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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

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11 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Because Gordon and his agent are imbeciles. The 10m a year offer he got was perfect , and right at his market value. The hell was he thinking asking for 13-15m annually, hes not near Gurley, Bell, Zeke level . He overplayed his hand , and LAC basically said go F yourself . 

 

To be fair, 10 million a year isn't market value.  It's a team friendly deal which is perfectly acceptable from the Chargers IMO considering that he's not on the market.   

Free Agency paid Sammy Watkins the 3rd largest contract in the NFL at his position (at the time of him signing it).   It paid Jerick McKinnon 7.5 million a year.

Unfortuntely for Running backs, the current CBA is really screwing them.  Teams can run them into the ground for their prime seasons without having to compensate them for the abuse.  

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This idiot and Bilbo Baggins are seriously probably rubbing their hands together like a fly on poo once Zeke's deal is signed thinking they too can reset the market. Smh

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3 minutes ago, kevinwayne20 said:

 

To be fair, 10 million a year isn't market value.  It's a team friendly deal which is perfectly acceptable from the Chargers IMO considering that he's not on the market.   

Free Agency paid Sammy Watkins the 3rd largest contract in the NFL at his position (at the time of him signing it).   It paid Jerick McKinnon 7.5 million a year.

Unfortuntely for Running backs, the current CBA is really screwing them.  Teams can run them into the ground for their prime seasons without having to compensate them for the abuse.  

Is Melvin Gordon a free agent like Watkins was? Watkins was at the right place at the right time similar to Kirk Cousins. 

Based on current market value, $10 million IS current market value. Please check 2019 salaries for RB's. Tell Melvin go win some rushing titles and we can talk about 13-15 million per season.

 

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Man, was I wrong on Gordon.  With the signing of Elliot apparently imminent at $15M/year, and Gordon with no end in sight, there was apparently reasonable justification for their ADP disparity.  The part I did not count on was how hard headed Gordon would be with a $10M/year (assuming its not phony and back loaded) offer, to the point the Chargers would rescind it.  Now we have Gio Bernard signing a 2 year deal in Cincy for the same annual amount that Gordon was scheduled to make ($5M+), Zeke making $15M, and Gordon between a rock and a hard place.

 

I wonder if the Bernard signing is good for the RB market?  People are looking at the Zeke/Gurley contracts as setting the ceiling, but that impacts so few backs because their generational talents.  If we're setting the Bernard caliber standard at $5M+/year which probably puts the impact on 50+ running backs, maybe that will intrigue a trading partner to give Gordon something closer to the middle between the two?  That could be wishful thinking, but this thing has gone south quickly in the last week.

 

 

 

 

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Is it possible the Gordon camp leaked a BS number for the Zeke signing just to see what happens?

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Starting to wonder if there’s any chance at this point that he returns before week 10. Definitely not looking good and there’s not even a scenario I see that would be beneficial outside of him getting traded (which seems very unlikely)...oy vey

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5 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

Starting to wonder if there’s any chance at this point that he returns before week 10. Definitely not looking good and there’s not even a scenario I see that would be beneficial outside of him getting traded (which seems very unlikely)...oy vey

 

I think I agree.  He'd be sacrificing about $3M if he shows in Week 10, but greatly reduces his chance of injury heading into Free Agency.   That may be his most beneficial play at this point, while he waits out other teams to see if they get desperate due to injury and make a run at a trade.

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1 minute ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

I think I agree.  He'd be sacrificing about $3M if he shows in Week 10, but greatly reduces his chance of injury heading into Free Agency.   That may be his most beneficial play at this point, while he waits out other teams to see if they get desperate due to injury and make a run at a trade.

He won't be heading into free agency as the Chargers can simply franchise tag him next year at $11mm, or transition tag him at $9mm and watch the zero offers for that amount roll in (and match them if they do, or let him walk).  Zero chance they simply let him walk as an FA next year. 

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10 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

Is Melvin Gordon a free agent like Watkins was? Watkins was at the right place at the right time similar to Kirk Cousins. 

Based on current market value, $10 million IS current market value. Please check 2019 salaries for RB's. Tell Melvin go win some rushing titles and we can talk about 13-15 million per season.

 

 

I'm fully aware of what NFL RBs are making.  10 million  a year puts him right inbetween an antiquated contract that is over 2 years old and another one given to a guy who's got only 1 season of quility NFL production.  Seeing that neither of those guys have rushing titles prior to their huge extensions I'm unsure why Gordon would need one.  Heck, Leveon Bell who spent last year partying in south beach doesn't even have one.  

10 million a years puts him a lot closer to a hack like Jerrick Mckinnon than it does the second tier of NFL contracts.  We'll agree to disagree.  

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How exactly does Melvin Gordon benefit from holding out and missing half or all of this season? Wouldn’t he also have to do the exact same thing again next year? Does he believe that this is just a game of chicken and that the Chargers will eventually give into his demands? Because they’ve made it awfully clear he’s not cashing in this year. No trade partners have come along.  He just looks like a joke at this point. How does he not see this??

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4 minutes ago, jumper said:

He won't be heading into free agency as the Chargers can simply franchise tag him next year at $11mm, or transition tag him at $9mm and watch the zero offers for that amount roll in (and match them if they do, or let him walk).  Zero chance they simply let him walk as an FA next year. 

 

Wouldn't say zero chance.  They'd be getting the same 3rd round compensation that Pitt got with Bell.  That might be as good or better than any trade compensation.  

I'd imagine that they could have a locker room issue if they look like their trying to screw Gordon just for the sake of screwing him over.  

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1 minute ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How exactly does Melvin Gordon benefit from holding out and missing half or all of this season? Wouldn’t he also have to do the exact same thing again next year? Does he believe that this is just a game of chicken and that the Chargers will eventually give into his demands? Because they’ve made it awfully clear he’s not cashing in this year. No trade partners have come along.  He just looks like a joke at this point. How does he not see this??

This year he is under his rookie contract. If he accrues a season, he will have enough seasons to qualify for free agency. 

At that point he can go test his worth on the open market, or the Chargers franchise tag him--which they may not be willing to do after the headache he caused this year and after Bell successfully got himself to free agency by forgoing a year on the tag.

In order to accrue a season, he can't sit out all year. He has to report by early-mid November (I don't recall the exact date). 

So he benefits by reporting just before the deadline, by avoiding wear and tear on a "cheap" rookie contract, and getting to free agency.

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1 minute ago, kevinwayne20 said:

 

Wouldn't say zero chance.  They'd be getting the same 3rd round compensation that Pitt got with Bell.  That might be as good or better than any trade compensation.  

I'd imagine that they could have a locker room issue if they look like their trying to screw Gordon just for the sake of screwing him over.  

You can't franchise tag someone thats not going to show up for work.

Probably a good chance they do cut him if he doesn't show up at all this season. And I'm not really sure hes going to get the deal he wants in FA....he is overvaluing himself.

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4 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How exactly does Melvin Gordon benefit from holding out and missing half or all of this season? Wouldn’t he also have to do the exact same thing again next year? Does he believe that this is just a game of chicken and that the Chargers will eventually give into his demands? Because they’ve made it awfully clear he’s not cashing in this year. No trade partners have come along.  He just looks like a joke at this point. How does he not see this??

 

I cannot see the Chargers tagging him for 12M plus next season.   The Zeke deal will push that franchise number up, and I doubt any team will give them a higher pick than they’ll get as a compensatory once MG3 signs elsewhere.  

 

He’ll likely walk if he fulfills his obligation to report by week 10/11- whatever the exact date is.  

So yes-  there is a winning play for Melvin here 

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2 minutes ago, TheForearmShiver said:

How exactly does Melvin Gordon benefit from holding out and missing half or all of this season? Wouldn’t he also have to do the exact same thing again next year? Does he believe that this is just a game of chicken and that the Chargers will eventually give into his demands? Because they’ve made it awfully clear he’s not cashing in this year. No trade partners have come along.  He just looks like a joke at this point. How does he not see this??

 

Saves wear and tear and limits the risk of injury.  If he views his time in LA done it doesn't make much sense to come back until he absolutely has too.  Don't see the risk outweighting the benifit.  If he does come back I could easily see LA pounding him into the ground with the idea that he isn't going to come back next year.  

 

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So I have been following Gordon's situation very casually, but it sounds like he has to come back by week 10 to get credit for the season in order to be a free agent next year.  Gordon was on my DND list this year because even though he was awesome during the season, he left me hanging in the fantasy playoffs and apparently it wasn't the first year he has done that his owners.  I have been thinking though that if I draft Chubb I can also grab Gordon in the 4/5 round to have as a replacement for Chubb in case Hunt comes back and creates a time share?  Hunt is coming back by week 10/11 and Gordon has to be back by week 10, where hopefully he will be caught up to speed/in game shape and not injured by the fantasy playoffs. Anyone have similar thoughts?  

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6 minutes ago, dmody91 said:

You can't franchise tag someone thats not going to show up for work.

Probably a good chance they do cut him if he doesn't show up at all this season. And I'm not really sure hes going to get the deal he wants in FA....he is overvaluing himself.

 

Doubt he's getting cut unless this starts creating an issue in the locker room.  

If he played for my favorite team I wouldn't want him signed to that sort of contract.  Saying that though, from his eyes it's not hard to look at David Johnson's piss poor NFL production and argue that he deserves to be paid on that same level.   

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11 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

I cannot see the Chargers tagging him for 12M plus next season.   The Zeke deal will push that franchise number up, and I doubt any team will give them a higher pick than they’ll get as a compensatory once MG3 signs elsewhere.  

 

He’ll likely walk if he fulfills his obligation to report by week 10/11- whatever the exact date is.  

So yes-  there is a winning play for Melvin here 

 

I don't know. If they are offering rumored 10-11 this year, and guarantees are the sticking point, I don't think they have a problem franchising one year at $12m to both retain his rights (not lose him without anything in return) and a one year rental to see how he handles injury. 

If they franchise him and he sits, they are paying nothing to retain his rights, correct? So there is no risk on their end. That gives them a fresh Melvin Gordon two years in a row at the end of the year for a playoff run, without having to pay him most of the regular season. Sounds like a great situation for the Chargers to be honest.

Not to mention it doesn't look great for his image if he sits out two years, and NFL players don't have their whole lives to play. I think the Chargers hold the cards here. And they may just want to be done with it but get something out of him (trade value or at least a few weeks of play cheap on his rookie contract).

Edited by tschwicht
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Just now, kevinwayne20 said:

 

Saves wear and tear and limits the risk of injury.  If he views his time in LA done it doesn't make much sense to come back until he absolutely has too.  Don't see the risk outweighting the benifit.  If he does come back I could easily see LA pounding him into the ground with the idea that he isn't going to come back next year.  

 

And that’s where some have suggested he could fake an injury.    That sounds like something the Chargers might take grievance with if they can prove it.  And Gordon will want an audition for his next contract.  

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23 minutes ago, kevinwayne20 said:

 

I'm fully aware of what NFL RBs are making.  10 million  a year puts him right inbetween an antiquated contract that is over 2 years old and another one given to a guy who's got only 1 season of quility NFL production.  Seeing that neither of those guys have rushing titles prior to their huge extensions I'm unsure why Gordon would need one.  Heck, Leveon Bell who spent last year partying in south beach doesn't even have one.  

10 million a years puts him a lot closer to a hack like Jerrick Mckinnon than it does the second tier of NFL contracts.  We'll agree to disagree.  

 

 

If Jerick McKinnon is a hack with a 4.046 career YPC then what does that make Melvin Gordon (career 4.045 YPC)?

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5 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

If they franchise him and he sits, they are paying nothing to retain his rights, correct? So there is no risk on their end. That gives them a fresh Melvin Gordon two years in a row at the end of the year for a playoff run, without having to pay him most of the regular season. Sounds like a great situation for the Chargers to be honest.

 

This year, he has to report to accrue a season. So for this year, they would potentially get him fresh for a playoff run.

Next year, if they franchised him, he doesn't need to report at all. There are no more "accrued" seasons. So if he decided to sit, he wouldn't be coming back for the playoffs. 

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2 minutes ago, bwarbiany said:

This year, he has to report to accrue a season. So for this year, they would potentially get him fresh for a playoff run.

Next year, if they franchised him, he doesn't need to report at all. There are no more "accrued" seasons. So if he decided to sit, he wouldn't be coming back for the playoffs. 

 

Ok, yeah I thought about that after I posted. Either way, if he doesn't sign, they retain his rights for free and no one else gets him that year either.

Still not an idea situation for him to sit out 2 years. He will be 28 years old coming off two seasons out of the NFL basically looking for a big contract.

Not to mention he won't be getting paid any of that time. Still think the Bolts have the upper hand here.

 

Edit to add: I don't think that means he doesn't sit this year. But I highly doubt he doesn't sign the franchise tender next year and prove himself if it comes to that and there are no suitors. Because they will franchise him for a 1 year deal at that pay rate if he's still in good shape and worth it then. They aren't just going to let him walk.

Edited by tschwicht

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6 minutes ago, tschwicht said:

 

I don't know. If they are offering rumored 10-11 this year, and guarantees are the sticking point, I don't think they have a problem franchising one year at $12m to both retain his rights (not lose him without anything in return) and a one year rental to see how he handles injury. 

If they franchise him and he sits, they are paying nothing to retain his rights, correct? So there is no risk on their end. That gives them a fresh Melvin Gordon two years in a row at the end of the year for a playoff run, without having to pay him most of the regular season. Sounds like a great situation for the Chargers to be honest.

Yeah idk either-  we’re speculating years in advance with limited info.   Good counterpoint.   It’s quite the distraction and u don’t get a pick for MG3 until this is settled.  But is Gordon really willing to give up 2 years of his prime?   

 

 

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Just now, genya said:

 

 

If Jerick McKinnon is a hack with a 4.046 career YPC then what does that make Melvin Gordon (career 4.045 YPC)?

 

Maybe my evaluation is off for a lot of backs around the league if I should be ignoring everything but a RB's career YPC number?

  

 

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