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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

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6 minutes ago, sSektor said:

Quick recap of what could happen:

 

Best case: He sits out first week then comes back because he doesn't want to say no to 5 mil

 

Good: He gets traded to a contender after they lose an RB in the first few weeks

 

Decent: The Chargers lose a lot of their first few games due to garbage RB play and give him a better deal

 

Worst: He sits out until week 10 then maybe half-asses the rest of the season

 

Quick recap of what I think is likely out of your scenarios:

Best case: I think it's a tie between best case and worst case of what probably happens. It might be the first 2-3 weeks though. At this point I don't see any scenario in which anyone outside of Melvin Gordon deciding to come back on his current contract comes into play. The question is will it be now to get paid for the season or will he wait the 10 weeks. If this gets to week 4 he's sitting all 10 on principle.

Good: Not going to happen. The market isn't there for it. The trade comp necessary and the need for a long term big money deal just isn't going to happen for him this year. If he came back and balls out this year and stays healthy, they will franchise him, and there will be trade suitors for sure. Just not happening at this point in the season under these circumstances.

Decent: I doubt the Chargers aren't budging on this in any significant way. I don't see them giving him a better deal than they already offered. They offered what they did for good reason and the risk his history brings. They may say "we will re-open negotiations", and GM speak saying negotiations are done is all talk under current circumstances, but that likely means they say "we will offer the contract we had on the table before". Maybe a minor concession to give him something to say he got what he wanted in the deal and make him happy, and to still save face across the league as everyone will know it was a minor concession to just get the deal done that doesn't have any real effect. Injuries to RBs this current year aren't going to be enough to take a risk heavy deal and mortgage the future to win today. I think it's more likely they'd go back to Philadelphia and see what it would take to get Jordan Howard or someone else on another team outright or maybe even a veteran on a friendly deal.

Worst: Again, he's most likely coming back on his own accord, whether it's week 10 on principle and thinking he can stay healthy, or in the next 3 weeks to get paid.

 

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At this point it should be clear to Melvin Gordon this wasn't the year to hold out.   

He should come back and play this year without losing a game check.

 

The Chargers might be willing to do something after this season to prevent a hold out next year.

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The Chargers clearly aren't particularly worried about when or if Gordon reports. So it's really up to the player at this point. 

May seem like an obvious statement, but given the public position the team isn't coming crawling back with new offers, etc. 

Edited by LongBalls

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3 hours ago, dicka24 said:

If the Chargers offered $10m per he should take the money and call it a day.

 

No way. Probably the most talented RB in the league.  The only reason why his stats are lower is because of the system out of shotgun and poor oline.  Get him in a system with space and watch out. Records would be broken

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Just now, marlin said:

 

No way. Probably the most talented RB in the league.  The only reason why his stats are lower is because of the system out of shotgun and poor oline.  Get him in a system with space and watch out. Records would be broken

I just spit some of my drink out.

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13 minutes ago, marlin said:

 

No way. Probably the most talented RB in the league.  The only reason why his stats are lower is because of the system out of shotgun and poor oline.  Get him in a system with space and watch out. Records would be broken

Melvin - does your agent really want you posting while you are in negotiations?

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5 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

This guy is seriously getting some bad advice. 

 

Only bad advice would be going back to the chargers.  If anything, should get traded to a system that’s better for him and ball out and get that contract.  If anything, RBs always get hurt, and perhaps a team will need him in the coming weeks.   Worst thing he could do is go back to the chargers at any price less than the $13 mil.   It was always a bad fit for him.  Come home to Green Bay!

 

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Just now, marlin said:

 

Only bad advice would be going back to the chargers.  If anything, should get traded to a system that’s better for him and ball out and get that contract.  If anything, RBs always get hurt, and perhaps a team will need him in the coming weeks.   Worst thing he could do is go back to the chargers at any price less than the $13 mil.   It was always a bad fit for him.  Come home to Green Bay!

 

He should have accepted the 4 year $40 million offer. That was a fair offer. 

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5 minutes ago, Padilla814 said:

Hoping he gets this all settled soon 🤞🤞🤞

Hoping Melvin realizes he signed a contract to play for the Chargers at this salary.  Once he fulfills that obligation, I hope he gets a ton of $$$, but until then, play for what you said you would play for.

Zeke and Lev Bel were different situations - fulfill your obligation, then negotiate, not vice verse.

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3 minutes ago, MonsterMan said:

Hoping Melvin realizes he signed a contract to play for the Chargers at this salary.  Once he fulfills that obligation, I hope he gets a ton of $$$, but until then, play for what you said you would play for.

Zeke and Lev Bel were different situations - fulfill your obligation, then negotiate, not vice verse.

I agree. I am not suggesting he tries to hold out.

The NFL is better when all of the stars play. Hoping he returns to San Diego.

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Just now, Padilla814 said:

I agree. I am not suggesting he tries to hold out.

The NFL is better when all of the stars play. Hoping he returns to San Diego.


Why would he return to San Diego? There's no Football team down there.

To coach college?

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2 hours ago, Panthor said:

the problem is LAC management/ownership is completely inept and has been for over a decade. they are going to take every shortcut they think they can get away with. 

As a Dolphins fan this makes me cry if LAC is considered completely inept :( 😢 

The Chargers have been a consistently good team, with a good QB and an offense that can score points. Their D was pretty good last year too iirc. 

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41 minutes ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

At this point it should be clear to Melvin Gordon this wasn't the year to hold out.   

He should come back and play this year without losing a game check.

 

The Chargers might be willing to do something after this season to prevent a hold out next year.

 

He isn't under contract for next season unless he fails to satisfy the requirements for an accrued season this year...

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5 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


Why would he return to San Diego? There's no Football team down there.

To coach college?

Holy crap.. I can’t believe I did that. Yes to coach college 😂😂

Sorry LA Chargers

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38 minutes ago, marlin said:

 

No way. Probably the most talented RB in the league.  The only reason why his stats are lower is because of the system out of shotgun and poor oline.  Get him in a system with space and watch out. Records would be broken

Ouch, maybe that was a bit of a leap.  If you would reword it like I will (below) maybe people could get behind what you are really trying to say.  Let's first omit the part about being the "most talented RB in the league" - as good as MG might be this might not be a battle you will win. BUT....

 

If you say that MG has been a very good RB for the Chargers considering what they ask of him (to play out of shotgun most of the time), he has put up some pretty good fantasy stats along the way including scoring a lot of TDs.  Then you could say, if he was put on a team that had a great offensive system (for RBs) that doesn't run so much shotgun he could have better rushing stats and could potentially push for the rushing title you might get more bites. You could also flip it and say that you could put Zeke on the Chargers and if they ran the exact same system he likely wouldn't put up the same rushing #s. 

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From a purely fantasy perspective, still intrigued by the prospect of targeting this guy around the 4th and 5th round, especially if the high-upside players you usually target are not on the draft board anymore. A lot of players around that 4th, 5th range (like Golloday,Boyd, Coleman, james white, Godwin, etc) are intriguing, but there's definitely some question marks there a well... coming by elite workhorse backs with a proven track record is just to hard to pass by. If I'm already set at receiver and still need to address RB depth at that point, wont hesitate to take a pass on some of the aforementioned players, select Gordon, and shoot for equally high-upside players like Guice (might be tough now), Dede Westbrook, or even Latavius Murray a few rounds later. Justin Jackson is also a great pick up down the stretch too; no way Ekeler can manage a large workload -college is one thing, the NFL is another. He is definitively more efficient in a limited, specialized role. 

 

Totally willing to trust the drafting process in the later rounds to remain competitive early on just in case Gordon sits out till Week 10, and I'm okay with that. The loss of a fourth or fifth round pick is manageable if you balance things out correctly.

 

Moreover, Gordon fizzles out due to attrition down the stretch anyway and I'd much rather have him fresh and ready to go during the playoff weeks. 

Edited by J Boogie

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He's not coming. 

 

And unless the asking price gets greatly lessened by LA, he isn't getting traded either. 

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38 minutes ago, J Boogie said:

From a purely fantasy perspective, still intrigued by the prospect of targeting this guy around the 4th and 5th round, especially if the high-upside players you usually target are not on the draft board anymore. A lot of players around that 4th, 5th range (like Golloday,Boyd, Coleman, james white, Godwin, etc) are intriguing, but there's definitely some question marks there a well... coming by elite workhorse backs with a proven track record is just to hard to pass by. If I'm already set at receiver and still need to address RB depth at that point, wont hesitate to take a pass on some of the aforementioned players, select Gordon, and shoot for equally high-upside players like Guice (might be tough now), Dede Westbrook, or even Latavius Murray a few rounds later. Justin Jackson is also a great pick up down the stretch too; no way Ekeler can manage a large workload -college is one thing, the NFL is another. He is definitively more efficient in a limited, specialized role. 

 

Totally willing to trust the drafting process in the later rounds to remain competitive early on just in case Gordon sits out till Week 10, and I'm okay with that. The loss of a fourth or fifth round pick is manageable if you balance things out correctly.

 

Moreover, Gordon fizzles out due to attrition down the stretch anyway and I'd much rather have him fresh and ready to go during the playoff weeks. 

 

You are under the assumption that Gordon gets fed if he sits out a substantial amount of time when that is anything but guaranteed.

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2 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

You are under the assumption that Gordon gets fed if he sits out a substantial amount of time when that is anything but guaranteed.

 

Well that plays out perfectly for him then. Less wear and tear and diminished chances of an injury. I’m pretty sure the Chargers would maximize full use out of him if they’re serious about winning football games. Clearly superior to the other backs on the roster.

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15 minutes ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

Imo I think if someone offers a 2nd they'd trade him

Everyones so focused on what the chargers want in return but....I don't think anyone wants to pay him 13M/Year tbh. 

 

Problem is that he's overrating his worth.

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1 hour ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

At this point it should be clear to Melvin Gordon this wasn't the year to hold out.   

He should come back and play this year without losing a game check.

 

The Chargers might be willing to do something after this season to prevent a hold out next year.

 

this is the problem, Gordon is in a lose/lose and the Chargers are in a win/win.  if Gordon comes back and balls out, he will most certainly get the franchise tag and we're right back where we started. if Gordon mails it in for the back half of the season they will let him walk.  and Gordon is either going into FA with diminished value from a poor year or he is stuck in franchise purgatory hold out again.  meanwhile the Chargers either get a great year from Gordon and the option for next year or they let him walk because he was bad and they don't need to pay him. 

 

 

1 hour ago, gbill2004 said:

He should have accepted the 4 year $40 million offer. That was a fair offer. 

 

without knowing the details of the offer, like guaranteed money, pay schedules, offsets, etc. it is hard to say how fair of an offer it was.  it is actually surprising to me that players keep wanting these long term deals with make believe money they will never see.  screw the theoretical annual salary for the contract, all they should care about is the guaranteed money.  take less years and less overall dollars if it means more guaranteed money.  and get a chance at another contract in a few years.  with salary not guaranteed they are more or less playing on shorter contracts than what they signed anyways because as soon as that guaranteed money they are basically on a  month to month with the team. 

 

58 minutes ago, Big Nate said:

As a Dolphins fan this makes me cry if LAC is considered completely inept :( 😢 

The Chargers have been a consistently good team, with a good QB and an offense that can score points. Their D was pretty good last year too iirc. 

 

you don't see it from the east coast Chargers have been far from consistently good.  and even in years when they were good it was in spite of the management.  which is why they haven't ever won anything.  this ownership is interested in maximizing dollars, not  winning championships.  sure they'll take one if it falls in their lap but it has been apparent to those in San Diego there is no action behind all the lip service they put out there about winning.  do you want to know how many times there was the threat of blacked out games down here till the NFL or someone came in the 11th hour to bail t hem out so the game could be televised?  there were seasons where that was a weekly occurrence.  

 

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5 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

You are under the assumption that Gordon gets fed if he sits out a substantial amount of time when that is anything but guaranteed.

 

he is getting used the minute he sets foot back on that field,

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