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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, pikerbkb said:

This is cherry picking in the highest order, plus you had to go back a decade just to find guys. I was going by recent memory. These are are exceptions to the rule. You could make a list 10 times this long of RBs who started out promising and fell off a cliff after a couple of seasons.

 

Can EE sustain this pace and match these historic all-timers? Yes, it's possible, but unlikely. Can he beat the odds? Sure. He's looked great so far and is in a system that is tailored made for him sustain production, but the odds are against him sustaining this level of usage and production long term. This is just reality.

 

Do I count on Jerra & Co. doing the smart thing and finding a true complimentary back to pair with Zeke? No, I don't, at least not next season. I am just saying what the smart thing would be for him to do. You and @psygolf are counting on him to be on par with Emmitt, Walter and L.T. It's a very lofty notion, romantic in a sense. Is Ezekiel "The One"? Is he Neo? It's possible, but it's more likely he develops knee/leg issues next season and has a down year.

 

 

 

  While i understand the direction you're going here with Zeke's overall use to date, i just think the NFL winning window for most teams is so small, and so is the RB production window;  I don't see how its going to be justified on game days in the next 2-4 seasons to not give Zeke all the work he could possibly handle.  Let him show signs of breaking down or slowing down. Then evaluate.  I do agree with you at this pace its possible he could break down sooner then most.  But thats just the NFL life of a true three down work horse.  Ride em hard and put them up wet.  See Murray 2014.   Anytime i see Zeke leave the football field all i can ask is, WHY?   Unless its simply to catch his breath, or tape up an ankle, you want to force feed the premier players in this league early and often.  The quickest way for an OC to lose his job would be to do otherwise.  I do agree with you i'd like to see a compliment third down back here behind Zeke.  All while keeping a guy like Rod Smith as a early down back up.  A name i've heard the Cowboys had interest in years back on draft day and could this offseason for cheap is RB Corey Grant from JAX.  Its not going to move anyones needle very far, but thats exactly the kind of RB i'd like to see used as a third down type RB, If by chance Zeke needs to leave the field.   Of course, he's returning from injury so who knows.

 

Also, as much as i love Emmitt Smith and respect guys like LT/Walter, i don't see how its a lofty notion to think Zeke's talent level and situation are far off from these names.  His numbers through three seasons point directly at that kind of production/durability, TBH.    Injuries are hard to predict though, so who knows.  But so far Zeke has been the furthest thing from fragile under a heavy load. Similar to those names you mentioned.   

Edited by BlakeP42

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59 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

 You could make a list 10 times this long of RBs who started out promising and fell off a cliff after a couple of seasons.

 

I’d like to see that list, rbs that averaged the same amount of carries as Elliott, then fell off after 4 years... you can cherry pick all you want.

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3 hours ago, pikerbkb said:

This is cherry picking in the highest order, plus you had to go back a decade just to find guys. I was going by recent memory. These are are exceptions to the rule. You could make a list 10 times this long of RBs who started out promising and fell off a cliff after a couple of seasons.

 

Can EE sustain this pace and match these historic all-timers? Yes, it's possible, but unlikely. Can he beat the odds? Sure. He's looked great so far and is in a system that is tailored made for him sustain production, but the odds are against him sustaining this level of usage and production long term. This is just reality.

 

Do I count on Jerra & Co. doing the smart thing and finding a true complimentary back to pair with Zeke? No, I don't, at least not next season. I am just saying what the smart thing would be for him to do. You and @psygolf are counting on him to be on par with Emmitt, Walter and L.T. It's a very lofty notion, romantic in a sense. Is Ezekiel "The One"? Is he Neo? It's possible, but it's more likely he develops knee/leg issues next season and has a down year.

 

 

 

Okay, so I don't understand you went the route of being antagonistic instead of just having a discussion.

 

First, I didn't cherry pick anything. I read your statement about never seeing a RB get the kind of usage (carries) that Elliott has had in his first three years. So I wondered, "Hmm...I wonder if he has a point." Then I went to look. I didn't know how to go about getting data on all RBs, so I just went down the list of the top ~30 rushers in NFL history to see if any of them had the same type of usage. The ones that did are the ones I posted, and since I have no skin in this game, I thought you'd be interested in those numbers. I guess I was wrong. The rest did not, and the list that did not was longer than the list that did. So you can accuse me of cherry-picking all you like, but that doesn't make you correct. 

 

Why does going back more than 10 years matter? You said you don't remember anyone having that many carries in their first three years. You said nothing about recent memory or in the last decade or anything of that sort. I don't know how old you are, so I don't know how far back your memory goes. 

 

The making of a list 10 times as long of RBs who started off well and then fell off the cliff is just a strawman...it's not the topic of discussion. 

 

I don't care about EE's reality. Seriously...I don't. Nowhere in my post did I argue that EE's reality is that anything is guaranteed (or even suggested) for him past these first three seasons. I simply posted factual data. No conjecture...no subjectivity. Just found RBs that had a similar usage to EE and posted it. Nothing but facts. 

 

And please refrain from putting words in my mouth (or on my keyboard). I'm not counting on EE being on par with anyone. That is simply you reading something into a post that wasn't there. I couldn't care any less about EE. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and I cannot stand the Cowboys. I have no investment in him and frankly don't give care how his career unfolds from here. I was simply reading his thread and read your post and wondered if there have been any other RBs with a similar usage. 

Edited by Flyman75

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He probably has a better chance of being suspended before he runs out of gas anyway...

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6 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Okay, so I don't understand you went the route of being antagonistic instead of just having a discussion.

 

First, I didn't cherry pick anything. I read your statement about never seeing a RB get the kind of usage (carries) that Elliott has had in his first three years. So I wondered, "Hmm...I wonder if he has a point." Then I went to look. I didn't know how to go about getting data on all RBs, so I just went down the list of the top ~30 rushers in NFL history to see if any of them had the same type of usage. The ones that did are the ones I posted, and since I have no skin in this game, I thought you'd be interested in those numbers. I guess I was wrong. The rest did not, and the list that did not was longer than the list that did. So you can accuse me of cherry-picking all you like, but that doesn't make you correct. 

 

Why does going back more than 10 years matter? You said you don't remember anyone having that many carries in their first three years. You said nothing about recent memory or in the last decade or anything of that sort. I don't know how old you are, so I don't know how far back your memory goes. 

 

The making of a list 10 times as long of RBs who started off well and then fell off the cliff is just a strawman...it's not the topic of discussion. 

 

I don't care about EE's reality. Seriously...I don't. Nowhere in my post did I argue that EE's reality is that anything is guaranteed (or even suggested) for him past these first three seasons. I simply posted factual data. No conjecture...no subjectivity. Just found RBs that had a similar usage to EE and posted it. Nothing but facts. 

 

And please refrain from putting words in my mouth (or on my keyboard). I'm not counting on EE being on par with anyone. That is simply you reading something into a post that wasn't there. I couldn't care any less about EE. I don't own him in any fantasy leagues, and I cannot stand the Cowboys. I have no investment in him and frankly don't give care how his career unfolds from here. I was simply reading his thread and read your post and wondered if there have been any other RBs with a similar usage. 

So if someone shows a little emotion in a debate they become "agnostic"? Dude, don't take anything I've said personally. Was not attacking you at all. I like debating and discussing. No need to become defensive. Not putting words in anyone's mouth. Just thought you had an opinion on the subject psygolf and I were debating on. I made the assumption that you were on the side of psygolf as well. My bad I guess.

 

And "cherry-pick" is just a term and it's what you appeared to do(my opinion), but I was wrong. I just assumed you were using information you provided to prove a point, like "if these all-stars could do it, EE could do it as well", something like that.

 

Thanks for providing the information bud, seriously. I was just to lazy to look until after you did. Some very helpful stats on Pro Football Reference. It's hard to pick out the pan-flashers though.

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21 hours ago, psygolf said:

I’d like to see that list, rbs that averaged the same amount of carries as Elliott, then fell off after 4 years... you can cherry pick all you want.

I bet you would, but I never inferred anything along the lines of your narrow view. And if you think that what I said was cherry picking you don't know what the word means.

 

There are a long list of RBs who came out of college with plenty of promise popped for a year, got everyone excited, then busted. There are also many who played back up for a year or so, undiscovered and when they got their chance they initially produced only to flame out shortly thereafter. 

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6 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

I bet you would, but I never inferred anything along the lines of your narrow view. And if you think that what I said was cherry picking you don't know what the word means.

 

There are a long list of RBs who came out of college with plenty of promise popped for a year, got everyone excited, then busted. 

 

Who is on this list?

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1 hour ago, pikerbkb said:

I bet you would, but I never inferred anything along the lines of your narrow view. And if you think that what I said was cherry picking you don't know what the word means.

 

There are a long list of RBs who came out of college with plenty of promise popped for a year, got everyone excited, then busted. There are also many who played back up for a year or so, undiscovered and when they got their chance they initially produced only to flame out shortly thereafter. 

You are worried about Elliott burning out, a rb that has carried 20 carries per game for the past 3 years, I'm saying that there isn't a long list of young rbs that have crashed because of a comparable load...like you insinuated.   

 

The point  >>>  stop worrying, he can handle it.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Who is on this list?

it doesn't matter...Elliott is not a one-year wonder.

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34 minutes ago, psygolf said:

it doesn't matter...Elliott is not a one-year wonder.

 

Yeah Zeke is great. Still wanna know who is on the list.

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4 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Who is on this list?

Okay. Gonna make me work to prove something that's just inherently true.....Try to dig a little today. Off the top of my head? Some guys that had a handful (approx.1-3) of good seasons and crashed.....

 

Lendale White 

Ahman Green 

Kevin Jones 

Laurence Maroney

Kevin Smith

Jamal Anderson

Ron Dayne

Larry Johnson

Mike Anderson

Dominick Davis

Christian Okoye

Chris Johnson

Willie Parker

Ickey Woods

Gale Sayers (sort of)

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Ron Dayne

 

This is kind of fun, but do I need to go on here? holla @psygolf

 

Edited by pikerbkb

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3 hours ago, psygolf said:

You are worried about Elliott burning out, a rb that has carried 20 carries per game for the past 3 years, I'm saying that there isn't a long list of young rbs that have crashed because of a comparable load...like you insinuated.   

 

The point  >>>  stop worrying, he can handle it. :lol: Not worried about anything.

Stop getting caught up in exact time frames. Who cares if it was one year or three years? You are constantly trying to box this debate into exact time frames. Like almost everything in life, NFL careers aren't linear. You just seem mostly concerned about being right, rather than having a discussion . Okay, just named a bunch of mostly "young RBs". Again, no worries here. Just concerned by people's lack of common sense and judgement. TBC not anyone on this thread, just the Cowboys braintrust.

 

Forgot TRich.

Edited by pikerbkb

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17 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Okay. Gonna make me work to prove something that's just inherently true.....Try to dig a little today. Off the top of my head? Some guys that had a handful (approx.1-3) of good seasons and crashed.....

 

Lendale White 

Ahman Green 

Kevin Jones 

Laurence Maroney

Kevin Smith

Jamal Anderson

Ron Dayne

Larry Johnson

Mike Anderson

Dominick Davis

Christian Okoye

Chris Johnson

Willie Parker

Ickey Woods

Gale Sayers (sort of)

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Ron Dayne

 

This is kind of fun, but do I need to go on here? holla @psygolf

 

 

A lot of those guys just got hurt or weren't very good to begin with.  Apples and oranges. But appreciate the effort.

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8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

A lot of those guys just got hurt or weren't very good to begin with.  Apples and oranges. But appreciate the effort.

A lot of people didn't think Emmitt Smith was very good coming out of college. (A lot of people still don't) But thanks for the lack of effort.

Edited by pikerbkb

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25 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Stop getting caught up in exact time frames. Who cares if it was one year or three years? You are constantly trying to box this debate into exact time frames. Like almost everything in life, NFL careers aren't linear. You just seem mostly concerned about being right, rather than having a discussion . Okay, just named a bunch of mostly "young RBs". Again, no worries here. Just concerned by people's lack of common sense and judgement. TBC not anyone on this thread, just the Cowboys braintrust.

 

Forgot TRich.

You can’t ignore Elliott’s first 3 years, why?  Because you asked for a history of rbs that started with a similar work load.

 

You just didn’t like the results of the list.

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40 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

Okay. Gonna make me work to prove something that's just inherently true.....Try to dig a little today. Off the top of my head? Some guys that had a handful (approx.1-3) of good seasons and crashed.....

 

Lendale White 

Ahman Green 

Kevin Jones 

Laurence Maroney

Kevin Smith

Jamal Anderson

Ron Dayne

Larry Johnson

Mike Anderson

Dominick Davis

Christian Okoye

Chris Johnson

Willie Parker

Ickey Woods

Gale Sayers (sort of)

Cadillac Williams

Ronnie Brown

Ron Dayne

 

This is kind of fun, but do I need to go on here? holla @psygolf

 

Huge joke above

 

How many of these guys averaged 20+ carries per game for multiple seasons to start their careers?

 

And how many were considered elite??

Edited by psygolf

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15 minutes ago, pikerbkb said:

A lot of people didn't think Emmitt Smith was very good coming out of college. (A lot of people still don't) But thanks for the lack of effort.

 

You want me to go through your entire list or garbage players and tell you why each situation is different?

 

No thanks. But most of those guys aren't relevant to Zeke in any way.

Edited by dmb3684

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

Huge joke above

 

How many of these guys averaged 20+ carries per game for multiple seasons to start their careers?

 

And how many were considered elite??

 

It is a largely useless list as it relates to this conversation.

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Now if Elliott had hit the “400 carries kiss of death.”

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I see Elliott in the same mold of Sanders, EGeorge, Smith, Payton, Alexander, Lynch, etc.

 

elusive + physical + talent = a good chance to be able to handle 300-340 carries and produce until the age of 28 or so.

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6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

I see Elliott in the same mold of Sanders, EGeorge, Smith, Payton, Alexander, Lynch, etc.

 

elusive + physical + talent = a good chance to be able to handle 300-340 carries and produce until the age of 28 or so.

 

If Zeke stays healthy he'll end up better than Alexander, Beastmode and George IMO

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1 minute ago, psygolf said:

I see Elliott in the same mold of Sanders, EGeorge, Smith, Payton, Alexander, Lynch, etc.

 

elusive + physical + talent = a good chance to be able to handle 300-340 carries and produce until the age of 28 or so.

I totally agree that he has a chance to be a great one. I'm not debating that. I'm saying that he has been very lucky/fortunate so far. An anomaly in his first three years. All the great ones are outliers. We won't know until several years down the road. It's easy for you guys to be dismissive of my opinion now since Zeke is just rolling. We'll see if he can keep it up. My main point is the smart thing to do is have a complimentary RB. For a lot of reasons.

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1 minute ago, pikerbkb said:

I totally agree that he has a chance to be a great one. I'm not debating that. I'm saying that he has been very lucky/fortunate so far. An anomaly in his first three years. All the great ones are outliers. We won't know until several years down the road. It's easy for you guys to be dismissive of my opinion now since Zeke is just rolling. We'll see if he can keep it up. My main point is the smart thing to do is have a complimentary RB. For a lot of reasons.

Psst...those rbs didn’t become great after retirement, lol.

 

(and they didn’t need complimentary rb partners)

 

Elliott is already great.

Edited by psygolf

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Just now, dmb3684 said:

 

If Zeke stays healthy he'll end up better than Alexander, Beastmode and George IMO

I'm not debating this. I actually agree. The "if healthy" part is the biggest concern. A lot of those RBs on my list could have been very good. Jamal Anderson was excellent until he injured his knee. Was never the same. Ickey Woods. Dominick Davis. Both excellent backs brought down by injury. They're not all JAGs.

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