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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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20 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

So, from what I can tell, we are looking at Zeke missing between 0-8 games.

Maybe we should be splitting the difference and valuing Zeke at 12 games?  If he signs early, great.  If he misses 8, then you didn't get totally screwed because you assumed only 12 games, not 16.

Where would you take him if you were guaranteed he would play 12 games?

This is the conversation we need to be having.  And I think 3rd rd snake draft/low to mid 30s auction is fair value under this assumption

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Does anyone find Zeke’s situation this year and Bell’s situation last year to be eerily similar?

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Just now, fruitjacket said:

I'ts my understanding that Zeke could sit out the year and be out of his contract, in which case he hits the open market and can get Gurley money.

If that's true, then I can totally see him doing that.

Not even remotely close to true

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Just now, fruitjacket said:

I'ts my understanding that Zeke could sit out the year and be out of his contract, in which case he hits the open market and can get Gurley money.

If that's true, then I can totally see him doing that.

 

2 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:

If people keep comping the Zeke situation to Leveon last year, I'm going to jump out the window.  They're not the same AT ALL

 

/fin

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12 minutes ago, scheibler said:

What other teams would even pay that much for Zeek? Houston comes to mind, but they need lineman more then a rb. F this guy. I'd pull a Robert craft and lower my offer

 

I agree.  Yes, he's been a good player.  But he's also been a constant distraction with his off-field stuff.  He's been given a great offer and is turning his nose at it just because he thinks he deserves to be the highest paid RB.

If I were Jerry I'd seriously reduce the offer and let him sit all season.  I'd let him sit next year too then kiss him goodbye.  Then go ahead and pay Dak and Cooper.

RB's are VERY replaceable and these guys don't get it.  Look at the Patriots over the years.  Look at the Chiefs last year....They release Hunt and Williams basically comes off the Dolphins bench and starts putting up numbers.

As for fantasy, my draft is this weekend and Zeke is DND for me if he hasn't signed the dotted line.  I just don't see the point in taking the risk.  I'd much rather have anybody in the top 24 players at this point.  I'm just not willing to hamstring my lineup in the early season if he doesn't report on time.  In my league, 5 or 6 losses are you're probably out of the playoffs.  I don't want to start off 0-2 or something because I took Zeke with an early pick.

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Zeke owes every owner that drafted him money for fantasy. He is a loser and we are losers for drafting this clown in the first round.

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5 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:
26 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

So, from what I can tell, we are looking at Zeke missing between 0-8 games.

Maybe we should be splitting the difference and valuing Zeke at 12 games?  If he signs early, great.  If he misses 8, then you didn't get totally screwed because you assumed only 12 games, not 16.

Where would you take him if you were guaranteed he would play 12 games?

This is the conversation we need to be having.  And I think 3rd rd snake draft/low to mid 30s auction is fair value under this assumption

 

Fair enough, but what if you got Pollard in the draft?  Does that bump Zeke higher?

I ask because I would probably take 12-game Zeke at the end of the 1st, because I would really reach for Pollard.  I'm talking like 7-8th round.  That would hurt my depth at rb/wr but I'd get the Cowboys rushing attack all season.  I'd have to rely on waiver/FAAB to make up for burning that mid round pick on Pollard.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Performance based salary would be difficult.  There needs to be a way to judge a player's performance absent what his team / teammates did.  I don't know what metric you use.

It's the same issue with paying teachers based upon the performance of their students.  What if you have a student that just doesn't want to study?  Kinda unfair to cut a teacher's pay because the student is bad.

 

And how would injuries be treated?   Or if a coach wants to rest a star RB?   I can imagine it'd be a mess if Zeke needed 120 more yards to hit a benchmark but the coaches wanted to rest him in the last game.

I think it would be a mess.

Edited by K197040
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10 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Zeke owes every owner that drafted him money for fantasy. He is a loser and we are losers for drafting this clown in the first round.

 

The only Zeke owners losing if he holds out are the ones that didn't draft Pollard.  I'm not a huge handcuff guy but Melvin Gordon, Zeke, and Damien Williams owners have no one to blame but themselves if they didn't grab handcuffs.

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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Fair enough, but what if you got Pollard in the draft?  Does that bump Zeke higher?

I ask because I would probably take 12-game Zeke at the end of the 1st, because I would really reach for Pollard.  I'm talking like 7-8th round.  That would hurt my depth at rb/wr but I'd get the Cowboys rushing attack all season.  I'd have to rely on waiver/FAAB to make up for burning that mid round pick on Pollard.

I would take 12 game Zeke at the end of the 1st as well.  But we're not getting 12 game Zeke.  I think we're getting either 16 game Zeke (assuming health) or 6  game Zeke.  I get that you're sort of settling on 12 games as an "expected return" for what you're getting by your Zeke investment.  Problem with that is expected return assumes an even distribution of potential outcomes (6 games, 7 games,...16 games).  That isn't the case here.  It's binary.  He's either holding out or not.  If he is holding out, there's no reason to think he's coming back prior to week 10.  Therefore, the 12 game assumption, while I get it, doesn't really make sense here, at least to me.

That's why I say 3rd pick at the moment.  No doubt top of rd 1 talent downgraded to rd 3 to reflect the risk of hold out.  And I've been on board with the "just take Zeke in rd. 1 and reach for Pollard in order to own the Dallas backfield" thus far.  But I've always been thinking Zeke's holdout was going to end.  We're all just assuming that Pollard is a bellcow if Zeke holds out, but I don't really know why and have my doubts.  Unfortunately, I could very easily see Alf playing a significant role despite the fact that it's been radio silent on him.  At the very least, he could be the goal line.

That is why I'm beginning to fade the Draft Zeke and Reach for Pollard strategy.  Pollard might not be even half of Zeke and that risk has to start pricing into Zeke.  

 

 

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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

And how would injuries be treated?   Or if a coach wants to rest a star RB?   I can imagine it'd be a mess if Zeke needed 120 more yards to hit a benchmark but the coaches wanted to rest him in the last game.

I think it would be a mess.

 

Those on the field should get paid. If you are injured, you aren’t helping the team. They still get their base pay and any bonuses they hit before injury. Maybe workout bonuses, and team meeting/mentoring bonuses. 

They do have some performance based incentives on some players contracts, so yes, being pulled before benchmark could be an issue, but we already have players with benchmark incentives and I don’t recall those being an issue so far. Either the player doesn’t come close to it, or they blow past it. 

It would definitely need a lot of work to balance properly, but at this point, the current system is crap, so either keep cobbling the current one, or sandbox the performance pay a few years, then start working some form of it in. 

 

As with anything that’s a change, majority will hate it, but eventually it turns out better a lot of the time. One thing is for sure, change will always be needed in life, to keep ahead, or we get left behind. 

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2 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:

I would take 12 game Zeke at the end of the 1st as well.  But we're not getting 12 game Zeke.  I think we're getting either 16 game Zeke (assuming health) or 6  game Zeke.  I get that you're sort of settling on 12 games as an "expected return" for what you're getting by your Zeke investment.  Problem with that is expected return assumes an even distribution of potential outcomes (6 games, 7 games,...16 games).  That isn't the case here.  It's binary.  He's either holding out or not.  If he is holding out, there's no reason to think he's coming back prior to week 10.  Therefore, the 12 game assumption, while I get it, doesn't really make sense here, at least to me.

That's why I say 3rd pick at the moment.  No doubt top of rd 1 talent downgraded to rd 3 to reflect the risk of hold out.  And I've been on board with the "just take Zeke in rd. 1 and reach for Pollard in order to own the Dallas backfield" thus far.  But I've always been thinking Zeke's holdout was going to end.  We're all just assuming that Pollard is a bellcow if Zeke holds out, but I don't really know why and have my doubts.  Unfortunately, I could very easily see Alf playing a significant role despite the fact that it's been radio silent on him.  At the very least, he could be the goal line.

That is why I'm beginning to fade the Draft Zeke and Reach for Pollard strategy.  Pollard might not be even half of Zeke and that risk has to start pricing into Zeke.  

 

 

 

Fair enough.  Yes, I'm basing my logic on an evenly distributed probability of his return.  In other words, it's equally likely that he returns after missing 3 games as it is missing 7.  The reality could be that he's got like a 50% chance of missing only 0 games, but if he actually holds out, his probability of returning starts out very low (say 5% of missing only 1 game) and it gradually increases until we hit 8 games.  

I'm not good at math but I'm sure there's some way to get a true expected probability at x number of games.  I'm not that interested in Zeke to figure it out haha.

I know it's just preseason, but the Cowboys usage in games 2 and 3 would hint (strongly IMO) that Pollard is the guy over Alf and the bellcow.  In both games, Pollard started and didn't share with anyone.  Played all 3 downs.  Then, when he got taken out, Alf came in and Pollard never returned.  This doesn't look like a timeshare at all to me and I think Alf is clearly the backup.

It's true Pollard could be a preseason dynamo with the small sample size.  You're going on a bit of faith to assume he can do even 80% of what Zeke normally does.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Fair enough.  Yes, I'm basing my logic on an evenly distributed probability of his return.  In other words, it's equally likely that he returns after missing 3 games as it is missing 7.  The reality could be that he's got like a 50% chance of missing only 0 games, but if he actually holds out, his probability of returning starts out very low (say 5% of missing only 1 game) and it gradually increases until we hit 8 games.  

I'm not good at math but I'm sure there's some way to get a true expected probability at x number of games.  I'm not that interested in Zeke to figure it out haha.

I know it's just preseason, but the Cowboys usage in games 2 and 3 would hint (strongly IMO) that Pollard is the guy over Alf and the bellcow.  In both games, Pollard started and didn't share with anyone.  Played all 3 downs.  Then, when he got taken out, Alf came in and Pollard never returned.  This doesn't look like a timeshare at all to me and I think Alf is clearly the backup.

It's true Pollard could be a preseason dynamo with the small sample size.  You're going on a bit of faith to assume he can do even 80% of what Zeke normally does.

 

 

yep I agree with all this.  Pollard APPEARS to be a bellcow but I'm not convinced Alf doesn't have a role.  Honestly, would probably make more sense to use both backs if Zeke is holding out.  So my hopes for Pollard aren't as high.

And regarding your logic, you are doing that math right if you are assuming an equally likely chance that he returns after each week of the season.  I don't believe that to be true though, which is what I was trying to say in my previous post.  I think it's closer to the second scenario you describe (more binary).  Interesting enough thought exercise though

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33 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:

I would take 12 game Zeke at the end of the 1st as well.  But we're not getting 12 game Zeke.  I think we're getting either 16 game Zeke (assuming health) or 6  game Zeke.  I get that you're sort of settling on 12 games as an "expected return" for what you're getting by your Zeke investment.  Problem with that is expected return assumes an even distribution of potential outcomes (6 games, 7 games,...16 games).  That isn't the case here.  It's binary.  He's either holding out or not.  If he is holding out, there's no reason to think he's coming back prior to week 10.  Therefore, the 12 game assumption, while I get it, doesn't really make sense here, at least to me.

That's why I say 3rd pick at the moment.  No doubt top of rd 1 talent downgraded to rd 3 to reflect the risk of hold out.  And I've been on board with the "just take Zeke in rd. 1 and reach for Pollard in order to own the Dallas backfield" thus far.  But I've always been thinking Zeke's holdout was going to end.  We're all just assuming that Pollard is a bellcow if Zeke holds out, but I don't really know why and have my doubts.  Unfortunately, I could very easily see Alf playing a significant role despite the fact that it's been radio silent on him.  At the very least, he could be the goal line.

That is why I'm beginning to fade the Draft Zeke and Reach for Pollard strategy.  Pollard might not be even half of Zeke and that risk has to start pricing into Zeke.  

 

 

 

How do u figure?   Jerry could decide enough is enough ANY WEEK

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

 

How do u figure?   Jerry could decide enough is enough ANY WEEK

True.  I just think that if Jerry were going to cave he'd do so before week 1.  I don't see a high likelihood of him caving if they're sitting at 3-0 as other posters have mentioned is probable.  Obviously I could be wrong.  But feels like week 1 or week 10 to me.

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8 minutes ago, ThunderDan said:

yep I agree with all this.  Pollard APPEARS to be a bellcow but I'm not convinced Alf doesn't have a role.  Honestly, would probably make more sense to use both backs if Zeke is holding out.  So my hopes for Pollard aren't as high.

And regarding your logic, you are doing that math right if you are assuming an equally likely chance that he returns after each week of the season.  I don't believe that to be true though, which is what I was trying to say in my previous post.  I think it's closer to the second scenario you describe (more binary).  Interesting enough thought exercise though

1) Alf sucks

2) Pollard has been the bellcow all preseason, Jerry himself has been hyping him up.  And the tape looks darn good.

3) I would never handcuff Fournette or Saquon, but some players/situations really warrant it.  This is one of them, along with LAC and KC.

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22 minutes ago, Raynestorm said:

the current system is crap

It's really not.

Rookie contracts are tough, but better than when the #1 pick was becoming the highest paid player in the league year after year.

Only 1st round picks come with a team option for the 5th year.  The way that option is priced should be adjusted - currently it's based on position instead of draft slot, so the team option on Zeke is based on him being a RB instead of the 4th pick.  So the option on Paxton Lynch, 26th pick that year, would be higher than Zeke's because Lynch is a QB.  That should be changed. 

The franchise tag situation obviously needs some changes, as we're only going to get more "holdouts" (not really - actually just refusal to sign the contract) in the future.  But even then, it's really not that bad.  The Bell situation, like Cousins before him, of repeated tagging is an exception not the norm.  Players are getting smarter about managing their careers and exercising the leverage they have.

There are pros and cons to the current CBA, but going to strictly performance based salary: 1) would NEVER be agreed to by the NFLPA, and 2) would have ridiculous negative effects on gameplay.  You want every player to turn into AB personality wise?  Has anyone ever worked a commission only job?  It sucks for all but 5% of the employees.

There are some minor tweaks to be made, both mentioned and unmentioned here, but radically altering contract structures wouldn't have the positive effects most of us, players, and ownership desire.

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2 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

I was thinking about this recently. Rookie deals shouldn’t be more than 3 years tops.

 

Agreed.  4-5 years of a rookie deal plus multiple franchise tag options is the entirety of most careers.    Zeke and Gordon are making the only plays they have available if they want that second contract with any kind of security net (guarantees).   Or they’ll ride u hard and put u away wet whenever they find another promising rook.  

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4 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Agreed.  4-5 years of a rookie deal plus multiple franchise tag options is the entirety of most careers.    Zeke and Gordon are making the only plays they have available if they want that second contract with any kind of security net (guarantees).   Or they’ll ride u hard and put u away wet whenever they find another promising rook.  

I get the logic behind Gordon.  Wants the new contract before they can franchise him.  But I don't get everybody backing Zeke with 2 years left.  When he came into the league I think he was paid as a top 5 rb without ever taking a snap.

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1 hour ago, ThunderDan said:

This is the conversation we need to be having.  And I think 3rd rd snake draft/low to mid 30s auction is fair value under this assumption

If we were guaranteed Zeke would sign by week 4 it wouldn't impact his ADP one slot. Well maybe 1 if you have him in the top 3. He wouldn't slip past 4. Not a chance in hell he slips to the third round. 

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58 minutes ago, oban14 said:

 

The only Zeke owners losing if he holds out are the ones that didn't draft Pollard.  I'm not a huge handcuff guy but Melvin Gordon, Zeke, and Damien Williams owners have no one to blame but themselves if they didn't grab handcuffs.

Pollard sucks and is no zeke. He was marginal against scrubs in preseason. 

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9 minutes ago, youngrice said:

I get the logic behind Gordon.  Wants the new contract before they can franchise him.  But I don't get everybody backing Zeke with 2 years left.  When he came into the league I think he was paid as a top 5 rb without ever taking a snap.

 

Zekes salary is 3.8M this season.    Top 5 or not that’s woefully under compensated.   

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Pollard sucks and is no zeke. He was marginal against scrubs in preseason. 

He played with the first team and averaged 5.6 yds a carry. 

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Zekes salary is 3.8M this season.    Top 5 or not that’s woefully under compensated.   

 

What about that nice signing bonus.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Fair enough.  Yes, I'm basing my logic on an evenly distributed probability of his return.  In other words, it's equally likely that he returns after missing 3 games as it is missing 7.  The reality could be that he's got like a 50% chance of missing only 0 games, but if he actually holds out, his probability of returning starts out very low (say 5% of missing only 1 game) and it gradually increases until we hit 8 games.  

I'm not good at math but I'm sure there's some way to get a true expected probability at x number of games.  I'm not that interested in Zeke to figure it out haha.

I know it's just preseason, but the Cowboys usage in games 2 and 3 would hint (strongly IMO) that Pollard is the guy over Alf and the bellcow.  In both games, Pollard started and didn't share with anyone.  Played all 3 downs.  Then, when he got taken out, Alf came in and Pollard never returned.  This doesn't look like a timeshare at all to me and I think Alf is clearly the backup.

It's true Pollard could be a preseason dynamo with the small sample size.  You're going on a bit of faith to assume he can do even 80% of what Zeke normally does.

 

 

 

It’s like one of the old examples regarding risk. Here’s your two choices:

1) I give you $50

2) We flip a coin. If heads, I give you $100. If tails, I give you nothing.

Because of risk inherent in Option 2, Option 1 is the more valuable option, despite both options having equal expected value. 

In this situation with Zeke, the two most likely outcomes are that he either plays 16 games or 6 games (I’m making that up based on what seems to be thrown around right now; I don’t know for sure that 6 games is what he’d likely play if he holds out long-term). Based on this, he has an expected value of playing 11 games, but the likelihood of him actually playing 11 games is extremely small. It’s  going to be much closer to one extreme or the other (not completely binary like a coin flip, but much closer to that than an even distribution).

With all that said, you’re not getting Zeke for 11 games. You’re most likely either getting him for nearly a full season or only a very few weeks. If you say Zeke has an expected value of playing 11 weeks, that’s understating risk just like if you said you’re expected value in the coin flip example is $50.

 

Edit: To get more technical on the coin flip example, it does depend on the situation. Maybe you need $100 for a life-saving surgery. Any less than that and you’ll die. In that case, $50 is useless to you so Option 1 is infinitely more risky than Option 2. This is an argument in favor of being riskier in best ball-type leagues or large daily fantasy tournaments with top-heavy payouts. But not for early round draft picks in standard re-draft leagues. 

Edited by gufomel

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