BackyardBaseball

Julio Urias 2019 Outlook

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Kid is the future and long term he will be a full time starter for sure. Especially with old man kershaw declining.

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1 hour ago, rasto21585 said:

Kid is the future and long term he will be a full time starter for sure. Especially with old man kershaw declining.

 

Not doubting Julio's future. He's going to be a good one. 

 

However, a declining Kershaw owns a 3.23 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP with an 82:15 K:BB over 92 innings. That's still really good, especially when they're playing with supercharged baseballs. He's fallen a long way from what he was (Godly). He is showing that he is mortal now. He's still a top 20 SP IMO.  

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22 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

sooo no one likes his outlook as a starter ros?

I do, but the dodgers have to give him the chance. They probably just baby him ros. I’m holding just to be safe

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Anything lately on Urias and his status moving forward. I see Yahoo has given him SP rostering.

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On 7/3/2019 at 1:33 PM, phisouza33 said:

I do, but the dodgers have to give him the chance. They probably just baby him ros. I’m holding just to be safe

No need for The dodgers to fully use him as a starter rest of season. Next year though I see him locking up a rotation spot since ryu will be a free agent and hill likely not being healthy.

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20 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

No need for The dodgers to fully use him as a starter rest of season. Next year though I see him locking up a rotation spot since ryu will be a free agent and hill likely not being healthy.

 

Yup. This isn't a Nationals/Strasbourg situation. They have plenty of viable starting options right now, he's throwing in long relief and he's coming off serious injury.

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

 

Yup. This isn't a Nationals/Strasbourg situation. They have plenty of viable starting options right now, he's throwing in long relief and he's coming off serious injury.

I honestly like the long relief. Great win potential, and gives you sparkling ratios 

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18 minutes ago, to_be_quite_frank said:

I honestly like the long relief. Great win potential, and gives you sparkling ratios 

 

That's how I'm missing him currently. He's Getting like 4-6 innings per week with great ratios and Ks and a few W/SV scattered in. Not bad. 

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On 7/9/2019 at 7:52 PM, to_be_quite_frank said:

I honestly like the long relief. Great win potential, and gives you sparkling ratios 

Yep. And with Stripling, Maeda, and Ryu going under 5 IP in recent starts, there seem to be some vulture W opportunities.

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It's all speculation at this point, but it makes sense that the Dodgers are saving Urias' bullets right now in anticipation of having him start down the stretch (and into the playoffs). The reason I say this is that he's currently pitched 53.1 innings on the season. The way he's being used currently would give him ~ 15-20 innings per month the rest of the way, which would have him finish the year right around 90-100 innings pitched. This could be their goal/intention, but I think they'd rather see him get up to 130-140 so that he's in position to more comfortably throw 180 innings next year. 

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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

It's all speculation at this point, but it makes sense that the Dodgers are saving Urias' bullets right now in anticipation of having him start down the stretch (and into the playoffs). The reason I say this is that he's currently pitched 53.1 innings on the season. The way he's being used currently would give him ~ 15-20 innings per month the rest of the way, which would have him finish the year right around 90-100 innings pitched. This could be their goal/intention, but I think they'd rather see him get up to 130-140 so that he's in position to more comfortably throw 180 innings next year. 

 

They could also be factoring in a long playoff run too though so if he hits 100 in the regular season then they’d be comfortable using him as much as possible in the playoffs and ending with 120-130 possibly

 

He’s still pretty fresh off a potentially career ending surgery and the dodgers and lucky enough to have the depth to limit him this year and probably next too.  Could see him only hitting 120-130 this year, 150ish next year then finally getting the full workload and going 180+.

 

edit: just saw that Roberts said they’re looking to make urias a starter again at some point this year.  Again though could see it being just a few starts at the end of the year then him being a main piece in the playoffs

Edited by BackyardBaseball

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

 

They could also be factoring in a long playoff run too though so if he hits 100 in the regular season then they’d be comfortable using him as much as possible in the playoffs and ending with 120-130 possibly

 

He’s still pretty fresh off a potentially career ending surgery and the dodgers and lucky enough to have the depth to limit him this year and probably next too.  Could see him only hitting 120-130 this year, 150ish next year then finally getting the full workload and going 180+.

 

edit: just saw that Roberts said they’re looking to make urias a starter again at some point this year.  Again though could see it being just a few starts at the end of the year then him being a main piece in the playoffs

 

I think that's definitely part of it, as the Dodgers have the luxury of planning for October even though it's only mid-July. But starters like Kershaw and David Price only logged an additional 25-30 IP in the playoffs last year, so I'm not sure the Dodgers need to leave quite so much cushion to feel good about turning Urias loose in the playoffs. Chances are he would get 4-5 starts maximum in the playoffs, and they won't be able to feel confident leaning on him as a starter in the playoffs unless he has at least a few successful turns in the rotation to close out the regular season. It's a bit of a catch-22, and I guess the big unknown is what is the number of innings they would like to see Urias pitch this season, when all is said and done. 

I think he could join the rotation sometime in mid to late-August, get 5-7 starts under his belt and still finish the regular season at under 120 IP, which I'd think would leave enough room for him to used in any role necessary come playoffs. If he slots in as the 4th starter (behind Kershaw, Ryu, and Buehler for sure), he would not figure to start more than 1 game per series/round, although he could get additional innings as a weapon out of the pen. 

Edited by mjb03003

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I was thinking minimum 4 starts before LAD would be comfortable rolling him out in the playoffs. 5 or more would be great fantasy wise but seems a bit aggressive. I guess it depends on how long it takes urias to get stretched out to 5 inn. so 5+ starts might be right

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I think its pretty clear that they're setting up to start in september in preparation for the playoffs. He is one of their better options and gives them the best chance to win.

My question is where this guy ranks as a dynasty arm. Is he a top 10 dynasty arm from next year moving forward? It seems pretty bold, but the more i think of it... there are less than 10 pitchers i would take to start a staff with. 

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1 minute ago, NoHablaIngles said:

I think its pretty clear that they're setting up to start in september in preparation for the playoffs. He is one of their better options and gives them the best chance to win.

My question is where this guy ranks as a dynasty arm. Is he a top 10 dynasty arm from next year moving forward? It seems pretty bold, but the more i think of it... there are less than 10 pitchers i would take to start a staff with. 

love urias and his future but there are very easily 10 more valuable dynasty arms imo

cole, Bieber, soroka, buehler, snell, paddock, giloito, berrios, nola, bauer, german, severino, clevinger. glansnow,  all reasonably young and I wouldn't put that much stock into youth with SP. 

im sure I missed some and that's not including any of the aces that are older which depends on  if your team is win now or not.

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14 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

love urias and his future but there are very easily 10 more valuable dynasty arms imo

cole, Bieber, soroka, buehler, snell, paddock, giloito, berrios, nola, bauer, german, severino, clevinger. glansnow,  all reasonably young and I wouldn't put that much stock into youth with SP. 

im sure I missed some and that's not including any of the aces that are older which depends on  if your team is win now or not.

 

It's a matter of opinion for sure, but I take Urias over most of the names you listed. Cole, Snell and Buehler are the only guys for sure i take over Urias.

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4 minutes ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

It's a matter of opinion for sure, but I take Urias over most of the names you listed. Cole, Snell and Buehler are the only guys for sure i take over Urias.

wouldn't make a lot of sense but w.e. these guys are semi proven and the majority are healthy and have shown that they handle a lot heavier workload. 

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Top 10s definitely bold, but he’s definitely above any pitching prospect at this point and has true ace upside.  I think if he joins the rotation and stays there into next year, a year from now he could easily end up in that top 10 discussion.

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On 7/9/2019 at 10:52 PM, to_be_quite_frank said:

I honestly like the long relief. Great win potential, and gives you sparkling ratios 

 

I think it's a bit hard to justify rostering him in a QS league though. And he might pitch more innings per game, but he also gets more rest in between games than your average RP so I'm really not sure how much more your benefiting. 

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Posted (edited)

Those are quite the "Revelations", colpenhagen.  Taking a "Where Eagles Dare" approach might not give many a cure for their "Fear of the Dark when it comes to illuminating the future.  But the 'Wicker Man" says many of those pitchers listed time's will come, so maybe that will preclude the need for fantasy owners to require a "Talisman" in the hopes they made the right choice.

Book of Souls is awesome.

[...]

Edited by tonycpsu

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Posted (edited)

Probably his "worst" outing today in awhile, although a lot of that is on the defense. Still the usage again is telling.  Guy is pretty consistently getting 4+ IP per week with sterling ratios and K/9 over 9.  AND he consistently going 2-3 IP per appearance which puts him as the defacto "bulk" reliever many times the Dodger starters don't go 5 (which is pretty common). AND the Dodgers aren't afraid to let him finish off games especially as Kenley struggles. 

I think that in leagues that count wins and are 12+ teams this dude needs to be owned, even as a reliever.  Screw Saves and SBs, elite pitching ratios are now the rarest fantasy stats.

Edited by Baur10
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Potential starting pitcher for the dodgers now that Stripling is on the IL, or will they keep him as a 2 inning bullpen guy?

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Barring injury why would LA be saving him for the playoffs?  I think that’s just wishful thinking 

 

Kershaw pitches, Ryu pitches, Buehler pitches.  Then you’ll have the fourth starter being picked from among Hill, Maeda, Stripling and Urias.  Maybe they use two of those guys for 3 innings each or something.  Even in a World Series run, id be surprised if Urias exceeds 15 innings in the playoffs.  Therefore I don’t see them needing to ramp Urias up to a full useful starter in September if all those options are around.  

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