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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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Zeke is a very risky #3 selection. He could end up a L. Bell and then you are just left with a Pollard if you get him because you know other owners are going to reach for him as well. 

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53 minutes ago, m_cox22 said:

How many people do you know that have signed contracts with their employer and don't show up for work 2 years before that agreement is up? Tell me how that's going for them.

 

Pretty good lately

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1 minute ago, CawCaw said:

Zeke is a very risky #3 selection. He could end up a L. Bell and then you are just left with a Pollard if you get him because you know other owners are going to reach for him as well. 

 

Agree with this.  But I think because of the Bell situation last season, the Zeke owner will purchase insurance with Tony Pollard.   Still risky but it can somewhat be mitigated.  And the upside is significant.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

When people say "$40 million guaranteed" it doesn't mean $40 million on top of base pay. It just means the first $40 million of that total is guaranteed. 

As in, 4 yrs x $15 million a year = $60 million. $40 million of that $60 million is guaranteed, so even if Zeke's legs fell off tomorrow JJ would be paying him $40 million. 

In almost every other pro sports league the entire contract is guaranteed. That's how football players get screwed. If Zeke signed for $100 million with no guarantees, he could get cut tomorrow and the Cowboys owe him nothing. 

This is NFL contracts 101. 

 

That’s what he should have said. That is not what he did say, unintentionally I’m sure.

 

Here’s Gurley’s contract:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

Note how it is broken out annually - it does not add up to ~$15M/yr every year.  It is a $4.2/yr guaranteed each year ($21M paid up front but spread over 5 years [and a carry over last year from the previous signing bonus]), some large roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 that also qualify as guaranteed money, and $950k annual salary last year, $5M annual salary this year, $5.5M annual salary next year, and $4M annual salary in 2021.

 

Gurley pocketed about $22M last year ($21M guaranteed signing for the new extension and $950K salary).  He’ll make $5M this year - annual salary only.  He can make $13.1M next year with the roster bonus and $5M annual salary.  He can make $9M the following year with the $5M roster bonus and $4M salary, and then there is an option year in 2022.

 

See how that doesn’t add up to anything like $15M annual salary?  That gets him his high guarantees but also protects the team in the event that he were not able to play after this year for some reason.  That’s cap management.

Edited by Bronco Billy

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1 minute ago, K197040 said:

 

Agree with this.  But I think because of the Bell situation last season, the Zeke owner will purchase insurance with Tony Pollard.   Still risky but it can somewhat be mitigated.  And the upside is significant.

I agree, but I also think if you reach for Zeke that high you better be prepared to over stretch for Pollard because if you don't get him and another owner does than you could be screwed.

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16 minutes ago, vthokie3 said:

Zeke over CMC if he signs?

 

If the folks at 105.3 FAN are to believe, they are reporting he is booked to return from Cabo tomorrow which means things might be getting down to the wire. We will see, but one of my drafts is this upcoming Monday going from the 2 slot and would take him no doubt over CMC in my opinion.

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1 minute ago, CawCaw said:

I agree, but I also think if you reach for Zeke that high you better be prepared to over stretch for Pollard because if you don't get him and another owner does than you could be screwed.

 

100%.   And you have to be prepared for less than Zeke production.   And a timeshare to some degree.

And if Zeke does play, I think he does lose some 3rd down work to Pollard. 

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1 minute ago, TT215 said:

 

If the folks at 105.3 FAN are to believe, they are reporting he is booked to return from Cabo tomorrow which means things might be getting down to the wire. We will see, but one of my drafts is this upcoming Monday going from the 2 slot and would take him no doubt over CMC in my opinion.

Sadly my draft is tomorrow at noon so might still be up in the air at that point

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I mean OJ is tweeting, telling him to keep it all about the money. What better advice can he get?!

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, owenmills said:

 

He has to provide services though. Sure a player can get lazy once he gets paid. It's happened plenty. A player can't take his guaranteed money and not provide services though, or he's giving it all back.

 

OK, let's define services.  Does he have to show up?  Of course.  But the services that the player provides, that he is being paid for, is to play at or better than his current level of play (or at least competently).  If he decides to show up and suck, he's not providing the service that the team should be receiving for the guaranteed money that they have to give him.  

The team is putting into their contract that they will pay him x amount of money, even if his skill drops off and they have to cut him.  That is worth something.  Quite a lot, actually. 

I get no such guarantees at my job.  My company doesn't say "Hey, if you do crappy work for us and we fire you, we'll still give you 50% of your pay.".  No, they fire me and I get nothing.  If my company said they would give me 50% of my pay guaranteed but they don't want me leaving until the contract is up, I might be willing to do that.  If I wanted the flexibility to go out to the market and get a raise every year, then I wouldn't agree to this.  I'd ask for 1 year contracts every year.  It's a free country.

Edited by Brownsfan74

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6 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

That’s what he should have said. That is not what he did say, unintentionally I’m sure.

 

Here’s Gurley’s contract:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/los-angeles-rams/todd-gurley-16734/

 

Note how it is broken out annually - it does not add up to ~$15M/yr every year.  It is a $4.2/yr guaranteed each year ($21M paid up front but spread over 5 years [and a carry over last year from the previous signing bonus]), some large roster bonuses in 2020 and 2021 that also qualify as guaranteed money, and $950k annual salary last year, $5M annual salary this year, $5.5M annual salary next year, and $4M annual salary in 2021.

 

Gurley pocketed about $22M last year ($21M guaranteed signing for the new extension and $950K salary).  He’ll make $5M this year - annual salary only.  He can make $13.1M next year with the roster bonus and $5M annual salary.  He can make $9M the following year with the $5M roster bonus and $4M salary, and then there is an option year in 2022.

 

See how that doesn’t add up to anything like $15M annual salary?  That gets him his high guarantees but also protects the team in the event that he were not able to play after this year for some reason.  That’s cap management.

 

Not done being wrong I see

 

 “The Dallas Cowboys reportedly offered holdout Ezekiel Elliott a contract that would make him the second-highest paid running back in the NFL.

ESPN's Ed Werder reported Thursday the proposal would land Elliott between the Los Angeles Rams' Todd Gurley ($14.4 million average, per Spotrac) and the New York Jets' Le'Veon Bell ($13.1 million).”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2850691-ezekiel-elliott-contract-rumors-cowboys-offer-2nd-most-valuable-rb-deal-in-nfl.amp.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

The team is putting into their contract that they will pay him x amount of money, even if his skill drops off and they have to cut him.  That is worth something.  Quite a lot, actually. 

 

It is worth something. It's worth whatever the amount of guaranteed money is. But it's the only part of the contract that is really worth anything, from the players perspective. It's not some extra bonus, it IS the contract. Anyways, I'm not going to contribute to this thread going off-topic anymore about the fairness/unfairness of NFL contracts. 

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Just now, owenmills said:

 

It is worth something. It's worth whatever the amount of guaranteed money is. But it's the only part of the contract that is really worth anything, from the players perspective. It's not some extra bonus, it IS the contract. Anyways, I'm not going to contribute to this thread going off-topic anymore about the fairness/unfairness of NFL contracts. 

 

Fair enough.  I'm still trying to decipher Bronco Billy's post.

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Not done being wrong I see

 

 “The Dallas Cowboys reportedly offered holdout Ezekiel Elliott a contract that would make him the second-highest paid running back in the NFL.

ESPN's Ed Werder reported Thursday the proposal would land Elliott between the Los Angeles Rams' Todd Gurley ($14.4 million average, per Spotrac) and the New York Jets' Le'Veon Bell ($13.1 million).”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2850691-ezekiel-elliott-contract-rumors-cowboys-offer-2nd-most-valuable-rb-deal-in-nfl.amp.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So Werder is lazy in his reporting and that makes me wrong?  I cited the Spotrac numbers and laid the whole thing out.  What didn’t you understand (serious question - not being snarky).

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14 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

See how that doesn’t add up to anything like $15M annual salary?  That gets him his high guarantees but also protects the team in the event that he were not able to play after this year for some reason.  That’s cap management.

 

Yearly averages is a benchmark all players and agents use. It's the benchmark media uses when discussing contracts. It's literally as simple as $57,500,000 ÷ 4, regardless of how it is split up yearly.

A 4yr/15m a year , 40 guaranteed deal like Impreza was discussing would be a 4 year, $60,000,000, with $40 million guaranteed. Not a $100 million dollar contract. Would make him the highest paid yearly over Gurley's 14.4.

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Just now, Bronco Billy said:

 

So Werder is lazy in his reporting and that makes me wrong?  I cited the Spotrac numbers and laid the whole thing out.  What didn’t you understand (serious question - not being snarky).

First let’s start with this-  do u understand what I mean by saying 15M/yr with 40 guaranteed?  You don’t add them together. 

4/60 with 40 guaranteed makes a lot of sense.  Players care about 2 numbers-  yearly salary and guarantee.  This would make Zeke the highest paid on a yearly basis but lower guaranteed total.   How exactly they structure the bonuses and incentives is what needs to be worked out.  To me that’s a sign they’re getting close.  

Both sides can justify these figures as a win and they can get back to the business of preparing for the season.  

 

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10 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

First let’s start with this-  do u understand what I mean by saying 15M/yr with 40 guaranteed?  You don’t add them together. 

4/60 with 40 guaranteed makes a lot of sense.  Players care about 2 numbers-  yearly salary and guarantee.  This would make Zeke the highest paid on a yearly basis but lower guaranteed total.   How exactly they structure the bonuses and incentives is what needs to be worked out.  To me that’s a sign they’re getting close.  

Both sides can justify these figures as a win and they can get back to the business of preparing for the season.  

 

 

Agree with this totally.  They can bridge the gap by giving a higher salary and less guaranteed money.  Both sides win...Zeke gets the opportunity to make more money than Gurley by performing, and the Cowboys lower their financial risk and are more likely to get what they pay for.

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32 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So Werder is lazy in his reporting and that makes me wrong?  I cited the Spotrac numbers and laid the whole thing out.  What didn’t you understand (serious question - not being snarky).

 

Not being snarky here either.  But anytime I'm about to tell someone they're wrong on a message board and back it up with numbers, I double check to make sure I have everything correct.   Just Googling, "NFL guaranteed money" would have done it in this case.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

First let’s start with this-  do u understand what I mean by saying 15M/yr with 40 guaranteed?  You don’t add them together. 

4/60 with 40 guaranteed makes a lot of sense.  Players care about 2 numbers-  yearly salary and guarantee.  This would make Zeke the highest paid on a yearly basis but lower guaranteed total.   How exactly they structure the bonuses and incentives is what needs to be worked out.  To me that’s a sign they’re getting close.  

Both sides can justify these figures as a win and they can get back to the business of preparing for the season.  

 

Just to clarify it isn't actually the yearly salary, but the average annual salary over the length of the contract. Yearly salary numbers differ quite a bit based on how the contract was written.

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I'm almost certain billy was discussing guaranteed contracts in another thread a week or two ago. Or maybe it was this same one.

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by CABLE87
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3 hours ago, devaster said:

I'll never understand fans that treat athletes completely different from how they would handle their own employment issues.

Yeah, me neither. You would think fans would relate to their bosses having plenty of money, and that the "employees" that want to get paid what they're worth should get that money.

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2 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

OK, let's define services.  Does he have to show up?  Of course.  But the services that the player provides, that he is being paid for, is to play at or better than his current level of play (or at least competently).  If he decides to show up and suck, he's not providing the service that the team should be receiving for the guaranteed money that they have to give him.  

The team is putting into their contract that they will pay him x amount of money, even if his skill drops off and they have to cut him.  That is worth something.  Quite a lot, actually. 

I get no such guarantees at my job.  My company doesn't say "Hey, if you do crappy work for us and we fire you, we'll still give you 50% of your pay.".  No, they fire me and I get nothing.  If my company said they would give me 50% of my pay guaranteed but they don't want me leaving until the contract is up, I might be willing to do that.  If I wanted the flexibility to go out to the market and get a raise every year, then I wouldn't agree to this.  I'd ask for 1 year contracts every year.  It's a free country.

Again, stop comparing your life to those of NFL players. NFL players are OBJECTIVELY WORTH WAY MORE MONEY THAN YOU ARE, and are at risk for severe head trauma that will potentially render them unable to earn money for the last two-thirds of their life. You are not. It's a stupid comparison. Guaranteed money is extremely important to NFL players. If they get 8 concussions, they can't just get another job. You don't have that risk. You can.

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Just now, miasma16 said:

Again, stop comparing your life to those of NFL players. NFL players are OBJECTIVELY WORTH WAY MORE MONEY THAN YOU ARE, and are at risk for severe head trauma that will potentially render them unable to earn money for the last two-thirds of their life. You are not. It's a stupid comparison. Guaranteed money is extremely important to NFL players. If they get 8 concussions, they can't just get another job. You don't have that risk. You can.

 

You missed the point of my post entirely.  I am saying that guaranteed money is worth a lot.

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This isn't an issue of Zeke vs. owners.  This is an issue of Zeke vs. his own union.  His own union is who put together this system which, outside of professional sports, has no real comparison.  That union agrees to things like caps and non-fully guaranteed contracts.  In return it gets things like "veteran's minimums" (there's another thing nobody has in their run-of-the-mill job), pensions (rare in the private sector these days), etc.

For the truly top guys at each position, the union tends to hurt them.  (If Lebron was a free agent five years ago, and there was no collective bargaining - which sets up the salary cap - wouldn't he have been worth about $100 million per year?)  For the JAGs who are just holding on, things like the veteran's minimum is huge.  

Zeke may rage against the machine, but the machine is the deal his union negotiated.

Put another way, if there was no salary cap, do you think there's any chance in hell Jerry Jones wouldn't just pay the guy?  An extra $2 million a year means nothing to Jerry Jones.  It's cap money that is the problem.

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