Boudewijn

Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Drafted in 2018 around the #10-12 spot (depending on format), delivered around #6, on only 11 games until week 16. In fact, only Gurley and CMC had a higher ppg in .5 PPR.
Image result for melvin gordon

 

Year

Age

G

Touch

YScm

RRTD

2015

22

14

217

833

0

2016

23

13

295

1416

12

2017

24

16

342

1581

12

2018

25

12

225

1375

14

Career avg

 

13.8

270

1301

9.5

 

The good numbers are lots of yards and lots of TDs, as the Chargers become a more coherent team. The bad numbers, clearly, is that Gordon only managed a full season once; especially December is a problem for him.

- in 2018 he missed week 13-15

- in 2017 he didn't miss a single game

- in 2016 he missed week 14-17

- in 2015 he missed week 15-17.

This then, is a guy who will easily carry you to the play-offs, but in the final weeks you better have a plan B available.

 

Based on his points per game, he could be considered with the likes of Zeke, CMC, Barkley and Gurley. Due to his injury history, I think you should get him at a discount. If he is available around the #10 mark again, I think this is a very interesting decision, and one where different owners will take very different decisions.

 

Let the controversy begin: DND or STUD?

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Drafted in 2018 around the #10-12 spot (depending on format), delivered around #6, on only 11 games until week 16. In fact, only Gurley and CMC had a higher ppg in .5 PPR.
Image result for melvin gordon

 

Year

Age

G

Touch

YScm

RRTD

2015

22

14

217

833

0

2016

23

13

295

1416

12

2017

24

16

342

1581

12

2018

25

12

225

1375

14

Career avg

 

13.8

270

1301

9.5

 

The good numbers are lots of yards and lots of TDs, as the Chargers become a more coherent team. The bad numbers, clearly, is that Gordon only managed a full season once; especially December is a problem for him.

- in 2018 he missed week 13-15

- in 2017 he didn't miss a single game

- in 2016 he missed week 14-17

- in 2015 he missed week 15-17.

This then, is a guy who will easily carry you to the play-offs, but in the final weeks you better have a plan B available.

 

Based on his points per game, he could be considered with the likes of Zeke, CMC, Barkley and Gurley. Due to his injury history, I think you should get him at a discount. If he is available around the #10 mark again, I think this is a very interesting decision, and one where different owners will take very different decisions.

 

Let the controversy begin: DND or STUD?

 

 

 

Would love to draft him again. Injuries are fluky and I'm not going to assume he gets injured every year at the same time. Just coincidental. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd feel strongly compelled to take Ekeler if i had Gordon, as insurance.  I'm not usually gung-ho guy about handcuffing but I feel this is a relatively sure case of having a clear high touch, high production guy backing him up.     At the same time, Ek proved to be a viable plug in guy in a pinch this year.   If you're willing to commit to him as your RB3, starting him on occasion even with MGIII in the lineup, if you need to fill a hole, its a good combo to have.     In the deeper leagues, Justin Jackson probably sits there as your last round pick too.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

Would love to draft him again. Injuries are fluky and I'm not going to assume he gets injured every year at the same time. Just coincidental. 

Its not the timing Im worried about. Its the fact that it has been every year but one. All knees too, if Im not mistaken.

Edited by nromn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In his defense, the team sat him two of those games because of their playoff position. He wanted to play. BIG Melvin guy, if I can get him late 1st again I would 100/100 times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dylanj said:

In his defense, the team sat him two of those games because of their playoff position. He wanted to play. BIG Melvin guy, if I can get him late 1st again I would 100/100 times.

Obviously if you could get him late first you would. However, you won't be able to get him late first. He will be a top 6 pick.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Drafted in 2018 around the #10-12 spot (depending on format), delivered around #6, on only 11 games until week 16. In fact, only Gurley and CMC had a higher ppg in .5 PPR.
Image result for melvin gordon

 

Year

Age

G

Touch

YScm

RRTD

2015

22

14

217

833

0

2016

23

13

295

1416

12

2017

24

16

342

1581

12

2018

25

12

225

1375

14

Career avg

 

13.8

270

1301

9.5

 

The good numbers are lots of yards and lots of TDs, as the Chargers become a more coherent team. The bad numbers, clearly, is that Gordon only managed a full season once; especially December is a problem for him.

- in 2018 he missed week 13-15

- in 2017 he didn't miss a single game

- in 2016 he missed week 14-17

- in 2015 he missed week 15-17.

This then, is a guy who will easily carry you to the play-offs, but in the final weeks you better have a plan B available.

 

Based on his points per game, he could be considered with the likes of Zeke, CMC, Barkley and Gurley. Due to his injury history, I think you should get him at a discount. If he is available around the #10 mark again, I think this is a very interesting decision, and one where different owners will take very different decisions.

 

Let the controversy begin: DND or STUD?

 

 

 

I've been a Gordon believer since he got drafted & had him every year after his rookie season. He's been so underestimated that I've been able to get him at a discount.  Unfortunately I think this year was my last owning him for a few reasons:

1) Now that he's become recognized as a versatile talent & goal-line weapon, he's probably going to be too expensive. I spent $60 on him this year but won't go higher.  The only RB's more expensive will be Gurley, Elliott, Barkley, & McCaffrey so I'll most likely pass

2) He seemed to recover well from the microfracture surgery on his knee, but all of these leg injuries are going to take their toll at some point.  Breaking down in December 3 of 4 years is a real concern. I'd rather go away from him a year early than hang on a year too long. 

3) I think the emergence of Mike Williams & the return of Hunter Henry will eat into his receiving numbers next year

 

He's still worth a late 1st round pick with all things considered, but don't be surprised if he doesn't return top-5 numbers 

Edited by lvsaint429
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

Obviously if you could get him late first you would. However, you won't be able to get him late first. He will be a top 6 pick.

 

I'm not so sure about that.    I think he's a 8-10.   It's early but I think the expert consensus will have the big 3 ahead of him, and Kamara, McCaffrey, Hopkins, and Adams.

 

Maybe in some leagues he goes at 6 but I think that's going to be the exception.   

Edited by K197040

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, K197040 said:

 

I'm not so sure about that.    I think he's a 8-10.   It's early but I think the expert consensus will have the big 3 ahead of him, and Kamara, McCaffrey, Hopkins, and Adams.

 

Maybe in some leagues he goes at 6 but I think that's going to be the exception.   

First off, CMC is part of that big 3 4. 

 

Anyways, The 5 RBs are above him. In standard, I don't see any way he goes after 6. No way. The top 6 will be set in stone much like the top 4 was this season. That's just my take on how things will unfold. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

First off, CMC is part of that big 3 4. 

 

Anyways, The 5 RBs are above him. In standard, I don't see any way he goes after 6. No way. The top 6 will be set in stone much like the top 4 was this season. That's just my take on how things will unfold. 

 

ah...I was only considering PPR.  No idea...at least not a confident opinion...as to standard.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is anyone concerned about Ekeler cutting into his touches? Not enough to push him out of the RB1 ranks or anything drastic but enough to distance him from the top 5 RBs? 

 

Gordon finished well below his 2016 and 2017 carry numbers, as Ekeler averaged 6.5 carries in games they both played. I could see something like 200ish carries and 50-60 catches as a reasonable projection for him for next year, which seems to me to be a bit below where I'd project the top 5 backs in terms of touches. Assuming his YPC and TD rates regress a bit more towards his career averages I'd think his 2019 projections are more likely to be in the range of the likes of Le'Veon, Connor, Chubb, and Mixon than the elite top 5 RB1s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, triplethreat12 said:

Is anyone concerned about Ekeler cutting into his touches? Not enough to push him out of the RB1 ranks or anything drastic but enough to distance him from the top 5 RBs? 

 

Gordon finished well below his 2016 and 2017 carry numbers, as Ekeler averaged 6.5 carries in games they both played. I could see something like 200ish carries and 50-60 catches as a reasonable projection for him for next year, which seems to me to be a bit below where I'd project the top 5 backs in terms of touches. Assuming his YPC and TD rates regress a bit more towards his career averages I'd think his 2019 projections are more likely to be in the range of the likes of Le'Veon, Connor, Chubb, and Mixon than the elite top 5 RB1s.

No

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with the 8-10 spot for Gordon. I got him right about equal with Gurley and behind Bell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From another thread (on Fournette):

 

10 minutes ago, CooL said:

I don't understand how Melvin Gordon can be grouped into this tier of guys either, he's a top 6-7 back.

 

Because he gets dinged up a lot and his production relies heavily on TDs, which are less predictable than yds or catches. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, bomont said:

From another thread (on Fournette):

 

Because he gets dinged up a lot and his production relies heavily on TDs, which are less predictable than yds or catches. 

I'll give you the dinged up part, as he has played 14-13-16-12 games over the past four years.  But his last two years his receiving line is 58/476/4 and 50/490/4.  How does this put all of his production on TDs?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, bomont said:

From another thread (on Fournette):

 

Because he gets dinged up a lot and his production relies heavily on TDs, which are less predictable than yds or catches. 

 

This is true but in the last 3 of his 4 seasons hes had 12, 12, and 14 TDs. When ya do it that consistent it's a little easier to count on. Further more very few are from long runs or long receptions. When the chargers get inside the 15 they look to Melvin.. that said if he came up with 5tds this year I wouldnt be surprised 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Im out on Melvin this year. Feel like he is more of an injury concern than other backs around his ADP.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CooL said:

I'll give you the dinged up part, as he has played 14-13-16-12 games over the past four years.  But his last two years his receiving line is 58/476/4 and 50/490/4.  How does this put all of his production on TDs?

You conveniently only mentioned receiving TDs.

The past 3 yrs (reasonably discounting his rookie one) he has scored 12, 12, and 14 total TDs.  That's top 5 material.

His yardage total isn't even top 10 on average, more like in the teens. Even when he played his one season of 16 games, he barely cracked 1000.

 

Edited by bomont

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

This is true but in the last 3 of his 4 seasons hes had 12, 12, and 14 TDs. When ya do it that consistent it's a little easier to count on. Further more very few are from long runs or long receptions. When the chargers get inside the 15 they look to Melvin.. that said if he came up with 5tds this year I wouldnt be surprised 

Seems reasonable. If Hunter stays healthy and Mike Williams is "on the rise" as most seem to think, that could change though. I'm just not comfortable with him for anywhere near his going price. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

We're still cool, MGIII.   You're the alpha back on a strong offense, and I can get your handcuff at a price i love, and said handcuff's a capable flex in a lot of deeper leagues.  In auction, no thanks, only bc I can pay a little more for the backs just above you who I like better.   However, in snake, if i miss them, you're fine.   

 

Another interesting auction quirk I expect to happen again this year:   The clear top 4 backs will go in the first few noms, and they'll be the price we expect.   Gordon goes after them, and I bet he goes for the same price, maybe even more than the cheapest of the big 4, as someone overpays after missing out.   Gordon ended up the third highest back in my auction last year, more than Zeke. 

 

 

Edited by BrianM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, BrianM said:

We're still cool, MGIII.   You're the alpha back on a strong offense, and I can get your handcuff at a price i love, and said handcuff's a capable flex in a lot of deeper leagues.  In auction, no thanks, only bc I can pay a little more for the backs just above you who I like better.   However, in snake, if i miss them, you're fine. 

? Which one of us do you think is Gordon?  (Not me, FYI) I'm curious because I'd like to ask him if he's going to try and draft himself this year. Because if I see any "well I am worried about my ha......uhhhh DUDE I'm so totally drafting me, I'm fine" comments I will avoid him like the plague. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm just speaking to him directly on the off chance he reads this forum and I draft him, so he's not mad at me and doesn't fall at the one yard line and sub out for Ek in a week i really need him to ball out.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BrianM said:

We're still cool, MGIII.   You're the alpha back on a strong offense, and I can get your handcuff at a price i love, and said handcuff's a capable flex in a lot of deeper leagues.  In auction, no thanks, only bc I can pay a little more for the backs just above you who I like better.   However, in snake, if i miss them, you're fine.   

 

Another interesting auction quirk I expect to happen again this year:   The clear top 4 backs will go in the first few noms, and they'll be the price we expect.   Gordon goes after them, and I bet he goes for the same price, maybe even more than the cheapest of the big 4, as someone overpays after missing out.   Gordon ended up the third highest back in my auction last year, more than Zeke. 

 

 

 

Melvin has moved down to RB6. So DJ would be the person this would happen to. I hope not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Melvin has moved down to RB6. So DJ would be the person this would happen to. I hope not.

 

Or hopefully that overbidder sees Bell as the end of the tier?     It could be any of a few guys I guess, but its more likely than not that a top 10 but not top 4 back (maybe even two of them) fall prey to this.   

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Second tier RBs seem so weird to me this year. Meaning how much of a gap there is between them and that top tier, or that third tier, and why, all over the map. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.