jfazz23

Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook

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57 minutes ago, dkrocka said:

Let's just ignore the fact that over a full 2 years he basically put up a home run or stolen base every other game. He put up a career high in popups, not uncommon with a high launch angle and lack of strikeouts. I laugh at your joram hitting 250 claim. Guy had 82 k's to 78 HR/SB. Those boppers your talking about that hit 40 home runs strike out twice as much.

 

this.  if anything i think he can keep the power numbers and INCREASE his BA.  he doesnt strike out a ton and his BABIP was way to low for a guy like him (250 babip compared to 319/333 the 2 years prior)

 

i think its safe to assume he steals 20-25 and can hit 30 plus homers with a 290 avg with potential for upside.  imagine if he didnt go into a monster slump the last 6 weeks?  someone said he was pressing for 40/40...i hope he learned from his mistake.

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Is he even going to be pitched to? This lineup is borderline dreadful right now with Lindor out of it. Shame they can't sign Harper, it work be absolutely perfect for them.

 

Also, I wonder if he will "press" when the seasons begins, because he's gonna have to carry this offense

Edited by Ecofolux

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Found this in the comment section on Razzball, the poster made some interesting points...

 

"Not to sound heightest, but he is short. He has low bat speed. He has low EV. He has bad HR distance. Last year was a perfect storm. When you add to it that he is short and stocky, you seem to get an Altuve vibe without the batting average. Short guys who carry excess weight put a lot of pressure on their knees, and he is slow to begin with. Don’t believe me? Ask statcast. He is surrounded by catchers. Literally. His sprint speed tier has 4 catchers: John Ryan Murphy, Austin Barnes, and Romine and Contreras. Some of the names ahead of him, Bote, Gallo, Brad Miller, Conforto. Danny Jansen is nearly 100 spots ahead of him! I feel like I am preaching to the choir, but if you watch him run he is not fast. He is quick, fast twitch. I owned him nearly everywhere in 17, and a lot of places in 2018, but when you see a guy who isn’t actually fast, and doesn’t really have a lot of power getting drafted 3rd overall you run for the hills. Guys like Judge can miss a ball and hit a home run. JRam literally has to get all of it. I don’t buy his power, I don’t buy the uptake in stolen bases/ success rate."

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I mean, to each his own. If you want to take someone else in the top 5, I have no issues. Rich people problems.

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2 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Found this in the comment section on Razzball, the poster made some interesting points...

 

"Not to sound heightest, but he is short. He has low bat speed. He has low EV. He has bad HR distance. Last year was a perfect storm. When you add to it that he is short and stocky, you seem to get an Altuve vibe without the batting average. Short guys who carry excess weight put a lot of pressure on their knees, and he is slow to begin with. Don’t believe me? Ask statcast. He is surrounded by catchers. Literally. His sprint speed tier has 4 catchers: John Ryan Murphy, Austin Barnes, and Romine and Contreras. Some of the names ahead of him, Bote, Gallo, Brad Miller, Conforto. Danny Jansen is nearly 100 spots ahead of him! I feel like I am preaching to the choir, but if you watch him run he is not fast. He is quick, fast twitch. I owned him nearly everywhere in 17, and a lot of places in 2018, but when you see a guy who isn’t actually fast, and doesn’t really have a lot of power getting drafted 3rd overall you run for the hills. Guys like Judge can miss a ball and hit a home run. JRam literally has to get all of it. I don’t buy his power, I don’t buy the uptake in stolen bases/ success rate."

 

unless they move the fences back i dont care if he hits it 4 feet over or 40 feet over

 

also, he doesnt strike out and puts balls in play, so id expect his exit Velo to be a little lower than guys who K a lot more since he is fighting off tough 2 strike pitches rather than K'ing on them.

Edited by jfazz23
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On 2/11/2019 at 12:01 PM, Ecofolux said:

Found this in the comment section on Razzball, the poster made some interesting points...

 

"Not to sound heightest, but he is short. He has low bat speed. He has low EV. He has bad HR distance. Last year was a perfect storm. When you add to it that he is short and stocky, you seem to get an Altuve vibe without the batting average. Short guys who carry excess weight put a lot of pressure on their knees, and he is slow to begin with. Don’t believe me? Ask statcast. He is surrounded by catchers. Literally. His sprint speed tier has 4 catchers: John Ryan Murphy, Austin Barnes, and Romine and Contreras. Some of the names ahead of him, Bote, Gallo, Brad Miller, Conforto. Danny Jansen is nearly 100 spots ahead of him! I feel like I am preaching to the choir, but if you watch him run he is not fast. He is quick, fast twitch. I owned him nearly everywhere in 17, and a lot of places in 2018, but when you see a guy who isn’t actually fast, and doesn’t really have a lot of power getting drafted 3rd overall you run for the hills. Guys like Judge can miss a ball and hit a home run. JRam literally has to get all of it. I don’t buy his power, I don’t buy the uptake in stolen bases/ success rate."

Multiple issues with that...

Yes, he's short and stocky, but he's still very fast and is a smart baserunner.  The speed has been there for years, as he's been an extra base machine before even before the uptick in HRs.  Sure, the success rate was a career high, but I'm not sure why it would scream fluke, especially with how hard he works and his still young age.

Second, he does have the batting average.  I don't think even Jose Ramirez can completely explain what happened in the 2nd half of last season.  He's not a .270 hitter.  He's a .300+ hitter like he was in previous seasons.

Like somebody else said, it doesn't matter how far his HR's go.  As long as they get over the wall, they count.  Still, I wouldn't be surprised if his total dropped a bit this season, but I don't think it was a total fluke either.  A ton of XBHs still produce plenty of Runs and RBIs.

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On 1/29/2019 at 10:30 AM, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

Regression candidate 

Anyone who ever finishes as a top 10 player in a year for fantasy baseball is always a candidate for regression the following year. Generally speaking if you finish top 10, it means you're a good player AND things went your way.

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With Lindor injured, is Jose Ramirez the consensus #3 hitter?  I think you cant really make an argument for anyone but a pitcher instead of him.  Lack of 2b in standard non yahoo leagues hurts a little, but as someone with a 3rd pick in a redraft league, I think I'm taking him.  I certainly prefer him to Arenado. I dont think I have the stones to bet on Yelich.  I dont want an OF non SB guy in JD Martinez, but that seems like a safe first round pick.  Only guy I think I'd consider is probably Acuna honestly, and I think I just rather have Jose Ramirez in redraft.  Wish I had the 2nd pick instead of 3rd, but I think Jose Ramirez is probably an easier pick at 3 then picking at 4 with Ramirez off.

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I've taken him at 6 and 7 in my two drafts so far (one before Lindor was hurt, one after), really no contest at those spots, although I thought about Yelich in the second one just to shake things up. With Lindor hurt I think there is plenty argument for Jose at 3. The steals set him apart from Arenado, as well as the 2b eligibility in Yahoo.

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6 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

With Lindor injured, is Jose Ramirez the consensus #3 hitter?  I think you cant really make an argument for anyone but a pitcher instead of him.  Lack of 2b in standard non yahoo leagues hurts a little, but as someone with a 3rd pick in a redraft league, I think I'm taking him.  I certainly prefer him to Arenado. I dont think I have the stones to bet on Yelich.  I dont want an OF non SB guy in JD Martinez, but that seems like a safe first round pick.  Only guy I think I'd consider is probably Acuna honestly, and I think I just rather have Jose Ramirez in redraft.  Wish I had the 2nd pick instead of 3rd, but I think Jose Ramirez is probably an easier pick at 3 then picking at 4 with Ramirez off.

 

ya.  even without lindor for the first month joram is my number 3 and yelich is 4.  im actually getting VERY bullish on Acuna and might be taking Acuna 5th just ahead of Arenado, Machado and bregman.  thats probably my top 8, sorry JDM

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On 2/11/2019 at 9:01 AM, Ecofolux said:

Found this in the comment section on Razzball, the poster made some interesting points...

 

"Not to sound heightest, but he is short. He has low bat speed. He has low EV. He has bad HR distance. Last year was a perfect storm. When you add to it that he is short and stocky, you seem to get an Altuve vibe without the batting average. Short guys who carry excess weight put a lot of pressure on their knees, and he is slow to begin with. Don’t believe me? Ask statcast. He is surrounded by catchers. Literally. His sprint speed tier has 4 catchers: John Ryan Murphy, Austin Barnes, and Romine and Contreras. Some of the names ahead of him, Bote, Gallo, Brad Miller, Conforto. Danny Jansen is nearly 100 spots ahead of him! I feel like I am preaching to the choir, but if you watch him run he is not fast. He is quick, fast twitch. I owned him nearly everywhere in 17, and a lot of places in 2018, but when you see a guy who isn’t actually fast, and doesn’t really have a lot of power getting drafted 3rd overall you run for the hills. Guys like Judge can miss a ball and hit a home run. JRam literally has to get all of it. I don’t buy his power, I don’t buy the uptake in stolen bases/ success rate."

First I will echo what everyone else has said, he doesn't strike out a lot and his BABIP was well below his career average.  His average could take a definite uptick.  Now lets go to the 2nd part, short guys who carry excess weight and he is slow to begin with.  Jose Ramirez is 5'9" and 165 lbs.  He IS shorter yes, but that's not stocky.  You think he needs all of the ball to get a HR?  What if I told him that his average exit velocity was basically the same as Realmuto, Hoskin, Grandal, Beltre, Torres, and Springer?  Now the he doesn't run fast.  His sprint speed isn't amazing by any stretch but you're being slighty shady with your stats just naming catchers.  He's also up there with Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper.  You do bring up his quick twitch which honestly is the biggest point of his speed, it's because of his amazing jumps.  His home to first is also about the same as Inciarte, Pham and even Lindor.

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16 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Was very locked into taking him 3rd until I saw this

 

 

Kind of weird, looking at Fangraphs he doesn't look bad vs the slider or curve last year.  3.9 wSL, 14.9 wSI and 0.0 wCS.  I mean it's not amazing by any stretch but it doesn't look THAT bad.

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I mean if you REALLLLY want to bash on Jose Ramirez and are worried about his power at least use the most meaningful stats.  Pulling the ball to RF as a left-handed hitter vs righties (of course he's a switch we all know this), he had 28 hrs.  Vs lefties he had a COMBINED 6 hrs.  He also never hit ONE homerun that counted as an opposite field shot in 2018.  Fangraphs marks them all as C or pull.  In fact, he had a .186 average hitting the ball the other way.  

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No one in baseball hit more FBs cumulatively that him last year. His power is by volume and approach, by having such a high contact rate. Not raw power. Honestly all this big data has created a world of overthinking from people. Even as the 3rd overall pick. You don't need him to repeat last year all the way. Did everyone just forgot 2017? Is recency bias that bad now?

 

None of data can calculate a players adaptability. That is the problem with statistical trends. Then read the past, then can't assume the player will adapt. When it comes to players of the caliber of Goldschmidt and Jose Ramirez. You kinda have to realize they didn't get to where they are w/o be able to proper play the cat and mouse game.

 

I'm sure you have a mirrad of data points from Goldy's April and May that pointed towards disaster and decline. Until it didn't.

 

You are not drafting him to be the 3rd best hitter with his SBs. SB is way more about quickness and instinct then raw speed. If it was all raw Speed. Harrison Bader would have wrecked the minors in SB totals. Yet his minors SB totals have always been bleh. All of this stuff about his raw abilities are why he was never a top prospect. We all knew this from this start. This was a player who got to where he was by his technical skills. Not his god gifted abilities.  The due is in his mid-20s. He's not 33 and not overweight.

Edited by Slatykamora
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39 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

First I will echo what everyone else has said, he doesn't strike out a lot and his BABIP was well below his career average.  His average could take a definite uptick.  Now lets go to the 2nd part, short guys who carry excess weight and he is slow to begin with.  Jose Ramirez is 5'9" and 165 lbs.  He IS shorter yes, but that's not stocky.  You think he needs all of the ball to get a HR?  What if I told him that his average exit velocity was basically the same as Realmuto, Hoskin, Grandal, Beltre, Torres, and Springer?  Now the he doesn't run fast.  His sprint speed isn't amazing by any stretch but you're being slighty shady with your stats just naming catchers.  He's also up there with Adam Eaton and Bryce Harper.  You do bring up his quick twitch which honestly is the biggest point of his speed, it's because of his amazing jumps.  His home to first is also about the same as Inciarte, Pham and even Lindor.

I didn't say these things, I just posted it from another website because I thought it was interesting hearing the other side of the conversation. I'm a JoRam dynasty owner, just looking to cover all my bases because his second half stunk and this new Indians lineup looks like garbage.

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11 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Was very locked into taking him 3rd until I saw this

 

 

Before the panic sets in, this was posted in reply to this guy.

 

Lots of noise in small sample sizes. And considering he his .318/29 HRs the season before, this looks like noise.

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Really surprised there isn't even a hint of concern in this thread that his second half might be a harbinger.  Maybe pitchers did figure something out.  Possibly not but at the very least it should bump him down to the end of the first round.

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7 minutes ago, B&F said:

Really surprised there isn't even a hint of concern in this thread that his second half might be a harbinger.  Maybe pitchers did figure something out.  Possibly not but at the very least it should bump him down to the end of the first round.

 

Who are you taking over him then at 3? I think he has the most 5 category upside after the consensus first two picks. 

 

People thinking about Acuna at 3 are wayyy overdrafting him. I don’t expect Yelich to repeat his power output from last year. I’d consider JDM and to a lesser extent Arenado over JoRam, but I think I’d still take Ramirez for the steals

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20 hours ago, B&F said:

Really surprised there isn't even a hint of concern in this thread that his second half might be a harbinger.  Maybe pitchers did figure something out.  Possibly not but at the very least it should bump him down to the end of the first round.

There’s always SOME concern, especially when we have a whole winter to pick things apart. 

Was it the shift? Was the increase FB% an attempt to hit it over the shift and/or get to 40/40? 

Pitchers sometimes figure things out. Good hitters then make adjustments. And JRam has enough of a track record as a good hitter at this point. I’m not all that worried as an owner in a keeper. You say move him down, but how many have his 5 category juice? Who doesn’t have at least one wart? 

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On 2/15/2019 at 12:48 PM, B&F said:

Really surprised there isn't even a hint of concern in this thread that his second half might be a harbinger.  Maybe pitchers did figure something out.  Possibly not but at the very least it should bump him down to the end of the first round.

I'm not concerned.  Sure, he didn't become such a well known superstar until last season, but he's been a regular and .300+ hitter the previous two seasons.  It's not like he came out of nowhere for opposing teams.

Also, the posted stats about his drop-off against breaking pitches can likely be thrown in with everything else about his latter part of the season.  Very little of it made any sense, especially when a player that hits as good as him completely tanks for a semi-extended period.  Still, I'm not really concerned about that.  In a way, I think him hitting all of the HRs in the first half was a bad thing, as it wouldn't surprise me if he was trying to hit them to keep up with J.D. Martinez regardless of whether he said he was or not (until Davis all of a sudden blew past them).  It was really frustrating obviously, but I never budged and traded him in my keeper league.

He's an extremely hard worker, so I have faith in what he's done in the past along with his work ethic that he will figure it out and go back out there and be the elite hitter he was up until his strange end of the season.  He'll probably start out awful like he did last season, but that more about MLB starting early and the weather then anything else.

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I'm not worried about JRam.  He's put up big  numbers for two seasons now.  I think the looming switch to 2nd after the Donaldson trade upset his routine.  He should play 3rd all year.   I don't see any concerns.  He's a top 10 definitely, and arguably top 5 player in fantasy. 

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