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Ezekiel Elliott 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

I don’t think anyone is claiming otherwise...But even a bad year for Zeke has resulted in being rb8(or whatever).    
 

first world problems
 

Possibly but saying Id be happy drafting him knowing he would have his worst year statistically is also not true.

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7 minutes ago, yanksman said:

Possibly but saying Id be happy drafting him knowing he would have his worst year statistically is also not true.


Now you’re just arguing semantics.  
 

My take:    Zeke has been consistent and useful-  but not a week winner.   He’s healthy and their O line is still top 3-5.    I think there will be some regression to the mean with tds-  and bigger games coming.  
 

This week was rough and could be his worst game all year.  

Edited by Impreza178

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He is declining. He has had 5 straight years of extreme workload, and the cracks are starting to show. NFL RBs have an extremely small window of peak athleticism and minimal wear and tear, and he has already peaked. There's no immediate cliff looming, so he should be able to linger around for a while more, but hoping for the stats of yesteryear is a losing cause.

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Biggest problem is TD’s and lack of use in the passing game. If that was happening, he’d be top 3, volume is there. No TDs and RB’s won’t have blowup games.

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56 minutes ago, yanksman said:

TDs are wrong but everything else is right. Not sure how you did that lol.

ah, yea 11 TDs. typo...or subliminal wishful thinking.

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1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

What about Barkley, Kamara, Conner, Bell? You picked the wrong RB to s--- on lmao

 

They have all had injuries and missed at least one game each. Try again. 

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19 minutes ago, Dexter75 said:

 

They have all had injuries and missed at least one game each. Try again. 

You get points for injured players? Weird league settings.

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2 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

He is declining. He has had 5 straight years of extreme workload, and the cracks are starting to show. NFL RBs have an extremely small window of peak athleticism and minimal wear and tear, and he has already peaked. There's no immediate cliff looming, so he should be able to linger around for a while more, but hoping for the stats of yesteryear is a losing cause.

I mean....everyone is technically declining/dying but how does that apply to Zeke's performance?

I'm not sure what cracks are starting to show? It seems like you're just making things up to support your opinion. 

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

I mean....everyone is technically declining/dying but how does that apply to Zeke's performance?

I'm not sure what cracks are starting to show? It seems like you're just making things up to support your opinion. 

 

Zeke's performance is down relative to past years and he doesn't look as good as he has in the past.

Of course I am making things up to support my opinion, that's what fantasy football is. You watch, form an opinion, and project. I'm not sure what kind of analysis you expect?

I do not agree that everyone is declining. The are many players whose best is yet to come. Zeke's best, however, appears to be behind him. This is the new normal.

Edited by MJJ28
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14 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Zeke's performance is down relative to past years and he doesn't look as good as he has in the past.

Of course I am making things up to support my opinion, that's what fantasy football is. You watch, form an opinion, and project. I'm not sure what kind of analysis you expect?

I do not agree that everyone is declining. The are many players whose best is yet to come. Zeke's best, however, appears to be behind him. This is the new normal.

 

I haven't watched enough Dallas games to agree with you but I do see Zeke as one that doesn't exactly take care of his body in the offseason. Not to the extent of Eddie Lacy but every offseason, Zeke shows up looking like he ate 20 cheeseburgers too many.

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4 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

He is declining. He has had 5 straight years of extreme workload, and the cracks are starting to show. NFL RBs have an extremely small window of peak athleticism and minimal wear and tear, and he has already peaked. There's no immediate cliff looming, so he should be able to linger around for a while more, but hoping for the stats of yesteryear is a losing cause.

 

45 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Zeke's performance is down relative to past years and he doesn't look as good as he has in the past.

Of course I am making things up to support my opinion, that's what fantasy football is. You watch, form an opinion, and project. I'm not sure what kind of analysis you expect?

I do not agree that everyone is declining. The are many players whose best is yet to come. Zeke's best, however, appears to be behind him. This is the new normal.

 

This is only his 4th season... Are you including college workload lol?  In that case he has probably had 15 years of extreme workload going all the way back to peewee! 

 

The cracks are not showing, there is a few major factors to his regression this year.

1) Kellen Moore 

2) 2018:  6 targets/game  2019: 3.6 targets/game - He is averaging the same amount of yards/reception as he did last year. 7.4... That right there is 3-5 point weekly ding.

3) Amari Cooper - I think this one is less of a factor than the other two but since he showed up Zeke has averaged less fantasy points/week.

 

Kellen Moore calling plays is the biggest factor IMO.  The fact that you can write a whole game-script and it wouldn't include ONE screen pass to Elliot getting him in space is idiotic. 

He isn't regressing, Jerry wouldn't have spit out $$$ if that were the case. He is the best overall RB in the league imo, just not getting the same opportunities that others are.

 

 

 

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On 11/12/2019 at 5:27 PM, MJJ28 said:

 

Zeke's performance is down relative to past years and he doesn't look as good as he has in the past.

Of course I am making things up to support my opinion, that's what fantasy football is. You watch, form an opinion, and project. I'm not sure what kind of analysis you expect?

I do not agree that everyone is declining. The are many players whose best is yet to come. Zeke's best, however, appears to be behind him. This is the new normal.

Making things up is not analysis. Making things up is looking at Zeke's stats YTD, comparing them to previous years, then forming the opinion he's declining. There is no factual basis for that opinion in terms of actual player ability. Adrian Peterson had three straight years of declining fantasy production from 2008 to 2011. If we apply your argument to Peterson, his best was clearly behind him, his production was clearly declining, and that was the new normal. But wait, in 2012 he ran for over 2,000 yards and had his best fantasy season ever.

What you're saying is kind of like saying when Mahomes had a couple sub par games earlier this year in terms of raw stats saying "his best is behind him" and "this is the new normal."

Players have up and down season and ebbs and flows though their career. Zeke is having a slightly slower season (to this point) compared to earlier in his career but that is not indicative of his play on the field. 

Zeke looks the same this year as he has always looked. There is literally nothing to suggest "his best is behind him."

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17 minutes ago, munde53 said:

Making things up is not analysis. Making things up is looking at Zeke's stats YTD, comparing them to previous years, then forming the opinion he's declining. There is no factual basis for that opinion in terms of actual player ability. Adrian Peterson had three straight years of declining fantasy production from 2008 to 2011. If we apply your argument to Peterson, his best was clearly behind him, his production was clearly declining, and that was the new normal. But wait, in 2012 he ran for over 2,000 yards and had his best fantasy season ever.

What you're saying is kind of like saying when Mahomes had a couple sub par games earlier this year in terms of raw stats saying "his best is behind him" and "this is the new normal."

Players have up and down season and ebbs and flows though their career. Zeke is having a slightly slower season (to this point) compared to earlier in his career but that is not indicative of his play on the field. 

Zeke looks the same this year as he has always looked. There is literally nothing to suggest "his best is behind him."


The difference is that the Cowboys are becoming more of a pass first team with the new OC. Zeke has only gone over 15 fantasy points in 4 of his 10 games. That is not elite, first round production. There are guys like Ekeler, Jamal Williams and others putting up the same fantasy points with half the touches. Sure, a 120 yard game is great in real life, but it’s only 12 points in fantasy. 

Edited by Dexter75

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Guess what?   Zeke is just another player that stopped performing to his max once he got that huge payday.   Truth hurts

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

Players have up and down season and ebbs and flows though their career. Zeke is having a slightly slower season (to this point) compared to earlier in his career but that is not indicative of his play on the field. 

Zeke looks the same this year as he has always looked. There is literally nothing to suggest "his best is behind him."


Zeke doesn’t look the same to me, that was the point of my post. He doesn’t have break away speed anymore, he isn’t making guys miss, he still trucks guys, but that’s his entire game now. Get the handoff, lower shoulder and initiate contact, gain 4 yards, nothing more nothing less. That’s his game now. Good, but not special.

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1 hour ago, Dexter75 said:


The difference is that the Cowboys are becoming more of a pass first team with the new OC. Zeke has only gone over 15 fantasy points in 4 of his 10 games. That is not elite, first round production. There are guys like Ekeler, Jamal Williams and others putting up the same fantasy points with half the touches. Sure, a 120 yard game is great in real life, but it’s only 12 points in fantasy. 

I'm going to exclude week 1 of this year because Zeke was splitting time with Pollard as he was being eased back into things after his hold out. In his other 8 games this year Zeke is averaging 20.63 carries, 3.13 receptions, 114.63 total yards, and .63 TD per game. In Zeke's three previous seasons he has averaged 21.7 carries, 3.38 receptions, 131.18 total yards, and .85 TDs per game. 

In other words he's only averaging about 1.5 less touches per game as compared to his other three seasons but his efficiency in terms of fantasy production has obviously dipped this season. I attribute this partially because of the hold out and partially because Kellen Moore is incredibly overrated as a play caller. The Cowboys were very creative with getting the ball to Zeke last year and got him into space much more often. This year they seem content with just slamming him into the line of scrimmage on every run. 

Stop with your broken record "that's not elite first round production." He's putting up slightly lower numbers than his career average but he's still producing at a 1st round fantasy player rate. 

Ekeler and Jamaal Williams are not putting up the same fantasy numbers as Zeke so just stop bringing up mediocre players who are ancillary players on their respective teams.  

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The Cowboys stopped dumping it off to him in the passing game. That’s the big difference so far this year.

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1 hour ago, munde53 said:

 

Ekeler and Jamaal Williams are not putting up the same fantasy numbers as Zeke so just stop bringing up mediocre players who are ancillary players on their respective teams.  

 

You're right. Ekeler has put up more points than Zeke the last two weeks...as a backup. Ekeler is still RB4, Zeke is RB8 in PPR. Ekeler has been a backup the past 5 weeks seeing half the touches Zeke has. Thats just one example of how mediocre Zeke has been. Guys like Henry and Carson are having better years. 

Edited by Dexter75

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I have a feeling that if Zeke were sideined for injury or whatever Pollard would score the same if not more per game. They'd actually get him the ball in the passing game.

DAL made a coaching decision not to throw the ball to Zeke. He is there to run the ball between the 2 guards on every play he's involved in. That's his role. Run up the middle for 3 yards and stay inside the 2 guards.

Edited by SuperJoint
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On 11/12/2019 at 12:42 PM, BeefDaddy said:

ZEKE THE FREAK FINNA FEAST!! 

Fire up on all cylinders and let those eagle fans hate hate hate

Underwhelming performance incoming.

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I drafted this guy at #8. Besides His first and last game he’s been an rb1 for me in my PPR league. Idk what y’all are complaining about 

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8 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

Underwhelming performance incoming.

20 carries, 89 yards, 2 catches 9 yards, 0 TD's incoming.

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