Joe Odam

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook

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And by the way, Williams is talented.  His speed metrics are 90th+ percentile, and he is great in the passing game.  Reid and Mahomes create more space than any other team, those two things alone make his profile a great fit in this offense.  And he's got just enough size power to be sufficient between the tackles.  Not like he's Tarik Cohen small, and it's not like KC loads tons of carries on its RBs anyways.

 

He's not a traditional bell cow running back.  Doesn't need to be.  Watch the games.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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7 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Barkley, Gurley, Zeke, CMC, Kamara, Gordon.  Only players I think you have to take ahead of Williams, *assuming FA/Draft cements his role.

 

I'd hear arguments for Chubb, Conner, Mixon, Hopkins, Adams, Tyreek, Thomas, and Julio.  AB if he stays.  Probably forgetting a player or two, but Williams should slide right into this late first / early second bunch.  I don't wanna hear about "career journeyman" or "JAG".  Watch the games.  This is fantasy football where situation counts for just as much as talent and if you haven't figured that out yet then that's too bad for you.

 

* Should we even have to qualify this any more?  It's so obvious that it's a waste of words.

 

Guys that you'd be absolutely nuts to pass up for Damien Williams:

Hopkins

Adams

Thomas

Leveon

Conner

Juju

OBJ

Thielen

 

I consider those not even debatable.  There are probably 10 other guys I'd like to add, but for the sake of attempting to be objective I won't include.  Are people saying Kareem Hunt is just completely replaceable, and you can insert Williams into his projections, and that he is a 1st Round ADP?  Because if the Hunt thing never happened I think the above comment made about Kareem Hunt is reasonable.  For Damien Williams, I've beat this to death, but there is just no chance he matches Hunt's production and there is no track record of him even being able to do so for an extended period.  He hasn't touched the ball 200 times since 2013 in college.  That's 7 or 8 games in an Andy Reid system.  His 80+ touches this season are his most since 2014 in college.

 

As I've stated before I believe taking him with your first 2 picks is just fantasy suicide, but taking him with your 1st is just embarrassing IMO.

 

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30 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

And by the way, Williams is talented.  His speed metrics are 90th+ percentile, and he is great in the passing game.  Reid and Mahomes create more space than any other team, those two things alone make his profile a great fit in this offense.  And he's got just enough size power to be sufficient between the tackles.  Not like he's Tarik Cohen small, and it's not like KC loads tons of carries on its RBs anyways.

 

He's not a traditional bell cow running back.  Doesn't need to be.  Watch the games.

 

 

Situation trumps talent in fantasy.  .exhibit A  is  DJ.

The question I would start with is what's the value of a KC rb  in an offense where Mahomes is ascending into his 2nd yr as a starter and can torch you with his arm? 

Do you trust Reid to use his rb as he has in the past?

I'm not confident about the predicting the touches on this offense for a rb next season with kelce-hill-  healthy watkins and a QB who rarely  dumpoffs to the rb and can score with his arm in less than 1min.

I can't rationalize a 1st rd pick

Edited by dashoe

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24 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Guys that you'd be absolutely nuts to pass up for Damien Williams:

Hopkins

Adams

Thomas

Leveon

Conner

Juju

OBJ

Thielen

 

I consider those not even debatable.

 

Not debatable with someone who takes pride in ignorance perhaps.

 

15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The question I would start with is what's the value of a KC rb  in an offense where Mahomes is ascending into his 2nd yr as a starter and can torch you with his arm? 

Do you trust Reid to use his rb as he has in the past?

 

I trust Reid to continue to churn out fantasy RB1s like he always has.  I don't think Mahomes moving from year 1 to year 2 will suddenly change that.  In fact if anything it produces more offense and scoring opportunities for the RB, which will always have an important role in Reid's offense.  To be frank I think your imagination is getting the better of you here.

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31 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Guys that you'd be absolutely nuts to pass up for Damien Williams:

Hopkins

Adams

Thomas

Leveon

Conner

Juju

OBJ

Thielen

 

I consider those not even debatable.  There are probably 10 other guys I'd like to add, but for the sake of attempting to be objective I won't include.  Are people saying Kareem Hunt is just completely replaceable, and you can insert Williams into his projections, and that he is a 1st Round ADP?  Because if the Hunt thing never happened I think the above comment made about Kareem Hunt is reasonable.  For Damien Williams, I've beat this to death, but there is just no chance he matches Hunt's production and there is no track record of him even being able to do so for an extended period.  He hasn't touched the ball 200 times since 2013 in college.  That's 7 or 8 games in an Andy Reid system.  His 80+ touches this season are his most since 2014 in college.

 

As I've stated before I believe taking him with your first 2 picks is just fantasy suicide, but taking him with your 1st is just embarrassing IMO.

 

With everything you that you presented above, we’re going to go ahead and assume he’s sitting solidly as their rb1 to start the season with no rb threat around him...now half of your list becomes laughable.

Edited by psygolf

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5 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Not debatable with someone who takes pride in ignorance perhaps.

 

 

I trust Reid to continue to churn out fantasy RB1s like he always has.  I don't think Mahomes moving from year 1 to year 2 will suddenly change that.  In fact if anything it produces more offense and scoring opportunities for the RB, which will always have an important role in Reid's offense.  To be frank I think your imagination is getting the better of you here.

 

The question is not  would he be a rb1 the question is do you spend a 1st rd pick on him:lol:

 

Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions.

- Albert Einstein
 

Edited by dashoe

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Not debatable with someone who takes pride in ignorance perhaps.

 

 

Haha, I've been told to stop debating it because "we get it", and now I'm called ignorant for not debating.  Can we get back on track to the point of people honestly considering taking Damien Williams with their first round pick and how crazy that is?

 

Just now, psygolf said:

With everything you that you presented above, we’re going to go ahead and assume he’s sitting solidly as their rb1 to start the season with no rob threat around him...now half of your list becomes laughable.

 

How is anyone on that list "laughable"?  Those are all solid 1st round picks.

 

There will never not be a threat around him as long as the Chiefs roster other running backs.  With Spencer Ware and some other undrafted free agent RB as his competition, this is/was the best it will ever get for him.  The coach turned into a pumpkin Sunday night.

 

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

The question is not  would he be a rb1 the question is do you spend a 1st rd pick on him:lol:

 

Like I mentioned, I think he's in a tier of guys you could reasonably take late first to early second.

 

You mentioned Mahomes ascension as a potential reason to back off.  I'm saying I think that point should have no bearing on his price tag.  It should help if anything.

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

now I'm called ignorant for not debating

 

No, I called you ignorant because you said "it's not debatable" to take take Kirk Cousins' WR1, who eclipsed 10 fantasy points only one time in his last 8 games, over KC's RB1, who never once scored under 11 points in his 6 games as a starter.

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

No, I called you ignorant because you said "it's not debatable" to take take Kirk Cousins' WR1, who eclipsed 10 fantasy points only one time in his last 8 games, over KC's RB1, who never once scored under 11 points in his 6 games as a starter.

 

Funny that you took a 6 or 8 game sample size in your argument, since that's the basis of Damien Williams entire 5 year career.

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Funny that you took a 6 or 8 game sample size in your argument, since that's the basis of Damien Williams entire 5 year career.

 

It's the entire sample size in his current situation -- starting running back for the best offense in football.  

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Just now, Lord_Varys said:

 

Like I mentioned, I think he's in a tier of guys you could reasonably take late first to early second.

 

You mentioned Mahomes ascension as a potential reason to back off.  I'm saying I think that point should have no bearing on his price tag.  It should help if anything.

 

When you have a QB like Mahommes it completely changes what the OC does with an offense.

I think differently where it can have a negative effect on the running game in terms of less utiliaztion an example is tampa putting up a ton of points with big plays through the air and very little  scoring work for the rb.  

Reid disciples  Pederson/Nagy dont feature a single rb in their offense or Reid can borrow some of belicheck's rbbc game situation playbook

The fact we are having his discussion is proof that there is a lot of unknown and inability to reliably predict what the role of the  KC rb will be next season.

 

So I don't spend 1st rd draft capital on a player with a lot of question marks around his situation

 

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2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

It's the entire sample size in his current situation -- starting running back for the best offense in football.  

 

you took the only productive month of a player's entire 5 year career and are extrapolating that over 16 games without hesitation.  This thread reminds me so much of the Kevin Kolb thread from like 5 or 7 years ago, where Yahoo projected him for 5,000 yards and like 35TD, and everyone ate it up despite him being a total barf, but he had a great "situation".

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

When you have a QB like Mahommes it completely changes what the OC does with an offense.  I think differently where it can have a negative effect on the running game in terms of less utiliaztion an example is tampa putting up a ton of points with big plays through the air and very little  scoring work for the rb.  

 

First, I want to point out that Tampa over the last few years (don't have the exact number) has had the lowest Fantasy RB output of any team in the NFL.  KC since Reid has arrived is perennially top ten.

 

But, I respect your point.  Reid with Mahomes could morph to become even more pass happy, with even less RB carries.

 

To that I'd say that it doesn't really matter.

 -- KC averaged 24 rush attempts per game in 2018.  24th in the league (so bottom 10)

 -- KC averaged 24.8 in 2017.  Also was 24th in the league.

 -- None of that mattered for the starting RB who put up top 5 numbers, regardless of who it was.  Because RBs are always involved in the passing game, and the offense scores more points than anyone, which puts RBs in position for red zone rushes and rushing TDs.

 -- Reid's not going to flip a switch and crater from 24 attempts to less than 20 per game, which would put them at the very bottom.  It will be a gradual evolution, and even if it is, the RB's still going to get plenty of targets.

 

It doesn't matter because Reid has always used his running backs in the passing game, and this offense will continue to score as many touchdowns as any other.  That's good for the running back.

 

Quote

Reid disciples  Pederson/Nagy dont feature a single rb in their offense or Reid can borrow some of belicheck's rbbc game situation playbook.

 

First, Reid is not Pederson or Nagy.  

 

Second, maybe they'd feature a guy if they had a guy worth featuring.

 

Third, Reid uses a committee too.  He always has.  The Chiefs RB2 scored a touchdown I think in every game except the conference championship since Hunt was suspended.  But the leader of the committee is good for 14+ high quality rushing attempts, and plenty of targets, every week.

 

Finally, if you think Reid is suddenly going to become Bellichick, well, again I think that's just your imagination.  ;)

 

Quote

The fact we are having his discussion is proof that there is a lot of unknown and inability to reliably predict what the role of the  KC rb will be next season.  So I don't spend 1st rd draft capital on a player with a lot of question marks around his situation

 

You're having the discussion (lol).  I'm just trying to say that it's not really a discussion worth having.  I could tell everyone the sky is gonna fall, but I can't use the fact that I'm talking about the sky falling as further evidence that the sky might in fact fall.   Reid's RB1 has been a fantasy stud for as long as I can remember, going back even to Philly.  The odds it suddenly changes are so small it's not worth worrying about. 

 

 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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11 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

you took the only productive month of a player's entire 5 year career and are extrapolating that over 16 games without hesitation.  This thread reminds me so much of the Kevin Kolb thread from like 5 or 7 years ago, where Yahoo projected him for 5,000 yards and like 35TD, and everyone ate it up despite him being a total barf, but he had a great "situation".

 

I can't speak for all the idiots who took Kolb high and passed on Mike Vick, but I plan to take Williams' handcuff just in case.

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38 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Not debatable with someone who takes pride in ignorance perhaps.

 

 

I trust Reid to continue to churn out fantasy RB1s like he always has.  I don't think Mahomes moving from year 1 to year 2 will suddenly change that.  In fact if anything it produces more offense and scoring opportunities for the RB, which will always have an important role in Reid's offense.  To be frank I think your imagination is getting the better of you here.

 

Are we acting like Williams is now in the discussion as a mid first round pick!? I like his upside but there is a lot of risk there even if they only bring in a #2 that plays on third downs (every #1 in KC was replaced on 3rd downs this year, even Hunt).

 

It's not even a question to take the following players over Williams:

Nuk, Adams, Thomas, AB (trade could change that), Hill, Julio, Conner

 

Call me crazy but those guys are much safer then Williams and have similar ceilings. IMO it's critical to avoid a bust with your early picks. You usually can't win your league in the first two rounds but you can def lose it.

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3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

 

 

You're having the discussion (lol).  I'm just trying to say that it's not really a discussion worth having.  I could tell everyone the sky is gonna fall, but I can't use the fact that I'm talking about the sky falling as further evidence that the sky might in fact fall.   Reid's RB1 has been a fantasy stud for as long as I can remember, going back even to Philly.  The odds it suddenly changes are so small it's not worth worrying about. 

 

 

 

Once again, the discussion is not is a KC rb a potential rb1 the question is do u spend 1st rd capital on one given the unknowns with the position this year.

You keep debating something that is not being argued. :lol:

 

TC 2019 and assume the KC roster is damien+ware+ 3rd round rookie or an FA like CJA

 

Are u still going to gamble your 1st rd pick on Damien?

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2 minutes ago, FISH20 said:

 

Are we acting like Williams is now in the discussion as a mid first round pick!? I like his upside but there is a lot of risk there even if they only bring in a #2 that plays on third downs (every #1 in KC was replaced on 3rd downs this year, even Hunt).

 

It's not even a question to take the following players over Williams:

Nuk, Adams, Thomas, AB (trade could change that), Hill, Julio, Conner

 

Call me crazy but those guys are much safer then Williams and have similar ceilings. IMO it's critical to avoid a bust with your early picks. You usually can't win your league in the first two rounds but you can def lose it.

 

Late first, early second isn’t unreasonable. That’s where Hunt was going this year. There’s still a lot of unknowns right now, but if Damien Williams is the number 1 going into the season, i’d have no problem taking him there.

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3 minutes ago, FISH20 said:

It's not even a question to take the following players over Williams:

Nuk, Adams, Thomas, AB (trade could change that), Hill, Julio, Conner

 

In a standard draft you could raise a question about Williams over any of those guys.

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Williams did a nice job coming in as the 3rd string RB and producing. That said, I highly doubt the Chiefs are going into 2019 thinking Williams will be "the guy". They'll likely sign and/or draft someone.  People talking about drafting him in the first round have lost their minds. 

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

TC 2019 and assume the KC roster is damien+ware+ 3rd round rookie or an FA like CJA

Are u still going to gamble your 1st rd pick on Damien?

 

Barkley, Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, CMC, Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, Tyreek, Chubb, Conner....  yeah probably taking Williams 12th right there in a standard league, then grabbing Ware late.

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1 minute ago, fletch44 said:

They'll likely sign and/or draft someone.  People talking about drafting him in the first round have lost their minds. 

 

All this discussion is around if they don't add anyone.

 

If they don't add anyone... then if you don't even consider him at the 1/2 turn of a standard league then you're doing it wrong.

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Barkley, Gurley, Zeke, Kamara, CMC, Gordon, Adams, Hopkins, Tyreek, Chubb, Conner....  yeah probably taking Williams 12th right there in a standard league, then grabbing Ware late.

 

Id take damien ahead of Gordon and conner and adams..... Ppr of course...

 

 

gordon cant last a season, conner looks like he cant either and adams is 2nd round for me

Edited by CABLE87

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Just now, Lord_Varys said:

 

All this discussion is around if they don't add anyone.

 

If they don't add anyone... then if you don't even consider him at the 1/2 turn of a standard league then you're doing it wrong.

 

teams ALWAYS add cheap rookies and bring in a vet in  TC to get the competition going or find reliable backups.

KC to my knowledge always carries 3 rb's on the roster+ practice squad at any given point during the season

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16 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Williams did a nice job coming in as the 3rd string RB and producing. That said, I highly doubt the Chiefs are going into 2019 thinking Williams will be "the guy". They'll likely sign and/or draft someone.  People talking about drafting him in the first round have lost their minds. 

Who? Let’s hear it. What FA available would replace him? It would have to be a draft pick and if you think the Chiefs are spending high capital (high enough to justify replacing Williams as the week 1 starter) are about ZERO PERCENT. I love when people say he won’t be the starter (and a defecto first rounder as a result) yet can’t support it with anything that makes sense 

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