Boudewijn

Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

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6 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

Hmmm I thought at first that this could get interesting but it’s different from Bell right? Wouldn’t Melvin need to play to tick the year off his contract and be able to hit free agency? I wouldn’t think he can just sit and pass on the 5.6 mill to protect whatever he thinks he can get as FA. If that’s the case he has almost no leverage.

 

I'm fairly certain that the Chargers have the ability to NOT let him become a FA anyway even if he sits. 

 

Google Vincent Jackson and see how things turned out for him. The Chargers are pretty notorious around the league for being ruthless. 

 

This one will get interesting, but I'd bet Melvin and his agent are the ones who blink. 

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6 hours ago, FollowTheLeader said:

IF Gordon holds out the RB1 replacement on this LAC roster is Justin Jackson IMHO, not Austin Ekeler, who will continue to maintain his COP role.

 

Justin Jackson has a ton of flaws too. He's not the clear replacement IMO. 

 

If bet it goes to committee and in PPR ekeler would be the best part of that committee if he remained healthy. 

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12 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

The Chargers are pretty notorious around the league for being ruthless. 

If by that you mean a$$holes I would agree! That is why Eli Manning said screw you when they drafted him. PS I am not justifying what he did though. But back to Gordon 

 

Quote

This one will get interesting, but I'd bet Melvin and his agent are the ones who blink. 

Before Bell's sit out last year I would have agreed. Now I think Gordon's ego may get in the way. "If it's good enough for Bell..."

Wow SD player's values will take a big big hit if this happens. 

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35 minutes ago, bomont said:

Wow SD player's values will take a big big hit if this happens. 

 

If Gordon actually does hold out I think the one player who benefits is hunter Henry. Rivers already loves him and he will probably get more of the dump off passes and redzone looks than Melvin leaves open. Melvin had 4 recieving tds last season a 2 or 3 of those could turn to hunter Henry TDs. 

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as a Charger fan....don't let the door hit you on the way out

you are a mid tier RB, in a league the doesn't value RB's.  I wish the Chargers would have drafted CMac

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3 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

as a Charger fan....don't let the door hit you on the way out

you are a mid tier RB, in a league the doesn't value RB's.  I wish the Chargers would have drafted CMac

 

Wow.  SD/LA puts a **** O line in front of him for his first 3 years and he still produces solid seasons.  Last year LA finally puts a good O line in front of him and he responds by running at an awesome 5.1 ypc.  On top of that he’s a good receiver and a legit 3 down work horse RB, and you just want to kick him to the curb?

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26 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wow.  SD/LA puts a **** O line in front of him for his first 3 years and he still produces solid seasons.  Last year LA finally puts a good O line in front of him and he responds by running at an awesome 5.1 ypc.  On top of that he’s a good receiver and a legit 3 down work horse RB, and you just want to kick him to the curb?

yep, RB's are replaceable, you want to sit out be a doosh and come in and pull a hammy

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

Wow.  SD/LA puts a **** O line in front of him for his first 3 years and he still produces solid seasons.  Last year LA finally puts a good O line in front of him and he responds by running at an awesome 5.1 ypc.  On top of that he’s a good receiver and a legit 3 down work horse RB, and you just want to kick him to the curb?

Sounds to me like he's kicking himself to the curb. Wanting a new contract I get but his timing is BS.

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4 minutes ago, bomont said:

Sounds to me like he's kicking himself to the curb. Wanting a new contract I get but his timing is BS.

 

This timing creates his best chance of getting it. 

 

He did this before FA, they sign a free agent and spend higher draft capital on a RB of future. 

 

He did it after and they have no recourse but to pay or bring in an ajayi or Alfred Morris type to take part in a 3 headed committee. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm not saying I don't get the logic, I'm saying it's BS. I think he underestimates the Charger front office but we'll see.

Edited by bomont

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Chargers can basically waste money on Gordon, or save it for Bosa, I guarantee they do the latter

 

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6 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

Chargers can basically waste money on Gordon, or save it for Bosa, I guarantee they do the latter

 

I agree.  I would bet Dean Spanos still clips coupons.

 

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15 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

I agree.  I would bet Dean Spanos still clips coupons.

 

 

Probably. Bosa opposed him and he gave him an ultimatum... The deal only gets worse from here. 

 

Bosa fired his agent, accepted the deal, and reported to camp. 

 

Vincent Jackson got tagged. Played it out. Tagged again. Held out like 10 games into a season. The Chargers never paid him or traded him... They tagged his again cause he didn't fulfill requirements of full season. 

 

After that they let him walk in FA the next year. Spanos gives 0 Fs about a hold out. Melvin Gordon's agent needs to understand he will play this 5th year at $5 M and then just pray he's allowed to walk and test free agency afterwards. 

 

That all said, the Chargers have maybe 1 or 2 years before rivers retires and rebuild window comes. He may wanna go all out and try to do damage and avoid being the Clippers of 30 years with a strong showing here. 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, BrianM said:

You can't blame him. 

It's not about blame. As FF manager I don't care why a guy holds out, hits his kids or bumps a security guard into a fence. I only care what it will do to his season, what it will do to his ADP, and whether the price justifies the risk.

Right now, he was already somewhat risky due to injury concerns; add the Bell scenario, and the risk increases. Let's see how far that price drops :)

Edited by Boudewijn

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7 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

It's not about blame. As FF manager I don't care why a guy holds out, hits his kids or bumps a security guard into a fence. I only care what it will do to his season, what it will do to his ADP, and whether the price justifies the risk.

Right now, he was already somewhat risky due to injury concerns; add the Bell scenario, and the risk increases. Let's see how far that price drops :)

End of 2 you pulling trigger on MG (12tm)

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Gordon deserves a big contract whether it's from the Chargers or another team.

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10 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Chargers can basically waste money on Gordon, or save it for Bosa, I guarantee they do the latter

 

 

There's a lot of good arguments to not pay Gordon, but i'm not sure you can say they have to choose one or the other here.  Bosa has this year cheap, and next year on that 5th year option, he's not really a problem for 2 more years.  The most likely issue then is what to do with what would be a 39 year old Rivers.     If he's willing to take a 3 year deal, right now, that rips up the current contract, pays him good money in '19 and '20 but does not guarantee 2021, that's a win for LA.  

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2 hours ago, Whitecloud0101 said:

End of 2 you pulling trigger on MG (12tm)

 

I'm not touching him until around 20 RB's are gone, if i'm drafting right now.    I want him as my third RB if i'm taking him, so he's not capsizing my team if he does not come back until week 10, or worse.   

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Justin Jackson has a ton of flaws too. He's not the clear replacement IMO. 

 

Let’s try to pin-point those deficiencies which would result in either: Ekeler filling the RB1 role over Jackson, or Ekeler outscoring the RB1 (Jackson), while operating out of the COP role:

 

While playing in the Big 10, Jackson ran the ball 1142x for 5440yds and 41TDs (4.8yds/carry).

While playing in the Rocky Mountain Conference, Ekeler ran the ball 939x for 5857yds and 55TDs (6.2yds/carry).

Conclusion: due to the level of competition, I’d give an edge in the running game comparison to Jackson, but could concede a push and leave it up to individual interpretation.

 

While at Northwestern the 5’11" 200lbs, Justin Jackson caught 22, 21, 35 and 44 receptions for a total of 122 over 4 seasons.

While at Western Colorado, the 5’9” 200lbs, Austin Ekeler caught 27, 38, 32 and 18 receptions for a total of 105 over 4 seasons.

Conclusion: while Ekeler fits the image/mold of the “receiving” back, on the surface he appears to have no significant historical advantage (if any at all) in this area, over Jackson.

 

Melvin Gordon commanded 63 targets (47rec) in the LAC offense while operating as the RB1. Ekeler saw 52 targets (39rec) as the COP/receiving back, and Jackson saw 19 targets (15rec) in limited action.

Conclusion: while only a small sample size, Jackson produced a higher catch rate than either of the other two LAC RBs: 79% vs 75% and 75%, respectively.

 

When Melvin Gordon missed time last season (weeks 7 and 13-15), here is the breakdown:

 

Week 7:

AK = 12/42/0 and 5 of 7 for 26yds

JJ = 2/3 and 1 of 1 for 11yds + 1 TD

 

Week 13:

AK = 13/21/0 and 5 of 8 for 22yds

JJ = 8/63/1 and 1 of 1 for 19yds

 

Week 14:

AK = 15/66/1 and 2 of 5 for 28yds

JJ = 7/12 and 2 of 2 for 23yds

 

Week 15:

AK = 0

JJ = 16/58/1 and 3 of 4 for 27yds

 

Week 16, when Gordon returned to the line-up AND Ekeler was riding the pine, Jackson filled the COP role with 7 of 10 targets for 47yds.

 

Conclusion: As be became more acclimated with the offense, Jackson saw his targets increase in each game he filled the RB1 role (13-15) and the COP role (16), from weeks 13-16.

 

 

Week 17, with Ekeler returning and Gordon taking on his RB1 role, Jackson and Ekeler saw the same number of targets (1), with Ekeler rushing 8x and Jackson 6x, but Ekeler did out produce Jackson by virtue of a 41yd TD.

Conclusion: Ekeler wins week 17 :shrug:

 

Last season, Ekeler averaged 5yds/carry operating predominantly as the COP back, while the rookie, Jackson averaged 4.5yds/carry, on just under half the carries as Ekeler.

Conclusion: push

 

Turn Overs:

Ekeler total touches in college = 1054 with 7 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble every 151 touches.

Jackson total touches in college = 1264 with 4 fumbles for a rate of 1 fumble every 316 touches.

 

Conclusion: no visible deficiency in Jackson’s game vs Ekeler, in fact quite the opposite; Ekeler’s fumble rate is atrocious compared to Jackson.

 

 

Overall: I do not see these deficiencies you speak of, or at least not enough “flags” to anoint Ekeler as the back to own over Jackson. Since there are no discrepancies in the passing game, it really comes down to who you feel (and the LAC feel), is the better “ball carrier” in the running game. Personally, I’d bank the LAC view this in the same light as I do, so give me Jackson as the RB1 (I think he is the better ball carrier, he can produce just fine in the passing game, and the lack of fumbles is a plus), with Ekeler as the COP, which isn’t to slight thee guy, as he’ll still produce in spots.

 

*and there is also the Ekeler injury disclaimer:

17 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 in PPR ekeler would be the best part of that committee if he remained healthy

 

 

In the absence of Gordon, I do not view this backfield as a RBBC (I envision Jackson operating as Gordon and Ekeler maintaining his COP role), and IMHO the starter (RB1) in the LAC offense will outscore the "COP" back.

 

:cheers:

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader
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Posted (edited)

What should the Chargers pay for Melvin Gordon?  He's 26, has only played 16 games in one season and has averaged less than 4 YPC in three of his four seasons.  He's missed 20% of the regular season games he should have started since being drafted 15th overall back in 2015.  There are still occasionally questions about his pass protection which have been an issue since he's come into the league. 


https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GordMe00.htm

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/running-back/veteran/


Yes, he was good last year in some of the 12 games he played.  All of his good games look like they were against bottom 10 run defenses (ranked by YPC).

 

What will another team pay for Melvin Gordon?  I don't think Melvin Gordon is getting Gurley, DJ or Le'veon Bell kind of money.  He's never put together a full season compared to the peak seasons those RB's attained.

 

Speaking of Bell, his holdout last year was likely a net loss for him in terms of career earnings, so why wouldn't the Chargers call Melvin Gordon's bluff after how things went for Bell?

 

Finally, why not just throw a conditional 6th rounder to the Raiders for Chris Warren III and tell Gordon if he wants to come back he'll have to earn snaps or maybe play special teams?

 

I wouldn't pay him.  

Edited by Iron-cock
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27 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

Speaking of Bell, his holdout last year was likely a net loss for him in terms of career earnings, so why wouldn't the Chargers call Melvin Gordon's bluff after how things went for Bell?

Because he's not bluffing and they know Rivers likely doesn't have too many years left and with Gordon they are a SB contender. Basically they need him more than he needs them.

I'm not saying that's right or wrong, but that would be I think a logical reason why they would pay him. I don't think they will though. 

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They're gonna make him some kind of firm offer.   If he thinks he'll get even $3 million more in guarantees as an unrestricted free agent, financially he should sit out until week 10.     I doubt they'd dare franchise him if he's holding out now.    As far as him vs Bell, if Gordon plays half a year, finishes healthy, he's fine there.  He'll get the same market as if he played all 16 games.   The thing that will damage him most (other than the unavoidable topics like RB opportunity cost, etc) is if he finishes the year hurt or misses games.   He's taking a small pay cut there to hopefully limit that, and assuming he survives unscathed, he'll be fine.

 

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@FollowTheLeader

 

We'll see I guess. Watch for vet RB FA visits in the weeks to come. 

 

If a signing happens don't be shocked. 

 

I've talked about this in 3 different threads now which was dumb of me. But I've already laid out all my thoughts here, AE thread and JJ thread. 

 

So I guess... We'll see. 

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