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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

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1 minute ago, GoalineD said:


Leveon didnt put anything on film at all lolol

Gordon is not Le’Veon.  Sitting out 10 games, then coming back only to be “injured” immediately is a bad look. 

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Guy who took Lev Bell last year took Melvin Gordon this year.

I wanted to say "Didn't learn your lesson huh?" but I declined.

I want nothing to do with this guy.  

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8 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I know what you are trying to say but you left off his receptions and the 3TDs he scored in those games.  Also, if you have owned Gordon in the past you know he's never been a big YPC guy.  Don't cherry pick.

 

In fantasy he scores TDs and is a back that can catch passes. He isn't a top 5RB and wasn't drafted as one. But he scores you fantasy points when he plays as he can accrue points, rushing, receiving and scoring TDs.  He can get you ~1000 yards rushing, 50 catches for 450-500yards and a total of about 15 TDs.  Solid numbers for fantasy purposes.

 

Unless you're selling him as a 3rd down back, that is not cherrypicking. And he's not asking for 3rd down back money. He's asking for bellcow top 3 money.

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2 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

I know what you are trying to say but you left off his receptions and the 3TDs he scored in those games.  Also, if you have owned Gordon in the past you know he's never been a big YPC guy.  Don't cherry pick.

 

In fantasy he scores TDs and is a back that can catch passes. He isn't a top 5RB and wasn't drafted as one. But he scores you fantasy points when he plays as he can accrue points, rushing, receiving and scoring TDs.  He can get you ~1000 yards rushing, 50 catches for 450-500yards and a total of about 15 TDs.  Solid numbers for fantasy purposes.

I have Melvin in Dynasty and I left off the receptions because frankly they weren't substantial. But here you go:

week 16: 3 for 13

week 17: 3 for 24

Playoffs week 1: 1 for 3

Playoffs week 2: 1 for 1

 

I know his YPC wasn't great in the past but when you compare his last few weeks to the beginning of the year, you can clearly see the leg injury was bothering him. I'm not relying on a few goal line TD's to change my mind on how he finished the year.

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51 minutes ago, m_cox22 said:

At this point, I think the smartest thing for him and the Chargers to do is have him come back late in the season. He'll be fresh and can show out well for his next team while potentially helping the Chargers advance to the playoffs.

 

 

The smartest thing for the Chargers would be if he comes back now and plays his rookie contract out. They run him ragged and if he holds up, give him a contract or franchise and trade him next year.

He's a very good running back on a relatively cheap rookie contract. Every snap they get out of him to better their chances of winning now at that cost is what is best for them.

Also, other teams don't need to see his ability. They need to see his durability. This is not helping him find suitors if he wants a top deal.

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8 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Gordon is not Le’Veon.  Sitting out 10 games, then coming back only to be “injured” immediately is a bad look. 

We'll see how good Le'Veon is without the Steelers. Maybe Le'Veon is not Gordon :) 

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3 minutes ago, m_cox22 said:

We'll see how good Le'Veon is without the Steelers. Maybe Le'Veon is not Gordon :) 

Ooohhhh........

 

touche sir 

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9 minutes ago, GoalineD said:


Leveon didnt put anything on film at all lolol

He also didn't amass over 1900 all-purpose yards in back to back seasons either. By the numbers, Pittsburgh rode Bell hard for most of his years there. The only knock on Bell was his off-the-field problems. He had his injury in 2015 and showed he was healthy in subsequent seasons. Had it not been for his suspension the numbers in 2016 projected to be pretty insane. The knock on Gordon is his health, not his production. He is what he is and that's not Bell. So, he has proven he can't stay healthy and is not a producer like Bell. There is no comparison. Also, Bell told Pittsburgh, "Tag me again and I will sit". Gordon has not been franchised. He just doesn't want to honor his contract. I'm fine with that, but he has absolutely no leverage. Bell didn't need to return to get the year counted for his free agency. He just called bluff that the Steelers wouldn't tag him again, which they didn't. Gordon and Bell are two different types of player and two different cases.

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If I were the Chargers, I would come back in week 2 or 3 and make some tiny concession (like up the guaranteed money a bit, or even better, up the non-guaranteed money so the media and Schefter can tweet "Gordon signs $XXMM contract" but it's money he won't see/is tied up in incentives, yadda-yadda). Make him feel like he won. Because I think Gordon would jump at that chance. Right now he's negotiated himself between a rock and a hard place. He can't give in now but it's increasingly likely this doesn't end well for him. Barring a trade he's not likely to get what he wants until his next deal. I think he thought they would cave by week 1 like the Cowboys, and they called his bluff.

I wonder if knowing what he knows now (or by week 2/3), Gordon would sign that $10M/yr contract he was offered. I think he would, but he can't now even if he wanted to. That's why I think he would jump at even a nominal concession to the contract, and it would be best for both sides. He can feel like he won something by holding out and the Chargers don't actually give up materially more than they were willing to give anyway.

Unfortunately, I don't know how likely this is, as it would require the Chargers to go back on their statement that they won't negotiate a deal anymore until after the season.

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6 minutes ago, '71 Bucks said:

If...

Unfortunately, I don't know how likely this is, as it would require the Chargers to go back on their statement that they won't negotiate a deal anymore until after the season.

I don't think that is the precedence the team would like to set. Could open a Pandora's box for future holdouts from their other players looking for payday increases.

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If the Chargers offered $10m per he should take the money and call it a day.

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To me this is just bad business by the Chargers.

I mean, if you don't intend to pay a guy what he's asking for....And you have no intention of signing this guy after this year....Then I'd be trading him for whatever I could get if it's clear he's not interested in your best offer of 10 mil per year.

You get to move on, end the drama, and add an extra good young player to the team next year for cheap or use the extra draft pick as trade ammunition.

If Gordon comes back after 10 games, the Chargers get nothing except 6 games from a disgruntled player that isn't likely to give them full effort anyways.  And who even knows if the Chargers are in the playoff picture at that point.

Again...I always use the Patriots as an example but as much as I hate them, they basically are models of how to effectively run a team.  You never hear about these things with them.  They put their offers on the table, if they aren't accepted they end up cut or traded.  It's simple.  They just find a way to get value from every situation.  And sometimes there is value too by ending situations and not having them eat at the team.  Like last year with the Steelers....There is no way that Bell ordeal didn't have an impact on the locker room and morale.

IMO the Chargers should be trying to get whatever value they can here.  If I could get a 2nd or third round pick to move on, I'd be doing it.

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If he comes back in week 10 and plays his required games, then becomes a FA and signs wherever next year for a decent sized contract, the Chargers will get a compensatory pick (likely a 3rd).  I'd imagine that has a large affect on their asking price in any trade this year.  Why settle for a mid-round pick now when they can get 6+ games from him and still walk away with a 3rd round pick?

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9 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

To me this is just bad business by the Chargers.

I mean, if you don't intend to pay a guy what he's asking for....And you have no intention of signing this guy after this year....Then I'd be trading him for whatever I could get if it's clear he's not interested in your best offer of 10 mil per year.

You get to move on, end the drama, and add an extra good young player to the team next year for cheap or use the extra draft pick as trade ammunition.

If Gordon comes back after 10 games, the Chargers get nothing except 6 games from a disgruntled player that isn't likely to give them full effort anyways.  And who even knows if the Chargers are in the playoff picture at that point.

Again...I always use the Patriots as an example but as much as I hate them, they basically are models of how to effectively run a team.  You never hear about these things with them.  They put their offers on the table, if they aren't accepted they end up cut or traded.  It's simple.  They just find a way to get value from every situation.  And sometimes there is value too by ending situations and not having them eat at the team.  Like last year with the Steelers....There is no way that Bell ordeal didn't have an impact on the locker room and morale.

IMO the Chargers should be trying to get whatever value they can here.  If I could get a 2nd or third round pick to move on, I'd be doing it.

 

You are saying this as a shareholder of Melvin Gordon in fantasy football. I bet you would have a different opinion if you were the GM or Owner of the team that spent a 1st round pick and traded up to get it along with several other picks. Chargers will do what's best for their organization and its not trading Melvin Gordon for a 3rd rounder. Gordon signed a contract so he should be living up to it. 

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9 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

IMO the Chargers should be trying to get whatever value they can here.  If I could get a 2nd or third round pick to move on, I'd be doing it.

 

The Eagles offered the Chargers a swap of mid round picks for him.  Why would any team give them a 2nd to pay Melvin Gordon more than he's worth?

 

Quote

To me this is just bad business by the Chargers.

 

It's good business, because every agent knows this kind of hardball doesn't work with the Chargers.  Never has, never will.  Every 5-10 years some agent forgets what they're dealing with and something like this happens.

 

I wish my team had the Chargers front office when it comes to this stuff.

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30 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

The Eagles offered the Chargers a swap of mid round picks for him.  Why would any team give them a 2nd to pay Melvin Gordon more than he's worth?

 

 

It's good business, because every agent knows this kind of hardball doesn't work with the Chargers.  Never has, never will.  Every 5-10 years some agent forgets what they're dealing with and something like this happens.

 

I wish my team had the Chargers front office when it comes to this stuff.

Its good business, but is really good in terms of winning championships to be in a stalemate with a player?

The Patriots are very pragmatic and cut-throat on a business level. Yet they don't hang onto loose ends like this, often. Do they? They usually are happy to part ways when it comes to players wanting to get paid more. Either by little interest in re-signing or trading them away.

Maybe i'm missing some famous cases..but usually when it comes to this type of stuff. They are no longer wearing a Patriots Uni rather quickly. They don't bring them back into the locker room and give these things enough time to create a year long drama.

Edited by Slatykamora
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1 hour ago, m_cox22 said:

I have Melvin in Dynasty and I left off the receptions because frankly they weren't substantial. But here you go:

week 16: 3 for 13

week 17: 3 for 24

Playoffs week 1: 1 for 3

Playoffs week 2: 1 for 1

 

I know his YPC wasn't great in the past but when you compare his last few weeks to the beginning of the year, you can clearly see the leg injury was bothering him. I'm not relying on a few goal line TD's to change my mind on how he finished the year.

I understand your angle and you are cherry picking. It's fine if that is what you want to do. We play fantasy for points and MGIII puts points on fantasy board playing for the chargers and he scores TDs for them.  Moreover, if these are his worst games of the year, playing on a sore ankle then maybe that isn't a true painting of his fantasy value.

 

I never said he was an elite back and I have argued that he can be an injury problem at times. Having said that he's drafted as a top 8-10 RB for a reason and that is he puts fantasy points on the board.  The Chargers see value in him as well, and that is $10M per. ps - TDs count for 6 fantasy points.... most people play in PPR and each catch gives a point. 3 catches in a game is 3 more points.

Edited by Big Nate

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50 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

To me this is just bad business by the Chargers

Seems like bad business by the player. I mean he turned down 10 million per year! Clearly he is over valuing his self worth

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11 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Seems like bad business by the player. I mean he turned down 10 million per year! Clearly he is over valuing his self worth

From what we can tell I think we all (mostly) agree that the 10M per is a pretty fair offer.  Gordon believes he is worth more, unfortunately I don't think the Chargers will budge much off the 10M offer. The bad Chargers business is exactly what people are saying.. they "only" offer Gordon $10M per but in trade talks value him as an elite top 3 RB in the league. That is the part I don't get with the Chargers. From my perspective this move will only piss off Gordon as no team has offered up anything close to a first.  Are the Chargers intentionally trying to piss him off? Almost looks that way with their trade requests.

 

Having said that I still think the 10M per is a fair offer. Maybe, just maybe something gets settled around 11-12M if both sides will agree to move some.  But if Gordon thinks he's getting Zeke type money he will sit and lose a lot of money.

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15 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Seems like bad business by the player. I mean he turned down 10 million per year! Clearly he is over valuing his self worth

More like he forgot that since he's under contract, the Chargers are the only buyer that is able to make an offer.  Prices don't reflect actual supply/demand factors in a monopsony market (the opposite of a monopoly, where there's only one buyer for an item).  Kinda like fantasy football, you need to understand the rules you're operating under to appropriately determine the "proper" value to a player.  

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So mad I drafted this fool and have to constantly come to this thread for some small bit of good news to give me hope.

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26 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Its good business, but is really good in terms of winning championships to be in a stalemate with a player?

The Patriots are very pragmatic and cut-throat on a business level. Yet they don't hang onto loose ends like this, often. Do they? They usually are happy to part ways when it comes to players wanting to get paid more. Either by little interest in re-signing or trading them away.

Maybe i'm missing some famous cases..but usually when it comes to this type of stuff. They are no longer wearing a Patriots Uni rather quickly. They don't bring them back into the locker room and give these things enough time to create a year long drama.

 

There is no "year long drama".  He'll either come back and play or he won't. 

 

You can compare the Chargers to the gold standard in the league (The Patriots), but the reality is there are 30 other teams besides those two and few are as successful year in and year out.   

 

Is it good business in terms of "winning a championship"?  In general yes.  Not overpaying players is an important part of building a roster that can be successful.  The Chargers have only had 6 losing seasons since the year 2000.  That's a pretty good record when it comes to "sustained success". 

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the problem is LAC management/ownership is completely inept and has been for over a decade. they are going to take every shortcut they think they can get away with. 

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Quick recap of what could happen:

 

Best case: He sits out first week then comes back because he doesn't want to say no to 5 mil

 

Good: He gets traded to a contender after they lose an RB in the first few weeks

 

Decent: The Chargers lose a lot of their first few games due to garbage RB play and give him a better deal

 

Worst: He sits out until week 10 then maybe half-asses the rest of the season

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18 minutes ago, Panthor said:

the problem is LAC management/ownership is completely inept and has been for over a decade. they are going to take every shortcut they think they can get away with. 

 

Agreed. As a Chargers fan and MG owner I am resigned to the fact that he isn’t playing until week 10 and when he comes back not to be fully engaged. 

 

Hopefully Mack and Duke can fill the gap. 

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