name no less than 50 3rd Down backs who have looked good when forced into a larger role for a small sample of games.  I can't name a single one who then morphed into a full time workhorse in his 6th NFL season.  He's in a great offense, no doubt, and should produce when available and given an opportunity.  But his pedigree is not there to hold off any competition if they show signs of doing the same or better.  That's if he even remains durable/healthy.

 

 

So you are afraid of injury and not talent?

 

So it's not possible to go under the radar while on the worst team in football till you get chance to start for the best offense in football?

 

Dion Lewis went from a part timer to having some great years with NE. A great offense can make for great fantasy stats from the RB

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5 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Whoever his coach is or was, there is no historical indicator that Williams will last, let alone produce, with a bell cow workload.

 

I can name no less than 50 3rd Down backs who have looked good when forced into a larger role for a small sample of games.  I can't name a single one who then morphed into a full time workhorse in his 6th NFL season.  He's in a great offense, no doubt, and should produce when available and given an opportunity.  But his pedigree is not there to hold off any competition if they show signs of doing the same or better.  That's if he even remains durable/healthy.

 

Michael Turner is the only one I can think of, but he may be more of an exception rather than the rule. 

 

I was in on Williams at the 2-3 turn but now that he's looking like a lock to be in picks 16-22 it seems a little less alluring.

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1 minute ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

So you are afraid of injury and not talent?

 

So it's not possible to go under the radar while on the worst team in football till you get chance to start for the best offense in football?

 

Dion Lewis went from a part timer to having some great years with NE. A great offense can make for great fantasy stats from the RB

 

I think he's a fine enough 3rd down back.  Nowhere near talented enough, nor durable, to reasonably think he'll stay healthy for 250+ touches.  I think Hyde is likely more durable for the ground game, and the rookie speedster they drafted could be equally or more explosive in the pass game (albeit not as good a blocker).  So to assume just because Williams produced admirably (when KC was down to literally no healthy backs on the roster aside from him) that it will give him all sorts of tenure and job security to withstand any competition, if he miraculously remains durable/healthy, is not a bet I want to make with a 2nd round fantasy pick.

I believe less in his durability, than I do in his talent, but the combination of the two is a ticking time bomb with a 2nd Round pick.

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When was the last time Andy Reid had a poor fantasy RB.. or just poor RB play in general?

Sometimes it's that simple. 

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5 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I think he's a fine enough 3rd down back.  Nowhere near talented enough, nor durable, to reasonably think he'll stay healthy for 250+ touches.  I think Hyde is likely more durable for the ground game, and the rookie speedster they drafted could be equally or more explosive in the pass game (albeit not as good a blocker).  So to assume just because Williams produced admirably (when KC was down to literally no healthy backs on the roster aside from him) that it will give him all sorts of tenure and job security to withstand any competition, if he miraculously remains durable/healthy, is not a bet I want to make with a 2nd round fantasy pick.

I believe less in his durability, than I do in his talent, but the combination of the two is a ticking time bomb with a 2nd Round pick.

 

Interesting take.

 

It is also interesting how Reid prefers an all purpose RB. His coaching history bares that out. It would be a new development for Reid if he were to deploy a full blown timeshare at RB although I do agree that Damien will cede some carries to Hyde to keep him fresh I think the starting RB for Reid in KC who is gonna get around 15-18 touches a game is well worth a 2nd round adp.

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6 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I think he's a fine enough 3rd down back.  Nowhere near talented enough, nor durable, to reasonably think he'll stay healthy for 250+ touches.  I think Hyde is likely more durable for the ground game, and the rookie speedster they drafted could be equally or more explosive in the pass game (albeit not as good a blocker).  So to assume just because Williams produced admirably (when KC was down to literally no healthy backs on the roster aside from him) that it will give him all sorts of tenure and job security to withstand any competition, if he miraculously remains durable/healthy, is not a bet I want to make with a 2nd round fantasy pick.

I believe less in his durability, than I do in his talent, but the combination of the two is a ticking time bomb with a 2nd Round pick.

 

How do you know hes not durable enough? Hes only been Injured once in his football career and he is listed over 220lbs on both nfl.com and the chiefs roster. Hyde however has been injured as much as any rb in the league. I 

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1 hour ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

I'd rather (insert any other Rd2 ADP) and James White in the 5th than Damien Williams and (insert any other Rd5 ADP).

 

Through 5 seasons, William's career high in Carries is 50 and his career high in Receptions is 23.  5 Seasons!!  Betting on him to return top 20 ADP value with that track record is a poor bet.  

I don't know about any specific ADP value, but comparing his past situation(s) to his situation now is night and day ridiculous. A merely competent RB in this situation should do well.

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

How do you know hes not durable enough? Hes only been Injured once in his football career and he is listed over 220lbs on both nfl.com and the chiefs roster. Hyde however has been injured as much as any rb in the league. I 

 

I don't know that.  Would be nice to have some type of indicator that he was going on year 6 in the NFL.  Seems like a heck of a gamble to predict for a top 20 pick.

 

It's a guy who in 7 years of a football career has carried the ball a total of 470 times, including 175 (2012) and 113 (2013) in his 2 years of college.

 

Tarik Cohen for reference, rushed the ball 656 times in his college career alone.  This isn't Tarik Cohen, this is a total Jag the entire decade, and any break out would be a statistical outlier and not worthy of a top 20 Fantasy bet.

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I actually really like Williams, but I think a top 20 pick is begging for disappointment. There’s a chance he performs that well, I can see it pretty easily. That’s risky for a career back up though. I’m out anytime before pick 25. 

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21 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I don't know that.  Would be nice to have some type of indicator that he was going on year 6 in the NFL.  Seems like a heck of a gamble to predict for a top 20 pick.

 

It's a guy who in 7 years of a football career has carried the ball a total of 470 times, including 175 (2012) and 113 (2013) in his 2 years of college.

 

Tarik Cohen for reference, rushed the ball 656 times in his college career alone.  This isn't Tarik Cohen, this is a total Jag the entire decade, and any break out would be a statistical outlier and not worthy of a top 20 Fantasy bet.

 

Fair enough but to call hyde more durable than William's would seem like a stretch at the least. William's doesnt have a track record to follow but he isnt small and to me he isn't scat back hes just fast. Just ask derwin James (a notable hard hitting safety who was ran right over by damien)

He might not be worthy of the top 20 gamble (it's a bit pricey for me too) but I believe your classifying him all wrong. He may be a JAG but hes a JAG with Andy reid pat mahomes and tyreke hill and a bad defense. Just my opinion tho. We can agree to disagree.

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