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Sony Michel 2019 Outlook

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59 minutes ago, yanksman said:

That guy won a lot of championships for people their undefeated season.

 

I'm a Patriots fan and Maroney was hardly a "league winner" that year lol.

 

Over a full season's work

 

825 rushing yds/6 tds

116 receiving yds

 

Only (3) games over 100 yds. One game with multiple tds and that game was only 46 yds rushing on 19 attempts. Averaged over 4 yds a carry in just (5) games (one them right at 4 yds per carry)

 

Like I said, hardly a league winner. That term gets thrown around here WAY too loosely.

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2 hours ago, RoseLin23 said:

Yes, Sony looks awful running the ball for minimal gains up the middle. They don't run him on the outside because it looks like he's running in quick sand. But he's still the Pats best running back and he will get the goal line touches which seem like they will be coming in waves with the way this team is built.

 

10 hours ago, Al.Davis said:

 

Plus they almost never let him run outside the tackles...90% straight up the gut into 15 large men


I used to think the same thing as Al, but Rose is exactly right. Last weeks game highlighted that for me and I was like, “ah, so that is why they don’t run him outside.” He looked terrible, like he was jogging and was easy for the D to pursue. Shorty after they tried Bolden to the edge, he got there fast and turned upfield quickly and got a nice gain. 
 

If someone took the time to go through and break down film grades of RBs, Sony would be a C grade in every single category you judge an RB on. He’s P. Barber in a better situation. 
 

Sure the line does him no favors, but he never does more than what is blocked, doesn’t break tackles, doesn’t juke out defenders, just plows ahead and even if there is a hole, a lot of times it looks like he slows down in anticipation of contact. 
 

That’s not to say he doesn’t have fantasy value as long as he remains the GL back and Brady doesn’t have a goal of hitting double digit rushing TDs. But it also wouldn’t be a surprise is someone like Burkhead significantly cuts into production if he comes back. 
 

My optimistic self says hopefully colder weather can increase his effectiveness and usage. 

Edited by nromn

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

I'm a Patriots fan and Maroney was hardly a "league winner" that year lol.

 

Over a full season's work

 

825 rushing yds/6 tds

116 receiving yds

 

Only (3) games over 100 yds. One game with multiple tds and that game was only 46 yds rushing on 19 attempts. Averaged over 4 yds a carry in just (5) games (one them right at 4 yds per carry)

 

Like I said, hardly a league winner. That term gets thrown around here WAY too loosely.

During the fantasy playoffs:

Week 14: 26-104-1

Week 15: 14-156-1

Week 16: 19-46-2

Like I said, he won a lot of people championships that year.

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4 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

this is a good sell high moment

Yep, probably the highest it will get.

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Owners are probably best just holding off - who will actually give you anything for him?

Vs tough teams, he is highly TD dependent but his role on the team is unquestioned.  Can't deny the high number of touches he gets in an offense that will score a lot and be in positive game script.

For where he was drafted, he is exactly what he was meant to be.  A fantasy RB2 (19th in PPR).  If you are having issues with your team with Michel on your team, he's not the problem.

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I’ve been trying to buy low on Michel all year. Some of you guys either don’t know football or don’t know pats games. As we get closer to winter the running game slowly increases every year. Last 4 weeks of the fantasy season it’s mostly all ground and pound with the pats as it will be this year. He was a great buy low candidate now that window has closed. You can sell high if you want but you will probably regret it later. And I don’t even own Michel.

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17 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I’ve been trying to buy low on Michel all year. Some of you guys either don’t know football or don’t know pats games. As we get closer to winter the running game slowly increases every year. Last 4 weeks of the fantasy season it’s mostly all ground and pound with the pats as it will be this year. He was a great buy low candidate now that window has closed. You can sell high if you want but you will probably regret it later. And I don’t even own Michel.

 

The rookie Harris showed more burst on his first carry than Michel has at any point in the season.  So its not like Michel's competition for carries will be James White and Brandon Bolden in December, it could include Burkehead and Harris.  In my opinion Michel is a prime sell high.  I've never valued 1 yard Touchdown's in my fantasy projections.  Sure, they happen, but I'd prefer a back be a lock for 4 catches and 20 yards than hope he bumbles into the endzone from the 1.

 

James White for example, guy has scored between 11 and 13 PPR points every single week, and found the enzone once.  I prefer that type of stability/consistency, over a guy like Michel who absolutely needs a touchdown to break double digits.  All that said, Michel wasn't as soft last night as he has been all year, but he's still really bad.

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55 minutes ago, yanksman said:

During the fantasy playoffs:

Week 14: 26-104-1

Week 15: 14-156-1

Week 16: 19-46-2

Like I said, he won a lot of people championships that year.

 

Not likely. If you were desperate enough to be starting him at that time, you probably didn't have a very good team to begin with.

Maroney was not a league winner in 2007. Move on.

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29 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I’ve been trying to buy low on Michel all year. Some of you guys either don’t know football or don’t know pats games. As we get closer to winter the running game slowly increases every year. Last 4 weeks of the fantasy season it’s mostly all ground and pound with the pats as it will be this year. He was a great buy low candidate now that window has closed. You can sell high if you want but you will probably regret it later. And I don’t even own Michel.

 

This guy gets it. 

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6 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

The rookie Harris showed more burst on his first carry than Michel has at any point in the season.  So its not like Michel's competition for carries will be James White and Brandon Bolden in December, it could include Burkehead and Harris.  In my opinion Michel is a prime sell high.  I've never valued 1 yard Touchdown's in my fantasy projections.  Sure, they happen, but I'd prefer a back be a lock for 4 catches and 20 yards than hope he bumbles into the endzone from the 1.

 

James White for example, guy has scored between 11 and 13 PPR points every single week, and found the enzone once.  I prefer that type of stability/consistency, over a guy like Michel who absolutely needs a touchdown to break double digits.  All that said, Michel wasn't as soft last night as he has been all year, but he's still really bad.

 

Seriously? 1 carry? Did you see his next one? Went sideways for no gain or maybe -1. Come on man, some people on this forum are pretty funny. 

 

And the same James White ran 5 times for ZERO yards. Zero yards from a guy when he’s in there teams expect the pass. This O-Line sucks balls. They’re bad. 

 

As bad as everyone makes Sony out to be, he’s 14th in standard and 19th in PPR. And it’s gonna get cold, and he’s only gonna get better. 

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13 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

The rookie Harris showed more burst on his first carry than Michel has at any point in the season.  So its not like Michel's competition for carries will be James White and Brandon Bolden in December, it could include Burkehead and Harris.  In my opinion Michel is a prime sell high.  I've never valued 1 yard Touchdown's in my fantasy projections.  Sure, they happen, but I'd prefer a back be a lock for 4 catches and 20 yards than hope he bumbles into the endzone from the 1.

 

James White for example, guy has scored between 11 and 13 PPR points every single week, and found the enzone once.  I prefer that type of stability/consistency, over a guy like Michel who absolutely needs a touchdown to break double digits.  All that said, Michel wasn't as soft last night as he has been all year, but he's still really bad.

So now you guys aren’t valuing touchdowns? Lol. Hate to break it to you But that’s part of the game and the pats are going to score A LOT of touchdowns this year. You are also valuing white in PPR. Not everyone plays in participation points leagues. In standard scoring white is running back 38 and Michel is Rb 14.

Edited by StevenSC400

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2 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Seriously? 1 carry? Did you see his next one? Went sideways for no gain or maybe -1. Come on man, some people on this forum are pretty funny. 

 

And the same James White ran 5 times for ZERO yards. Zero yards from a guy when he’s in there teams expect the pass. This O-Line sucks balls. They’re bad. 

 

As bad as everyone makes Sony out to be, he’s 14th in standard and 19th in PPR. And it’s gonna get cold, and he’s only gonna get better. 

 

So you criticize Harris no yard gain, then defend White and Michel for their numerous failings saying its the O-line? 

Point was, Harris looked better on that one run, than any of the other 25 runs last night.  Same line.  And without a Fullback, they could play in Antarctica and Michel would still need 35 carries to break a hundo.

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10 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Seriously? 1 carry? Did you see his next one? Went sideways for no gain or maybe -1. Come on man, some people on this forum are pretty funny. 

 

And the same James White ran 5 times for ZERO yards. Zero yards from a guy when he’s in there teams expect the pass. This O-Line sucks balls. They’re bad. 

 

As bad as everyone makes Sony out to be, he’s 14th in standard and 19th in PPR. And it’s gonna get cold, and he’s only gonna get better. 

LOL 1 carry in the garbage of all garbage time. Yeah, that's going to change Hoodie's future gameplans.

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32 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

I’ve been trying to buy low on Michel all year. Some of you guys either don’t know football or don’t know pats games. As we get closer to winter the running game slowly increases every year. Last 4 weeks of the fantasy season it’s mostly all ground and pound with the pats as it will be this year. He was a great buy low candidate now that window has closed. You can sell high if you want but you will probably regret it later. And I don’t even own Michel.

Last years number don't really indicate that.

First 8 games (Sept/Oct) the Pats had 221 carries or 27.63 carries a game

Last 8 games (Nov/Dec) they had 227 carries or 28.38 carries a game

That's about a half carry more in Nov/Dec. The Patriots are going to do whatever works. If Michel doesn't improve on his 3.3 yards a carry, they're not going to feed him even more. They're going to find something/someone that works better.

 

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5 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Last years number don't really indicate that.

First 8 games (Sept/Oct) the Pats had 221 carries or 27.63 carries a game

Last 8 games (Nov/Dec) they had 227 carries or 28.38 carries a game

That's about a half carry more in Nov/Dec. The Patriots are going to do whatever works. If Michel doesn't improve on his 3.3 yards a carry, they're not going to feed him even more. They're going to find something/someone that works better.

 

I was mainly referring to the last month of the season. Which is prime time for fantasy football playoffs. I don’t have numbers in front of me but they usually do run more. It’s also not all about the attempts themselves but how many passing TDs is Brady going to throw in December when it’s raining/snowing? 

Edited by StevenSC400

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4 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

So now you guys aren’t valuing touchdowns? Lol. Hate to break it to you But that’s part of the game and the pats are going to score A LOT of touchdowns this year. You are also valuing white in PPR. Not everyone plays in participation points leagues. In standard scoring white is running back 38 and Michel is Rb 14.

 

Participation points leagues?  Haha, PPR is the new standard.  Yardage leagues are the myspace of fantasy.

I do not value 1 yard TDs unless it comes with sustainable statistics aside from that.  Worked out pretty well for me the last 20 years.  I'll take James White over a low YPC back with no receiving skills that MUST score from the 1 to not sink you, any day of the week. You are pretending that Rex Burkehead doesn't get half the goal to go snaps and he's out.  Sony is trash.  Sell now, clearly there are some suckers who believe in him.

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15 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

So you criticize Harris no yard gain, then defend White and Michel for their numerous failings saying its the O-line? 

Point was, Harris looked better on that one run, than any of the other 25 runs last night.  Same line.  And without a Fullback, they could play in Antarctica and Michel would still need 35 carries to break a hundo.

Harris's nice run was on a 3rd and 14. No one is putting any stock in a 3rd and 14 run in a non-competitive game.

Edited by fletch44

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7 minutes ago, RoseLin23 said:

LOL 1 carry in the garbage of all garbage time. Yeah, that's going to change Hoodie's future gameplans.

 

There is no such thing as garbage time on the Patriots.  They ran a reverse to Edelman a few plays before that run.

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1 minute ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Participation points leagues?  Haha, PPR is the new standard.  Yardage leagues are the myspace of fantasy.

I do not value 1 yard TDs unless it comes with sustainable statistics aside from that.  Worked out pretty well for me the last 20 years.  I'll take James White over a low YPC back with no receiving skills that MUST score from the 1 to not sink you, any day of the week. You are pretending that Rex Burkehead doesn't get half the goal to go snaps and he's out.  Sony is trash.  Sell now, clearly there are some suckers who believe in him.

Standard for who? If anything half PPR is the standard not full PPR. Burkhead gets injured every year just like fuller and a plethora of others. I don’t even have Michel I’m saying I wouldn’t try to sell high on him but rather keep him for the stretch. He’s going to pay off down the stretch just like he did last year.

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24 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

Harris's nice run was on a 3rd and 14. No one is putting any stock in a 3rd and 14 run in a non-competitive game.

 

Normally I'd agree with you, but your comment completely lacks context.

This was the Patriots 3rd Round pick getting his first snap of the season in Week 7, and showed more burst and may have technically broken more tackles, than Sony Michel has all season long.  Add to it that its the Patriots, who do not take a single play off and ran Edelman on a jet sweep about 3 plays prior to that, this wasn't a throw away play.  Sony is not superior to any of the other backs on this roster when they are healthy, not in any measurable area.  He's AAF Trent Richardson.

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35 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

There is no such thing as garbage time on the Patriots.  They ran a reverse to Edelman a few plays before that run.

 

The Pats were on defense on that Edelman reverse too??? Tell me more. 

Edited by Sonny_D

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13 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Normally I'd agree with you, but your comment completely lacks context.

This was the Patriots 3rd Round pick getting his first snap of the season in Week 7, and showed more burst and may have technically broken more tackles, than Sony Michel has all season long.  Add to it that its the Patriots, who do not take a single play off and ran Edelman on a jet sweep about 3 plays prior to that, this wasn't a throw away play.  Sony is not superior to any of the other backs on this roster when they are healthy, not in any measurable area.  He's AAF Trent Richardson.

 

See my question above. 

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I’m concerned about his touchdown dependency. Sure, the Pats are going to put him in a position every week to get in the endzone. On the weeks he doesn’t get in you’re looking at 4-6 points. I don’t usually put a lot of stock into YPC but when you actually watch Sony it’s surprising his average is as high as 3.3. He might be one of the least elusive backs I’ve seen in a long time. 

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2 minutes ago, FootballOutsider said:

I’m concerned about his touchdown dependency. Sure, the Pats are going to put him in a position every week to get in the endzone. On the weeks he doesn’t get in you’re looking at 4-6 points. I don’t usually put a lot of stock into YPC but when you actually watch Sony it’s surprising his average is as high as 3.3. He might be one of the least elusive backs I’ve seen in a long time. 

 

With that line, I’m surprised it’s even as high as 3.3. Two ways to look at things. 

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