oban14

Sony Michel 2019 Outlook

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I always wondered why his ADP was so high but its started falling already.   If he stays where he's at right now (just got him at pick 48 in a mock as my third RB) that's not too bad.  When he's going in the third round i'm far away from that.    

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20 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I always wondered why his ADP was so high but its started falling already.   If he stays where he's at right now (just got him at pick 48 in a mock as my third RB) that's not too bad.  When he's going in the third round i'm far away from that.    

He's still a NE RB. I don't mind owning one, but preferably for free off the wire once the smoke clears up.

Could be White, could be Michel, could be Damien Harris, could be a random kid off the practice squad who doesn't fumble too much. The chance of me investing before the season starts however is fairly small.

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It certainly does seem that the cheap back is the one you want.  The year Blount had 18 TD's he was barely drafted.  Michel was pretty cheap last year in redraft.  James White too.   

 

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1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

He's still a NE RB. I don't mind owning one, but preferably for free off the wire once the smoke clears up.

Could be White, could be Michel, could be Damien Harris, could be a random kid off the practice squad who doesn't fumble too much. The chance of me investing before the season starts however is fairly small.

 

Correct. Just draft the one with the lowest ADP or none at all is my stance.

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10 hours ago, Jags02 said:

So Michel has been missing OTAs and apparently, nobody knows why. 

 

Pretty sure all other players that missed are dealing with known injuries. Michel's absence from mandatory camp is a concern. He's had his share of knee issues in the past

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3 hours ago, fingers said:

 

Pretty sure all other players that missed are dealing with known injuries. Michel's absence from mandatory camp is a concern. He's had his share of knee issues in the past

 

Uhg. Hope this doesnt boost damien Harris's draft stock too much

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Knee scope being reported for Michel. Another ding to his left knee but supposed to be back for camp. Lots of smoke around that knee...

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I am almost as concerned about Michel's knee as I am about Todd Gurley's.

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It really is funny at this point...

2018: Rex-5th round, Michel-8th round, White-11th round (if I remember correctly).  White finished highest in PPR, Michel close behind and better in standard.

2017: Gillislee was the highest drafted, followed by Rex, followed by Dion, and Dion Lewis ended up being the most valuable.

2016: Dion Lewis was drafted highest after a great 2015 (cut short by injury), followed by White, followed by Blount.  Blount was the most valuable.

2015: Blount was the highest drafted, followed by Jonas Gray.  Dion Lewis was the undrafted cheap pickup who stole our hearts.

 

I don't always buy the "I just want the cheapest RB in this committee".  In fact I think it's generally a pretty lazy approach.

 

But god damn ... it's become a science in Foxborough.

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2 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I am almost as concerned about Michel's knee as I am about Todd Gurley's.

 

Not me because I won't be spending any kind of valuable draft pick on Michele at this point.  Even though he had a nice end of year, he never looked either powerful or fast.  Always had trouble punching it in on the goalline as well.  This with the injury history and the new injury news AND the drafting of Harris takes him off my radar.  At least where he's getting taken now. 

 

On the other hand, drafting Gurley would mean taking a risky shot in the late 1st or early 2nd. 

 

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2 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

It really is funny at this point...

2018: Rex-5th round, Michel-8th round, White-11th round (if I remember correctly).  White finished highest in PPR, Michel close behind and better in standard.

2017: Gillislee was the highest drafted, followed by Rex, followed by Dion, and Dion Lewis ended up being the most valuable.

2016: Dion Lewis was drafted highest after a great 2015 (cut short by injury), followed by White, followed by Blount.  Blount was the most valuable.

2015: Blount was the highest drafted, followed by Jonas Gray.  Dion Lewis was the undrafted cheap pickup who stole our hearts.

 

I don't always buy the "I just want the cheapest RB in this committee".  In fact I think it's generally a pretty lazy approach.

 

But god damn ... it's become a science in Foxborough.

Nice recap. 

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On 6/12/2019 at 2:01 PM, Lord_Varys said:

It really is funny at this point...

2018: Rex-5th round, Michel-8th round, White-11th round (if I remember correctly).  White finished highest in PPR, Michel close behind and better in standard.

2017: Gillislee was the highest drafted, followed by Rex, followed by Dion, and Dion Lewis ended up being the most valuable.

2016: Dion Lewis was drafted highest after a great 2015 (cut short by injury), followed by White, followed by Blount.  Blount was the most valuable.

2015: Blount was the highest drafted, followed by Jonas Gray.  Dion Lewis was the undrafted cheap pickup who stole our hearts.

 

I don't always buy the "I just want the cheapest RB in this committee".  In fact I think it's generally a pretty lazy approach.

 

But god damn ... it's become a science in Foxborough.

So...Damien Harris in 2019?

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10 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Just avoid altogether for your own sanity. 

This is the best with the NE backfield. Avoid during the draft, pick up the discarded back from the wire, then roll the dice.

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Apparently Sony is back up to full speed and there's positive vibes trickling out through beat guys.

 

What's the track record with other RBs coming off a scope in this time frame? I dont know how to google this..

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Playing a mild devil's advocate here, the Pats haven't had a RB of Michel's talent level in some time. He has a good shot IMO to break the tradition of a messy NE backfield and be "the guy." Still wouldn't exactly go out of my way for him, and the lack of catches is disturbing, but if I'm shopping for a RB2 and some of the better ones are gone....   

 

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On 6/27/2019 at 7:00 PM, bomont said:

Playing a mild devil's advocate here, the Pats haven't had a RB of Michel's talent level in some time. He has a good shot IMO to break the tradition of a messy NE backfield and be "the guy." Still wouldn't exactly go out of my way for him, and the lack of catches is disturbing, but if I'm shopping for a RB2 and some of the better ones are gone....   

 

 

I’m not sure if Michel will ever be the sole RB or a 3 down RB in NE.  

Even if Michel fully recovers he will still split carries, at first with either White and/or Harris and eventually Harris.  Burkhead is depth.

they won’t want to risk him getting injured.  He is lackluster in certain aspects like blocking and receiving.

i think no matter what, when all healthy, Michel and Harris will be pretty much a 50/50 RBBC after this season.  With White involved for this season until Harris jumps over him.

i think both Michel and Harris in that combination could both be RB2/RB3s most years in whichever order.

But yea, I think that means I stay well away from Michel at his current ADP and would strongly consider trying to get Harris much much later and cheaper. Harris could be a flat out steal in that scenario.

Heck, I’d draft Penny ahead of Michel this year as I think he can outproduce him even with a RBBC in Seattle.  But eventually I think Penny could take over as the bell cow there while Michel will never likely be that guy.

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Just now, brakeyawself said:

 

I’m not sure if Michel will ever be the sole RB or a 3 down RB in NE.  

Even if Michel fully recovers he will still split carries, at first with either White and/or Harris and eventually Harris.  Burkhead is depth.

they won’t want to risk him getting injured.  He is lackluster in certain aspects like blocking and receiving.

i think no matter what, when all healthy, Michel and Harris will be pretty much a 50/50 RBBC after this season.  With White involved for this season until Harris jumps over him.

i think both Michel and Harris in that combination could both be RB2/RB3s most years in whichever order.

But yea, I think that means I stay well away from Michel at his current ADP and would strongly consider trying to get Harris much much later and cheaper. Harris could be a flat out steal in that scenario.

Heck, I’d draft Penny ahead of Michel this year as I think he can outproduce him even with a RBBC in Seattle.  But eventually I think Penny could take over as the bell cow there while Michel will never likely be that guy.

 

Penn and Harris are two guys I’d be targeting in dynasty to draft or trade for.

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On 1/25/2019 at 11:35 AM, K197040 said:

"I agree that he'll probably be used in the passing game more. Especially on 1st and some 2nd. But I'm not sure that he's going to get a lot of the 2nd/3rd and long work. ... Unless Michel really takes a step up, I just can't seem him being an every down back. ...maybe (...) Michel was never 100% this season..."

 

Michel is going to be a guy for them, but as already noted, not the only guy. The down & distance thing, that's likely him being a rookie and they almost always need work at pass protection. He has a 3-down skill set but what may be questionable is whether he can give them that every week & really drop the hammer near the goal. Harris & Brossette could be telling adds there. Damien Harris & I think, Demaryius Thomas have value.    

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Posted (edited)
On 6/27/2019 at 7:00 PM, bomont said:

Playing a mild devil's advocate here, the Pats haven't had a RB of Michel's talent level in some time. He has a good shot IMO to break the tradition of a messy NE backfield and be "the guy." Still wouldn't exactly go out of my way for him, and the lack of catches is disturbing, but if I'm shopping for a RB2 and some of the better ones are gone....   

 


Man this argument has been rerun over and over.... chasing the ghost of Corey Dillon has proven to be a futile endeavor. Laurence Maroney, Sammy Morris, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Fred Taylor, Stevan Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, Mike Gillislee and Burkhead were all thought (at one time or another) to have enough talent to be "the guy"... is Michel significantly better in every aspect to make the case to be a workhorse back, despite the (very successful) RBBC philosophy they've used over the past decade? I don't think so.
 

Lots of people speculating that the Pats will have to run more since Gronk is gone and Brady is 42, but I would never bet against Brady. 

Edited by AirForceOne

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

 

I’m not sure if Michel will ever be the sole RB or a 3 down RB in NE.  

Even if Michel fully recovers he will still split carries, at first with either White and/or Harris and eventually Harris.  Burkhead is depth.

they won’t want to risk him getting injured.  He is lackluster in certain aspects like blocking and receiving.

i think no matter what, when all healthy, Michel and Harris will be pretty much a 50/50 RBBC after this season.  With White involved for this season until Harris jumps over him.

i think both Michel and Harris in that combination could both be RB2/RB3s most years in whichever order.

But yea, I think that means I stay well away from Michel at his current ADP and would strongly consider trying to get Harris much much later and cheaper. Harris could be a flat out steal in that scenario.

Heck, I’d draft Penny ahead of Michel this year as I think he can outproduce him even with a RBBC in Seattle.  But eventually I think Penny could take over as the bell cow there while Michel will never likely be that guy.

Good post agreed all around, except about Penny. I think he will spell Carson, no RBBC.

 

AF1, about your post, none of those guys IMO were as good as Michel (at that time). Again I'm not trying to hype Michel, just considering the other side of this.

 

 

Edited by bomont

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

"... is Michel significantly better in every aspect to make the case to be a workhorse back, despite the (very successful) RBBC philosophy they've used... Lots of people speculating that the Pats will have to run more since Gronk is gone and Brady is 42, but I would never bet against Brady."

 

The counterargument to your comment about Michel relies on hindsight & his skill set, it seems. I took your point relating to fantasy & thus when those guys were drafted by fantasy owners, which would be the better comparable. With respect to Gronk, up here anyway, this past year commentators were often linking his impact or contribution to his blocking... Perhaps they will run more, but given his actual role, that doesn't make a lot of sense. Plus, I like what they've done at WR.

Edited by markrc99

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Michel to start preseason on the PUP list per Mike Reiss

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1 hour ago, fingers said:

Michel to start preseason on the PUP list per Mike Reiss

Now Damien Harris makes sense 

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