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D.J. LeMahieu 2019 Outlook

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On 1/18/2019 at 12:18 PM, cs3 said:

 

Singles and batting average, what an argument!

 

yrFExX1.png

 

Look at the wRC+ column.

What do you think the "90" at the bottom for career total means?

How many numbers do you see at or above 100 in that column?

Because I only see it once in his entire MLB career - in 2016. The last 2 years he was at 94 and 86. That means he was 4% below average and 16% below average respectively as a hitter.

 

And both Steamer and the Depth Charts predict another below average season hitting.

 

Hitting tons of singles to prop up ones batting average is just not very valuable.

All I see is a guy who is going to score 95 runs, 12 home runs, 10 steals, and a .350+ OBP with room for more. He will be going in the triple digits of drafts this year. If you wait on 2B, and pair him with a guy with some pop, a position you waited on could be more than serviceable. At his age, the lineup behind him, and the park, I don't see a repeat close to 2016 as out of the question. The dude can hit, and the dude knows how to get on base. 

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12 minutes ago, Motown_Magic said:

All I see is a guy who is going to score 95 runs, 12 home runs, 10 steals, and a .350+ OBP with room for more. He will be going in the triple digits of drafts this year. If you wait on 2B, and pair him with a guy with some pop, a position you waited on could be more than serviceable. At his age, the lineup behind him, and the park, I don't see a repeat close to 2016 as out of the question. The dude can hit, and the dude knows how to get on base. 

I'll definitely take the under on the 95 runs, but I'm not disagreeing with the rest.

My entire post was in response to someone who 1) thought it was ridiculous to have Stanton or Judge bat second, and 2) someone who thought DJ has been some fantastic hitters because of his batting average, which probably got greatly propped up by Coors.

 

 

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On 1/18/2019 at 1:18 PM, cs3 said:

 

Singles and batting average, what an argument!

 

yrFExX1.png

 

Look at the wRC+ column.

What do you think the "90" at the bottom for career total means?

How many numbers do you see at or above 100 in that column?

Because I only see it once in his entire MLB career - in 2016. The last 2 years he was at 94 and 86. That means he was 4% below average and 16% below average respectively as a hitter.

 

And both Steamer and the Depth Charts predict another below average season hitting.

 

Hitting tons of singles to prop up ones batting average is just not very valuable.

Is this really what we're doing now? Poo pooing guys that consistently hit 300 and won a batting title as below average hitters because of their weighted runs created metric? Come on man.

 

The original statement was saying hopefully he plays well enough to bat 2nd to put Judge and Stanton 3/4, which would be more beneficial for them. 

 

It would also help DJ from a Runs perspective too. If he bats 2, you have a guy that if he plays well enough, has potential to hit .300 with 100 R, which only 4 hitters accomplished last year, Betts, JDM, Yelich, Trout -- obviously not that caliber of player but from a fantasy perspective, extremely useful. 

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On 1/19/2019 at 6:42 AM, WahooManiac said:

I'll never get why people are so against your best hitter hitting second.  There's a mountain of evidence on lineup construction these days.  

 

Im hopeful this lineup starts out  DJ, Judge,  fill in the blanks from here.  

Because you drastically cut his RBI opportunities. 

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rbi-and-batting-order/

 

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9 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Because you drastically cut his RBI opportunities. 

 

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/rbi-and-batting-order/

 

You're talking fantasy,  I'm talking real life.  

 

Quote from your link

 

"This is just one of the places where the real world and fantasy have incompatible interests."

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11 minutes ago, WahooManiac said:

You're talking fantasy,  I'm talking real life.  

 

Quote from your link

 

"This is just one of the places where the real world and fantasy have incompatible interests."

Yes, in real life you want less men on base for your power hitters, forgot about that, my bad. 

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20 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

Is this really what we're doing now? Poo pooing guys that consistently hit 300 and won a batting title as below average hitters because of their weighted runs created metric? Come on man.

 

I mean, that's precisely what wRC+ was designed to do in situations like this, isn't it?  When you've got a player who's played half of his career major league games in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, you can't just say he's a .300 hitter and call it a day.  You have to try to do something to remove the role of the home park as a contributing factor when he's leaving that home park.

 

wRC+ isn't a perfect metric, but when a player has a .150 split between career home and road OPS in 3500-ish plate appearances, it's certainly preferable to just looking at career AVG.  He's probably still going to hit .280+ without help from Coors, and he'll get some of the power boost back from hitting in the Bronx, but his .362 career road SLG says he's still going to take a pretty big step back overall with this move, and that he really will be kind of a below average major league hitter in a neutral environment.

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On 1/20/2019 at 3:12 AM, this guy right here said:

Alright! Another RH bat in the lineup. Seally hope this is a sign they are going to move Stanton and sign Harper.

:lol: Why do you want them to move Stanton, just because he's a RHB? Seems silly. Judge/Stanton will dominate for the next 5+ seasons, reminiscent of Manny and Papi

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17 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I mean, that's precisely what wRC+ was designed to do in situations like this, isn't it?  When you've got a player who's played half of his career major league games in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball, you can't just say he's a .300 hitter and call it a day.  You have to try to do something to remove the role of the home park as a contributing factor when he's leaving that home park.

 

wRC+ isn't a perfect metric, but when a player has a .150 split between career home and road OPS in 3500-ish plate appearances, it's certainly preferable to just looking at career AVG.  He's probably still going to hit .280+ without help from Coors, and he'll get some of the power boost back from hitting in the Bronx, but his .362 career road SLG says he's still going to take a pretty big step back overall with this move, and that he really will be kind of a below average major league hitter in a neutral environment.

Right, I get Coors has helped him and that is THE major factor going into this year...

 

...but I still see nothing wrong with saying if he plays well enough (i.e., he can hit 300+ like he has in the past) he might find himself hitting 2nd (or 1st?). I don't think it's an unrealistic stretch and I don't think he's shown to date from his production that his potential as a player is a below average hitter when he's on his game. 

 

Bottom line, in my opinion, if he hits to his potential as he did in 2015, 2016, and 2017, before dealing with hamstring, thumb, and oblique injuries in 2018, it's possible he finds himself at the top of one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

 

Due to his lack of speed and power I'm not that thrilled for him in fantasy, but he can be useful and he could help improve the stock of Judge by pushing him to the 3 spot which brings more RBI opportunities, if he hits well enough to do so.

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6 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

...but I still see nothing wrong with saying if he plays well enough (i.e., he can hit 300+ like he has in the past) he might find himself hitting 2nd (or 1st?). I don't think it's an unrealistic stretch and I don't think he's shown to date from his production that his potential as a player is a below average hitter when he's on his game. 

 

Sure, but this is more of a conditional / predictive statement that doesn't really refute the description of him as a mediocre bat.  Sorry if I missed an earlier post that made it clear that you're talking more about what could happen if he maintains his exceptional AVG despite the home park downgrade and gets into a good lineup spot.

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42 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Sure, but this is more of a conditional / predictive statement that doesn't really refute the description of him as a mediocre bat.  Sorry if I missed an earlier post that made it clear that you're talking more about what could happen if he maintains his exceptional AVG despite the home park downgrade and gets into a good lineup spot.

At the beginning of this thread... and not mediocre, the comment was made he was a below average hitter. 

 

On 1/15/2019 at 3:19 PM, StevieStats said:

The best thing about him signing in NY is if he plays well enough to hit 2nd, we don't have to deal with Boone hitting Judge or Stanton 2nd.

 

I'm curious if the short porch in RF works against him and takes some opposite field hits away that would normally fall in for him. Solid landing spot but still a downgrade from Colorado.

 

On 1/15/2019 at 10:55 PM, cs3 said:

Why in the world would you want a below average hitter getting more at bats than Judge and Stanton??

 

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8 hours ago, StevieStats said:

Yes, in real life you want less men on base for your power hitters, forgot about that, my bad. 

Well,  the extra PAs probably have something to do with it.  You've picked a weird hill to defend here 

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On 1/22/2019 at 8:50 PM, Ecofolux said:

:lol: Why do you want them to move Stanton, just because he's a RHB? Seems silly. Judge/Stanton will dominate for the next 5+ seasons, reminiscent of Manny and Papi

He could have had 150 RBI if he made contract when there were men on third with less than two outs.  His numbers were mostly pile on. He's hit HRs drive in runs when the Yankees were already up big. Looking at season totals doesn't tell the story. You have to see/listen to the games. I would want them to just get rid of him without getting Harper. Harper's a baseball player. Loves the Yankees. Stanton's a socialite who only wants to play in cities with a night life.

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DJ really underrated in this thread. I think wrc+ overly penalizes coors players. There’s an acclimation difference going to and from coors all the time. We’ve seen matt Holliday flourish with 4 additional all star years after leaving coors...

 

last year DJL sacrificed some contact to try and lift the ball. He hit 15 HR. He’s moving to a still friendly park, yankee stadium. He’s gonna have multi eligibility and play most days. Would not surprise me whatsoever if he ends up hitting more HR this year than last and has a rebounds of sorts; and yes, outside of coors.

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7 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

He’s gonna have multi eligibility and play most days.

 

Where though? As I understand it Torres and Tulo are going to be the every day middle infielders. Makes you wonder why they signed Tulo at all

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11 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

Where though? As I understand it Torres and Tulo are going to be the every day middle infielders. Makes you wonder why they signed Tulo at all

 

Tulo will get a couple days off a week, andujar will get one, voit will get one, and miscellaneously one of the rest of the team will get some time off. He will end up playing almost every day in that OG Zobrist kind of way, I think.

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20 hours ago, street sharks said:

 

Where though? As I understand it Torres and Tulo are going to be the every day middle infielders. Makes you wonder why they signed Tulo at all

 

Yanks have said they're going to give Tulo a bunch of days off to start the season due to all the time he's missed in recent years. They'll slide Gleyber over to SS and put LeMahieu at 2B on those days. He's also going to be the backup 1B for either Voit/Bird and he'll play 3B when Sabathia pitches as the Yankees don't want Andujar over there on those days due to the heat maps that show BIP off Sabathia are disproportionately on the ground and to the third base side.

Not even factoring in the very high chance that Tulo stinks and the Yankees decide they need to cut bait or at least relegate him to a part-time role very early on. 

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