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Coach George

First year player drafts

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I’ve found a couple of rankings for dynasty leagues. Are there more out there?

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2018/10/31/2018-first-year-player-draft-rankings-dynasty-leagues-zb3fh

 

https://razzball.com/2018-first-year-player-draft-rankings-edition-one/

 

Personally, I don’t love this draft class. It seems pretty deep, but it’s not loaded with superstars. 

 

In no order...

 

India

Kelencic

Madrigal

Mize

Bohm

Larnach

Gorman

Kikuchi

Victor Victor Mesa

Bart

Singer

Libertore

 

I don’t see a huge separation between this group. I think Mize would be my top pick if I were in a pitching heavy league. I like Mize but I’m not drooling over him. He probably hasn’t cracked the top 20 for me as far as prospects are concerned.

 

 

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It certainly is an 'odd' type of draft class...the ranks (moreso than most years) are really all over the map.

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I have the 1st pick in mine and locked in on Bart. Good bat, might stick at catcher, hes my easy #1 imo. Also considered madrigal. 

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6 hours ago, Big Webb 48 said:

I have the 1st pick in mine and locked in on Bart. Good bat, might stick at catcher, hes my easy #1 imo. Also considered madrigal. 

My top 3

 

Nolan Gorman will be in top 20 soon

Victor Victor mesa a poor man's Victor robles

Jared kelenic high floor

 

I just hate messing with pitchers and c

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15 hours ago, Big Webb 48 said:

I have the 1st pick in mine and locked in on Bart. Good bat, might stick at catcher, hes my easy #1 imo. Also considered madrigal. 

 

I wouldn't take Bart in the top 3 to be honest unless it was a deep 2 catcher league.

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4 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I wouldn't take Bart in the top 3 to be honest unless it was a deep 2 catcher league.

I agree, catchers take WAY longer to make it up to the majors.  

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

I agree, catchers take WAY longer to make it up to the majors.  

Agreed...I tend to devalue the position in general.  They get more off days, and tend to break down sooner due to wear and tear (obviously there are the rare exceptions like Molina).  Overall, there window of productivity tends to be smaller due to the longer development, so it's always tough for me to justify a higher pick on a catcher in terms of fantasy.

 

I'd also put more value on a bat, so I'd be looking at drafting Gorman (probably would be my top choice), Larnach, India or Bohm (I think he'll bounce back with a full season and a fresh bill of health).

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Has anyone done any FYPD's yet? It would be interested in seeing some results other than rankings. I'm more interested in the deeper rankings as the class is fairly deep and I generally don't believe there is that much of a difference between the player you would get at pick #12 and the player you would get at pick #42.

Also to contribute, here is a top 25 set of rankings.

http://www.inthisleague.com/fantasybaseball/2019-fypd-ranks/

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21 hours ago, pduce242424 said:

Agreed...I tend to devalue the position in general.  They get more off days, and tend to break down sooner due to wear and tear (obviously there are the rare exceptions like Molina).  Overall, there window of productivity tends to be smaller due to the longer development, so it's always tough for me to justify a higher pick on a catcher in terms of fantasy.

 

I'd also put more value on a bat, so I'd be looking at drafting Gorman (probably would be my top choice), Larnach, India or Bohm (I think he'll bounce back with a full season and a fresh bill of health).

 

You know, I kinda like Madrigal. He reminds me a whole lot of Bregman when evaluating the two at the same point. Gorman seems like he has the best chance of turning into the gem of the class, but it's always riskier to go with a high school bat over a more mature college bat. Gorman has a lot in common with Kris Bryant...he's not as big and they hit from opposite sides but I think he has some similar traits.

 

I'm honestly still struggling to pick my way through this collection of guys.  They have all have things that I really like, but no one is really standing out above the rest.

Edited by Coach George

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Yahoo put Mize and Bart in the pool last year. IMO this really watered down the first round of a Yahoo dynasty league. My top 5 is Wander Franco, Nolan Gorman, Kelenic, India, Kikuchi with Brady Singer and madrigal just missing top 5 status. Not sure why Kelenic in Seattle scares me though. Can they really mess up every prospect they ever had? U have to go to Adam jones as a Seattle prospect who made it big although in Baltimore.

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54 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

Yahoo put Mize and Bart in the pool last year. IMO this really watered down the first round of a Yahoo dynasty league. My top 5 is Wander Franco, Nolan Gorman, Kelenic, India, Kikuchi with Brady Singer and madrigal just missing top 5 status. Not sure why Kelenic in Seattle scares me though. Can they really mess up every prospect they ever had? U have to go to Adam jones as a Seattle prospect who made it big although in Baltimore.

 

Your league should just have a rule where you can't pick anyone up that wasn't signed before he year started

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Have the first pick in 2 drafts and may end up taking two different players. To me, there isn't a consensus top player, which makes the top pick kind of meh.

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I'm curious which pick(s) you all have, and which player(s) you're hoping to land.

 

I had pick 1.20 and was hoping for Alek Thomas or Seth Beer, but I made a made a swap to land pick 1.06

 

India would probably be my #1 player... well-roundedness + ballpark factor. I like him more than Senzel. 

 

Kellenic seems robotic to me. Almost too perfect, like he was made in a factory. I'm skeptical that he has the baseball 'it'. 

 

Really not sure how to value Mize, but I probably won't be the one to draft him. 

 

not seeing a ton of Jerimiah Jackson hype.. I thought that guy was showing massive promise? 

 

The top few players seem a bit interchangeable... so I'm going to dangle that 1.06 and see if anyone has draft fever 

 

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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Don't agree with your kelenic take

High floor great kid

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2 hours ago, HOOTIE said:

Don't agree with your kelenic take

High floor great kid

 fair, I need to do more video research. relying purely on Youtube and Twitter video search for all these guys

 

favorite 'value' so far is Alek Thomas... dude could be the best offensive player in the draft imo

also feel like this Nico kid is gonna rise to stardom real fast. really popped in video. 

 

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8 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 fair, I need to do more video research. relying purely on Youtube and Twitter video search for all these guys

 

favorite 'value' so far is Alek Thomas... dude could be the best offensive player in the draft imo

also feel like this Nico kid is gonna rise to stardom real fast. really popped in video. 

 

 

Eno, who I respect a lot, has Nico number 1 due to proximity and hit tool. Expect him to move fast, which obviously makes for less opportunity cost in a tied up minor league slot for 3-4 years for other HS guys. I don't know that I see stardom there moreso than a solid all around bat (like Madrigal).

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Re Mize: How often have we seen someone with an awesome Splitter. Who doesn't have a crappy fastball or meh command/control, and full effective 4 pitch mix?

 

I remember when people under-estimated Tanaka's swing and miss ability when he first came over. Partially because the guy before him. Kuroda, used his Splitter for weak contact then trying to strike people out. Kuroda never had an ERA above 3.70 despite pitching in the AL east. So it obviously worked.

 

No secondary pitch is more devastating then a plus splitter. They don't have platoon problems sliders do, with all the whiff ability.  Tanaka w/o major HR problems realistic ceiling, Matt Shoemaker realistic floor. (Well real floor is arm dies to death, but ya know). All the reports i've read has said Mize has a FB with movement. So he shouldn't have Tanaka's flat hit-able fastball problems.

 

Mize is just so far ahead of the other pitchers in this class right now. He has very good odds of cracking the majors this year. So you get pretty quick ROI on him.  I'd never want to draft a pitcher first..but you also can't really let him fall too far either.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

Re Mize: How often have we seen someone with an awesome Splitter. Who doesn't have a crappy fastball or meh command/control, and full effective 4 pitch mix?

 

I remember when people under-estimated Tanaka's swing and miss ability when he first came over. Partially because the guy before him. Kuroda, used his Splitter for weak contact then trying to strike people out. Kuroda never had an ERA above 3.70 despite pitching in the AL east. So it obviously worked.

 

No secondary pitch is more devastating then a plus splitter. They don't have platoon problems sliders do, with all the whiff ability.  Tanaka w/o major HR problems realistic ceiling, Matt Shoemaker realistic floor. (Well real floor is arm dies to death, but ya know). All the reports i've read has said Mize has a FB with movement. So he shouldn't have Tanaka's flat hit-able fastball problems.

 

Mize is just so far ahead of the other pitchers in this class right now. He has very good odds of cracking the majors this year. So you get pretty quick ROI on him.  I'd never want to draft a pitcher first..but you also can't really let him fall too far either.

 

I have only watched a little bit of minor league Mize, but my only real issue with him is lack of speed differential. If he develops a viable change-up, look out. My comp for him is Honeywell. Good mix of pitches and the one unusual offering (Honeywell's screwball vs. Mize's splitter).

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If I have a top 5 pick in any FYPD this preseason, I'd only focus on the bats.

 

Gorman, Bart, Larnach, Kelenic and Madrigal are the 5 guys, in no particular order, I'd be focusing on.

 

I am probably higher on Bart than most, but I could see him getting some September at bats as soon as this season, so SF can decide if they want to move Posey to 1B 75% of the time and let Bart have most of the appearances behind the plate, then swapping them out for like 2 games a week. His power is real, though his K rate will probably be high as well, but I think he can be a 25-35 homer guy, with a .260ish BA and decent counting stats in that lineup.

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6 hours ago, Anthony K. said:

If I have a top 5 pick in any FYPD this preseason, I'd only focus on the bats.

 

Gorman, Bart, Larnach, Kelenic and Madrigal are the 5 guys, in no particular order, I'd be focusing on.

 

I am probably higher on Bart than most, but I could see him getting some September at bats as soon as this season, so SF can decide if they want to move Posey to 1B 75% of the time and let Bart have most of the appearances behind the plate, then swapping them out for like 2 games a week. His power is real, though his K rate will probably be high as well, but I think he can be a 25-35 homer guy, with a .260ish BA and decent counting stats in that lineup.

A nice 5 

I just can't go crazy on Bart

India and mesa in my 5

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I don't love this draft either. If i had the #1 pick I would probably take Gorman or Mesa. I love Gorman's power and I think Mesa will atleast be a solid pro. Kelenic is the other guy that I'm really high on in this class. Personally if I were in 10-14 team league I would prefer to be picking at the back of the 1st round. Take my chance by having back to back picks and go with Seth Beer who I think will hit at the major league level and then a high upside guy like Marco Luciano, Jeremiah Jackson, Jordyn Adams or Xavier Edwards. Of course I have a Clemson bias and I love beer so maybe I am a little bias when it comes to trying to own Seth beer, but I think he can be a very good major league hitter with great power. He just is terrible in the field and on the base paths. 

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I got Mize at 6 in my draft and was happy he fell to me.  1st round went 

1 Gorman

2. India

3. Bart

4. Madrigal

5 Kelenic

6. Mize

7. Bohm

8. Larnach

9. Juan Pablo Martinez

10. Victo Victor Mesa

11. Singer

12. Swaggerty

13. Liberatore

14. Edwards

15. Groshans

 

This was before Kikuchi signed.

 

Edited by bluefrogguy

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I'm a bit surprised people are so down on Seth Beer. 

I realize he's a defensive liability and there are wooden bat concerns... but I don't see many other FYPlayers who can match his hit tool + power. He's the only player in this draft who truly wowed me during highlights (aside from Misael Urbina and Ethan Hankins), and I believe he has similar physical tools to Joey Votto (but obvioiusly not Votto's best trait, his approach/discipline). Even if he tops out as a .270 - 30 hr guy.... I still think he warrants a top-15 pick because he's a lot more polished and close to 'getting there' than some of these projects

 

*prepares to learn why Seth Beer sucks and why I shouldn't have drafted him*

Edited by RotoBird

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On 1/20/2019 at 1:27 PM, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I had pick 1.20 and was hoping for Alek Thomas or Seth Beer, but I made a made a swap to land pick 1.06

 

 

 

 

 

I have pick 1.10 and hoping to land Peter Alonso. I also like Victor Victor Mesa and India. I'm trying to acquire a 2nd rd pick via trade because I dont select again until 3.5 in a 14 team league. 

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