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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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Elliott:

- #2 RB in 2016

- #12 in 2017 on only 9 games (#3 over the first 9 weeks)

- #5 in 2018.

Over the past three seasons, Zeke has 101 yd rushing per game (on 21 carries), and then he adds 30 yd receiving per game. In total, he also has close to 1 TD per game (.85). Those numbers are insane, and having a healthy and non-suspended Elliott in your team is a very strong advantage.
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Each year he had only 1 game with less than 80 yards total, which is absolutely insane. Clearly, this is a top-tier RB for everyone; the only RBs you can consider taking over him are CMC and Saquon.
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I feel good about Zeke next year.   He's had good health for three years.    They lost some linemen to injury and he didn't really falter too much.   Cooper and Gallup seem to be established now as consistent outside WR targets that'll help Dak keep things balanced.   I didn't like his TD regression this year, but 9 in 15 games is still pretty good.   Nearly one per game in his first two seasons was a tough peak to maintain.   

 

I'm also hoping the improved Dallas defense and passing offense will be helping to build up 4th quarter leads for Zeke to close out.  A personal preference of mine is to get that back who finds himself in that situation.    It can potentially differentiate Zeke from a Barkley next year.   

 

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Zeke was even better in the 2nd half after the team acquired Amari and the offense started to move the ball and score points.  The #2 RB in PPR from weeks 9-16 in both total points & per game, behind only CMC.  Tough to fault anyone who ranks Zeke #1 overall next year but not a bad year to have pick #5 with Gurley, CMC, Saquon & Kamara (especially if Ingram leaves) also all squarely in the mix for #1.

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very good season for Zeke; FINALLY and maybe the only wrinkle or positive thing Linehan figured out was getting Zeke targets. He set a franchise record this year for catches by an RB.  Which only boost his value even more moving forward.  The low TD numbers were at bit odd.  This Cowboys offense was garbage in the red zone. One of the worst in football.  I would expect an uptick in TD in 2019 for Zeke.  He's a true three down workhorse who is getting fed a lot.  He's a lock for a top 5 pick in all formats heading into next season, IMO.

 

 

Edited by BlakeP42
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28 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Zeke was even better in the 2nd half after the team acquired Amari and the offense started to move the ball and score points.  The #2 RB in PPR from weeks 9-16 in both total points & per game, behind only CMC.  Tough to fault anyone who ranks Zeke #1 overall next year but not a bad year to have pick #5 with Gurley, CMC, Saquon & Kamara (especially if Ingram leaves) also all squarely in the mix for #1.

 

Right - mainly because they (gasp!) figured out they should throw the ball to him, too, at that point.

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Zeke top 3 rb next year gurley=barkley are the only ones I take ahead of him.  .assuming kamara is still the joker rb

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12 hours ago, petekrum said:

You can’t consider Gurley over him? Interesting.

Or kamara? Very interesting...

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15 hours ago, petekrum said:

You can’t consider Gurley over him? Interesting.

 

3 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Or kamara? Very interesting...

Yeah, fair enough. It's slightly outside the current discussion though, so I'll create a new thread for that.

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IF the Cowboys get a new OC, I would consider taking Zeke at the #1.   He's shown he can be a great pass catching back.  It would be hard to imagine a new OC not wanting to utilize that aspect of his game.  

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On 1/16/2019 at 12:17 PM, K197040 said:

IF the Cowboys get a new OC, I would consider taking Zeke at the #1.   He's shown he can be a great pass catching back.  It would be hard to imagine a new OC not wanting to utilize that aspect of his game.  

 

They will have a new OC!

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On 1/16/2019 at 9:17 AM, K197040 said:

IF the Cowboys get a new OC, I would consider taking Zeke at the #1.   He's shown he can be a great pass catching back.  It would be hard to imagine a new OC not wanting to utilize that aspect of his game.  

The Cowboys would be wise to start opening up the offense and going a little less run heavy. They are going to run Zeke into the ground within a couple of years at this rate. It may sound unpleasant to dynasty owners like myself, but Jerry Jones needs to find a good complimentary RB to mix in with EE. 

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No extension for Garrett, and Kellen Moore at OC with John kitna as qb coach? Yea Garrett would be wise to bet his career on his best player in 2019. FeedZ2019. 

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On 2/2/2019 at 12:10 AM, pikerbkb said:

The Cowboys would be wise to start opening up the offense and going a little less run heavy. They are going to run Zeke into the ground within a couple of years at this rate. It may sound unpleasant to dynasty owners like myself, but Jerry Jones needs to find a good complimentary RB to mix in with EE. 

As a coach, would you rather have Elliott for the next 3 years at 100% production, or the next 5-6 years running at 75% ?

 

 

 

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On 2/3/2019 at 7:36 AM, psygolf said:

As a coach, would you rather have Elliott for the next 3 years at 100% production, or the next 5-6 years running at 75% ?

 

 

 

Problem with your premise is, it's not a two option proposition. I would prefer the third option which is I would rather have a running game that maintains the current team production level for the next 5-6 years with EE getting 85-90% of his current workload + production. 

 

And at this rate, chances are they won't have Zeke at 100% for 3 years. With the physical nature of Elliott's running style and his volume, they'll be very fortunately to get 2 full seasons from Zeke out of the next 3. Additionally, it's a very bad strategy to be so reliant on one player at one position unless it's the QB.

 

From a fantasy perspective, there's a way to prolong Elliott's career and maintain his point production as we all saw this season: more involvement in the passing game. If he flirts with 80-90 receptions per season we can afford for him to lose 25-30 carries per season.  A complimentary back is going to keep Elliott fresher late in the season, makes his yards per carries more effective and prolong his career AND increase his overall value to my fantasy (dynasty) team. Makes total sense to me from a dynasty perspective.

Edited by pikerbkb
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14 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Problem with your premise is, it's not a two option proposition. I would prefer the third option which is I would rather have a running game that maintains the current team production level for the next 5-6 years with EE getting 85-90% of his current workload + production. 

 

And at this rate, chances are they won't have Zeke at 100% for 3 years. With the physical nature of Elliott's running style and his volume, they'll be very fortunately to get 2 full seasons from Zeke out of the next 3. Additionally, it's a very bad strategy to be so reliant on one player at one position unless it's the QB.

 

From a fantasy perspective, there's a way to prolong Elliott's career and maintain his point production as we all saw this season: more involvement in the passing game. If he flirts with 80-90 receptions per season we can afford for him to lose 25-30 carries per season.  A complimentary back is going to keep Elliott fresher late in the season, makes his yards per carries more effective and prolong his career AND increase his overall value to my fantasy (dynasty) team. Makes total sense to me from a dynasty perspective.

I do not think losing less than 2 carries a game, while adding 1 reception per game to his current load, is going to keep Elliott healthy for an extra 3-5 years.

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22 hours ago, psygolf said:

I do not think losing less than 2 carries a game, while adding 1 reception per game to his current load, is going to keep Elliott healthy for an extra 3-5 years.

Okay maybe it's more, but I think we're getting lost in finding an exact number and not seeing the big picture. Maybe shaving off 40-50 carries a season will make a difference, but I am not a conditioning coach or longevity analyst so I don't know. And when you say 1 reception per game, he actually increased his total by 3 receptions per game vs. his average over the first 2 seasons. That's a huge difference. Bump that to 80-90 per season and that's 4 receptions per game over his first 2 seasons. In this sense, I am just talking about maintaining fantasy production.

 

Bottomline is they are running him into the ground right now. Aside from Adrian Peterson, I haven't seen another RB maintain this type of usage in the running game and maintain his effectiveness and production consistently beyond 4-5 seasons. Maybe EE is different and he's cut from the same cloth as Peterson, but only time will tell.

Edited by pikerbkb

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OT but I think Le'Veon Bell is delusional thinking he's going to land a windfall contract given all the mileage he has on his legs (plus his character issues). He's got another 2-3 peak/elite seasons left.

Edited by pikerbkb

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On 2/2/2019 at 12:10 AM, pikerbkb said:

The Cowboys would be wise to start opening up the offense and going a little less run heavy. They are going to run Zeke into the ground within a couple of years at this rate. It may sound unpleasant to dynasty owners like myself, but Jerry Jones needs to find a good complimentary RB to mix in with EE. 

  I've thought about this a bit myself coming off another big season from Zeke.  Esp coming off a season where finally JG/Linehan pulled their heads from their butts to get Zeke a big boost in targets.  

 

  I think as long as JG is the HC, the plan will be to have Zeke pushing 375-400 touches per season easily.   Im curious as to what wrinkles K.Moore will bring to the table within this JG overall offensive system. But i think Garrett and Will McClay have purposely drafted and assembled a team over the past  five seasons or so that is designed to lean on a guy like Zeke. Of course starting with their repeated commitment to the OL and then the bold move to draft Zeke top 4.

 

  All that being said, i think are absolutely right to a degree, this offense has to expand play book wise, but it also has to have guys step up to continue to get some of the weight off Zeke's shoulders.  He touches the ball so much bc he's By a MILE the best player they have on the field.  Cowboys need to hit on another draft pick or two here soon at WR and TE. They also need Dak to get better, and Gallup continue steady growth.  Cooper will be fine.  He's an established vet at this point and brings plenty to the Cowboys offense. He's exactly what i mean when i say expanding the offense.  Cooper did it right away but,   They simply need more creativity, more growth, and more SPEED on offense to be a true juggernaut in this era of the NFL.  

 

  The overall idea of how they want to approach the game as a run first/heavy/constant 12 personnel offense is outdated.   It can win you games, sure.  We see that.  Dak and Zeke's overall record is dang good through their young career so far.  But the bottom line is, this offense has to expand, make big plays and by god score in the red zone.  I don't think they can get there unless Garrett leaves and  Zeke can't do it all.  His wheels will flat fall off in 6 years no doubt at this pace. Either way, the Cowboys will run those wheels right off under the Garrett era.  See Demarco Murray.    2019 will be interesting to see play out though.  A lot riding on the Cowboys future in many ways based off this season

 

(Sorry for the long post)

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3 hours ago, pikerbkb said:

Aside from Adrian Peterson, I haven't seen another RB maintain this type of usage in the running game and maintain his effectiveness and production consistently beyond 4-5 seasons. Maybe EE is different and he's cut from the same cloth as Peterson, but only time will tell.

That's my point, rarely do you get top rb production beyond that 4-5 yr window, for various reasons...so you might as well just keep throwing the stick until it doesn't come back.

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

That's my point, rarely do you get top rb production beyond that 4-5 yr window, for various reasons...so you might as well just keep throwing the stick until it doesn't come back.

For ordinary RBs and RBs that were run like rented mules, yes. But there are plenty of RBs who had productive careers well beyond that 4-5 year window. Some had superior genetics like Jim Brown, AP or Curtis Martin. Some had hybrid roles like Jamaal Charles and Shady McCoy. The big difference is Zeke's usage. It. Is. Insane. I don't remember any RB having that type of usage (carries) on a per game average in his first 3 years. It's absolutely sick. And remarkably he's never missed a game because of a significant injury. Maybe he is related to AP!

 

Air it out. Spread the offense out. Give EE easier looks and wide lanes to run through. Get him a real wingman, like an Ekeler or a Jalen Richard type. 15-20 carries and 10+ targets a game. He'll have a longer career, be fresherat the end of the season/playoffs and maintain his fantasy production.

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14 hours ago, pikerbkb said:

I don't remember any RB having that type of usage (carries) on a per game average in his first 3 years. It's absolutely sick. And remarkably he's never missed a game because of a significant injury. Maybe he is related to AP!

 

Zeke is averaging 21.7 carries per game. 

 

Just going down the list of the all-timers and looking at their first three years...

Emmitt Smith...20.8. 

Walter Payton...24.2.

Curtis Martin...21.3.

LaDanian Tomlinson...21.3.

Eric Dickerson...23.1.

Jim Brown...20.9.

Edgerrin James...23.9 (plus another 3.9 via receptions).

Jamal Lewis...20.8.

Eddie George...21.7.

Otis Anderson...20.0.

Ricky Williams...21.4.

 

And there may be others throughout history. These are just the guys ranked in the top 30 in all-time rushing. So we see three guys who averaged more carries per game than Zeke, another who averaged roughly the same, and another six who were within carry per game. 

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12 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Zeke is averaging 21.7 carries per game. 

 

Just going down the list of the all-timers and looking at their first three years...

Emmitt Smith...20.8. 

Walter Payton...24.2.

Curtis Martin...21.3.

LaDanian Tomlinson...21.3.

Eric Dickerson...23.1.

Jim Brown...20.9.

Edgerrin James...23.9 (plus another 3.9 via receptions).

Jamal Lewis...20.8.

Eddie George...21.7.

Otis Anderson...20.0.

Ricky Williams...21.4.

 

And there may be others throughout history. These are just the guys ranked in the top 30 in all-time rushing. So we see three guys who averaged more carries per game than Zeke, another who averaged roughly the same, and another six who were within carry per game. 

He can handle the load and wants it, so until the Cowboys have an equal or better option (rb, wr, te) they should keep it the same.

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3 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Zeke is averaging 21.7 carries per game. 

 

Just going down the list of the all-timers and looking at their first three years...

Emmitt Smith...20.8. 

Walter Payton...24.2.

Curtis Martin...21.3.

LaDanian Tomlinson...21.3.

Eric Dickerson...23.1.

Jim Brown...20.9.

Edgerrin James...23.9 (plus another 3.9 via receptions).

Jamal Lewis...20.8.

Eddie George...21.7.

Otis Anderson...20.0.

Ricky Williams...21.4.

 

And there may be others throughout history. These are just the guys ranked in the top 30 in all-time rushing. So we see three guys who averaged more carries per game than Zeke, another who averaged roughly the same, and another six who were within carry per game. 

This is cherry picking in the highest order, plus you had to go back a decade just to find guys. I was going by recent memory. These are are exceptions to the rule. You could make a list 10 times this long of RBs who started out promising and fell off a cliff after a couple of seasons.

 

Can EE sustain this pace and match these historic all-timers? Yes, it's possible, but unlikely. Can he beat the odds? Sure. He's looked great so far and is in a system that is tailored made for him sustain production, but the odds are against him sustaining this level of usage and production long term. This is just reality.

 

Do I count on Jerra & Co. doing the smart thing and finding a true complimentary back to pair with Zeke? No, I don't, at least not next season. I am just saying what the smart thing would be for him to do. You and @psygolf are counting on him to be on par with Emmitt, Walter and L.T. It's a very lofty notion, romantic in a sense. Is Ezekiel "The One"? Is he Neo? It's possible, but it's more likely he develops knee/leg issues next season and has a down year.

 

 

Edited by pikerbkb
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