BackyardBaseball

Julio Urias 2019 Outlook

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Feel like this guy needs a topic here because his dynasty value may differ from person to person more than anyone in the majors.

 

2015(18 years old) - Top 10 prospect

2016(19 years old) - Top 10 prospect 3.39 Era 84 k in 77ip in majors

2017(20 years old) - Anterior Capsule Surgery

2018(21 years old) - Finally returns towards end of season looking as good as anyone can hope

2019(22 years old) - Ranked 309 on TDG top 600

 

Talk about a fall from grace...

 

I understand anterior capsule surgery is a death for pitchers but the data to back up all of that up is mainly based on much older players and not a 20 year old.  Urias is slated to be a part of the Dodgers rotation, although he will be on an innings limit, and there have been no signs of the surgery being unsuccessful besides maybe a decrease in velocity, but who says that won't come back with a little more time?

 

My question is if I'm alone thinking that he belongs alongside the top tier of pitching prospects.  Other than Forest Whitley, Luzardo and maybe Gore, I see Urias as having just as much upside as guys like Keller, Honeywell, Soroka etc.  But dynasty rankings are placing him closer to guys who are top 50-75 prospects right now.  Where does everyone else stand with him?

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4 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I understand anterior capsule surgery is a death for pitchers but the data to back up all of that up is mainly based on much older players and not a 20 year old.  Urias is slated to be a part of the Dodgers rotation, although he will be on an innings limit

 

I'm curious.  Why do you say that?  He may be or he may not be in the starting rotation depending on off season moves, injuries etc.  For example the depth chart here at Rotoworld lists the Dodgers rotation seeding if the season started today as:

 

  • 1. Clayton Kershaw
  • 2. Walker Buehler
  • 3. Rich Hill
  • 4. Hyun-Jin Ryu
  • 5. Kenta Maeda
  • 6. Ross Stripling
  • 7. Julio Urias
  • 8. Brock Stewart
  • 9. Dennis Santana

 

I would think that unless Ross Stripling gets traded and someone gets injured in spring training that Urias will be in the bullpen at least at the start of the season.

 

In dynasty if you have room, sure have him on your team.  But in re-draft I wouldn't take a chance on him unless he drops way down in the draft.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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He was so much fun as a prospect and rookie phenom...

He actually looked like a solid enough pitcher last year, but nothing I would be real excited about...it was mostly 90-94, and that was outta the pen in short spurts. I acknowledge that further from the capsule, he might improve some... but I think that is in the lower range of probable outcomes.

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1 hour ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

I'm curious.  Why do you say that?  He may be or he may not be in the starting rotation depending on off season moves, injuries etc.  For example the depth chart here at Rotoworld lists the Dodgers rotation seeding if the season started today as:

 

 

Mainly meant the dodgers plan to make him a starter again and that he wasnt going to be a bullben guy in the long run.  Again, I view him essentially as a prospect at this point, and mainly concerned with long term dynasty value.  Guess I'm wondering where you would place him in current prospect rankings.

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https://www.imaginarybrickwall.com/2019-top-1000-dynasty-baseball-rankings-w-short-analysis-2019-projections-and-prime-projections-for-every-player/

 

First rankings I've seen where he is ranked similarly to my own rankings having him at 131 overall, with only Luzardo, Reyes, Honeywell and Whitley ahead of him when it comes to pitching prospects.

Edited by BackyardBaseball

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I think a lot depends on your settings.  I dont think there is anyway this guy is in the rotation coming out of spring, and I think its probably 50-50 he is even on the roster, my guess is probably starting in their AAA level until something opens up and that could be in the rotation or perhaps filling the long role to keep him stretched out.  But...at some point this guy is probably going to be a regular in the rotation and could be beneficial down the stretch so its just a matter of your settings and ability to stash someone for the second half who could become extremely valuable.  

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Dodgers' Julio Urias: Will have innings limit as starter
 
December 11, 2018 9:15 PM EST | by RotoWire Staff

Urias will pitch out of the starting rotation for the Dodgers in 2019 but will have an innings limit, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.

Urias serving as a starting pitcher next season was to be expected, as was an innings limit. The left-hander returned to the team in September and pitched out of the bullpen in the playoffs as he spent essentially the entire season rehabbing after undergoing shoulder surgery in June of 2017.

 

The long road back from anterior capsule surgery culminated in Julio Urias making three relief appearances for the Dodgers in September and seven more appearances in the postseason. It's a small sample obviously, but the lefty's fastball velocity was right back up to where it was before the surgery, as was the swing and miss dominance (12:1 K:BB in 10.1 total innings with the big-league team). The Dodgers have made it clear that Urias will build back up as a starter in 2019. While we may be looking at 100 or so major-league innings from Urias in a best-case scenario, the per-inning numbers should be of extremely high quality.

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Anyone see a decent chance he gets a rotation spot with Kershaw looking uncertain to start the season?

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It will likely be Strippling. The Dodgers purposely started Urias late as they are watching his innings closely. He'll be building up in the pen to start the year.

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts hasn't ruled out having Julio Urias begin the year in the starting rotation.

Advice: Shoulder surgery cost the left-hander most of last season, though Urias did make a handful of relief appearances down the stretch. While some expected Urias to begin his 2019 campaign in the minor leagues, Clayton Kershaw's shoulder injury could pave the way for him to earn a spot in the Dodgers' Opening Day rotation. "The door's open for him," said Roberts. The 22-year-old logged a scoreless inning Wednesday in his spring debut against Oakland.

More: Ken Gurnick on Twitter

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id put urias chance of breaking ST in the rotation at 0.00001 %.

they are playing for a ring and they aren't going to waste urias precious innings in meaningless regular season games early in the season.

they have plenty of other capable sp. 

hope im wrong.

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5 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

id put urias chance of breaking ST in the rotation at 0.00001 %.

they are playing for a ring and they aren't going to waste urias precious innings in meaningless regular season games early in the season.

they have plenty of other capable sp. 

hope im wrong.

I'm not so sure. Urias did well today and his fastball looks good as ever. With Kershaw ailing, I think Urias stands a great chance of making the rotation.

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He was touching 98 in his last start, which is harder than any pitch he's ever thrown in the MLB (per Brooks Baseball).

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Posted (edited)

As expected, Stripling is the next man up, not Urias.

 

Quote

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Thursday that Ross Stripling is the next-man-up for the starting rotation.

This was in the context of a discussion about Clayton Kershaw's ongoing battle with left shoulder soreness, which will likely lead to a season-opening stint on the injured list. Stripling posted a sharp 3.02 ERA and 136/22 K/BB ratio over 122 innings last season as a swingman for the Dodgers. His current average draft position on Yahoo is 203.3. That's quite a value.

 

Edited by Homerj24

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Today vs. Rockies

3IP 0H 0R 1 BB 2K

34 pitches 21 for strikes against what looks to be a fairly good representation of the Rockies opening day lineup.

I'm thinking I need to find a spot on my roster for him, I just wish there was a more clear view of how he'll be used this season.

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surprised he isn't owned in every 12 teamer.

couldn't he offer miller/hadar/betances like ratios and k's out the pen and then the upside when he starts later in the year?

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I would suspect he starts the year in the pen in a 2-3 inning fireman role. I think he'll end up a starter with maybe 120 innings as the year progresses. Was literally writing this when your post popped up cole

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Potential to be great value for owners. Still not in his prime yet.

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Can anyone see urias in the starting rotation sooner than later with half of the staff down?

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By then another guy will be injured and he will have to be in for them. Hoping for good things from Urias. Only bad thing as some have said he does have an innings cap, but he should have some quality innings.

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